Why Wagner Coup ACTUALLY Stopped before Moscow
Summary
TLDRThe script narrates the rise and fall of an Afghani-Russian figure, Pagosian, who amassed wealth and power through military contracts and the Wagner mercenary group. After a failed rebellion against the Russian Ministry of Defense, suspected to be fueled by a desire for power and respect, he negotiated exile in Belarus. The account explores the complex relationship between Pagosian, Putin, and the Russian military, culminating in a dramatic standoff that questioned loyalty and authority within Russia's power structures.
Takeaways
- 🌟 Prigozhin grew up poor in Saint Petersburg and was in and out of prison until age 30.
- 🌭 After prison, Prigozhin started a successful chain of hot dog stands, then opened high-class restaurants.
- 🤝 Prigozhin's relationship with Putin began when Putin frequented one of his restaurants.
- 💼 Putin later awarded Prigozhin military contracts worth billions, making him wealthy and influential.
- 🎖️ Prigozhin founded the Wagner mercenary group in 2014, leveraging military connections.
- 🎥 In 2022, Prigozhin publicly recruited convicts for Wagner, increasing its numbers significantly.
- ⚔️ Wagner played a crucial role in the capture of Bakhmut during the Russia-Ukraine war.
- 🗣️ Prigozhin became a vocal critic of the Russian Ministry of Defense, accusing them of high treason.
- 🚛 On June 23, 2023, Prigozhin launched an armed rebellion, marching towards Moscow with Wagner forces.
- 🛑 The rebellion was halted within 120 miles of Moscow, and Prigozhin negotiated a deal for exile in Belarus.
Q & A
What was the initial occupation of the Afghani pagosian before he became involved with the Wagner mercenaries?
-Afghani pagosian initially set up a successful chain of hot dog stands in Saint Petersburg, which later expanded to high-class restaurants in the city during the 1990s.
How did pagosian and Vladimir Putin likely meet and develop a relationship?
-Vladimir Putin, who had recently quit the intelligence service to start a career in politics, took a liking to one of pagosian's restaurants called New Island, which is where the two likely met and hit it off.
What was the turning point for pagosian that led to him being thrust into the spotlight?
-The turning point for pagosian was on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, which brought him into the public eye.
Why did pagosian publicly record and release a video of him recruiting convicts from Russia's prisons?
-Pogosian recorded and released the video in September 2022 to recruit tens of thousands of murderers and convicts for his storm units, promising them freedom if they survived a six-month contract.
What was the significance of pagosian's criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defense on October 1, 2022?
-His criticism was significant because it was one of the first public breaks of Russian war censorship laws, openly criticizing the Russian Ministry of Defense and marking a turning point in his stance against the government.
Why did pagosian accuse the Russian Ministry of Defense of high treason in May 2023?
-Pogosian accused the Ministry of high treason due to the lack of ammunition being supplied to Wagner forces, which he equated to a deliberate attempt to starve them of essential resources.
What was the Russian government's response to pagosian's public refusal to sign contracts with the proper Russian military?
-The Russian government, authorized by Putin, ordered all volunteer detachments to sign contracts with the proper Russian military by a deadline, attempting to remove pagosian from his position of power quietly.
What evidence suggested that pagosian was preparing for an armed rebellion?
-U.S intelligence networks observed signs of pagosian preparing and stockpiling equipment and materials for a rebellion, and unconfirmed reports indicated that the Russian government was preparing to arrest him for insubordination.
Why did pagosian's forces not receive the widespread support from regular Russian soldiers that he had hoped for?
-Pogosian had overestimated his influence, and the support he needed did not materialize in the vast numbers he required. Additionally, the Russian government fought back by creating competing video messages and restricting internet access to reduce the reach of pagosian's messages.
What was the negotiated outcome for pagosian after the failed rebellion attempt?
-Pogosian negotiated with Belarus President Lukashenko to reach an agreement where he would be given a pardon and allowed to live in exile in Belarus.
What were the implications of the failed rebellion for the Wagner forces and the Russian military?
-The agreement stated that all Wagner forces would pull back and those who didn't join the rebellion would sign contracts with the Russian military and be absorbed into their forces. The ones that participated in the rebellion were given a pardon and would face no backlash.
Outlines
🏰 Rise of Pogossian and Wagner Group
This paragraph details the ascent of an Afghani man named Pogossian, who started as a poor individual in Saint Petersburg and eventually became a wealthy entrepreneur with ties to Vladimir Putin. His journey included a period of frequent imprisonment, the establishment of a successful hot dog stand chain, and later, high-class restaurants. One of these eateries, New Island, became the meeting ground for Pogossian and Putin. As Putin's political career took off, Pogossian benefited from lucrative military contracts, leading to his involvement with the Wagner mercenary group. By 2022, Pogossian's role in Wagner had expanded significantly, and he began recruiting convicts for the group, promising them freedom in exchange for service. His actions during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and his public criticism of the Russian government marked a turning point in his quest for power and respect.
🛡️ Pogossian's Rebellion and March of Justice
The second paragraph unfolds the story of Pogossian's rebellion against the Russian government and military. After a series of public confrontations and criticisms against the Ministry of Defense, Pogossian escalated his actions by accusing them of deliberately starving Wagner forces of ammunition. This led to a dramatic situation where he threatened to withdraw his forces from key positions, effectively holding strategic locations hostage. His rebellion culminated in a direct appeal to Russian soldiers to join him in a 'March of Justice,' positioning himself as a champion against corrupt military leadership. Despite initial support, Pogossian's rebellion faced significant challenges as he approached Moscow, with his forces being a fraction of what he needed to succeed.
🚨 The Capture of Rostov and Standoff with Moscow
In this paragraph, Pogossian's forces capture the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov, taking the deputy defense minister hostage and demanding ammunition and supplies. Despite initial successes and support from some Russian civilians, Pogossian's advance towards Moscow is met with fierce resistance. Russian forces, under orders from Putin, begin to dismantle the infrastructure and deploy air power against Wagner's forces. As Pogossian's convoy nears Moscow, it becomes clear that the widespread support he hoped for is not materializing, and his forces are divided and weakened by airstrikes. This leads to negotiations for a peaceful resolution, hinting at a failed coup attempt by Pogossian.
🛑 The Aftermath and Pogossian's Exile
The final paragraph describes the aftermath of Pogossian's rebellion and his eventual exile. Following negotiations, Pogossian's forces turn back from Moscow, and he claims to have avoided further bloodshed. Despite this, there are lingering questions about his future and the impact of his actions on the Russian military leadership. Pogossian attempts to downplay the rebellion, claiming it was a protest that has now concluded. However, the implications of his rebellion are far-reaching, with potential repercussions for both him and the Wagner forces. The story concludes with Pogossian reportedly flying to Belarus, hinting at a possible exile, though the full consequences of his actions remain uncertain.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Wagner mercenaries
💡Coup d'etat
💡Armed Rebellion
💡Pogosian
💡Vladimir Putin
💡Bakhmut
💡Mutiny
💡Russian Ministry of Defense
💡Exile
💡Rebellion
💡Pardon
Highlights
Pregosian's origins: grew up poor in Saint Petersburg, in and out of prison from 18 to 30.
Established successful hot dog stands and later high-class restaurants in the 1990s.
Met Vladimir Putin at one of his restaurants, New Island, leading to significant military contracts.
Founded the Wagner mercenary group with Dimitri Uken, a Russian special forces veteran.
Wagner's role in Russia's capture of Bakhmut and Pregosian's public relations skills.
Pregosian's outspoken criticism of Russian military leadership and Ministry of Defense.
June 23, Pregosian accused Russian forces of attacking Wagner, leading to the 'March of Justice.'
Wagner mercenaries captured Southern Military District command in Rostov on June 24.
Pregosian's hopes for regular Russian soldiers to join his revolt.
Russian government restricted internet access and opened a criminal case against Pregosian.
Putin called Pregosian's actions a criminal enterprise and betrayal.
Wagner forces advanced towards Moscow but faced resistance and airstrikes.
Negotiations led by Belarus president Lukashenko resulted in Pregosian's exile.
Pregosian's claims of avoiding bloodshed by turning back and his forces retreating.
Uncertain future for Wagner forces and Pregosian's fate in Belarus.
Transcripts
why did you Afghani pagosian stop his
force of 8500 Wagner mercenaries just as
we were within 120 miles of Moscow what
was his true intentions was it a coup
d'etat armed Rebellion or something else
entirely pagosian's Origins give us some
hints into what he truly wanted he grew
up poor in Saint Petersburg in the 1960s
he was in and out of prison from the age
of 18 until he was 30 years old once he
was released he set up a successful
chain of hot dog stands in Saint
Petersburg porgosian used that money to
open up expensive high-class restaurants
in the city during the 1990s at the same
time Vladimir Putin had recently quit
the intelligence service to start a
career in politics he took a liking to
one of pagosian's restaurants called New
Island this is where the two likely met
and hit it off and once Putin became
president he started showering his new
buddy pagosian with military contracts
worth one billion dollars to cater the
Russian military pagosian was now a rich
man with Connections in very high places
but he still lacked two things power and
unconditional respect reports from those
who know pagosian personally say he's
largely driven by the love of the game
the thrill of the chase money was never
his main concern according to those
close to him from his perspective he's
battling corrupt Russian elites on
behalf of the Common Man in the
mid-2000s pagosian saw an Avenue to earn
the power and respect he desired his
head of security Dimitri uken was a
Russian special forces veteran who used
his military connections to start the
Wagner mercenary group in 2014.
pregosian likely connected oogen's
mercenaries with Russia's President
Putin this got them access to Priority
Security Contracts around the world
burgosian came to be known as this
mysterious behind the scenes unofficial
unconfirmed co-founder of the
organization however that would change
on February 24 2022 when Russia invaded
Ukraine and it thrust him into the
spotlight in September 2022 pregosian
recorded a video and released it
publicly of him recruiting tens of
thousands of murderers and convicts from
Russia's worst prisons promising if they
joined his storm units for a six-month
contract they would then be set free if
they survived these prisoners would
inflate the ranks of Wagner forces from
an estimated 10 000 up to 50 000
soldiers that same month he claimed to
the press that he was indeed the founder
of the Wagner group he proved to be very
talented in public relations after being
the shadows for decades burgosian
traveled to the dumb boss to personally
oversee the Wagner mercenaries progress
in photo ops he was frequently seen on
the front lines wearing military
fatigues these Wagner mercenaries became
instrumental in the Russian capture of
bakmut which had become the focus of
their war effort Putin had become overly
dependent on pagosian and his fiercely
loyal private military company this was
a vulnerability for him this gave
pagosian the power to criticize the
Russian government and regular military
without fear of reprisal on the 1st of
October 2022 after the Ukrainian first
counter-offensive retook large sections
of their territory this was a turning
point for pregosian and may give us the
first hints of him testing open
Rebellion he became one of the only
people in Russia to publicly break the
Russian war censorship laws by
criticizing the Russian Ministry of
Defense he became an outspoken critic
saying that the Russian commanders were
bastards that ought to be sent to the
front line Barefoot with Justice
submachine gun then in February 2023 he
escalated his criticisms by accusing the
Russian Ministry of Defense of refusing
to send supplies and Munitions to Wagner
forces on purpose they were deliberately
starving Wagner forces of ammunition a
lot of people wonder how Putin didn't
see this Mutiny forming right under his
nose but he probably did this is why
they were trying to starve the Wagner
group of supplies and force them to toe
the line but these attempts to control
pregosian only led him to escalate he
made his first direct accusations
against the Russian Ministry of Defense
when he said the lack of ammo can be
equated with high treason on May 4th
2023 pagosian made a video addressing
shogu yelling shoigu where the is
the ammunition the next day he announced
that since he wasn't getting ammo he
would pull his forces off the front line
he was threatening to collapse the front
lines in their most important objective
he was essentially holding bakmut
hostage from Putin he was using all of
his leverage pagosian blamed Russian
defense minister Sergey shogu for the
lack of supplies and for the death of
tens of thousands of Wagner soldiers he
made statements that shoigu was a fat
cat sitting in his luxury offices Wagner
forces were then supposedly given the
ammunition that they were calling for
and they were appeased for a moment they
stayed on the front lines long enough to
capture the majority the city of bakmut
by May 20th 2023 this earned pogosian
The Respect power love and Adoration of
many people in Russia and in the Russian
military he was now seen as a national
hero by many however by now Wagner
forces were exhausted from over a year
of fighting and they were being replaced
by regular Russian conscripts and
soldiers pagosian sensed he was losing
his leverage fast the final straw came
for pagosian on June 10th when the
Russian Ministry of Defense ordered all
volunteer detachments to sign contracts
with the proper Russian military by a
deadline of July 1st like the lack of
ammunition this was a move authorized by
Putin and it was designed to completely
remove pagosian from his position of
power but he wanted to do it quietly
other private military companies
instantly fell in line and signed the
contracts without dispute but pagosian
recorded a video publicly refusing to
sign the contract it would essentially
mean the end of his power and influence
if he did it would be the end of Wagner
all his mercenaries would be dissolved
into the Russian military unconfirmed
reports indicate the Russian government
was actually getting ready to arrest
pagosian for this continued
insubordination he saw this as an
existential threat against him according
to the U.S intelligence networks they
saw signs of pagosian preparing and
stockpiling equipment and materials for
the Rebellion at this point weeks prior
to the launch if pagosian was going to
act it would have to be now so on the
night of June 23rd at 2100 hours
pagosian posted video footage claiming
to be evidence of a Wagner Camp being
struck deliberately by Russian forces
killing dozens of his men this might
have been a false flag attack though a
fake attack designed to justify the
armed Rebellion that would follow then
pagosian released a series of angry
statements on telegram that were aimed
at every regular Rank and file Russian
sold Soldier he requested that they join
him in what he called his March of
Justice against the incompetent Russian
military leadership in the ministry of
defense that he claimed had misled
President Putin about a false pretense
to get into the war in Ukraine on June
24th at 4 44 in the morning he took
between 8 500 and 4 000 of his most
loyal mercenaries and up to 350 pieces
of heavy equipment to take over the
South Military District command in
rostov bergosian claimed to have 25 000
troops but this was likely an
exaggeration he did have with him nine
main battle tanks some t90s four tiger
Vehicles a Grodd mlrs system a Howitzer
and a pan sear S1 air defense system and
infantry fighting Vehicles if his plan
was going to work pregosian needed to
leverage his social media influence to
convince regular everyday Russian troops
to join his Revolt because he only had a
small group of soldiers he did didn't
have the Manpower necessary on his own
the reason he didn't call this action a
coup was twofold first because it would
be harder for these Russian soldiers to
swallow they'd be less sympathetic to
join a coup which seemed like treason
but to revolt against the terrible
Russian military leadership that they
might stomach second not calling a coup
also gave him the wiggle room to cut a
deal if his plan failed and he could say
it was all just simply a protest let's
look at what signals pagosian had in
front of him at that moment that might
indicate he could convince regular
soldiers to join him we know many
Russian soldiers hadn't been paid and
hadn't taken leave to go home in months
instead of the two thousand five hundred
and sixty dollars they were owed each
month Russian soldiers say they've been
paid several times less that each
paycheck some regular soldiers and
conscripts had complained about not
being paid in two months straight there
are two things you can't mess with when
it comes to soldiers Can't Screw with
their paycheck and you can't screw at
their child bergosian also played
claimed Russian casualties were many
times higher than reported by the
ministry of Defense if soldiers feel
their lives are being wasted away they
might be at a Tipping Point to revolt if
they think they're going to die on the
front anyway the Russian government
started fighting back instantly former
Russian commanders instantly created
competing video messages addressing
their troops begging them to not follow
pagosian and to not follow the Wagner
units they restricted internet access to
reduce the effectiveness and reach of
pagosian's messages Russia's FSB opened
up a criminal case against pagosian for
inciting an armed Rebellion but by
Saturday June 24th 6 59 in the morning
local time in rostov progosian in his
armed soldiers had already captured and
surrounded the Southern military
District headquarters in rostov a city
with a population of one million people
pergosian captured the deputy defense
minister in rostov and humiliated him
during a forced meeting with him saying
our men die because you treat them like
meat no ammo no plans pregosian
threatened him saying that he wasn't
handed shoigu the geriatric clown then
he would take his soldiers and March on
Moscow Saturday June 24th around 10 38
a.m in the morning Putin made an address
calling pregosian's campaign a criminal
Enterprise and an armed Insurgency of
betrayal and treason directly after
Putin's address the Wagner telegram
account wrote The Following at 10 54.
Putin made the wrong choice so much
worse for him soon we will have a new
president
Wagner started heading straight up the
M4 Highway in Russia meanwhile Russian
units were busy reinforcing moscow's
defenses Wagner was breezing past
checkpoints at first in fact they were
often greeted with Russian civilians who
were cheering them on but it's a long
16-hour drive from rostov to Moscow and
this gave Putin's forces enough time to
start tearing up the M4 Highway and
descend attack helicopters and planes
against pagosian's forces Wagner shot
down two combat helicopters four
Transport Aircraft and one plane during
this time killing at least 13 Russians
by 11AM the morning Moscow time Wagner
forces had made it past veronis in
Russia where police and National Guard
units appear to be laying down their
arms and letting Wagner roll through
pregosian was hoping by the time he got
to Moscow he would be reinforced by
thousands of rebellious regular Russian
soldiers airstrikes started to Pummel
the route to Moscow this would be like
if Blackwater marched on Philadelphia
and held that hostage and any military
base in the state until they were able
to replace the United States defense
secretary Lloyd Austin but as pregosian
got closer and closer to Moscow the
support he needed did not materialize in
the vast numbers he required he hoped
support would snowball and pick up a
life of its own by this point but the
signs were not pointing in his favor
airstrikes in front of the Convoy were
setting him back burgosian had
overestimated his influence by 1800
hours on June 24th the Wagner Convoy had
split into three separate columns likely
dispersed by Russian air power within
120 miles of Moscow so close at so far
his forces were likely starting to take
casualties from Russian airstrikes and
artillery but pragosian did still have
enough Firepower to cause a horrible
headache for Putin if he decided to
continue to assault Moscow he still had
that leverage but he would have
struggled to take the capital city in a
prolonged fight this is probably why
both sides wanted to negotiate an end to
this to avoid further embarrassment
neither side was 100 confident in the
outcome I think all of this evidence
presented so far suggests that this was
a failed coup attempt by pregosian he
disguised it to look like a protest in
case it didn't work out in his favor and
he could do that at the last possible
minute once he got within 120 miles of
Moscow and his forces were getting
battered by Russian air power and
additional units weren't showing up he
needed to cut a deal and pretend this
wasn't a coup the chechnyan leader of a
mercenary group said his Fighters were
prepared to help put down the Mutiny and
they were likely on their way to
intercept pagosian it was not looking
good and the walls were closing in the
official Reports say burgosia negotiated
with Belarus president lukashenko to
reach an agreement where he would be
given a pardon and could go live in
Exile in Belarus it probably wouldn't
have looked good for Putin to kill eight
to four thousand Wagner mercenaries and
lose thousands of his own men in the
process right on the doorstep to the
Capitol City the reason burgosian had to
negotiate with lukashenko instead of
Putin is because it would have been
humiliating for Putin a man of such
great power as himself to negotiate
directly with a convict and former chef
of his this is a lose-lose for both men
here burgosian being exiled to Belarus
is not the fate of someone who is
Victorious at 2024 Moscow time the night
of June 24th bergogen ordered his units
to turn around and head back south to
their training camps and the front lines
in Ukraine an acceptable deal had been
reached he claimed pagosian was able to
save face by saying he decided to turn
back to avoid Russian Bloodshed he was
seen driving out of rostov in a black
SUV fans and admirers were still
cheering him on from the side of the
road but what had he really accomplished
it looks like he mainly saved his own
skin but it's tough to tell at this
point it didn't appear like Russian
military leadership would be changed
Sergey shoigu would still stay empowered
seemed like which is what he claimed he
wanted to change all along although that
is still subject to change it didn't
appear like he would retain control of
Wagner forces another thing that he said
he wanted the British Security Forces
told the telegraph that they believed
Russian intelligence Services had likely
threatened to harm the families of
Wagner commanders inside of Russia who
agreed to participate in a mutiny it's
possible that this is one of the reasons
or theories as to why pagosian called
off the capture of Moscow in the
aftermath of the failed Rebellion on
June 26 Sergey shogu was seen on video
with Russian troops which appeared to
suggest by the Russian government that
he was not thrown out of power as part
of the deal cut with pagosian questions
remain could burgosian really go live in
peace next door in Belarus for the
remainder of his life after he was
disloyal to Putin on June 26 burgosian
released an audio communication claiming
that he wasn't actually trying to
overthrow the government and he turned
around after his protest was completed
he was really walk talking back his coup
notably he admitted his forces
regrettably had to shoot down Russian
helicopters Putin released a statement
that he would have been able to crush
the Rebellion whether they had turned
back or not on June 27th flight data
belonging to the Wagner private plane
was seen flying from rostov to Belarus a
possible hint that he had gone into
Exile but Putin is known for having his
opponents killed for far less this was
the greatest threat to his power in two
decades there are many hardliners now in
Russia who are pissed off that pagosian
and Wagner essentially get away without
even a slap on the wrist after they
murked over a dozen Russian Airmen the
agreement stated all Wagner forces would
pull back and that Wagner who didn't
join the Rebellion would sign contracts
with the Russian military of defense and
be absorbed into their forces the ones
that did do the Mutiny were given a
pardon and would face no backlash for
the Rebellion even though they had
allegedly killed over a dozen Russian
Pilots at this point this is still
developed story and any of this is
subject to change will Wagner forces
peacefully assimilate into Russian army
units we don't know they could be
mistreated and sent to punishment
brigades that are used as just human
wave assaults to punish them for their
part in the Mutiny for Goshen a 62 year
old former chef of Putin who grew up on
the same St Petersburg streets was a
petty criminal term multi-millionaire
businessman his influence was created by
Putin and the Kremlin he then started a
failed armed Rebellion against at least
the Russian Ministry of defense and if
things have manifested differently
probably against the entire Russian
government itself but what do you think
in the comments section was this a coup
d'etat or Rebellion or Mutiny or are you
one of the people who believes this
whole thing was some kind of conspiracy
cooked up between Putin and pagosian if
you found some part of the video
valuable please consider hitting the
like button and check out this video if
you have a minute I think you'll really
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