Beyond The Box Episode 1: Unpacking changes to global supply chains

Summary

在这段视频脚本中，讨论了COVID-19如何扰乱全球贸易以及供应链和采购模式正在如何变化。疫情导致消费者需求激增，供应链面临巨大压力。节目邀请了领先的航运专家Lars Jensen和马士基亚太区运营负责人Anders Carlsson，探讨了制造业如何开始从中国转移，以及疫情如何加速了这一趋势。讨论强调了东南亚和印度的基础设施和港口能力与中国市场相比仍有较大差距，并且指出了“中国+1”战略的重要性，即企业不仅仅依赖中国，而是寻找其他亚洲国家作为替代或补充的生产基地。此外，还提到了近岸外包的概念，即企业考虑将部分生产更接近本国市场。整个讨论强调了供应链多样化和风险分散的必要性，以及未来几年东南亚和印度在提升基础设施和港口能力方面的挑战。

Takeaways

• 🌐 **全球贸易受疫情影响**：疫情期间，消费者需求激增，导致供应链超负荷运转，出现了集装箱船只滞留、零售业货架空缺等问题。
• 📈 **需求增长挑战供应链**：美国洛杉矶港和中国宁波港因拥堵和疫情导致等待时间超过六周，供应链面临前所未有的压力。
• 🔄 **供应链策略转变**：67%的零售商和制造商表示，供应链中断改变了他们的原材料采购方式，供应链问题成为全球公司高层关注的焦点。
• 🚢 **航运专家的观点**：Lachinson和Anna Sophie Isel讨论了疫情前已经开始的制造业从中国转移的趋势，以及疫情如何加速了这一发展。
• 🇨🇳 **中国+1战略**：企业开始寻求中国以外的生产地以分散风险，这被称为“中国+1”战略，强调供应链多样化以减少对单一国家的依赖。
• 🏭 **近岸生产**：一些公司考虑将部分生产移至更靠近本土市场的地区，即近岸生产，特别是在疫情初期防护装备短缺时。
• 🚧 **基础设施挑战**：东南亚和印度的港口及内陆基础设施尚未准备好应对大规模生产转移，需要大量投资以避免新的瓶颈问题。
• 📊 **港口能力差距**：中国拥有世界上最大的港口之一，东南亚和印度要增加产量以匹配中国的减少，需要巨大的基础设施和生产能力提升。
• 🚂 **铁路和内陆基础设施**：印度等国家正在改善其物流基础设施，包括铁路连接和港口效率，以支持制造业的增长。
• 🚧 **投资与生态系统**：整个生态系统，包括政府、物流提供商和码头运营商，都需要投资以支持供应链的转变和增长。
• 🌟 **未来展望**：供应链的未来将是一个缓慢而渐进的过程，需要时间来建立基础设施和生产能力，同时解决短期和长期的问题。

Q & A

新冠疫情如何影响了全球贸易？

新冠疫情导致全球贸易受到严重冲击，出现了集装箱船只滞留、零售业货架空缺等现象。由于消费者需求激增，供应链能力被推向极限，导致供应链和采购模式发生了变化。

疫情期间，哪些产品的需求出现了显著增长？

疫情期间，电子产品、健身设备、书籍、化妆品、服装、食品杂货以及建筑材料、园艺用品、工具和油漆等产品的需求显著增长。

供应链中断对零售商和制造商产生了哪些影响？

供应链中断导致零售商和制造商改变了他们的采购方式。67%的零售商和制造商表示，供应链中断已经改变了他们的材料来源方式。

什么是“中国+1”战略？

“中国+1”战略是指企业不仅仅依赖中国作为唯一的生产地，而是寻找其他国家作为替代或补充的生产地，以降低风险并提高供应链的灵活性。

近岸生产（Near Shoring）是什么？

近岸生产是指企业将部分生产活动迁移至离本土市场更近的地区，这样做可以减少对远距离供应链的依赖，提高应对突发事件的能力。

东南亚和印度在成为世界工厂方面面临哪些挑战？

东南亚和印度在成为世界工厂方面面临的挑战包括港口和内陆基础设施不足、劳动力成本上升、环境法规的挑战以及需要大量投资来提升基础设施。

为什么说从中国大规模转移生产基地到其他国家是不现实的？

因为中国及其邻近国家在过去几十年中一直是世界工厂，拥有完善的基础设施、劳动力市场和法规体系。将生产从中国和亚洲大规模转移回欧洲和美国将是一个成本高昂且耗时的过程。

为什么说供应链的灵活性对于企业来说越来越重要？

供应链的灵活性可以帮助企业应对突发事件，如疫情导致的供应链中断。通过分散生产基地和采购来源，企业可以降低对单一市场的依赖，从而减少风险。

当前全球供应链面临的最大挑战是什么？

当前全球供应链面临的最大挑战包括港口基础设施的限制、船舶运力的不平衡、环境法规对航运速度的影响，以及需要提升东南亚和印度的生产能力和港口吞吐量。

为什么说印度在物流基础设施建设方面具有潜力？

印度在物流基础设施建设方面具有潜力，因为印度政府已经开始采取措施提高港口效率，比如取消了一些监管措施，并且开始提供更多的直达服务。随着这些变化，预计印度将在未来几年内变得更好地连接国内外市场。

企业如何通过投资基础设施来支持供应链的去风险化？

企业可以通过在关键地区投资建设铁路、公路和其他基础设施来支持供应链的去风险化。这不仅可以提高生产效率，还可以减少对特定地区的依赖，从而提高供应链的整体韧性。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 全球贸易的疫情冲击与供应链变革

第一段主要描述了新冠疫情期间全球贸易所面临的挑战，包括集装箱滞留、船舶在世界最大港口外等待数周、零售业货架空缺等问题。这些问题是由于消费者需求激增，供应链能力被推向极限。随着疫情成为过去，本段讨论了全球贸易的永久变化和解决模式的转变，特别关注了东南亚和中国，即世界工厂的变化。

05:02

📈 供应链中断与采购模式的转变

第二段强调了供应链中断如何成为全球公司高层关注的焦点，以及贸易壁垒和地缘政治紧张如何加速了供应链多样化的趋势。讨论了制造成本上升、寻找替代生产地的成本角度，以及中美贸易紧张关系对供应链决策的影响。此外，还提到了“中国+1”战略，即企业不仅仅依赖中国，而是寻找其他亚洲国家的替代生产地以分散风险。

10:03

🚢 港口基础设施与航运业的挑战

第三段深入探讨了将生产从中国转移到其他国家所面临的物流挑战，特别是港口和内陆基础设施的局限性。讨论了东南亚国家在吸引制造业方面的潜力和挑战，以及这些国家在港口基础设施和物流能力方面与中国的差距。同时，也提到了航运公司面临的挑战，包括船舶老化、环境法规对航运速度的影响，以及对小型高效船舶的需求。

15:04

🔄 供应链的未来趋势与投资

第四段讨论了供应链的未来趋势，包括印度在物流基础设施建设方面的积极进展，以及直接服务的增加。强调了整个生态系统，包括政府、物流提供商和码头运营商，需要共同投资以支持供应链的扩张。同时，也提到了近岸外包的概念，以及物流公司可能需要在政府介入之前自行投资基础设施。

Keywords

💡全球贸易

全球贸易指的是不同国家和地区之间进行的商品和服务的交换。在视频中，全球贸易受到COVID-19大流行的严重冲击，导致供应链中断和需求激增，这暴露了全球供应链的脆弱性。

💡供应链

供应链是指产品从原材料获取、加工、生产到最终销售的整个流程。视频中提到，由于疫情导致的消费者需求激增，供应链面临前所未有的压力，这迫使企业重新考虑其供应链的安全性和稳定性。

💡COVID-19

COVID-19是一种由冠状病毒引起的传染病，它在2019年底首次出现，并迅速成为全球性大流行病。视频中讨论了COVID-19对全球贸易和供应链造成的长期影响。

💡中国+1

中国+1是一种供应链策略，指的是企业在依赖中国作为主要生产地的同时，寻找或增加一个或多个替代生产地，以分散风险。视频中提到，这种策略在疫情之前就已存在，但疫情加速了这一趋势的发展。

💡近岸外包

近岸外包是指企业将生产活动转移到地理位置更接近本土市场的国家，以减少对遥远生产地的依赖。视频中提到，尽管近岸外包在疫情初期是一个热门话题，但随着时间的推移，这一概念的热度有所减退。

💡港口拥堵

港口拥堵是指由于各种原因（如疫情、贸易量增加等）导致的港口货物堆积和船只等待时间延长的现象。视频中提到，美国洛杉矶港和中国宁波港因拥堵问题导致货物等待时间超过六周。

💡供应链风险管理

供应链风险管理是指识别、评估和采取措施减轻供应链中潜在风险的过程。视频中强调了企业如何通过多元化生产地和改进供应链结构来降低风险。

💡东南亚

东南亚是亚洲的一个地理区域，包括越南、印度、孟加拉国等国家。视频中讨论了这些国家作为潜在的生产转移目的地，以及它们在基础设施和物流方面的挑战。

💡物流基础设施

物流基础设施包括港口、铁路、公路等用于支持货物运输和分配的物理设施。视频中提到，东南亚国家的物流基础设施尚未完全准备好承接从中国转移过来的生产活动。

💡环境法规

环境法规是政府制定的旨在保护环境、促进可持续发展的法律和规章。视频中提到，新的环境法规要求一些老旧的小型船舶减速航行或报废，这可能会影响到东南亚地区的货物运输。

💡直接服务

直接服务是指货物可以从起始地直接运输到目的地，无需在途中经过其他转运点的服务。视频中提到，中国拥有最多的直接服务航线，而东南亚国家则需要发展更多的直接服务以提高效率。

Highlights

新冠疫情导致全球贸易受到严重冲击，供应链和采购模式发生了变化。

疫情期间，消费者需求激增，导致供应链超负荷运转。

疫情后，全球贸易的恢复带来了对供应链安全性和稳定性的新思考。

东南亚和中国作为世界工厂，正在经历供应链和物流的变化。

疫情导致全球供应链面临前所未有的压力，迫使行业重新考虑风险管理。

67%的零售商和制造商表示，供应链中断改变了他们的物资采购方式。

中美贸易战和疫情推动了供应链多样化的趋势，促使企业寻找替代中国的生产基地。

中国加一（China plus one）策略成为企业降低供应链风险的关键。

近岸化（near-shoring）作为一种生产策略，在疫情期间受到关注。

东南亚国家在基础设施和劳动力市场方面面临挑战，需要提升以吸引更多生产。

供应链的转移不仅是成本驱动，也与人口统计学有关，需要找到合适的劳动力。

航运公司面临的挑战是如何在不造成新的瓶颈的情况下，将生产从中国转移到其他国家。

尽管东南亚和印度有潜力，但在港口和内陆基础设施方面与中国相比仍有差距。

供应链的转移将是一个缓慢而渐进的过程，需要时间和大量投资。

未来12至24个月内，港口基础设施和船队构成可能会成为供应链面临的主要问题。

小型船舶的订单量增加，这可能有助于解决东南亚港口的船舶进入问题。

印度和其他东南亚国家的基础设施建设正在逐步改善，以支持物流和制造业的发展。

企业正在努力降低供应链风险，避免疫情导致的空货架和库存短缺的情况重演。

中国加一策略正在实施中，企业在寻求更灵活的供应链设置。

Transcripts

foreign

[Music]

s stranded containers

ships waiting several weeks for slots

outside the world's biggest ports and

empty shelves in the retail business

this was the scenario in global trade

during the pandemic when record consumer

demand overwhelms supply chain capacity

and pushed them beyond their limits

now with covid-19 almost a distant

memory we are in the aftermath of the

disruption That Shook global trade and

changed the way we think of our supply

chains and security of supply

but what permanent changes and shifts in

solving patterns are happening right now

this episode examines the changes in

Southeast Asia and China commonly known

as the world's Factory

[Music]

this is beyond the Box integrated

Logistics from the inside out

[Music]

welcome to the first episode of Beyond

The Box my name is great Cecilia Ross

and my name is Jonathan Williams

together with mass colleagues and

external industry experts we hope to

provide as many of you who'd ever bother

listening to a supply chain podcast with

just the right amount of interesting

topics and Industry insight

realistically we'll probably also

provide you with wasteful minutes of

Jonathan and I talking nonsense I will

without a doubt accidentally swear and

go down a path of hopeless banter and

I'm already on one now so you want to

save me what are we talking about today

I will definitely try I mean today's

topic is how covid-19 disrupted global

trade and how the supply chains and

sourcing patterns are changing as we

speak right now so to help us understand

this we've spoken to Leading shipping

expert lachinson he is the founder and

partner in Vespucci Maritime and of

course Anna Sophie Isel and Carson she's

head of operations for Asia Pacific here

in Moscow but before we talk integrated

Logistics now post pandemic let's

perhaps just touch upon why or how it

changed I mean when everybody else was

working from home or struggling to keep

busy or business afloat even this

industry was booming to an extent where

it at times actually couldn't keep up

and that might make a person or two

wonder why definitely I wasn't in the

industry back then but my brothers were

and are and I remember them telling me

how crazy the container market and

prices were

um and my annoying little sister

responds was why because we're all

buying TVs and fitness equipment turns

out yes

I read that in Denmark the sale of

electronics went up with 60 in 2020

compared to 2019 and in the US TVs alone

went up 56 it's absolutely crazy numbers

and I remember during the first lockdown

I also went uh bunkers buying stuff

online I mean the most notable being a

Lego mode model of Old Trafford the home

ground of my favorite football team man

united I even bought a monthly

subscription of craft beer delivered

right to my front door and to the much

enjoyment of my wife I have to say

um I just love how you always get you

know you always find a way to sneak

football and be in when we when we talk

you want to tell them yeah you know you

know how it is with me and what about

you good ugh I'm so basic

um and by that I mean I did what

everybody else did

um like General spending Rose by more

than 20 in 2020 particularly on books

Cosmetics clothing and groceries 26 on

building materials garden stuff tools

paint and so on yes I did a little bit

of research

um and I was without a doubt Bob the

Builder by day Luxury Spa meets book

club by night my back was out yeah but

my face looked 25. let's move on to what

it's really about this at this episode

we've now established the fundamentals

and buy more stuff ship more stuff

exactly so let's take it up a notch

so much stuff that the supply chain

comes under severe pressure and

potentially eventually breaks

[Music]

what a cliffhanger

but the increase in demand did challenge

the supply chain at a point there'd be

more than six weeks of waiting time

outside the Port of Los Angeles in the

US and in Ningbo China due to congestion

issues and covet outbreaks among truck

drivers and Port workers

berskine writers have created a white

paper discussing a generational shift in

sourcing strategies with quantitative

data around trends one interesting fact

that I will highlight here was that 67

percent of retailers and manufacturers

say that supply chain disruptions have

changed the way they Source materials it

is fair to say that the supply chains

have moved into a c-suit matter in all

companies across the world yeah and it

really picked up pace when the U.S and

China started imposing terrorists on

each other um a handful of years ago if

you think about it that's now six years

straight with disruptions trade barriers

in the Asia Pacific region a pandemic A

Worn European soil and economic

uncertainty for many consumers with the

soaring inflation in the U.S and Europe

what a time to be alive eh companies

were already starting to produce and

ship from different hubs to spread their

risk before the covet 19. but in enough

with the past let's look to the Future

and find out how years of disruptions

have changed the industry or should I

say the mindset of the industry

Beyond The Box met with two experts on

supply chain patterns last Jensen

founder and partner at Vespucci Maritime

and nswank Carlson who's the head of

operations in the asia-pacific region at

Mass the pair discussed how moving parts

of manufacturing out of China had

already begun before covid-19 and how

the pandemic impacted that development I

think in many ways it's just accelerated

a trend that was already there I mean if

you look at over the last 10 years or so

manufacturing costs in China has

increased significantly

which have made companies who probably

predominantly produce in China look for

Alternatives from a cost angle

and it's clear over the last couple of

years even before the pandemic there are

trade tensions were starting right

between especially Asia and and or China

and the US which accelerated it and even

more so than during the pandemic I think

China plus one were obviously shipping

in and out of China has been has been at

times tested quite significantly has

become a very large thing but I actually

think that China plus one is what we all

talk about

but what the pandemic I think taught a

lot of companies was that it's actually

about de-risking Supply change so

um I would argue that that's also

something called your plus one strategy

or even an America's plus one strategy

if you're only located in one place so

this is about sourcing patterns and

trying to de-risk that you're not

dependent on one organ or one sourcing

country simply because yeah the pandemic

taught us in in bad ways that that can

be very risky first of all China plus

one it's less like a wedding invitation

and more term for countries bordering to

China or in near proximity exactly and

this is why we're currently seeing an

enhanced focus on the potential and

pitfalls of countries such as Vietnam

India Bangladesh and China yeah but why

aren't we just using the term I don't

know Asia I mean I suppose in many ways

we could but we also have to bear in

mind that some companies in Europe and

the US are considering moving part of

their production even closer to the home

markets also known as near Shoring

so this was especially a Hot Topic

during the first lockdown when we lack

protective equipment such as hand

sanitizers mask I don't know if you

remember

uh it's a distant memory yeah I mean I

think for me personally it took like a

month before I got some hand sanitizer

it was really frustrating anyways since

then the issues with near Shoring has

pretty much stopped the idea of rolling

back production from China and Asia to

Europe and the US I mean China and its

neighboring countries have been the

world Factory for the past of two or

three decades which means that the

infrastructure labor market and

legislation have worked around this I

mean it would be an extremely costly and

long-lasting process to turn it all back

now so let's hear how La Jensen

continues this discussion I'm very much

along the same lines part of it is cost

driven part of it is down to demography

where do you find the labor force

necessary so the pandemic probably

stopped that for a while while everybody

was finding out and trying to find their

feet how do we deal with all the

pandemic disruptions

now the challenge faced by the shippers

is going to be slightly different

because you can't have a stampede out of

China that is a clear limit as to how

rapidly that can go but the other thing

is and that's what I've been advising a

lot of shippers on if you move some of

your production away from China to say

India or Southeast Asia

look carefully at where you move it to

because the port and hinderland

infrastructure in the rest of Asia is

not yet Geared for this so unless you

want to run into a new bottleneck issue

don't just look at where can you get

cheap labor force but where will you

have access to Port infrastructure

Logistics infrastructure that is not

constrained say something like Cambodia

there it's a very very big problem where

the road system is very very limited

um Vietnam and India it might be a

little better but it's not a lot better

so again if you compare to a China then

it just has a very very long way to go

and as you as you will see more

production move there it will as it

stands right now you know there's

there's later risks of of congestion

meaning again you know larger risks of

disruptions to to supply chains

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okay so companies have been talking

about this for a decade right

and now the companies are starting to

really act on it it's Dawning on them

how extremely competitive the

infrastructure and capacity in China is

and how much work still needs to be done

elsewhere in the region to even begin to

match China our two experts also

discussed exactly how big a task that is

and how much South and Southeast Asia

are still lacking in order to take over

parts of the manufacturing this isn't

something that's going to happen over a

two to three year period this will be a

slow gradual move simply because it's

not possible so seven out of the ten

largest ports in the world they are on

the east coast of China and if China was

to reduce output by 10 southeast Asia

including India would have to increase

by a hundred so it's it it's it's

something that will take quite a long

time both in terms of actually

production capabilities but much more

around the ports right so I agree very

much that customers who are looking at

this they are looking very much at what

is actually the the infrastructure

around it and I would say that the

in the years to come I think that's the

biggest question how much can you

actually ramp up investments in in

Southeast Asia and in in India to be

able to support this additional output

terminal capacity especially is

something that I have a question mark

around in the in the neural or on medium

term I think we need to distinguish a

bit between what are near-term issues

being the next 12 to 24 months and what

are issues when you get further Beyond

in the next 12 to 24 months one of the

issues you're going to come up against

is not just constraints in the port

infrastructure but we also have a

relatively lopsided Fleet where a lot of

the small vessels that will be needed in

Southeast Asia for feedering purposes

they also tend to be very old vessels

they're the ones that some of them are

not going to be scrapped some of them

are going to have to slow steam because

of a lot of the new environmental

regulations and yes the industry has a

massive order book but that's lopsided

towards the big vessels that's not going

to help so there might be in the very

short term a shortage when it comes to

specifically to the feeder segment

slightly longer term I expect we will

see more new small efficient vessels be

ordered but they're not going to be

delivered until 25 or 26. on top of that

if I can just add to last what you said

before this is not about the hindoland

but it's more about the feeder

appointment so a lot of customers today

they will say that they prefer direct

products so China today right has the

most number of Direct Services calls in

and out

um and SS that will simply not be

possible in in especially southeast Asia

but that actually is speaking from a

carrier angle is a very exciting

opportunity when you work in the

delivery on operations as I do because

it's all about figuring out how we make

Trend shipment and non-issue for our

customers and to me to be able to

support the market that's shifting as

what we're seeing right now that will

actually be the challenge for the

carriers how do you make Trend shipment

and non-event

foreign

so I actually read an article in Danish

newspaper burst and I think just last

week it tapped into what our experts are

talking about that the dominant vessels

being ordered are the ones transporting

between 12 000 and 17 000 containers in

other words not the biggest ones this so

um ships can enter more Harbors in

Southeast Asia yeah I mean we're in a

large scale moving away from the mega

vessels also known as the Triple E class

that the shipping industry ordered in

the Years leading up to the financial

crisis yeah but still I just feel like

buying smaller ships can't be the only

solution I mean no definitely not we

live in a complex world and an

ever-changing industry so let's hear

from our experts one more time you could

make the case and say let's take an

example India I mean India has enormous

growth potential but is held back by a

lack of good hinderland infrastructure

and the easiest thing in the world would

be to make the case it's in the Indian

government's own self-interest to build

this out the problem is if you want to

wait for that you you might wait for a

very very long time that's where it

might be in the self-interest of a lot

of the logistics providers out there to

put in the investment capital and not

wait for the government to step in yeah

I fully agree to that but I actually

think it's it's a little bit of

everything there is a governmental role

in this there's definitely some for the

the logistics and that's definitely

something for uh terminal operators as

well so I actually think it's the entire

ecosystem that that will be required to

make investments to uh to to support

this and one thing that's also maybe

important to note I mean I think it's

worth to be very optimistic in terms of

India's

how India is building out their their

infrastructure when it comes to

Logistics I mean they abolish the

capitals regulation a few years ago they

are beginning to make their ports more

efficient we are beginning to see now

some Direct Services go into main points

in India so I think you're going to see

in India that becomes much better

connected in the coming years not just

with feedering but also Direct Services

with that added efficiency you will also

get an increased willingness to invest

more in the hinterland infrastructure

also from Indian companies themselves

that will very quickly find it becomes

expensive to build and operate

manufacturing plants close to the ports

they might want to move further Inland

to also draw on the labor force in there

I suppose that is truly integrated

Logistics if companies start to build

railroads and general infrastructure in

countries like Cambodia and such do you

think that will happen

it's actually already happening right

well I mean I do know that the APM

terminal pipav in India received the

First full block train last year and in

general it's pretty well connected to

the Northwest hinderland by rail it was

also the first port in India to receive

double stacked container trains back in

2006 but is it enough I mean it's really

fascinating stuff and I think only time

will tell but I mean that's definitely

the development being discussed these

days which is highlighted by Leading

shipping expert La Jensen founder and

partner in Vespucci Maritime and

Anderson Carlson head of operations for

Asia Pacific in mosque

so what I gather from this episode is

that we are seeing a shift from having

all production sourced in one country to

bought a more flexible setup

in other words companies are working on

de-risking their supply chains to

prevent a repeat of the scenario during

the pandemic with empty shelves and

stocks

whilst the idea of near sharing has

faded like we saw in the beginning of

the pandemic China plus one is very much

alive and happening as we speak all

right this was the first episode of

Beyond The Box spot we're already

working on the next episode so do

subscribe on your favorite podcast

platform Spotify Google Apple whatever

rocks your boat we greatly appreciate it

and with that thanks so much for

listening are we done already we are

done already yeah

time flies I guess yeah you just have to

state your name now and then people can

get on with their lives yeah sorry about

that my name is Jonathan greenlassen and

I'm good Cecilia Ross it's been a

pleasure also thank you to our colleague

Anderson who was our reporting the field

for this episode and last but not least

our producer modern Butler

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thank you

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