The Critical Role of Supply Chains in Business and Society

Summary

在这段视频脚本中，MIT运输与物流中心的主任、工程系统教授Yossi Sheffi博士和MITX供应链管理MicroMasters项目的执行董事Eva Ponce讨论了供应链在现代社会中的关键作用。他们探讨了供应链对于维持生活标准、应对全球性挑战如大流行病、自然灾害的影响，以及供应链管理在提高效率、增强韧性和推动可持续性方面的重要作用。Sheffi博士强调了供应链的复杂性，包括它如何涉及多个实体和过程，并且讨论了技术进步，如自动化和人工智能，如何改变供应链的运作和相关职业的未来。此外，他们还涉及了数据共享、隐私和安全问题，以及这些问题如何影响供应链的透明度和效率。整个讨论强调了终身学习的重要性，以及供应链专业人士需要如何适应不断变化的全球经济环境。

Takeaways

• 📚 供应链管理对于现代社会至关重要，它不仅支持生命的维持，也支撑着生活水平的标准。
• 🌐 供应链的效率是区分生活水平高低国家以及企业成功与否的关键因素。
• 🤔 疫情之后，人们更加意识到供应链在日常生活中的重要性，尤其是在食品、药品、家具和玩具等商品的供应上。
• 📈 供应链的复杂性来源于其互相连接的系统，且受到多种因素影响，如自然灾害、社会事件和政治决策等。
• 🚚 技术在供应链的可持续性方面发挥着关键作用，包括环境、社会和经济的可持续性。
• 💡 供应链专业人士需要具备系统思维、问题解决和批判性思考的能力，以应对日益复杂的供应链环境。
• 📊 尽管技术如人工智能和机器学习在预测需求方面有帮助，但在危机期间，由于需求模式的结构性变化，这些算法可能失效。
• 🌿 可持续性不仅仅是公司层面的问题，而是需要从整个供应链的角度来评估，包括生产过程和产品来源。
• 🚀 供应链专业人士应该不断学习和适应新技术，以保持其在未来供应链中的相关性和贡献。
• ⏰ 即时满足感的消费者需求推动了如无人机送货等创新解决方案的发展，但同时也带来了成本和效率的挑战。
• 🔒 数据共享在供应链中是一个复杂的问题，涉及数据安全和竞争优势，公司之间在数据共享方面往往持谨慎态度。

Q & A

为什么供应链管理在现代商业和全球经济中扮演着至关重要的角色？

供应链管理对于维持生命、提供食品、药品、家具和玩具等所有你能想象到的物品至关重要。它不仅支持维持生命，还支持生活标准。供应链的效率在很多情况下是生活水平高低国家之间的区别，也是公司表现好坏的差别。

全球供应链的复杂性是如何体现的？

全球供应链涉及许多实体、人员、组织、私营和公共非政府组织，从原材料的采集到成品的制造，再到最终消费者手中，这整个过程涉及众多的环节和参与者。

技术在提高供应链的可持续性方面扮演了什么角色？

技术如可再生能源的利用正在变得更加便宜和可靠，有助于减少环境影响。然而，技术的影响需要在整个供应链中评估，包括它们对环境、社会和经济可持续性的影响。

为什么说供应链专业人员需要具备系统思维和问题解决能力？

供应链是一个复杂的系统，专业人员需要理解其基本组成部分如何工作，如何应对中断和意外事件，并在整个供应链中寻找提高效率和可持续性的机会。

在危机期间，如何成功进行供应链需求预测？

在大的危机期间，需求模式会发生结构性变化，导致算法失效。公司需要依赖于理解流程的人员，他们能够手动运行流程，并在没有计算机的情况下也能进行操作。

供应链专业人员如何为未来的供应链做出贡献？

供应链专业人员应该持续学习和发展，通过参加在线课程、会议、讲座和展示，了解新技术，并保持对行业动态的了解。

无人机送货服务在满足即时满足需求方面的作用是什么？

无人机送货服务是实现即时满足的另一种模式，尤其在偏远地区已经用于医疗用品的配送。但在城市地区，由于监管障碍和安全性考虑，其应用还面临挑战。

为什么公司不愿意在供应链中共享数据？

公司之间存在竞争关系，数据共享可能会泄露公司的库存信息、订单量等敏感信息，这些信息可能被竞争对手利用。因此，公司通常只在信任的合作伙伴之间有限地共享数据。

如何定义繁荣，供应链如何支持非物质增长的繁荣？

繁荣的定义超越了物质增长，包括可持续性和社会责任。供应链通过尽可能高效地运作，同时引入外部性如碳排放税，来支持这种类型的繁荣。

在供应链管理中，成本和服务水平之间的权衡是如何体现的？

供应链管理中需要在提供高水平服务和降低成本之间找到平衡。例如，即时配送服务虽然服务水平高，但成本也高。而通过卡车集中配送则成本较低，但服务水平会有所下降。

人工智能（AI）将如何改变供应链和供应链中的角色？

AI将作为一种工具，帮助提高生产力，使管理人员能够编写自己的代码，减少沟通成本。但同时，AI不太可能很快取代那些需要同理心、道德判断和上下文理解的工作。

为什么说供应链不仅仅是连接起点和终点，而是需要理解整个系统？

供应链的每个环节都可能对环境和社会产生影响，包括使用童工、强制劳动或严重污染等。因此，评估一个公司或产品的可持续性需要考虑从原材料到最终消费者的整个流程。

Outlines

00:00

😀 欢迎与介绍

Eva Ponce，MITX供应链管理MicroMasters项目的执行董事，欢迎参与者加入讨论会。她将与MIT的Yossi Sheffi教授一起探讨供应链在商业和社会中的关键作用。Sheffi教授是工程系统、系统优化、风险分析和供应链管理领域的专家。讨论将围绕供应链在现代全球经济中的重要性，以及它们如何影响生活标准和企业表现。

05:01

🌐 供应链的复杂性和全球互联

讨论了供应链的复杂性，从原材料到成品的过程中涉及的多方实体和组织。传统上，供应链的目标是提供高水平服务，即最大化收入和降低成本。然而，现在供应链还面临着新的挑战，如韧性、抵御中断的能力以及可持续性。Sheffi教授提到，评估一个公司的可持续性需要考虑整个供应链，从原材料到消费者手中的全过程。

10:02

🚛 技术在可持续性中的作用

讨论了技术如何帮助实现环境、社会和经济的可持续性。Sheffi教授指出，尽管技术如自动驾驶卡车可能对减少碳排放有重大影响，但消费者是否愿意为可持续产品支付更多费用仍是一个问题。他还提到，技术的影响需要在整个系统范围内评估，例如可再生能源的局限性和它们在提供基本负荷电力方面的挑战。

15:04

🤔 供应链中的权衡

探讨了供应链中的权衡，尤其是服务水平和成本之间的权衡。Sheffi教授举例说明了即时满足感对成本的影响，以及如何在不使用传统运输方式的情况下，通过无人机送货等服务来实现快速配送。他还提到了供应链在电子商务和全渠道零售中的挑战，以及如何在提供便利、质量和价值的同时管理库存波动。

20:04

🌟 供应链专业人员所需的技能

讨论了供应链专业人员需要具备的技能，包括对供应链运作的基本理解、库存管理和优化、运输管理、采购和分销等。强调了系统思维、解决问题和批判性思维的重要性。Sheffi教授提到，MicroMasters项目旨在为学生提供成功所需的工具，包括如何应对干扰和意外事件。

25:07

🤖 人工智能在供应链中的角色

讨论了人工智能（AI）如何改变供应链以及人们在其中的角色。Sheffi教授预测，尽管AI可能会导致某些工作的消失，但它也将创造新的工作机会。他强调，某些技能，如同理心、道德和理解上下文，将是AI在很长一段时间内难以实现的。他还提到，关键技能之一是批判性思维，这对于解释AI提供的复杂信息至关重要。

30:08

📈 供应链支持繁荣而非物质增长

讨论了供应链如何支持繁荣而非单纯的物质增长。Sheffi教授指出，定义繁荣的方式很重要，并且提到了欧盟工业革命5.0的概念，它超越了4.0，考虑了可持续增长和社会正义。他提出了一个问题，即投资者是否会支持牺牲利润以换取绿色发展的公司。他还讨论了通过碳税等手段将经济激励与可持续性激励相结合的方法。

35:11

📊 危机期间的供需预测

讨论了在危机期间进行供需预测的挑战。Sheffi教授提到，大规模的干扰会导致需求模式的结构性变化，这使得依赖算法的预测方法失效。他还提到了数字化带来的对网络攻击的脆弱性，以及在这种情况下，理解流程并能够手工操作的重要性。

40:11

🚀 未来供应链专业人员的发展

讨论了有经验的供应链专业人员如何保持其在未来供应链中的相关性。建议专业人员参与终身学习机会，如在线教育和会议，以了解新技术并持续自我发展。强调了持续发展的必要性，以及了解其他公司正在做什么的重要性。

45:13

🛸 无人机送货服务和数据共享

讨论了无人机送货服务以及它如何满足即时满足感的需求。提到了监管障碍和在城市地区使用无人机的挑战。还讨论了供应链中数据共享的重要性，以及公司间在共享数据方面的犹豫，因为数据是竞争优势的来源。

📝 结语和感谢

Eva Ponce感谢Yossi Sheffi教授的深刻见解和与会者的积极参与。讨论了数据隐私和安全，以及公司间数据共享的挑战。最后，感谢所有参与者，并提供了联系方式以便后续交流。

Keywords

💡供应链管理

供应链管理是指对产品从生产到消费的整个流程进行协调和管理的一系列活动。在视频中，供应链管理被强调为现代商业社会的关键角色，特别是在疫情之后，人们意识到供应链对于维持生活标准和提供从食品到药品等各种商品的重要性。

💡系统优化

系统优化是指通过最有效的方式改进系统的设计和运行，以达到特定的目标。视频中提到，Dr. Yossi Sheffi 是系统优化的专家，这涉及到如何在供应链中实现成本最小化和效率最大化。

💡风险分析

风险分析是评估项目或企业可能面临的潜在风险以及这些风险可能带来的影响的过程。视频中，Dr. Yossi Sheffi 讨论了供应链中的各种风险，包括自然灾害、人为失误和政治因素等。

💡可持续性

可持续性涉及在不损害未来代际满足自身需求的能力的情况下满足当前需求。视频中讨论了供应链在实现环境可持续性方面的作用，包括整个产品生命周期的绿色影响。

💡技术进步

技术进步指的是技术的发展和创新，这在供应链管理中尤为重要。视频中提到了自主卡车运输和电动车辆等技术，以及它们如何影响供应链的效率和环境影响。

💡人工智能

人工智能是指使计算机系统模拟人类智能的技术，包括学习、推理、自我修正和感知。视频中讨论了人工智能如何改变供应链，包括它可能创造的新工作机会和对现有工作的潜在影响。

💡即时满足

即时满足指的是消费者期望快速获得产品或服务的心理状态。视频中提到了亚马逊等公司如何通过快速配送来满足消费者的即时满足需求，以及这种做法对供应链效率的影响。

💡数据共享

数据共享是指在不同组织或个体之间共享信息和数据的做法。视频中讨论了供应链中数据共享的重要性，以及它如何帮助提高预测的准确性和应对市场变化。

💡供应链弹性

供应链弹性指的是供应链在面对干扰时维持或迅速恢复其功能的能力。视频中，Dr. Yossi Sheffi 强调了在面对如疫情这样的全球性干扰时，供应链弹性的重要性。

💡环境监管

环境监管涉及政府或国际机构制定的旨在保护环境和促进可持续发展的规则和政策。视频中提到，环境监管对于评估一个公司或国家的供应链是否真正绿色至关重要。

💡职业发展

职业发展指的是个人在其职业生涯中的成长和进步。视频中，对于像 Javier 这样的供应链专业人士，建议他们通过终身学习来保持与未来供应链相关的贡献者地位。

Highlights

MITX供应链管理MicroMasters项目的执行董事Eva Ponce主持了这次活动，讨论了供应链在商业和社会中的关键作用。

Yossi Sheffi教授，作为工程系统领域的专家，讨论了系统优化、风险分析和供应链管理。

Sheffi教授强调了疫情期间供应链对维持生活的重要性，包括食品、药品、家具和玩具等。

供应链效率是衡量国家生活水平高低的关键因素之一。

Sheffi教授提到，供应链的弹性和抵御中断的能力是现代供应链的新目标。

供应链管理在环境可持续性方面扮演着重要角色，需要从原材料到成品的整个流程进行评估。

技术在提高供应链的环境、社会和经济可持续性方面发挥着关键作用。

Sheffi教授讨论了自主卡车运输可能比电动卡车具有更高的绿色影响。

可再生能源技术如风能和太阳能正在变得更便宜，但它们不能提供所谓的基础负荷电力。

Sheffi教授强调了在供应链中实现高服务水平与低成本之间的权衡。

电子商务和全渠道零售的兴起带来了新的供应链挑战，如库存波动和即时满足客户需求。

Sheffi教授认为，尽管人们愿意为可持续性付出更多，但目前大多数人并不愿意为可持续产品支付更高的价格。

供应链专业人士需要具备系统思维、问题解决和批判性思考的技能。

Sheffi教授预测，人工智能将改变工作的本质，但某些技能，如同理心和道德判断，AI在很长一段时间内难以实现。

供应链专业人士Javier询问如何成为未来供应链的相关贡献者，建议是终身学习并跟上新技术。

讨论了无人机送货服务作为满足即时满足需求的一种方式，尽管目前存在许多监管障碍。

Sheffi教授对技术共享持开放态度，但指出公司间的数据共享存在法律和竞争障碍。

最后，讨论了供应链中的数据安全和隐私问题，以及如何平衡技术优势与合作的必要性。

Transcripts

(bright music)

(ticking sound)

- Welcome, everyone.

I'm Eva Ponce,

Executive Director of the MITX,

MicroMasters Program

in Supply Chain Management.

And it's truly my pleasure to host this event

where we'll be discussing

with Professor Yossi Sheffi

about the critical role of supply chains

in business and society.

Dr. Yossi Sheffi is the Elisha Gray Professor

of Engineering Systems at MIT,

where he serves as the Director of the MIT,

Center for Transportation and Logistics.

He's an expert in many different areas,

but more specifically

in systems optimization,

risk analysis,

and supply chain management.

Of course,

he's the author of many scientific publications

and nine books.

It's truly a pleasure

to have you today, Yossi.

- Thank you very much for having me.

My pleasure.

- Excellent.

So during this life event,

professor Sheffi and I,

will be discussing the critical role

of supply chains in modern societies,

in modern global economy

for about 30 minutes.

Then I will open the floor during 15 minutes,

four questions from you,

from the audience.

So please make sure

that you use the Q and A feature

in the webinar

so I can see the questions

and bring these questions to Professor Sheffi,

and answer your questions

towards the end of this event.

The plan for this event is to discover

how supply chain management plays a crucial,

a critical role

in almost every aspect of business.

So my first question for you, Yossi is,

why is it important

to learn about supply chains?

- Well,

(Yossi and Eva chuckles)

Maybe, people ask this question

before the pandemic.

I don't think too many people

asked this question

after the pandemic

because we found out as consumer,

people in business always knew,

but the consumer found out

how important supply chains are

for sustaining life,

for bringing food,

for bringing medicine,

as well as furniture and toys,

and everything else

that you can imagine.

So supply chain actually support

not only sustaining life,

but support standard of living.

And the difference between countries

with high standard of living

in countries that standard of living

is not that high,

is supply chain efficiency in many, many cases.

So it's also the difference

between companies who do well

and companies who don't do so well.

'Cause supply chain is responsible

for having the items on the share,

for having the items

in the fulfillment center,

to having the item get to your home,

having the item be at the pharmacy,

at the hospital,

in the supermarket.

When supply chain are being hampered

and not allowed to work as they usually do

with the usual efficiency,

we have disruptions and we have shortages

like we had during the pandemic.

- Yes.

Yeah, thank you.

Thank you for that,

because it's true.

The supply chain is kind of the backbone

of this modern societies.

They are helping everyone to get any goods.

And you mentioned many different goods,

vaccines was one of those,

and medicines, toys,

all of these goods.

You also mentioned the disruption of the pandemic.

It's true that supply chain are interconnected systems

and complex systems.

And during the last,

I would say 30, 50 years,

we have been observing many disruptions,

many reasons that are kind of bringing complexity

to this supply chain.

And the pandemic was one

of these big disruptions,

of course.

So can you illustrate

or bring some examples

of these aspects

that you think are kind of bringing

more and more complexity to the supply chains?

- Well, interesting you mentioned it.

In my latest book,

I talk a lot about it,

trying to explain

to the uninitiated people

who are not in supply chain,

how complex and how intricate

global supply chains are,

and how many entities,

and people, and organizations,

and private, public NGO are involved

in getting a product.

Think about it from the mine,

taking the basic material or from the field

when we grow them

to a finished product.

So in the book for example,

I follow a t-shirt.

What happened to a t-shirt?

And this does not even include

all the processes from the cotton

to the textile.

But once you have a t-shirt

just to get it to the consumer,

you see how many people,

organization, processes are involved in this.

And the traditionally,

the role of supply chain

was mostly high level of service,

which means try to maximize revenue

and reduce cost.

This was complex enough.

Running it of a huge network

over the entire wall,

crossing borders,

crossing different legal regime,

different regulatory regimes.

This was complex enough in its own right.

Now supply chain are expected,

and not only expected,

the only way you can achieve

new goals like resilience,

like the ability to withstand disruption.

We talk about some disruption,

is by strengthening supply chain

or working in a different way

in supply chain management.

So regardless of the disruption,

be it, Fukushima earthquake

and radioactive disaster

or Katrina in the United States,

Be it explosion in the Gulf of Mexico,

many, many fires now in California,

floods in Europe.

There are many, many disruptions

on all over the world.

So being able to withstand it

and keep the flow of goods to consumers

is crucial.

Again, another new goal

in the last 10 years,

is sustainability.

Many people make mistake by judging

how sustainable,

how green is a given company.

That's almost meaningless.

Because the company can outsource

its dirty manufacturing operations

to a country

when the regulations are not that tough,

when labor issues are not a problem.

So you can have a problem,

both with environmental sustainability

and social justice,

just by reorganizing your supply chain.

So you don't have to worry about

what the EU thing,

with the US thing and other country.

But go to country

when they don't pay attention to this.

So in order to judge supply chain

on many, many ground you have,

in order to judge companies,

you have to look at the supply chain.

Looking for example

at how green a particular company is,

is basically meaningless.

You have to look

at the entire process

of getting from the mine

or the field

to the consumer,

to the supermarket,

to the home,

whatever it is,

what is involved in all of these.

And people anywhere in the supply chain

using child labor.

- Hmm.

- People anywhere in the supply chain

using forced labor

or people anywhere in the supply chain

polluting the local rivers

or people emitting CO2

in large quantities

where it happened

in the supply chain.

And so you have to look

at the entire process.

The basic approach at MIT

in the MicroMaster,

is understanding the system.

And the system view

of company operations.

So you understand

where the problems are,

where the opportunities are as well,

because we are focusing on problem,

but there are also opportunities

along the supply chain

to make the entire chain more efficient,

serve customer better,

more sustainable, whatever.

So this is a big opportunity

and an interesting topic of course.

- I'm glad you mentioned this,

the important role,

not only the supply chain,

the end-to-end supply chain.

They understand to the entire system.

And this is one of the key things

when I'm hearing from our learners

in the MicroMaster program supply chain management,

one of the things that they gain

because they are exposed

to the fundamental concepts in supply chain.

So they are able to study

about inventory management,

transportation management, global supply chains.

And at the end of the program,

they are able to connect the dots.

And this dot connection,

this overall view of the entire supply chain,

is one of the beautiful thing I think,

that the MicroMaster program supply chain management,

is bringing to the society

and to the world,

which is a yeah,

great.

So you mentioned the critical role.

You mentioned many different important aspects.

I'm going to try and to deep dive

in some of those.

Regarding the critical role

of that supply chains,

play in climate change.

You mentioned this importance

of the environmental impact of products end-to-end.

For example,

electric vehicles is a good example

that we not only need to look

at the end of the supply chain

and how this is contributing

to less CO2 emissions.

We also need to look

at the initial part of the process,

isn't it?

So we need to cover the entire process,

the manufacturing process,

the origin of that product

and not see all only the end

of that application.

Correct?

- As well as where the electricity is coming from.

Because if the electricity is coming

from fossil fuel,

well, that is not-

You don't get as much savings

as you think you get.

And in countries

where you can use renewables

or you can use

actually nuclear power,

then it makes a lot more sense.

- Yes.

So-

- There's also economic issues.

In general,

we talk about,

when people think

that if we are not polluting,

will they drive more?

I mean,

it's a phenomenon that's well known.

When people buy cars

that are more efficient

in terms of the use of gas,

they actually drive more,

because it's cheaper.

- Yeah.

- So there's a lot of things to think about

when you think about the entire system.

- Exactly.

And all of the implications

that are intricated on that.

Another aspect I want to touch here,

talking about sustainability

and this approach is,

the role of technology.

How do you see technology

as playing a key role

when we are talking about sustainability?

'Cause you also touch,

not only the environmental sustainability,

also social sustainability and economic sustainability.

So these three aspects,

how do you see technology helping here, Yossi?

- Okay.

That's really willing more time

to look at it.

Because I think,

in some sense,

that's not the most important question.

The most important question may be,

will people accept?

Will people will be willing to pay a little more

for sustainable product?

And so far,

despite all the talk

and the teenage girls from Sweden,

people are not willing to pay more

by and large,

in large now.

There's always a minority

that's a environmental minority

that's willing to pay more.

But by and large, people don't.

And business noise.

So it's hard for companies to invest.

It's hard for even government

to set regulation,

even though people are trying for sure.

In terms of technology,

there's some interesting way to think about it.

For example,

when we think about trucking,

turns out that autonomous trucking

will have a most likely,

a higher green impact

than electric trucks.

Because as it turns out,

30 or 40% of the fuel used by trucks

is used for the benefit of the driver.

When the driver has to slip in the truck,

when the driver just has to cool

and warm the cab.

Once there'll be autonomous trucks,

we don't have to worry

about making the driver mill feel comfortable.

So there'll be a big benefit

in terms of emissions.

Now if you combine of course,

electric plus autonomous,

it may be even bigger.

But as you mentioned before,

electric vehicles,

one is to look at the entire system.

Even at things like,

I was just came back from London

and some of the cabs are worried

about Uber introducing autonomous cabs.

- Yes.

- And the question is,

okay, let's say,

we autonomous cabs

and they will be cheaper

because there'll be no driver.

But will there be a lot more trips

because of autonomous cable?

Will be a lot more congestion

because of autonomous cabs?

There's so many impact.

We know for example,

when something becomes cheaper,

it is used more,

just demand, supply.

That's again,

we come back to the system aspect.

What impact the technology will have?

Look, there are technology,

like the renewables are an important technology.

- Yeah.

- We have wind or sand power,

these are technological breakthrough

that they now become cheaper and cheaper,

and then we can use them

more and more.

But they have inherent flaws.

They cannot provide what's called base load.

They can provide

because the sun doesn't always shine,

the wind doesn't always blow.

So it comes and goes.

And we need what's called base load

that is there all the time,

because you don't want to get your car

into a charging station

and then the charging station doesn't work.

'Cause-

- Yeah.

And by the way,

we see it in California today.

California today has brownouts.

Cases when there's no electricity for homes

and because they invested a lot in renewable

and shut down a lot of nuclear plans.

So, there's no reliable energy.

- Yeah.

- So we have to think about all these aspects.

- Exactly.

And again,

if we are talking about,

you grow it again.

Talking about technology,

you need to evaluate the impact

in the entire supply chain.

It's not just a partial thing

or a narrow thing

that we need to look at.

- Right.

- You also mentioned,

when I was asking you, Yossi,

about the complexity of supply chains.

You just mentioned

one of the basic trade-offs

that is in between achieving

this high service level and low cost,

or do it in a very efficient way.

Correct?

So there are many trade-offs

in supply chains

that companies are dealing with them

and trying their best

in being efficient

and at the same time,

trying to serve their customer

or providing the best service

to their customers.

I want to connect here,

because Dr. Chris Caplice

in supply chain fundamentals,

when he cover eventually,

management and transportation management,

always, always at the end of the lesson,

he's bringing this trade off

in between cost and service

that is one of the basic trade-offs,

in supply chain,

Of course.

And I also want to connect here now

with e-commerce and omnichannel.

We know that retailers

like Walmart, Tesco, Target,

big retailers are facing the challenge

of combining stores and digital channels.

They are trying to serve

their customers at the store,

at the carb site, home delivery,

and offer convenience,

quality, value at the same time.

So they are dealing with many trade-offs.

And I was very positively surprised the other day

when I was watching one of the videos

of the president of Walmart

that he was bringing supply chain,

playing a key role

in all of this environment.

In this competitive environment,

this key role in order to help the company

to be sustainable in all sense,

in cost, environment,

and for the social perspective,

of course.

And we also know that this fluctuations

in inventory create extra cost.

And if you are not managing appropriately,

the supply chain,

then it's impossible to offer,

for example,

this seamless customer experience

or this fast deliveries

in an efficient way.

So what are your thoughts here

about these trade-offs?

What are kind of the most recent

challenging trade-offs

that you are observing in companies,

in this environment,

and this dynamic environment?

- Okay.

There are many, many answers to this.

But maybe, we can start with the consumer.

Because today,

in many products

you order in Boston from Amazon,

you get it in two hours and four hours.

That is ridiculous.

I mean, who needs the product

in four hours?

We order a product in the evening,

it gets at 4:00 AM in the morning,

it gets to our door

from Amazon.

So as long as people click on this

and not, you know.

- Yeah.

- They want it in two hours,

they want it for hours.

Even though Amazon always said,

Amazon day,

you can get it in three days,

in two days.

It's just so convenient.

So there's a big trail of,

because Amazon has a fulfillment center

outside Boston.

If I order something

that they have in a fulfillment center

and they get to me in two hours,

it's very inefficient.

It's not green at all,

because they have to send it

that event directly to my home

and give it to me.

And it takes them an hour

just to find it in the warehouse

and then the event takes another 45 minutes

to get to me.

They cannot build an efficient tour,

which would like.

But in any aspect of supply chain,

there's this trade off.

For example,

let's say, I make some stuff,

some widgets, some items,

and customers ordering it.

What I can do,

one way to do it,

is to put everyone in a FedEx envelope

and they'll get it the next morning.

- Yeah.

- Another way is to wait

and fill a truck,

and send it to the store.

Clearly, sending in one at a time,

will be a very high level of service.

The cost will be enormous.

Putting it in the truck,

I'll have to wait

until I have enough to fill the truck.

So I'm sacrificing level of service,

but the cost is lower.

Maybe, I want to do something in between,

something that we will have relatively

a high level of service and relatively low cost.

But we have to think about

all of these trade-offs

along the supply chain,

how fast we want it,

how good the level of service,

at what cost are we willing,

what is the cost that we're willing to pay.

This goes beyond,

I mean, it touches on geopolitical issues.

It touches on reassuring.

Do we want, for example,

have a supplier in China,

which may take time to get to us,

but it's a low cost

or the supplier in the United States,

which may be costlier,

but we can get it quickly.

And it's not subject to problems.

Because if the tension

between the US and China will continue to grow,

we may have more and more problems.

So there's the geopolitical aspect.

We saw what happened

when the Russians invaded Ukraine,

that suddenly there was the food problem,

because Ukraine generates a lot of wheat

and a lot of food stuff that yet,

so they're nations in Africa

that were suffering.

The supply chain of oil.

When Russia cut all the oil and gas,

most of the oil and gas treatment to Europe.

At the beginning,

there was panic until they realized,

eh, they can adjust.

There are lots of adjustments.

It was supply of oil and gas,

and it was not a big deal.

And now the winter is passing,

no problem.

And lot of these things

are a question of trade-offs.

And to give you last example,

in Europe,

when they're very conscientious

about green economy,

about sustainability.

It used to be until,

in short time ago,

that the oil and gas were considered dirty fuel.

It's true.

Just now, the gas is now green.

Come on.

Surely, gas has about half the emissions

of gasoline,

of oil.

But it's not green really.

It's a lot of emission.

But you see the trade-off?

- Yeah.

If they had to agree,

okay.

So, a trade is not only

between cost and service.

In green and supplying energy

to the consumer.

There are many, many traders.

- Yeah, definitely.

I agree on that.

And thanks for bringing even more examples

just to illustrate

this key aspect of supply chains.

And also, supply chains,

and you brought to us,

geopolitical tensions.

There are many aspects that are impacting.

Our intricate systems with many stakeholders,

many stakeholders that are involved

across many geographies,

is a global problem,

what we have.

I want to connect here

with the skills

of the supply chain professionals.

So what skills

do supply chain professionals

need to have

in this increasingly complex space?

What do you think about that, Yossi?

- Well, obviously,

we teach what we think is important

in the MicroMaster

and in the programs at MIT.

- Yes.

- But we go from the fundamental understanding

how supply chain work,

understanding how the basic components

of supply chains are working,

what's involved in inventory management

and optimizing inventory,

what's involved in transportation management.

This are the basic building block of logistics.

But we talk also about procurement.

We talk about distribution,

we talk about all kind of related issues.

So there's a whole level of knowledge

that is just understanding

what you have to do

as a supply chain manager.

What are the basics

that you have to do.

We do try, even in the MicroMaster,

to instill some of these ideas of,

trade-offs are everywhere.

Supply chains are complex system.

You have to look at it end to end.

They interact with other supply chain.

They don't stand alone by themselves.

How do you deal

with disruption and unexpected event.

So we also go to that length

to give student a tool

that they need to be successful in their profession.

- Yeah.

- So I think,

I'm happy to open it

to question if you want.

- Yes, yes, definitely.

Yes.

- A lot of question in the chat,

in the Q and A.

- Yeah.

We are going to go to that.

Just in a minute,

I need to go one more thing.

But yes,

in addition to cover these basic concepts

in the MicroMaster,

the system thinking, the problem solving,

the critical thinking is there

and supply chain fundamentals.

Dr. Chris Caplice,

our alma mater in the MicroMaster program.

He's definitely bringing these trade-offs

since the very beginning.

The very first time

he's talking about supply chains,

he's bringing these trade-offs

that professor Sheffi is bringing here.

So that's important.

I just want to bring one more topic

because there's one question from Claudia Cardinals,

and connect very well

with my point here.

Claudia is asking,

in your opinion,

how is artificial intelligent

going to change the supply chain and our role,

the role of supply chain in it?

And I think it is a great question

and connect well with this,

with the skills,

we have been discussing, Yossi.

Because definitely, I know.

I know that in your book,

you have this dilemma in between,

is AI killing jobs or creating new jobs?

So I think probably,

we have here a very good question from Claudia

about the role of AI

and how this is going to impact

and change supply chains.

- Well, okay.

Neils Bohr, the famous nuclear physicist,

say it's very hard to predict,

especially in the future.

So I will try to predict the future anyway.

(Eva chuckles)

Look,

in the new book,

here is my new book.

In the new book,

I talk a lot about the book is called,

"AI And The Future Of Work,"

- Yeah.

- in the subtitle.

And I look at all the industrial evolution,

and there were always tension.

Everybody thought that there will be job losses

and they were, by the way,

they were job losses.

But what always happened,

there were more jobs created than jobs lost.

And job changed.

Some job disappeared completely.

I mean, we don't have elevator operators anymore.

We don't have people

who use the phone exchange

and put the stuff

when you try to call some,

it's all automated.

So some jobs were lost.

Some jobs were de-skill.

People who use a lot of skill for them now,

require less skills.

And some job were democratized.

Think about the impact of,

say, spreadsheets.

It used to be,

if you wanted to build a model,

you have to go

to some modeler in your company

and write something FORTRAN or algol,

God knows all this, all languages,

and build a model,

and took back and forth many times.

Now you just download the data

you do it yourself in Excel.

Think about the impact of ChatGPT.

First of all, you can write code,

which means that the managers

will be able to write their own code

without looking for programmers.

And this will bring immense productivity.

'Cause you don't have to go back and forth

between the personal programs

and the person who said,

that's not what I meant,

I meant something else.

That the person who understands the problem

will write the code.

In terms of writing text,

Of course,

ChatGPT is still very far from perfect.

It's still mixed up data and make it,

there's a lot of mistake,

but it will get better.

And to me,

it's a tool.

It's just another tool.

So we will stop judging people

by how well,

let's say, the right pros,

but how will they use ChatGPT.

And can they look over

what ChatGPT created and judge it?

Does it make sense?

Does it not make sense

before they send it

to the next person?

I find it myself

sometimes very useful

in terms of starting to think.

So when I look at the new subject,

- Yeah.

- I ask ChatGPT,

sometimes I get one page of stuff.

And I say,

eh, that's just garbage.

So I try to do something else.

- Yeah.

- I specify something else.

But sometimes,

I get stuff that is useful

and I can start to work from that.

And I think, it's a tool.

But let me add one more point about this.

In every one of these technological revolution,

the problem is as follow,

you know the people

who are gonna lose their job,

because this is the people that you know.

They do the job,

they do the tasks that you know,

the jobs that you know.

They are cashier in the supermarket,

they are whatever.

What you don't know,

is who are the people

who will do the new jobs.

- Yes.

- 'Cause the jobs don't even exist yet.

And you don't know

what's required for the new job.

But I would say,

don't forget,

there are some things

that it'll be a long time

before AI will be able to do.

Things like empathy and morals,

and understanding context,

and being able to judge algorithmic results.

I think that it'll be a long while

before AI can know some people

for a long while,

still have job.

- Yeah.

- And again,

the critical thinking you brought before

as a key skill,

is key here,

because you need to have this critical thinking

in order to interpret

and this information that you are receiving.

This also connect.

I'm glad that you are bringing this

about the new jobs

that this new solutions,

new technologies are creating

at the end of the day.

This connect with the recent video

from the presidents of Walmart.

He was talking about the role of automation.

He said, okay,

automation is going to help customers,

associates and companies business,

of course.

And he was asked about,

yeah, but less manual labor,

of course, less manual labor.

But we might need,

and we are going to need different roles

for associates are going to be required.

New roles are emerging,

less manual,

and most likely,

or probably better paid jobs

because are going to require more skills.

Some people more qualify

in order to be able to do that.

So yeah, this is totally aligned with that.

Okay.

So we have a lot of questions, Yossi.

- Yes, I know.

- So let's try to bring more questions.

I have one question from Remi.

Remi,

he's saying that

in mid-May,

the European Union is organizing a major conference

about beyond growth

and participants will discuss

how to achieve sustainable prosperity

in the European Union after growth has ended.

Remi is asking,

how can the supply chain supports prosperity

rather than material growth?

- Okay.

How do you define prosperity?

That's the question.

European has a vision

of the industrial revolution 5.0.

It's beyond industry 4.0.

Because it looks at growth,

but sustainable growth,

and with social justice as well.

Whether it'll work, it's not clear.

Honestly, it's not clear.

It's not clear

because the question is,

who would invest?

Ask yourself.

Would you invest in somebody

who would come to you and say,

you have two possible investment.

This company will pay you more,

will have better margin,

higher revenue, lower cost,

but it's not gonna be that green.

And then this company will sacrifice margin

for being more green.

Would you invest

when the investment community doesn't work this way?

They go for the highest margin.

So the question is,

will they be able to have its click in 82?

And they have some ideas

on how to do it.

Specifically, supply chain have to keep simply

being as efficient as possible.

But when I mean

as efficient as possible,

I hope,

and the European Union is working on this,

on introducing the externalities.

Emission, for example,

into the equation.

So being carbon taxes

from various ways of carbon taxes.

Because with carbon taxes,

it's automatically,

you will want to use less energy

in transportation and warehousing,

cooling, in everything.

So it works,

the economic incentive

and the sustainability incentive,

goes hand in hand.

But I think it'll be something

that will be needed

to be imposed from above.

Not something that,

'cause the supply chain

or a company will do it at its own,

will be less competitive.

And in fact,

the European Union is introducing border attacks

because they're always afraid that let's say,

imports from China,

you don't have any organics.

It will be cheaper.

- Yeah.

- Even by the good idea,

they admit that without

this environmental regulation,

product will be cheaper.

- Yeah.

- And they want to maintain the competition.

- Yeah.

- So this a move toward,

is just like carbon tax.

It's aligning the economic incentive

with the sustainability incentive.

So once they do it,

then supply chain will automatically respond.

We don't have to do anything different.

- Yeah.

And different countries are using different incentives

and this is a yeah, definitely.

Another big topic here.

Another question,

Colleen is saying, professor Sheffi,

thank you for the webinar today.

In your latest book,

"The Power of Resilience,"

I don't think this is the latest.

I think this is the previous one.

But in any case,

" The Power Of Res-

- "The Power Of Resilience",

is five books ago.

- Exactly.

(Eva chuckles)

You talk about the challenges

with forecasting during a crisis.

Can you talk more about

the ways you are seeing

success with supply-demand forecasting

during a crisis?

- Okay.

Let me talk about it,

because this is tied

to one of the previous question

about the role of technology.

- Yeah.

- Many companies are using gross technology

being machine learning and others,

in order to forecast demand.

The problem during disruption,

if it's a big enough disruption,

there's a structural change in the demand pattern

and the algorithms fall apart.

We saw it during the pandemic.

We saw during the financial crisis,

the Fukushima,

the algorithms are falling flat.

You cannot use them.

Also, there are questions,

we become more and more dependent

on digitization

and we are more and more vulnerable

to subject to cyber attacks.

And we saw how Maersk,

for example,

came to a halt

during a cyber attack.

They were not even part of it.

It was not directed in them.

It was the Russian attack in Ukraine.

In 2017,

Maersk came to,

what to call-

This comes back to,

we talking about AI and jobs.

We need people who can still understand the processes

and can run it by hand.

At the time, in Maersk,

they were writing manifest by hand

with the computer

and faxing it

to the various customer authorities,

'cause the computers didn't work.

But lucky,

they had enough people

who still remember how to do it.

Question is,

if we will have generations of people

who just not know

how to know it

on the computer.

The computer does a lot of the calculation.

Not only they will not be able to work

without the computer,

they will not even understand the underlying process.

What should be done in the first place.

Not only how it's done.

So companies will have to have

a lot of people

who understand the process.

Because people by nature,

are more flexible

and understand the context,

and understand

that if you have to do things differently,

you have to create new collaboration.

You have to create new supply chain

on the flight,

very hard for algorithm, AI,

machine learning,

whatever you want to do it.

And in the foreseeable future,

I don't think it will be possible.

So we still need a lot of people to do it.

- Yeah.

Understanding the processes and again,

connecting the dots,

because you need to connect the dots

with all of the implications.

We have one question from Javier.

Javier is saying,

I'm a supply chain professional

with more than 15 years of experience.

What should I do

to be a relevant contributor

to the supply chains of the future?

So maybe I can take this one

and you come jump in.

- You take it.

Yes.

- Yes.

I would say Javier,

connect with lifelong learning opportunities.

There are great opportunities now.

Online education is helping a lot

to full-time professionals

because are very affordable,

are very flexible, convenience.

You can learn from videos

whenever you want during the nights,

during the weekends.

So I think this online and synchronous courses

are very, very helpful.

We are offering not only the MicroMaster,

we are also offering custom courses

for companies like Walmart,

C. H. Robinson,

and the associates are finding this very helpful

in order to just to learn

and keep them up to date

with new tools and techniques,

and just to bring

this to their company.

So yes.

- Wanted to add that.

- Yes.

- Let me just add something.

That it's not only our course online,

there are other courses online.

But it's also going to conferences,

going to meeting with people,

understanding what other companies are doing,

trying to get yourself into lectures

and presentations about new technologies.

So at least you understand what's coming.

The death nail of people is just,

if you don't keep developing.

You must develop yourself.

Keep developing all the time.

- Yeah, yeah.

And confidence is a great source also,

to keep you updated.

Yeah, definitely.

So one question,

this is more specific question

from Danny Vasquez.

He say, of course,

thank you for the insightful meeting,

wonderful points.

He's highlighting the instant gratification

and the risk about cost

for satisfying those instant gratification demands.

He's asking what are your thoughts

on drone delivery service

that satisfy delivery within hours

without using typical modes of transportation?

Yeah.

it's a very specific question about last mile delivery.

But we have the lab here,

the last mile delivery lab.

- We actually work on this.

There's one of my colleagues,

Matthias Winkenbach is working exactly with a company,

with actual company doing experiments

with vans that are moving

and the vans can send drones

to do the home delivery.

At this point, as you know,

there are many regulatory hurdles on this.

It's not clear that drone can fly freely

when drop bombs on houses

or come down.

But it is happening by the way,

it is happening already in large part of,

it's partially populated like Africa.

There's a company that does drone delivery

of medical supplies.

So there are companies we do it already.

But as I said,

Dr. Winkenbach is here,

is trying to do it,

trying to see

how it can be done in urban areas.

Maybe not in New York City,

but in suburbs

when you can come to a specific home.

I don't see

how you can put it

in the window

on the 21st floor on Fifth Avenue.

But it can be done

in a suburb possibly,

In terms of instant gratification,

we have instant gratification already now.

So this is just another mode

of creating instant gratification.

Maybe, if the drones are electric drones

and I hope they are just for them,

for the noise that they'll create.

If they're not electric drones,

so many of them will be electric.

So maybe, it'll be a more efficient way

to get instant gratification.

Of course, the main question is,

why do you need instant gratification in-

- Yeah.

- And that's part of education

and just thinking about the issue.

But by the way,

government can step in and outlaw

less than two day delivery or less,

unless it's a medical supply

or unless it's something,

- Exactly.

- like you have threatening knife.

Come on.

- For which type of product

do you really need

this instant gratification?

Yeah.

Let me connect now,

I'm going to combine two very good questions

just to end the event.

One from lockdown.

He's asking about

what is your stance on technology?

Are we going to share

or to see companies

sharing data end to end

and collaborating?

This is a great question.

And we'll combine this

with Pamela questions,

so you can answer

both at the same time,

because she's also bringing the importance

of supply chain security

in terms of the data

in order to achieve technological advantage.

So yeah,

data privacy and data sharing

among different actors in the supply chain

is the question.

- But if I understand,

it's not so much as data privacy,

it's data security.

The company want to keep their data.

As people who were listening

to our latest last week,

we had a conference

and one of the speakers was trying

to put together a whole group of companies

to create better forecasting and better corporation.

And the main problems is the lawyers get involved

and data sharing,

and the whole idea

is to share data

without sharing prices,

but just sharing total amounts

of product ordered

and then product received.

It's a big problem.

We are living in a competitive society

and it's companies are hesitating.

They do it on the margin

with companies that they trust.

Look, along the supply chain,

people do share data.

Company do share data

with the customers and suppliers.

The supply will do share data.

But if you're talking

about making a big change,

you need a what's called

a horizontal data sharing.

So companies are even competing with each other.

We share data,

so we can get a better picture

of demand, of supply,

of what's going on

in the marketplace.

Because especially when something happens,

when there's a disruption,

companies start over-ordering

and we have what's called phantom orders,

because they know that suppliers

have to allocate

and give, I don't know,

50% for each.

So they multiply the order

that they get higher number

and which is not really will order.

So security of course,

companies are not willing to share

because knowing the data,

is a competitive advantage.

And my data,

people know how much I order,

how much I don't order,

what's going on,

how do I keep inventory.

People can use it against me.

So companies are not easily sharing data.

- Yes, they are not.

So Yossi,

with more almost 400 people attending live

as you can imagine.

We have many more questions.

But yes,

we are running out of time.

So I really wanted to say,

thank you for a very insightful talk

and sharing your experience with our program,

with our learners.

And thank you so much

for bringing all of your experience here today.

Thanks also to the audience for great questions.

It has been a pleasure to host this event.

If you want to be in touch with us,

just reach out to us

and we will be happy to answer your emails.

Thank you so much.

Thank you, Yossi, once again.

- Sure.

(gentle music)