TESLA Stock - Huge Move Coming Soon

Summary

In this Tesla stock update video, the creator discusses the stock's performance and market trends. The focus is on technical analysis, exploring both bullish and bearish scenarios for Tesla's future. Key points include potential price movements based on support levels around $307–$310, resistance at $333–$350, and the possibility of a major bear trap or a rebound. With Tesla's upcoming delivery numbers as a significant factor, the video speculates on the market's reaction and discusses options flow, potential political implications of Elon Musk's tweets, and a potential liquidity sweep scenario. The video concludes with a call to monitor developments closely.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla stock is experiencing a painful decline, closing down nearly 2% at around $317 per share.
• 😀 The main focus is on upcoming Tesla delivery numbers, which are expected to be released on Wednesday, and how they could impact the stock.
• 😀 There's speculation about a new, cheaper Tesla model (Model Q), but it's not available yet, leaving uncertainty around its release.
• 😀 The stock's technicals suggest it could either bounce or continue to fall, depending on market conditions and key price levels.
• 😀 The daily chart shows a rising channel with potential support around $307–$310, suggesting a possible bounce if it holds.
• 😀 On the bullish side, Tesla's stock could rally if it breaks through resistance levels, particularly at $333 and $350, potentially pushing toward $400.
• 😀 On the bearish side, if the stock loses support near $307, it could fall towards the $270 range, possibly even retesting lows around $230.
• 😀 A significant concern is a potential long-term decline to around $170–$180 if the stock breaks key support levels.
• 😀 The market's reaction to the delivery numbers is uncertain, as even with bad news, Tesla's stock could react positively, similar to previous earnings reports.
• 😀 In the shorter term, the 4-hour chart suggests that Tesla might experience a 'liquidity sweep,' where retail investors' stop-loss orders are triggered, potentially creating a reversal in the stock's price movement.
• 😀 Despite the negative outlook, the stock's current position near key support levels (around $307) and an oversold signal on the 4-hour chart could indicate a risk/reward setup for a bounce.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is an analysis of Tesla's stock performance, including the latest market movements, technical analysis, and predictions about the stock's future.

Why is the upcoming delivery report for Tesla so important?

The delivery report is crucial because it will give an indication of how Tesla's sales are performing, potentially affecting the stock price. It's seen as a mini earnings report and could impact investor sentiment significantly.

What is the 'bullish scenario' mentioned in the video?

The bullish scenario suggests that Tesla's stock could bounce back if it reaches the key support levels around $307–$310. If this support holds, it could lead to a rally towards resistance zones like $333, $350, and even $400.

What is the 'bearish scenario' and what could trigger it?

The bearish scenario involves the stock failing to hold the support levels around $307–$310. If this happens, it could lead to a drop towards lower price levels, such as $270, with a potential further breakdown to even lower prices.

What is the significance of the 'green line' on the chart?

The 'green line' represents a long-term support level that Tesla's stock has bounced off several times in the past. If Tesla drops to this line (around $170–$180), it could potentially signal a major buying opportunity due to previous significant bounces.

How does the SMI (Stochastic Momentum Indicator) impact the analysis?

The SMI is an important indicator in the analysis. When the SMI is at the bottom of its range, as it currently is, it often signals that the stock could be nearing a bottom and could experience a bounce, providing a potential risk-reward opportunity for traders.

What is a 'liquidity sweep' and how does it affect Tesla's stock?

A liquidity sweep occurs when the market forces retail traders to sell by triggering their stop orders, which creates a large amount of liquidity. This liquidity is then used by institutional investors to make purchases, often leading to a sharp reversal in stock price.

What are the implications of the delivery numbers being worse than expected?

If the delivery numbers are worse than expected, it could lead to a drop in the stock price initially. However, if the market has already priced in the negative news, Tesla’s stock could still bounce back, similar to how the stock reacted after previous earnings reports.

What role do technical analysis levels like $307 and $333 play in predicting Tesla's stock movement?

These levels are critical support and resistance zones in Tesla's stock chart. A drop below $307 could signal further downside, while breaking above $333 could unlock higher price targets, potentially driving the stock toward $350 or even $400.

How does Elon Musk’s political involvement potentially affect Tesla’s stock?

Elon Musk's political involvement could negatively affect Tesla’s stock, especially if it causes distraction or alienates certain investor groups. The video suggests that if Musk becomes too entangled in politics, it could have a detrimental impact on Tesla's market perception and stock performance.