Bull Case for AAVE - September 2024 Update
Summary
TLDRこの動画では、TAが自身の投資見解と最新の市場動向について説明しています。彼は特にAave(A)やDeFi市場に注目しており、ETHと比較してAaveのパフォーマンスが改善していると述べています。彼はDefiの復活を期待し、バイバックやトークン提案が市場に影響を与える可能性に言及しています。また、DeFiの多くのトークンは無価値だが、一部のトークンは将来的に大きな成長を遂げる可能性があると主張し、Aaveの長期的な成長を見込んでいることを強調しています。
Takeaways
- 💰 イーサリアムが底を打ったと考え、Altcoinがイーサリアムを上回らない限りリスクが高いと述べている。
- 📈 Aトークンの価格は2倍になり、長期的には上昇トレンドになると予想している。
- 🔄 DeFi市場が再興し、根本的な価値に基づいた投資が再び注目されると考えている。
- 🤑 無価値だと思われていたガバナンストークンでも、適切な時期が来れば価値が見出される可能性があると主張。
- 🏦 AはDeFi市場で最も強力な銀行と見なされ、2025年までにシェアの大部分を占める可能性があると予測。
- 📊 Aトークンの取引量や収益が増加しており、将来的な成長の基盤を築いていると見ている。
- 🔄 ゴーステーブルコインの市場成長と、それに伴う収益増加が期待されている。
- 🏦 他のDeFiプロジェクトよりもAが信頼されており、大手パートナーシップもAを選択する傾向がある。
- 📈 DeFiトークン市場は99%が無価値だが、残りの1%には大きなチャンスがあると信じている。
- 🎙 プレミアムDiscordや定期的なビデオ更新を通じて、DeFiの洞察を提供し、コミュニティの構築を目指している。
Q & A
質問1: スピーカーが投資したとされる 'a' とは何を指しているのか?
-スピーカーが言及している 'a' は、おそらくDeFiプロジェクトやトークンに関連するものです。具体的なトークンやプロジェクト名は記載されていませんが、スピーカーはこれを92ドルで購入し、ステーキングしていると述べています。
質問2: スピーカーが 'a' のエンター・イーサリアム比率が底を打ったと考える理由は何か?
-スピーカーは、'a' のエンター・イーサリアム比率が過去3年間下降トレンドにあり、最近初めて高値を付ける兆候を見せていることから、底を打った可能性が高いと考えています。
質問3: スピーカーが言及している「DeFiルネッサンス」とは何を意味しているのか?
-スピーカーの言う「DeFiルネッサンス」とは、ミームコインなどへの過度な投機的投資から、本来のファンダメンタルズに基づいた投資への回帰を指しています。
質問4: 'a' が収益を生み出す仕組みはどのようなものか?
-スピーカーによると、'a' は清算が発生するときに手数料を徴収し、その収益を将来的にトークンのバイバックに使用します。例えば、8月の清算で600万ドルの収益が発生しました。
質問5: 'a' のバイバックの条件は何か?
-バイバックが始まるためには、'a' のステーブルコインの市場供給が1億7500万ドルに達し、流動性が1000万ドルのスワップサイズを1%未満の価格影響で処理できることが条件です。
質問6: 'a' の現在の市場状況はどうなっているのか?
-スピーカーの発言時点で、'a' のステーブルコイン供給は約1億2600万ドルに達しており、成長のペースが著しいとされています。
質問7: 他のDeFiプロジェクトと比べて、'a' の強みは何か?
-'a' は市場シェアを拡大しており、特に信頼性の高いDeFiレンディングプロトコルとして、パートナーシップや成長の面で優位性を持っています。また、BlackRockなどの大手企業との連携も進行中です。
質問8: 'a' の長期的な見通しはどうか?
-スピーカーは、'a' がDeFi市場の中で非常に強力なプレーヤーとして、将来的に市場シェアの大部分を占める可能性があると考えており、2025年中期から後期にかけてさらに成長する可能性があると述べています。
質問9: スピーカーが他に言及したDeFiプロジェクトやトークンは何か?
-スピーカーは、MakerやCurveなど他のDeFiプロジェクトにも言及しています。特に、Makerのトークンがバイバック提案によって成長した事例を挙げています。
質問10: スピーカーが強調するリスクとは何か?
-スピーカーは、イーサリアムを下回るオルトコインを保持することは大きなリスクであり、特に価値のないガバナンストークンに投資することは無価値であると警告しています。
Outlines
🎥 動画の概要と市場の現状について
動画の冒頭で、配信者は視聴者にチャンネル登録やディスコードコミュニティの紹介を行い、Aトークンの購入とETHとの比較について話し始めます。ETHの低迷とともに、リスクの高いアルトコインがさらに悪いパフォーマンスを示す中、Aトークンが強く反発していることを指摘。これが投資機会として魅力的であると述べ、特にETH比率の上昇に注目しながら、これが本格的な上昇トレンドの始まりかもしれないと示唆します。
📈 DeFi ルネサンスとAトークンの将来性
DeFi市場に対する悲観的な見方が広がる中で、配信者はその価値に基づいた投資が復活する「DeFiルネサンス」が起こると予測。Aトークンの底を打ったという主張は、以前のMakerトークンに対する同様の分析からの洞察に基づいており、バイバック提案などが市場に与える影響を強調します。
💰 Aトークンの収益性とバイバックの見通し
Aトークンの収益性について、特に8月の清算時に6百万ドルの収益を上げたことに言及。これは将来的にバイバックに使われると期待され、トークンの投資価値を支える要素として強調されます。また、バイバックの条件として、ゴーストステーブルコインの市場拡大が重要であると述べ、その成長の現状を解説します。
📊 Aトークンと競合ステーブルコインの比較
Aトークンの成長の重要性を他のステーブルコイン(例:CurveやDAI)と比較し、Aが独自のステーブルコインを提供することで収益が増加する可能性について詳述。また、DeFi市場における信頼性と市場シェアの重要性を強調し、Aトークンが2025年までに大きなシェアを獲得すると予測しています。
🏦 Aトークンの市場支配と将来の展望
配信者はAトークンが今後市場を支配する可能性について語り、その一環としてのパートナーシップ(例:ブラックロック)を挙げ、他のDeFiプロジェクトとの競争優位性を強調します。また、トランプ関連のDeFiプロジェクトにも触れ、その影響がAトークンにプラスであると評価しています。
🏅 Aトークンの強みとDeFiの再評価
AトークンがDeFi市場で圧倒的な市場シェアを獲得する可能性についての見解が述べられ、配信者はその成長がDeFi全体の成長と連動していると指摘。さらに、リスクを伴う他のDeFiトークンに対する保守的な視点を示しつつも、Aトークンの持つ信頼性と価値の高さを強調しています。
🎙️ DeFi市場の見通しと投資の結論
動画のまとめとして、配信者はDeFi市場での確実な勝者に投資することの重要性を説きます。UniswapやAトークンのようなカテゴリーリーダーが将来的に市場を支配すると予想し、他の新規プロジェクトがそれを覆すのは困難であると述べています。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Defi(分散型金融)
💡Aave
💡ETH(イーサリアム)
💡ステーキング
💡ゴーステーブルコイン
💡買い戻し(Buybacks)
💡市場シェア
💡トランプ DeFi プロジェクト
💡ガバナンストークン
💡パートナーシップ
Highlights
The speaker discusses their investment in A at $92, staking it, and how they believe Ethereum has bottomed.
Concern raised about the risk of holding altcoins that underperform against Ethereum, making it a risky strategy.
Mentions that the A/Eth ratio is improving after years of decline, possibly indicating a reversal in trend.
The speaker emphasizes the macro trend favoring A, potentially forming a higher high and discussing an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
The speaker points out a 'DeFi Renaissance' where investors may shift focus from meme coins back to fundamentals.
The success of Maker's buyback proposal from July 2023 is highlighted as an example of how governance tokens can find value.
The revenue generated by A's treasury during August liquidations ($6 million), which will eventually contribute to buybacks.
Discussion of A's buyback proposal, which is contingent on the growth of the GO stablecoin and liquidity conditions improving.
Positive growth in GO's market cap from $100 million to $126 million since the previous month, showing potential.
Explanation of how A’s own stablecoin GO can generate revenue for the DAO through interest rates on lending.
A’s competitive advantage in decentralized finance is discussed, noting its growing market share in money markets.
The strategic partnership between A and Maker/USDS, using external incentives to drive total value locked (TVL) growth.
Potential integration of A’s Stability Module with BlackRock’s fund, giving A a major institutional partnership advantage.
Discussion about the role of major figures, such as the Trump family, entering DeFi projects built on Ethereum and A.
The speaker sees A as a critical part of DeFi’s growth, expecting it to gain a monopoly in the money market space by 2025.
Transcripts
what's up everyone ta here and in this
video I wanted to give an update to my a
thesis so if you like the content please
like And subscribe and check out the
premium Discord the link will be in the
description below so last month or Late
July I essentially said hey I bought
some a at $92 and I'm going to be
staking it um and I also mentioned that
I think a eat has bottomed and this is
important because you know not only is
eat underperforming right but if you're
holding an altcoin that's
underperforming eat then that's a
nightmare right you're taking on so much
risk um and you're underperforming eat
which seems like a cucked ass it for now
um and at the at at the date of
recording last month it was roughly at
028 and right now it's sitting at
roughly
0539 054 let's say uh so we've
essentially 2X and I think this is
important because a if you look at this
I mean ratio we've kind of been going
down only right lower lows lower highs
for essentially 3 years and the fact
that we seem to be finally putting in a
higher high uh of course you know it's
not confirmed yet but it seems like we
are putting a higher High um and perhaps
you know this level is can be resistance
maybe we're going to put in like you
know an inverse Head and Shoulders or
something uh honestly I don't really
know what it's going to happen in the
short term but I think the macro Trend
the overall trend is going to be up for
the a e ratio and for that reason I
think ausd becomes more of an attractive
investment so what did I think a was
going to bottom um and you know I've
been calling for this defi Renaissance
right um it seems like people have gone
way too you
know are like way tooo like one-sided on
like oneid of pendulum whether it's just
like buying mem coins saying everything
else is worthless um but maybe right we
can go back uh from Financial nihilism
to fundamentals um it seems like people
are getting jaded people want to believe
in something I want to believe in
something um and I think a is one of
those things that you know I think
people can actually you know make a bull
case for um but of course the reason I
thought you know a e is bottomed kind of
goes back to my analysis of maker eat
last year uh so back in July of 2023 I
said that hey I think maker has bottomed
and the reason maker um did bought them
against e is because of their buyback
proposal essentially saying hey like we
have a bunch of money uh we're going to
start buying back the token so this was
July of last year um and you know this
was basically like back like around here
right um and since then makeer
essentially bottomed and it's up
basically 2X and at the peak it was
roughly over a little bit over 3x um so
for for the same reason I just think
that you know for most of these
valueless governance tokens they are
valueless and worthless until they're
not um and I just think that you know
once there's you know some timeline or
some hope for Value C I think people are
going to find the reasons to you know
make a bull case for these types of
assets um and of course if you're you
know as deep into defi as me um I can
front run these flows because I know all
these governance proposals I know when
they're going to happen roughly um and
that's essentially the bull case I came
uh or or I laid out um in Late July of
course a lot of things that happened in
since late July uh for example I mean
you know I mean I guess looking at e
right I mean since July 30th I mean this
e right really painful um since yeah
it's just been down only um it's been
pretty bad uh but know I also think that
this kind of highlights um I guess the
Lindy effects and the strength of things
like a for example Stan who is you know
the founder of a uh mentioned that you
know in the August early August
liquidations um a treasury was rewarded
with $6 million in Revenue right because
whenever people get liquidated on a um a
charges a small fee um and of course
right eventually the $6 million is going
to go into BuyBacks and I think this is
like what's important um you know it's
easy to like punt meme coins or like
punt some random new coin because oh
it's shiny and new um but you know rates
are still high I think people have a
higher bar a higher standard for
allocating into altcoins um so you know
seeing metrics like this right which
will eventually go into BuyBacks uh I
think you know forms a bigger bull case
for this type of asset um and you know
the timeline for the a BuyBacks are
still unclear uh so this is coming from
uh the buyback proposal that was laid
out in Late July um but essentially what
needs to happen is first the ghost
stable coin to reach $175 million in
Supply or market cap and then secondary
liquidity to allow a $10 million swap
size at 1% or less price impact um and
also um you know essentially their
economics have to improve uh so these
are essentially the the three points
that needs to happen um but I think
point three is has already happened uh I
mean they just made $66 million a month
ago um the treasury has roughly $70
million I think that's fine it's more so
tracking the gold market cap and once
gold market cap hits 175 like I think
things are really going to get rolling
um and last month it was sitting at
roughly a little bit over 100 um and
right now at the date of recording we're
roughly at
126 um I think this growth is pretty
interesting um also you know because go
is going to be one of their profit
drivers um you know whenever you lend
and buy usdc right or you know you know
a doesn't make that much money um but if
a has their own stable coin and they can
charge their own Bor rate like let's say
ranging 5% to 10% um that's all going to
be Revenue going to the Dow um so right
now the growth of go is being subsidized
um so you know a has a bunch of money in
the treasury um they're paying people to
stake go um so it's not completely
sustainable um but I think over time you
know uh they're going to way to figure
out ways to you know create demand for
go build out liquidity and I think this
growth is very I impressive because if
you look at other let's say
decentralized stable coins you have Curb
USD basically just like losing like
market share right people are just like
not you know willing to hold on to the
risk um and even die right um I mean I I
laid out the bull case like last year
and whatnot um but you know if die is
not growing then it's kind of hard to be
optimistic maker um and we also see uh
you know other things happening in the
ecosystem uh I also laid out that you
know when it comes to money markets um
obvious is essentially a bank and when
you're using a bank you're essentially
putting in your entire deposit right you
want to borrow as Bitcoin eat like
whatever uh you just put you know like
100k of Bitcoin borrow 50k of usdc um
but like what's the capital at risk the
100K of Bitcoin uh so if you're
depositing money into a bank you have to
be able to trust that bank um and we've
kind of seen since I mean ever since the
dawn of time right um a has continued to
grow in market share right it's the
green box or this green shaded area here
and I really wouldn't be surprised if a
has let's say 70 80 90% market share um
by some sometime mid to late 2025 um and
also right it's like sure there can be
points programs and new tokens but um
you know are are you really going to be
risking your entire deposit for let's
say 5% 10% more yield I don't really
think it makes sense right just use a um
so I think I think like you know dis
liness is important and we also see this
where uh when it comes to Partnerships
um you know people don't want to partner
with compound or Morpho or anything
right um even though I'm sure they they
have partners and they will have
Partners uh but you know the big the big
guys um they're going to partner with a
for example uh maker they're going to
Rebrand T Sky which is a whole another
topic that I'm not really going to get
into um but of course if you're creating
a stable coin you need to be on a right
because that's where all the capital is
um so you know sky is essentially or
maker right formally maker is
essentially saying hey you know if you
integrate um usds which is the new
version of d right they're just
rebranding the entire thing um we're
going to going to just incentivize it um
so if you have usds and you're putting
into a then you know maker Sky will give
you more tokens uh which is good right
um you know a is going to utilize
external incentives to drive TBL growth
and profitability for their own doubt we
also saw um you know Al laughs proposing
to integrate uh the stability module
with black Rock's bidle fund right this
is to token treasury AR R fund um and
essentially you know Black Rock
essentially has like half a billion
dollars I believe in treasuries and
stable coins um and a wants to partner
with them and you know like thinking
realistically is Black Rock going to
partner with a or some the 60th version
uh of like a money market fork or a fork
uh that no one's heard of with like a
$10 million market cap with like 500
million doll fdv right like definitely
not um and even yesterday um there was
this this proposal of this Trump defi
project um where you know the founders
are linked to like some uh project
called do Finance um um which had like a
$2 million def hack I mean it's not a
great look right um it seems like a
really low effort project um where the
Trump family seems to be like trying to
I guess you know make themselves look
better against like the dii community
crypto Community which is like fine
right I mean you know at Le at least
they're trying something um you know
that's you can't say that for other uh
politicians whatnot and apparently this
is being built on ethereum and a um so
on first thought I thought they're going
to be forking a right so like Fork a
drop a token on top and then you know
like like pump the token or something uh
but apparently so I mean I could be
wrong we don't really have the white
people yet um but apparently it's a
front end for a so if you go to you know
this world Liberty Finance or whatever
this thing is called and you deposit
like $100,000 worth of e um it's you
know it's $100,000 of e on their front
end but the capital is actually going
through a right so it's I guess I guess
it's good for them right because you
know if they Fork something then they
can mess it up but if they're if they
just make a front end for a then you
know they can't really mess up right and
then you put up then you put the token
on top charge fees or something I'm sure
you know people are going to try to pump
it and whatnot um I mean it's it's not
bearish a right I mean it's
incrementally bullish a so I guess I'm
all for it right um I I mean this was
certainly not on my bingo card right U
but I guess I mean the point is right
it's it's like it doesn't really matter
that that Trump is like you know
creating this new youi project right
because this is not going to succeed
right um I mean who who knows maybe at
some point it'll it'll it'll
it'll succeeded in the short term but uh
you know people are eventually going to
be like you know what like like why does
this thing have any value unless he like
borrows against his hotels or something
um but the point is a right if you're
partnering with the lending protocol um
if you're putting sizeable deposits into
a bank just use a it makes no sense um
and I just think it's interesting
because I think a is a good bet on I
guess defi growing just you know making
a bet that if defi TV grows then a tvl
will grow and if AI market share grows
relative to other lending markets then
you know they essentially they're
essentially going to have a monopoly on
the entire money market space um and
What premium do you put on that I have
no idea um I honestly have no idea what
the upside for things like a a is um
right now it's like at 132 there's been
a lot of volatility right um but if you
you know I mean just think about it
right I mean since late July uh the
markets have nuked uh whereas a is up
and you can see this in the a eth and a
Bitcoin ratios
um kind of going over here right OB e is
going up and then a Bitcoin right um
bitcoin's been stronger than e so
obviously it hasn't uh we haven't put in
higher highs than here um but I think
once we get let's say get above 02
0.0027 um I just think you know the
market is going to start to um
appreciate the fact that a right
probably has bottomed against e probably
bottom against Bitcoin okay how much
upside does it have I have no idea right
I'm not here to to to bring price
targets and whatnot um but as the most
Lindy as the most valuable Bank in all
of defi all of crypto um you know I
don't think
it's un infeasible um for this thing to
hit alltime highs uh so that's kind of
the the case I'm leaning out uh and you
know I've been saying that hey I believe
in this defi Renaissance I think the
entire crypto industry has gone way too
one-sided into SM coins and everything
is worthless let's just buy scams let's
promote scams um and you know if I make
money from a scam it's okay right um
that's not really the world I want to
live in um so you know I I guess like my
goal here is hey like everyone thinks
these def5 tokens are
worthless I'm on like I'll take the
other side of that right I think 99% of
these tokens are worthless but the 1%
that are worth something I think they
can have a Renaissance right uh they can
have their day in the sun um and you
know it's like you know maybe I'll buy
other defi coins too and I actually
bought another defi coin um today uh
which I'm you know it's more of like a
shorter to medium term actually you know
it kind of depends um that the is still
being laid out but if you want to know
what that is make sure to check out the
premium Discord um I share a lot of my
the's on you know other coins um I also
share premium videos three times a week
um you know it's I think it's one of the
better defi communities out there um
essentially you know if you defi is a
lot of work right so just let me do all
the research for you so you can do like
focus on what you do best that's kind of
that's kind of the pitch and also you
know I highly suggest people listen to
this so I posted this roughly a week ago
U and I had Arthur 0x kind of talk about
you know the bull case for a and you
know whether things like Lio is
investable um Unis swap is investable um
maker is investable um the effects of R
cuts on defi um the perex landscape um
you know the valal the whole vitalic you
know Saga right right like you know he
doesn't like defi um you know with like
my podcast and like steady lines and
whatnot um so on a defi right why
Jupiter is kind of interesting uh so I
think this was kind of like a master
class on the current defi landscape um
so I highly suggest everyone check this
out um and to wrap up the video like my
general view is that you know I think
generally uh the market
has it's pretty clear that there are
certain winners in the market right you
know like Unis swap probably the number
one decks OB Number One Lending Market
um and it's going to be really difficult
for any new project to flip them um so I
think it makes sense to bet on category
leaders essentially uh that's kind of
like the view that I have um and you
know obvious one of them um so anyways
thank you guys for watching hope you
guys enjoyed the video um you know
hopefully a ases well right I'm kind of
Bing on it uh all my a is sted I haven't
sold a single a um and who knows maybe
I'll buy more right if I you know happen
to get some air drop stimulus thanks for
watching see you guys another time
bye-bye
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