Prepare For A Huge Announcement! | Cathie Wood
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the bullish outlook for Bitcoin, with a forecasted value of $1.5 million within five years, by 2027. It emphasizes the growing interest from institutional investors due to Bitcoin's status as a new asset class with low correlation to traditional investments like bonds and stocks. The scarcity of Bitcoin, with a maximum supply of 21 million coins, is highlighted as a driving factor for its increasing price. The speaker also notes the unusual behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders, who are holding onto their assets despite recent price increases, anticipating further institutional investment. The potential for super-exponential growth in Bitcoin's value is underscored, as major financial platforms like Morgan Stanley have yet to fully integrate Bitcoin ETFs. The speaker, Kathy Wood, CEO of Arc, also expresses optimism for other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana, envisioning a future where decentralized finance becomes the financial backbone of the internet, democratizing access to financial services.
Takeaways
- 📈 **Bull Case Forecast**: The forecasted value for Bitcoin is $1.5 million within 5 years, which would be by 2027, and there is still time for this to occur.
- 🏦 **Institutional Investment**: There is a significant push for Bitcoin as a new asset class, which institutional investors are considering due to its low correlation with other assets like bonds and stocks.
- 🔏 **Scarcity Value**: Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million, creating a real scarcity value that could drive its price higher as demand from institutions increases.
- 📊 **Price Movements and Holding**: Long-term holders of Bitcoin are less likely to sell as the price increases, especially with the knowledge that many institutions have yet to invest in this new asset class.
- 🚀 **Projections for Growth**: Bitcoin's trajectory is set to reach $2.5 million within the next 3 years, according to Kathy Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, due to its status as a distinct asset class.
- 🔗 **ETF Integration**: Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley have not yet integrated Bitcoin ETFs into their platforms, which could lead to a surge in demand once they do.
- ⛓ **Non-Correlation with Traditional Assets**: Bitcoin's non-correlation with stocks and bonds makes it an attractive option for portfolio diversification and risk management.
- 🌐 **Global Monetary System**: Bitcoin is seen as the first global, private, digital, and decentralized monetary system with rules-based governance.
- 📈 **Super Exponential Growth**: The speaker anticipates not just exponential, but super exponential growth for Bitcoin as technologies converge.
- 🤝 **Coexistence of Cryptocurrencies**: There is a belief in the coexistence and complementarity of different cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, each playing different roles in the market.
- 💡 **Decentralized Finance (DeFi)**: DeFi, or the internet financial system, is seen as the financial backbone that offers dematerialized and democratized access to financial actions, potentially reducing costs and increasing efficiency.
Q & A
What was the initial forecast for Bitcoin's value in 5 years?
-The initial forecast for Bitcoin's value in 5 years was $1.5 million, with the timeline pointing towards the year 2027.
Why are institutions considering Bitcoin as a new asset class?
-Institutions are considering Bitcoin as a new asset class due to its low correlation with other assets, such as bonds and stocks, which are becoming more correlated.
What is the significance of Bitcoin's scarcity value?
-Bitcoin's scarcity value is significant because there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins, creating a real scarcity that can drive up the price as demand increases.
What is the current supply of Bitcoin?
-As of the time of the transcript, there are 19.6 million Bitcoins in circulation.
How does the increase in institutional investment affect Bitcoin's price?
-The price increase for every institutional dollar invested in Bitcoin is expected to be much higher now than in previous years due to the growing demand and limited supply.
What is the long-term holders metric and why is it monitored?
-The long-term holders metric, an on-chain analytics metric, refers to the number of Bitcoins not moved in wallets for 155 days or more. It is monitored to gauge the sentiment and behavior of long-term investors in the market.
Why is the recent behavior of long-term holders unusual?
-The recent behavior of long-term holders is unusual because, despite a price increase, the metric has reversed and is going back up, indicating that long-term holders are not selling and are holding onto their Bitcoins.
What is the projected trajectory for Bitcoin's value in the next 3 years?
-The projected trajectory for Bitcoin's value is set to reach $2.5 million within the next 3 years, stemming from its emergence as a distinct asset class.
Why are major wirehouses like Morgan Stanley significant in the context of Bitcoin?
-Major wirehouses like Morgan Stanley are significant because they have not yet integrated Bitcoin ETFs into their platforms, which could significantly increase demand and access for investors once they do.
What is the role of non-correlation in modern portfolio theory?
-In modern portfolio theory, non-correlation plays a crucial role in enabling investors to diversify their portfolios effectively, potentially enhancing returns without a corresponding increase in risk when uncorrelated assets like Bitcoin are combined.
What is the significance of Bitcoin's emergence as a distinct asset class?
-Bitcoin's emergence as a distinct asset class is significant because it compels institutions to divert investments towards it, offering diversification benefits and potentially leading to super-exponential growth as technologies converge.
Outlines
📈 Bitcoin as a New Asset Class and Institutional Investment
The first paragraph discusses the bullish forecast for Bitcoin, predicting a value of $1.5 million within five years, by 2027. It emphasizes the growing interest from institutional investors due to Bitcoin's status as a new asset class with low correlation to traditional assets like bonds and stocks. The scarcity of Bitcoin, with a maximum supply of 21 million, is highlighted as a driver for its value. The speaker also notes an unusual trend where long-term holders are not selling their Bitcoin despite price increases, suggesting confidence in its future value. The projection that Bitcoin's trajectory could reach $2.5 million in the next three years is mentioned, based on its emergence as a distinct asset class and the potential for increased demand as more institutions consider investing in it.
🚀 The Digital Monetary System and the Role of Bitcoin
The second paragraph expands on Bitcoin's role as part of a new global monetary system that is decentralized and operates without government oversight. It discusses the transformative potential of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the financial world, suggesting a shift from exponential to super-exponential growth as technologies converge. The speaker recounts a past appearance on CNBC where they highlighted Bitcoin's potential following a historical roadmap. The importance of both Bitcoin and Ethereum in the cryptocurrency space is emphasized, with the speaker sharing their positive experience after a productive meeting between Bitcoin and Ethereum supporters. The paragraph concludes by discussing the impact of decentralized finance, or the internet financial system, on reducing intermediaries and the associated costs in financial transactions.
💹 Bitcoin's Future Projections and Integration into Financial Platforms
The third paragraph focuses on the latest projections for Bitcoin's future, highlighting its upward trajectory and integration into major financial platforms. With a finite supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin is positioned as an attractive asset for institutional investors looking to diversify their portfolios without increasing risk. The insights from Cathy Wood suggest that the demand for Bitcoin from institutional investors is expected to grow significantly in the coming years. The paragraph also mentions the anticipation of major financial institutions, such as Morgan Stanley, integrating Bitcoin ETFs into their platforms, which could lead to a surge in demand. Lastly, the potential for Bitcoin to become a robust investment avenue as its adoption grows across various financial landscapes is emphasized.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Institutional Investment
💡Asset Class
💡Correlation
💡Scarcity Value
💡ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)
💡Portfolio Diversification
💡Blockchain Technology
💡Dematerialized and Democratized Access
💡Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
💡Cryptocurrency Market
Highlights
The forecasted bull case for Bitcoin is $1.5 million in 5 years, which would be by 2027, and there's still time to achieve this target.
Institutional push into Bitcoin as a new asset class is increasing, with low correlation to other assets like bonds and stocks.
There are currently 19.6 million Bitcoins in circulation, with a maximum supply of 21 million, indicating real scarcity value.
Price increases for Bitcoin are expected to be much higher as institutional investment grows.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin are less likely to sell as institutional interest increases, which is unusual as typically they would sell during price hikes.
Bitcoin's trajectory is projected to reach $2.5 million within the next 3 years due to its status as a distinct asset class.
Kathy Wood, CEO of Arc, suggests that the current surge in Bitcoin demand is just the beginning, with major wirehouses like Morgan Stanley yet to integrate Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin's non-correlation with stocks or bonds allows for effective portfolio diversification and potentially enhanced returns.
The integration of Bitcoin into major financial platforms is expected to intensify further in the coming years.
Wirehouses such as Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Wells Fargo have not yet approved Bitcoin on their platforms, indicating a potential for significant growth when they do.
Bitcoin is seen as following a digital, dematerialized, and democratized roadmap, leading to slow deceptive growth and then disruption.
The speaker predicts super exponential growth for Bitcoin as technologies converge, differing from the unsustainable growth rates seen in past bubbles.
A place for both Bitcoin and Ethereum is recognized, with each playing different roles in the cryptocurrency market.
Decentralized finance, or the internet financial system, aims to remove middlemen and democratize access to financial actions.
The reduction of intermediaries in transactions can significantly decrease costs, such as the 2-4% tax currently seen with credit card purchases.
Cathy Wood's latest projections for Bitcoin's future underline a significant trend of increasing value and integration into major financial platforms.
The adoption of Bitcoin is expected to continue to unfold across various financial landscapes, positioning it as a robust investment avenue.
Transcripts
forecast was our bull case was $1.5
million in 5 years so that would have
been 2027 we still have time and uh and
we still think that's going to be right
um if you just look at the institutional
push into Bitcoin this new asset class
they have to consider it as fiduciaries
when you use that Co those code wordss
new asset class what it means the
correlation of these returns are very
low compared to those of other assets
especially as bonds and stocks are
becoming more correlated you need
something uncorrelated yes absolutely
absolutely and so they have to consider
it now what are we saying there are 19.6
million Bitcoin out there right now and
the highest it will ever go is 21
million uh well okay there's real
scarcity value and what what is going to
happen the price increase
for every institutional dollar pushing
in now is going to be much higher than
it
was last year two years ago three it's
you know we're going to get uh into if
these institutions really want to own it
what I found fascinating recently just
learned it this morning is uh typically
when you go through a price move a
bitcoin price move to the upside you
usually see long-term holding ERS which
is a metric we monitor it's an onchain
analy analytics metric um and it means
people who have not moved or wallets
that have not moved their Bitcoin in 155
days or more yes well normally when you
go through a price move to the upside a
very nice one like we've seen in the
last year that tends to start moving
down and it did that true to form but it
has reversed in recent days because what
we learned is uh
gbtc sold some of its Bitcoin so that
was those wallets hadn't been changed in
a long time right now that is done at
least for the time being now that is
done and um it's going back up again as
the price goes up that's highly unusual
and I think it is because um the
long-term holders say why would I sell
now when I know all these
institutions which own nothing own
nothing in this realm in this new asset
class they have to consider it because
it is a new asset class bitcoin's
trajectory is set to SAR to $2.5 million
within the next 3 years this projection
stems from its emergence as a distinct
asset class compelling institutions to
divert their Investments towards it
according to Kathy Wood CE of Arc in a
recent interview with Peter dandis the
current surgeon Bitcoin demand is merely
a precursor to what lies ahead as one of
the Bitcoin ETF issuers she elucidates
that major wirehouses like Morgan
Stanley are yet to integrate Bitcoin
ETFs into their platforms thereby
limiting access for a significant
portion of investors as these ETFs
gradually permeate the investment
landscape a surge in demand is
inevitable furthermore what highlights
bitcoin's unparalleled uniqueness as an
asset it's non-correlation with stocks
or bonds enables investors to diversify
their portfolios effectively modern
portfolio Theory underscores the
potential for enhanced returns without a
corresponding increase in Risk when
uncorrelated assets are combined this
Prospect entices both individual and
institutional investors driving them
towards Bitcoin with bitcoin's Cap
Supply at 21 million its value
trajectory appears unidirectional stay
tuned until the end of the interview we
elaborates on her bullish stance on
ethereum and salana further emphasizing
her confidence in the cryptocurrency
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interesting is the wirehouses which
dominate our customers so Morgan Stanley
all the advisers at these warehouses
Morgan Stanley UBS marily Lynch at BFA
Wells Fargo not one of them has approved
Bitcoin on its platform that hasn't even
happened yet and those are our primary
clients when that happens wait until you
see explosion Bitcoin congrats on your
ETF it's done very well you're number
three now number three you know this was
David against Goliath and you know uh so
this is a a a a very nice win for us now
we're not finished and in fact in our
business what's interesting is the
wirehouses which dominate our customers
so Morgan Stanley all the advisers at
these warehouses Morgan Stanley UBS
marilynch at BFA Welles Fargo not one of
them has approved Bitcoin on its
platform that hasn't even happened yet
and those are our primary clients when
that happens wait until you see
explosion yeah I used to uh years and
years ago um I went on CNBC uh uh saying
I sold on my gold and I bit I bought
Bitcoin and I said it's you know it
follows the 60s road map it's digitized
dematerialized demonetized and
democratized and in all of these things
you have slow deceptive growth and then
it becomes disruptive and we're just at
I mean it's been a slow disruption but
institutional the institutions coming on
um and then governments following um I
mean the the the ship has sailed yes it
has and this there there this is not
just a
technology um it's a new asset class
right and beyond that it's a global
monetary system you know it is the first
Global uh private meaning no government
oversight digital and
decentralized rules-based that's the
most important word here rues
roles-based monetary system in history
in the financial
world uh exponential that concept the
last time investors heard it was during
the teeken Telecom bubble and for them
that end ended badly now they just don't
believe it they don't believe it's
possible to sustain growth rates at 15
20 25% plus per year but what we think
is going to happen is not exponential
growth but super exponential growth as
we get the
convergence between among Technologies
out there in 2017 when Bitcoin was below
$1,000 um and there was a war going on
between the the Bitcoin maximalists and
you know those uh focused on the
ethereum network um Chris berisi um you
may know him he was our first uh uh
crypto analyst and went off to start
placeholder um he decided you know what
we should have a Meetup at our office
between the
Bitcoin and ethereum
supporters and we'll we'll provide rules
of the yeah we'll provide rules of the
road and Bill was the grown-up in the
room set the tone from you know the
ethereum uh side
and we had a t such a productive talk
that I went out and bought ether right
away we own you know I already owned a
lot of Bitcoin um because it was so
convincing that there is a place for
both and is a brilliant adult in this
space yes for sure yes yes and so so uh
yes we're um very excited about the
ethereum network and salana and so they
all play different role and what I love
is there's kind of a little competition
I think competition is always good uh to
keep the other networks honest and uh so
yes we think that um decentralized
finance and we do call it now the
internet Financial system which is
really CH that yes I I I like that
because it's it really uh it really
talks about the functionality more than
this this ethereal idea it's it it it is
the financi Cal backbone and it's the
it's really the dematerialized and
democratized access to taking action in
the world absolutely and taking the
middlemen out of yes everything you know
when we get sand out of the gears yeah
when we did our digital Wallet work um
you know we were we were saying okay
let's try to figure out how much it how
many steps it takes for a merchant or
for a consumer to pay a merchant and
that was nine steps including the two of
them uh and that's and and you know
there are many other middlemen but these
were the most direct steps and that is a
one well a 2 to 4% tax on every purchase
in the world if you're using uh
intermediaries credit cards and so forth
so uh just think about that cutting you
know that tax rate dramatic L is is
going to increase access Cathy Wood's
latest projections for bitcoin's future
underline a significant Trend the
burgeoning surge in bitcoin's value and
its integration into major Financial
platforms with a finite supply of 21
million coins bitcoin's trajectory
appears distinctly upward positioning it
as an irresistible asset for
institutional investors keen on
diversification without escalating risk
as the adoption of Bitcoin continues to
unfold across various Financial
Landscapes its potential as a robust
investment Avenue becomes increasingly
evident Cathy Wood's insights underscore
this momentum suggesting that bitcoin's
alert for institutional investors is
poised to intensify further in the
coming years for more daily dose crypto
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