TESLA Stock - Are TSLA Bulls Back?

Summary

In this Tesla update video, the host discusses Tesla's recent delivery numbers, which were better than expected, causing the stock to rise by 5%. The analysis delves into Tesla’s stock behavior, focusing on key technical indicators, such as the monthly and daily charts. The host highlights the importance of price action around the $315-$320 zone, which could signal a bullish reversal if reclaimed by the bulls. Additionally, the video covers various stock movements, including a look at other companies like Apple and Starbucks, offering a detailed market analysis for Tesla's future performance.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla's delivery numbers were surprisingly better than expected, leading to a 5% increase in stock price.
• 😀 The market reaction shows that Tesla's performance wasn't as bad as anticipated, despite lower delivery expectations.
• 😀 The monthly chart is showing tight price action, suggesting Tesla might stay within the 270-350 range for July, potentially leading to a breakout or breakdown.
• 😀 Tesla's recent movement on the daily chart has been influenced by a major catalyst, which allowed the stock to rebound after a breakdown.
• 😀 The 200-day moving average is a key level, and Tesla closed just above it, signaling potential bullish momentum if the stock maintains its position above this level.
• 😀 The 315-320 price range is critical, with bulls needing to hold this zone for further upside potential, and bears trying to defend it to avoid further price declines.
• 😀 A gap-up or gap-down opening could act as a cheat code for the stock to break through critical resistance or support levels.
• 😀 The exponential moving averages (9 and 21) need to stay above the 50-day moving average to maintain bullish momentum; a cross below would signal a potential bearish reversal.
• 😀 The MACD is showing higher lows, indicating a potential trend reversal and providing hope for a bullish turnaround if the stock doesn't make new lower lows.
• 😀 The key levels to monitor are 315-320 for bullish or bearish continuation. If the bulls reclaim this level, the stock could see significant upward movement.

Q & A

What was the general market reaction to Tesla's latest delivery numbers?

Tesla's delivery numbers were surprisingly better than expected, leading to a 5% increase in the stock price. Many analysts and market participants had anticipated lower delivery numbers, but Tesla's results exceeded those predictions.

How did the monthly chart for Tesla look after June, and what does it suggest?

The monthly chart shows that Tesla's price action is becoming very tight, with July opening near the middle of June's range. This tight price action suggests that Tesla might stay within a range of $270 to $350 for some time, with the potential for a breakout in either direction.

What does the comparison between Tesla and Apple's price action reveal?

The price action on Tesla's monthly chart looks similar to Apple's price movement on the weekly chart. Both show tightening patterns, with the potential for a breakout, similar to how Apple's stock surged after a period of tight consolidation.

What does the speaker mean by 'false breakouts' and how do they relate to Tesla's situation?

A false breakout occurs when the price breaks through a level but fails to maintain the move, quickly reversing. In Tesla's case, there was a false breakdown below a trend line, but the stock rebounded, suggesting that a breakout could still happen, depending on the next price action.

What is the significance of the 200-day moving average for Tesla's stock?

Tesla's stock closed above the 200-day moving average, which is considered a key level for trend analysis. While the closure was not strong, it suggests that the stock may have potential for further upside if it can maintain above this moving average.

What levels are crucial for Tesla's stock movement in the short term?

The most important levels for Tesla right now are around $315 to $320. If the stock can reclaim and hold this range, it could lead to a reversal and move higher. Conversely, if the bears successfully defend this range, the stock may continue to decline.

How does the speaker use the concept of 'structure' in analyzing Tesla's stock?

The speaker emphasizes the importance of maintaining key support and resistance levels. The 'structure' refers to how the stock reacts at these levels, such as whether a break above or below them leads to a significant price movement. In Tesla's case, the $315 to $320 zone is a critical area for both bulls and bears.

What is the role of the exponential moving averages (EMAs) in Tesla's price action?

The speaker notes that the EMAs, specifically the 9 and 21 EMAs, are potentially acting as resistance for Tesla. If these EMAs cross to the bearish side, it could signal further downside. The speaker wants to see Tesla act quickly to avoid the EMAs crossing to the downside, ideally by early next week.

What is the significance of the MACD indicator in predicting Tesla's price movement?

The MACD indicator is used by the speaker to spot potential reversals in trend. The speaker highlights the importance of observing higher lows on the MACD histogram, which can signal a bottoming process or a reversal to the upside if Tesla maintains this pattern.

Why does the speaker consider the $315 to $320 range critical for Tesla's stock?

The $315 to $320 range is crucial because it acts as both a potential support and resistance zone. If the stock can reclaim this area, it would suggest that the bulls are in control and could push the stock higher. If the bears defend this level successfully, it could lead to further downside movement for Tesla.