PlanB Bitcoin Prediction June 2025

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's recent price surge, reaching an all-time high of $104,000, and the current market trends indicating a bullish outlook. The speaker highlights key metrics, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and realized prices, pointing to continued bullish momentum. They discuss the potential for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 to $1 million over the next few years, while emphasizing that this analysis is based on market observation rather than prediction. The speaker encourages viewers to do their own research and not consider the content as financial advice.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $104,000 at the end of May 2025, surpassing its previous high of $102,000 earlier this year.
• 😀 The color indicator chart shows we’re approaching the next Bitcoin halving in 34 months, which signals a market cycle shift.
• 😀 The current Bitcoin market is in a bull phase, albeit longer and flatter compared to previous cycles in 2017 and 2020.
• 😀 The market model used in this analysis is based on on-chain data, not stock-to-flow ratios, and it provides a state of the market rather than a prediction.
• 😀 Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) typically ranges from 40-95, with 65 being a strong upward trend indicator, signaling a bull market.
• 😀 An RSI higher than 70 tends to trigger selling pressure from traditional finance players, which may cause the market to enter a tighter range.
• 😀 The RSI could reach above 80, suggesting a monthly return of 40% or higher, which could lead Bitcoin’s price to approach $400,000 in a few months.
• 😀 Divergence between the geometric mean and the arithmetic mean of moving averages is a sign of a bullish market, and this trend is likely to continue.
• 😀 On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s realized price is increasing, with the current realized price at $47,000, which is above the market price of $104,000.
• 😀 Bitcoin is expected to target a price range of $250,000 to $1 million over the next few years, based on the current bull market cycle and scarcity fundamentals.

Q & A

What does the color change from red to orange signify in the context of Bitcoin's market cycle?

The color change from red to orange indicates that we are getting closer to the next Bitcoin halving event, which is about 34 months away. The color axis represents the time remaining until the halving, without predicting market behavior but simply marking the countdown.

Why is the current Bitcoin bull market considered different from past bull markets, such as those in 2017 or 2020?

The current bull market is described as more prolonged and flatter compared to previous ones. While past bull markets were shorter and more explosive, this one is subtler and has lasted longer, which leads to a different interpretation of its cycles.

What is the main difference between the Bitcoin market cycle model presented and the stock-to-flow model?

The Bitcoin market cycle model is based on on-chain analysis, focusing on actual Bitcoin transaction data. In contrast, the stock-to-flow model centers around Bitcoin's scarcity and the supply-to-stock ratio, which doesn't account for market behavior in the same way.

What does the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate, and how is it used differently for Bitcoin?

The RSI is an indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements on a scale of 0 to 100. For normal assets like stocks, a range of 30 to 70 is typical, with values above 70 indicating overbought conditions. However, for Bitcoin, the average RSI is 65, and readings above 50 suggest an upward trend. Bitcoin's RSI has been oscillating between 75 and 60 recently.

What can an RSI reading above 70 indicate about Bitcoin's market conditions?

An RSI above 70 suggests that Bitcoin is overbought, potentially signaling a market correction. However, the unique behavior of Bitcoin suggests that such readings could continue for extended periods without necessarily leading to an immediate downturn.

How does the concept of overbought and oversold conditions apply to Bitcoin's market in comparison to traditional stocks?

For Bitcoin, overbought and oversold conditions are not as strictly defined as in traditional stocks. While stocks may exhibit a sharp reversal when overbought or oversold, Bitcoin's more volatile nature and longer bull cycles mean that such conditions might persist for longer periods.

What could happen if Bitcoin's RSI stays above 80 for several months?

If Bitcoin's RSI stays above 80 for a few months, it could indicate a significant market rally, potentially resulting in monthly returns of 40% or higher. Such a sustained period of high RSI would suggest strong bullish momentum, pushing Bitcoin's price up significantly.

How does the divergence between the arithmetic and geometric moving averages signal a bull market?

When the arithmetic mean (normal moving average) and the geometric mean diverge, it typically signals a bull market. The widening gap between these two lines indicates increasing bullish momentum, suggesting that the market is in an upward phase.

What does the realized price of Bitcoin tell us about the market's overall value?

The realized price represents the average price at which Bitcoins last moved on-chain, reflecting the market's collective valuation. A rising realized price, particularly when above the current market price, indicates that Bitcoin's price is trending upwards and that the market is bullish.

What does the Bitcoin market cycle model suggest about its future price range over the next few years?

The Bitcoin market cycle model suggests that the price could range between $250,000 and $1 million during this current cycle. While this is a projection, it is based on historical patterns, the current state of the market, and scarcity-driven fundamentals.