Why Putin is so hard to overthrow

Summary

The script delves into the power dynamics within Putin's Russia, focusing on Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion against the Russian establishment. It outlines how Putin's reliance on security services and siloviki to maintain power inadvertently led to internal strife. The narrative highlights Prigozhin's rise with Wagner Group, his public feud with military leaders, and the surprising lack of intervention during his rebellion, suggesting cracks in Putin's control.

Takeaways

• 📰 Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the private militia Wagner, made headlines on June 24, 2023, for leading an attack on Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and then marching towards Moscow.
• 🏰 Prigozhin was once a trusted ally of Vladimir Putin, but his rebellion indicated a serious internal threat to Putin's power.
• 🕵️ The KGB, the Soviet Union's intelligence service, is the origin of the security apparatus that Putin has used to consolidate power, which includes the FSB and other security services.
• 🛡️ Putin has constructed a 'wall' of security services, military, and siloviki (members of security services) to protect his power and eliminate challengers.
• 🔄 Putin employs tactics such as giving overlapping responsibilities to security services, forcing them to compete for his favor, and purging ambitious individuals to prevent internal threats.
• 🛑 The failure of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2023 posed a risk to Putin's power, leading to a shake-up within the military and security services.
• 💥 Prigozhin's Wagner group capitalized on the military's failures, recruiting from prisons and using brutal tactics in Ukraine, which increased its influence and Prigozhin's status.
• 🗣️ Prigozhin publicly criticized military leaders, a move that was unprecedented and showed his growing power and Putin's tacit approval.
• 🔍 The feud between Wagner and the military escalated to a point where Putin's security services did not intervene, revealing potential cracks in Putin's power structure.
• 🏁 Prigozhin's rebellion ended with his surrender before reaching Moscow, but it exposed the vulnerabilities within Putin's security apparatus.
• 🔄 Despite the rebellion, Putin has not purged the security services, and there have been continued interactions with Prigozhin, suggesting ongoing negotiations or power dynamics.

Q & A

Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin and what was significant about his actions on June 24th, 2023?

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the leader of a private militia known as Wagner, which has been fighting alongside the Russian military in Ukraine. On June 24th, 2023, his actions were significant because he led his troops to storm the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and then headed towards Moscow, which was an unexpected rebellion against the Russian establishment.

What is the historical background of Russia's security services mentioned in the script?

The script traces the history back to the KGB, the notorious intelligence service of the Soviet Union, which was responsible for spying both domestically and internationally to maintain the power of the top leaders. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the KGB was broken up into smaller agencies, each with distinct responsibilities, such as the Federal Counterintelligence Service and the Foreign Intelligence Service.

How did Vladimir Putin consolidate power after becoming the President of Russia?

Vladimir Putin consolidated power by centralizing the FSB, the security service most resembling the old KGB, under his command. He expanded its responsibilities, absorbed other security services, and used it to target oligarchs and rival politicians who did not pledge loyalty to him. He also elevated other security services to create a new layer within the Russian state, alongside the military and the Interior Ministry.

Who are the 'siloviki' and what role do they play in Putin's administration?

The 'siloviki' are members and former members of Russia's security and military services. Putin elevated several of them into his inner circle, along with trusted politicians and military leaders. They are given power and wealth in exchange for their total subordination and loyalty to Putin.

What tactics has Putin used to 'coup-proof' his power?

Putin has used tactics such as giving security services overlapping responsibilities, forcing them to compete against each other for his favor, having them spy on each other, and frequently purging personnel who seem too ambitious or less loyal. These tactics have turned the services and inner circle members into rivals, ensuring that if one rises against him, the others will keep it in check.

What is the role of Wagner in Russia's military operations?

Wagner is a private militia that emerged around 2014 and has been used by Putin as a tool for achieving goals abroad. It has been involved in the invasion of Ukraine, fighting in Syria, and operating in other countries where Russia has interests. Wagner has been known for its brutal tactics and has suffered significant casualties.

Why did Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion in June 2023 pose a significant threat to Putin?

Prigozhin's rebellion was significant because it came from within Putin's trusted circle, challenging the stability of his power. It revealed that the security services, which were supposed to protect Putin, did not appear to stop Wagner's mutiny, indicating potential cracks in Putin's control.

What was the context of the rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner group in June 2023?

The rebellion occurred after the Russian military announced plans to absorb Wagner's troops, which threatened to cut off Prigozhin from his source of wealth and access to Putin. In response, Prigozhin led Wagner in a rebellion towards Moscow, claiming to target Russia's military leaders.

How did the Russian military's failures in Ukraine impact Putin's power?

The failures in Ukraine, such as the inability to capture Kyiv and only controlling parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, posed a risk to Putin's power by potentially lowering the confidence of his inner circle in his leadership abilities and increasing the risk of an internal overthrow attempt.

What was the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion for Russia's security services?

Surprisingly, Putin did not purge the security services for their inaction during Prigozhin's rebellion. It was reported that he continued to meet with Prigozhin and Wagner, suggesting that while the rebellion highlighted potential weaknesses in Putin's power structure, the overall system of protection around him remained unchanged.

What implications does the script suggest for the future of Putin's leadership?

The script suggests that Putin's leadership may be under more pressure than ever due to the rebellion and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It also implies that the internal feuds he stoked may be backfiring, and his grip on power could be weaker, although the structure of his security services remains in place.