TESLA Stock - Is This Bearish For TSLA?
Summary
TLDRIn this Tesla update video, the host discusses Tesla's stock performance, noting a 3.2% drop and a closing price of $223. He highlights bearish signals, including a stochastic bearish crossover and a break below recent trading ranges, suggesting potential downside continuation to the low 200s. The video also touches on low trading volume and technical indicators like the MACD and BX trender, which remain bearish. Despite these concerns, the host emphasizes the importance of capturing the 214-215 level for a bullish outlook and mentions the impact of Nvidia's earnings on the market.
Takeaways
- π Tesla's stock closed the day down about 3.2%, which is considered underperformance compared to the market.
- π The speaker is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial advice; the video is for informational purposes only.
- π The speaker has a membership section on YouTube for $2.99, offering daily thoughts, updates, technical analysis, and more on Tesla stock.
- π The stochastic indicator has shown a bearish crossover, signaling a potential decrease in bullish momentum for Tesla's stock.
- π There is concern over the recent trading pattern, with an inside day candle suggesting a continuation of the current trend direction.
- π A break below the recent trading range indicates bearish sentiment and potential weakness in Tesla's stock price.
- π Low trading volume in the current price range could lead to quick price movements, especially if the stock moves to the lower 200s.
- π The speaker anticipates potential support in the very low 200s range, with a worst-case scenario of dropping to the 180s to 170s.
- π The speaker is bearish on Tesla's stock until it can recapture the 214 to 215 price level, which has acted as both support and resistance.
- π The speaker mentions that a retest of the breakdown at the 214 to 215 level is occurring, and a successful retest could lead to further downside movement.
- πΌ Options flow for Tesla shows a significant amount of bearish options, with many puts coming in towards the end of the trading day.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video script?
-The main topic of the video script is a Tesla update, discussing the company's stock performance, market trends, and potential future movements.
What does the speaker mention about Nvidia's role in the stock market?
-The speaker refers to Nvidia as being 'the new Apple of the stock market,' suggesting that its earnings reports could significantly influence the overall market direction.
What is the speaker's stance on providing financial advice?
-The speaker clarifies that they are not a financial adviser and that the content of the video is not financial advice.
What is the speaker's health condition as mentioned in the script?
-The speaker mentions being a 'little bit sick,' which is indicated by a 'scuffy' voice.
How did Tesla's stock perform on the day discussed in the script?
-Tesla's stock closed the day down about 3.2%, closing at $223, which is considered an underperformance compared to the market.
What technical analysis tool does the speaker emphasize in the script?
-The speaker emphasizes the importance of the stochastic indicator in technical analysis, noting its effectiveness in gauging bullish and bearish momentum.
What is the significance of the bearish stochastic crossover mentioned in the script?
-The bearish stochastic crossover indicates that the bullish momentum has decreased and the bearish momentum is starting to take over, which is a sign of potential downward price movement.
What does the speaker mean by 'inside day candle' and its implications?
-An 'inside day candle' is a candlestick pattern where the price range of one day is completely within the range of the previous day. A break above or below this range typically indicates a continued move in that direction.
What is the speaker's concern regarding Tesla's trading volume?
-The speaker is concerned about the low trading volume, which could lead to quick price movements, especially if the stock price moves down to the low 200s.
What is the speaker's view on the potential support level for Tesla's stock?
-The speaker expects strong support to kick in at the very low 200s range, and if the price drops below 200, the worst-case scenario would be in the 180s to 170s range.
What is the speaker's current outlook on Tesla's stock based on the recent price action?
-The speaker leans bearish on Tesla's stock, expecting a continued move to the downside to the very low 200s range, based on the recent price action and the bearish indicators discussed.
What is the significance of the 214-215 price level mentioned in the script?
-The 214-215 price level is significant as it acted as both resistance and support in the past. The speaker suggests that recapturing this level would remove some of the current bearish perspective.
What does the speaker say about the options flow for Tesla?
-The speaker mentions that Tesla has about 12 billion in bearish options flow, with a significant number of puts coming in towards the end of the day, but overall, it's not considered extraordinary.
Outlines
π Tesla Market Update and Analysis
The speaker begins by welcoming viewers to a Tesla update video, focusing on Tesla's stock performance and market trends. They mention the significance of Nvidia's earnings report, likening it to Apple's impact on the market. The speaker advises viewers that the content is not financial advice and promotes their YouTube membership for detailed analysis on Tesla stock. They discuss Tesla's stock performance, noting a 3.2% drop and underperformance relative to the market. The daily chart analysis highlights a bearish stochastic crossover, indicating a potential shift from bullish to bearish momentum. The speaker also points out bearish signs such as a break below Friday's trading range and low trading volume, suggesting potential for a quick price drop. They anticipate further downside movement to the $207-$203 range if the current bearish trend continues.
π Analyzing Bearish Indicators and Support Levels
In this paragraph, the speaker delves deeper into bearish indicators on Tesla's 1-hour chart. They discuss the potential bearish implications of a trend line break, comparing different ways of drawing trend lines and their reliability. The speaker notes that while the trend line has held in the past, a recent break below it is concerning. They also mention the importance of the $214-$215 level, suggesting that a recapture of this range could alleviate bearish sentiment. The speaker expresses a bearish outlook until this level is retaken, anticipating a continued move to the low $200s if the current trend persists. They also touch on options flow, noting a significant amount of bearish options activity but nothing extreme. The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of the $214-$215 level for a potential bullish reversal and their overall bearish stance based on current price action.
π Signing Off with a Forward Look
The final paragraph is a brief sign-off from the speaker, indicating the end of the video. They remind viewers to like the video if they found it enjoyable and express anticipation for the next video, promising more analysis and updates. This paragraph serves as a closure to the video, summarizing the speaker's overall bearish sentiment and looking forward to providing further insights in upcoming videos.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Tesla
π‘Market
π‘Stochastic
π‘Bearish
π‘Inside Day Candle
π‘Volume
π‘Support and Resistance
π‘MACD
π‘Options Flow
π‘Bullish
π‘Nvidia
Highlights
Introduction to a new Tesla update video discussing market trends and expectations for an important week with Nvidia earnings.
Emphasis on the video being for informational purposes and not financial advice.
Announcement of the YouTube membership section with access to daily thoughts, post updates, technical analysis, and options flow for $2.99.
Tesla's stock performance, closing the day down 3.2% at $223, underperforming compared to the market.
Discussion of bearish signs and technical analysis indicators such as the stochastic bearish crossover.
Analysis of daily chart patterns, including the significance of inside day candles and their implications for future price movements.
Concern over the potential downside continuation to the price range of $207 to $203 based on current trends.
Observation of low trading volume and its potential impact on price action, suggesting quick price movements through low volume areas.
Mention of the 1-hour chart technical indicators, including the bearish MACD and the importance of the uptrend line from the lows.
Concern about the breakdown below the uptrend wedge and its implications for the bullish perspective.
Expectation of strong support in the very low $200s range based on historical volume profile analysis.
Discussion of the potential worst-case scenario with a drop to the 180s to 170s range and the significant support expected there.
Importance of recapturing the 214 to 215 price level to regain bullish confidence.
Analysis of options flow, with a focus on the bearish options and the significance of the puts towards the end of the day.
Mention of a 4.7 million call on Cheddar flow, indicating long-term bullish sentiment despite being less relevant for short-term analysis.
Conclusion summarizing the current bearish lean based on recent price action and the importance of adapting to market changes.
Transcripts
hey guys what is up and welcome to a new
Tesla update video so today as per usual
let's go over Tesla's talk let's go over
the market and let's talk about what is
happening and what we can expect moving
into a pretty potentially important week
honestly with Nvidia earnings Nvidia of
course being pretty much like the new
Apple of the stock market so that could
definitely dictate quite a lot moving
forward with this Market in general but
ladies and jump on let's jump into jump
into it rather um if you enjoyed the
video don't forget to hit that like
button this is non Financial advice I am
not a financial adviser and of course my
membership section on YouTube is live
that link is down below for just $2.99
you can access at all ma Day thoughts
post updates techn analysis options flow
Etc on Tesa stock and sometimes just
General market things as well um yeah
link is below if you're interested check
it check it out if you can I'm still a
little bit sick if you can hear about my
voice it's a little scuffy but
nonetheless Tesla closing the day down
about 3.2% closing at
$223 uh2 which unfortunately compared to
the market is a bit of an
underperformance
um but it kind of is what it is right
now let's talk about this right there's
definitely some signs of caution here
right now it's obviously not the worst
thing in the world right we didn't drop
like you know I mean 3% is a decent
amount but for Tesla it's just kind of
another day really but let's go over the
bearish things first right there are
definitely some signs of concern that I
have here right now um that I do want to
talk about first the daily chart I want
to talk about is going to be uh well we
talked yesterday not yesterday Friday
about the stochastic right I said how
there's a lot of things that are looking
pretty good for the for for the daily
chart and there are still some good
signs but you know the stochastic has
cross bearish and it's obviously
continued to cross bearish and it's
still cross bearish right so and again I
personally really put a lot of emphasis
on the stochastic it's not perfect by
any means but it's pretty damn good in
my opinion right and in this case you
know this indicator is showing a bearish
crossover it's showing that the bullish
momentum has definitely dried up right
and the bearish momentum is starting to
you know slowly kick in and take over so
that's something that you definitely
don't want to completely ignore right
now you know we'll go over the bullish
things after but the other potentially
bearish thing that I don't like right
now on the daily chart is well
yesterday's Friday's candle and
Thursday's candle right we had a massive
Thursday a red candle Friday was like a
small kind of you know green or white
whatever candle that was pretty much
encapsulated right essentially an inside
Day candle usually with inside day
candles what you do is you take the uh
the top of the range so in this case you
know the top of the range would have
been up here and then you take the
bottom of the range which was pretty
much this line that I have down here
right right here right pretty much right
around here right so pretty much you
know what is this uh 221 and A2 roughly
and about like what just we'll say 114
roughly right the way inside da candles
work is a break above or below that
range usually indicates a continued move
in that respective Direction so in this
case because we broke below Friday's
range of about 214 that's bearish right
that is definitely a bit of a bearish
sign it shows weakness and that's not
what the Bulls want to be seeing it's
not what I want to be seeing personally
as a bull of course you know and it
definitely has some signs of concern now
we obviously after breaking it fell well
below that right from 214 all the way
down to pretty much entering barely than
210 so obviously we dropped a decent
amount right that's a that's a fair drop
even post block uh breaking it even
considering we already had that initial
drop from the today's high so but the
fact that we close below is not ideal
right the fact that we're breaking below
this range is not ideal so this to me
signals the fact that especially with
the stochastic bearish cross over that
there could still be more downside
continuation to about this 207 to as low
as a 203 uh range right that could be a
very real possibility another thing
that's a little concerning is the fact
that there is some low volume coming in
here if I zoom out right here you can
see right the volume in this area is
pretty low and guess where we got
rejector we got rejected pretty much
right where we had this little spike in
volume and now we're entering you can
see right here some low volume area
right this kind of range of about 215 to
us highs about 220 which is what we've
been trading for the past like week or
so right you know bit of a spike in
volume you can see here right massive
spikes down here massive spikes up here
right 260 250 is massive Spike right
pretty much like 170 180s massive spikes
and volume like these are massive areas
of support and resistance or I guess
resistance and support respectively but
you know we do have some small spikes in
volume profile over here right the range
we just traded at which we're pretty
much potentially getting rejected at but
we have a small little volume Spike all
the way down here pretty much right at
$200 per share as well but the reason I
bring this up is because you can see
between that their volume very much
diminishes like very very very low
volume in between pretty much where we
are now all the way down to the very low
200s very low volume so if it happens
and if we do move down to the low like
very low 200s
I'd expect it to be quick I would expect
it to be quick because usually when you
go through low volume areas like this
you expect price action to be pretty
Snappy right pretty damn quick because
there's again not a lot of volume to
support um you know the the price right
so it just kind of flushes down or up
really in this case it will be a down
flush obviously if we mooved back down
to let's say 202 203 204 5 something
somewhere around that you know low low
200 range so that's another concern I
have right I don't like that and the
final concern I have for the bearish
side is the fact that well you know the
1 hour obviously CLC still crossed over
to the bearish side right we have the BX
trender still looking actually making a
higher low but you know still a red um a
band for instance right um the macd is
still bearish right so there are
definitely still signs of concern there
but the main one is the fact that we had
this little you know wedge if you will
that we were forming all the way from
these lows all the way over here at
about 190 right and you know we've
pretty much held this this uptrend every
single time now you can make an argument
the fact that you can take this line and
again this is why I'm not always a big
fan of trend lines because they're
subjective and you can connect the dots
like this and this actually lines up to
the bare tips of these little um uh
pivot Points if you will right and it
connects actually to where we
potentially did actually find a bounce
today so that is one aspect you can look
at it that's potentially a valid uh
aspect but you know the other way to
look at it is well it's like this
instead we never invalidated any candle
we never actually went below any of
these candles over here right it was
just Wicks we bounced off of it every
single time we even it even connects cuz
the issue is if if you bring it down to
this example that I just had it doesn't
connect to this Wick that we did
actually bounce pretty pretty decently
off of it too right massive Gap up into
a massive rally right from 211 to like
what 220 it's a you know decent rally in
one day but this perspective connects
this Wick as well this candle right on
the 1 hour chart doesn't uh uh doesn't
um what's the word I'm looking for I
literally just said it it doesn't
invalidate any of these candles back
here and um it pretty much makes sense
with potentially what we have moving
forward which is you know we came down M
had a massive bounce off the trend line
again came back down to it this morning
actually held it for for a few hours you
can see here until we ultimately gave in
came back down right all the way to
about 211 we'll say and then we are so
far seemingly coming back up to retest
that breakdown that's what it seems like
we're doing right now we're coming back
up retesting that breakdown and assuming
this retest is successful you would
expect a continued follow through pretty
much down to the real major demand Zone
which again I think will be the very
very low 200s could be as low as could
be as high as 207 high as 207 could be
as low as about $200 per share but that
General range I do expect some pretty
strong support to start kicking in and
the worst case scenario if we do somehow
drop below 200 would be pretty much 180s
to 170s I'd be shocked if we go lower
than that there's an insane amount of
volume profile even more volume profile
like I just mentioned sitting there than
the volume profile that rejected us all
the way back up here around the 250s and
260s right you can see massive area of
volume profile huge huge huge volume
profile area so if we do come back down
here which we did actually technically
already when the market crashed on the
Yen crisis if you will right we did
actually come down there we did bounce
pretty substantially off of it so if we
do add up somehow coming back all the
way down to this like 180s to 170s range
again I'd be I'd expect some pretty
tremendous support again it's a massive
if I'm not saying we will but just you
know if we do right but again the thing
that's still concerning me again you
know break down below this wedge
essentially right I don't like the fact
that we broke down below this wedge
that's you know not ideal also we lost
the 214 215 level so the only way for me
to really start getting confidence back
in from a bullish perspective is to
recapture 214 215 if we can recapture
those levels that to me would be bullish
I well not necessarily bullish but it
definitely removed a lot of this bearish
perspective that I have right now based
on today's price action right if we
recapture 214 to 2115 because again keep
in mind right we had this massive fall
this morning right and then we kind of
bounced off the trend line but what did
we do we came right back into that 214
to 215 range on these kind of candles
right here and what do we do we rejected
and came down even lower that's not a
good sign we're so far actually showing
some rejection from this 214 to 2115
range already right that's why I want to
recapture it it's very important right
so you can see back here right how it
acted as a resistance and as a support
and even right here it acted as a
support as well right so definitely want
to recapture that range in my opinion
again this is just my opinion this is
just what I am personally viewing I
could be completely wrong want to make
that very clear I don't have a crystal
ball I'm not like you know some you know
guy that knows everything I can be wrong
I could be completely wrong but as of
right now until we recapture at least
214 to 215 I I do lean bearish I don't
like the some situations that are
setting up here and I would expect a
continued move to the downside to the
low 200s like very low 200s as of right
now obviously things change we adapt but
that's what I see right now and that's
kind of what I am expecting as of right
now as well so yeah in terms of options
flow uh Testa you know has about almost
we'll say 12 billion I'm billion million
in uh bearish options flow so nothing
too crazy again you know it's something
but it's nothing crazy I mean compared
to Nvidia for instance 55 million right
but in terms of options flow again a lot
of puts came in towards the end of the
day you can see here a decent amount of
puts towards the end of the day but
throughout the day pretty slow options
day for the most part to be completely
honest nothing to really write home
about nothing completely substantial
came out at least in my opinion so you
know it is what it is um we'll take a
look we can take a look at it over here
as well maybe you know maybe cheddar
flow spotted something that you know
they didn't but uh 4.7 million call that
actually came in on ched flow over here
but it's a leap I don't really look at
leaps too much we know the Bulls are
bullish very long term but we care more
about the next you know few weeks to few
months that's what we care about so yeah
anyway that's kind of what I'm seeing
for Tesla ladies and gentlemen so for
usual if you enjoyed don't forget to hit
that like button and I'll see you for
the next one peace
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