TESLA Stock - Bullish Pattern Developing?

Summary

In this Tesla stock update video, the presenter discusses recent market movements, focusing on Tesla's stock performance. They highlight key technical indicators, such as Fibonacci levels, SMI, and MACD, as well as the current bullish setup, including potential patterns forming. The video also touches on the broader market trends and seasonality factors that could impact Tesla in the near future. The presenter shares insights on Tesla's price action, resistance zones, and what to expect in the short term, especially regarding potential price movements and options flow.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla stock had a flat close, down about 1% to 1.5%, finishing around $321 per share.
• 😀 A short-term analysis shows a potential bull flag setting up, with key support levels around $314-$320.
• 😀 The SMI indicator suggests that a further downside move is possible, potentially bringing Tesla to the $314-$315 range.
• 😀 Despite a recent drop, Tesla’s exponential moving averages (EMAs) and MACD are still showing bullish momentum, giving the bulls a slight upper hand.
• 😀 The current market action suggests a 'chop' session, with little momentum, but a potential breakout within a large pennant pattern on the daily chart.
• 😀 A test of the high $330s, possibly touching $340, could be the next move if the bullish trend continues.
• 😀 The larger, longer-term picture shows a pennant formation, which could lead to a breakout after more consolidation.
• 😀 The weekly chart indicates a bullish setup on EMAs, but the MACD hasn’t fully flipped bullish yet, which makes the weekly outlook slightly less reassuring.
• 😀 There is a possibility of a short-term sell-off to around $314, followed by a potential push higher to retest resistance levels.
• 😀 Seasonality factors suggest that early August could be weaker for the markets, though the impact on Tesla is uncertain.
• 😀 The options market shows a relatively balanced sentiment between bulls and bears, with mixed flow in the morning and afternoon, indicating indecision.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is a detailed technical analysis of Tesla stock, discussing its recent performance, market trends, and what can be expected moving forward.

What is the current performance of Tesla stock as mentioned in the video?

Tesla stock closed flat for the day, with a slight decline of about 1 to 1.5%, finishing at around $321 per share, which is underperforming compared to the broader market.

What short-term technical pattern is the speaker observing in Tesla stock?

The speaker is observing the formation of a potential bullish pattern, specifically a larger bull flag setup, as well as a cooling down of the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI).

What level of Tesla stock is the speaker monitoring for potential support?

The speaker is monitoring the $314-$320 range as key support levels for Tesla stock. A drop below $312-$313 would be a critical level to watch.

What is the significance of the SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) in this analysis?

The SMI is used to gauge momentum. The speaker notes that when the SMI is near the top of its range, it signals a potential for sideways action or limited upside. A drop in the SMI suggests further downside might be possible.

What does the speaker expect in terms of Tesla's price movement in the near future?

The speaker expects Tesla stock to potentially experience a small sell-off, bringing the price to around $314-$315, before seeing a possible rally back towards the high $330s or $340, if a larger bull flag pattern plays out.

What is the broader technical setup in Tesla stock, according to the speaker?

Tesla stock is currently within a large daily pennant pattern, with the stock zigzagging inside the pennant before a true breakout eventually happens. The bulls have a slight upper hand due to the overall bullish indicators like the exponential moving averages (EMAs) and MACD.

What role do the exponential moving averages (EMAs) and MACD play in this analysis?

The EMAs and MACD are momentum indicators. The speaker notes that despite the chop in price action, the EMAs are still bullish and the MACD has crossed bullish, which gives a slight advantage to the bulls in the short term.

What concerns does the speaker express about the weekly chart of Tesla stock?

On the weekly chart, the speaker notes that while the stock is forming a large pennant, there are concerns regarding the MACD not fully flipping bullish, and the SMI still pointing downward, indicating the weekly chart isn't as bullish as the daily chart.

What seasonality trends does the speaker mention, and how might they affect Tesla stock?

The speaker mentions that the market generally enters a weaker seasonality in early August, which could affect Tesla stock. However, the speaker suggests that Tesla's behavior might differ from the broader market due to its specific trends.