The Truth About The Porsche GT3 Market in 2024: Unveiling Price Trends That Could Cost You

Summary

The video script discusses the GT3 car market trends, focusing on the US and German markets. It reveals that while most GT3 generations, including the 992 and 991, have seen stable or minimal price declines, the 996 has experienced a significant 7.8% drop, aligning with similar trends in the 360 and F430 markets. The script advises 996 owners to monitor the market closely due to potential value corrections.

Takeaways

• 🚀 GT3 prices have been a hot topic with varying opinions on their future value, but the current trend is more stable than expected.
• 📉 For the 992 GT3 in the US, prices have decreased significantly from two years ago and entered a phase of stability in 2023 with only minor declines.
• 🔍 The difference in price between manual and automatic versions of the 992 GT3 is not significant, with both showing similar market trends.
• 📈 The 991 GT3 has shown relative stability in pricing, with .1s and .2s moving in parallel, experiencing a pandemic spike and subsequent decline, followed by stability since 2023.
• 🚗 The 997 GT3 market is quite small and can be volatile, with prices showing stability or even an increase, but these trends should be interpreted with caution due to market size.
• 📊 The 996 GT3 has historically been a strong performer, but recent data shows a significant drop in value, which is a departure from its usual stability.
• 🌐 The German GT3 market shows different trends compared to the US, with generally more stability and less depreciation, especially noticeable in the 996 and 997 models.
• 📉 The 996 GT3 has experienced a 7.8% decrease in value, which is a significant change and a cause for concern for value-conscious owners.
• 📈 While most GT3 models show only minor yearly depreciation, the 997 models have remained stable or even appreciated in value, contrary to the overall market trend.
• 📝 Inventory levels and the rate at which cars sell can provide insight into market strength, with 991 and 992 models selling quickly and 996 models showing signs of slowing sales.
• 🔎 The discount rates for unsold cars can signal market strength or weakness, with 991 and 992 models rarely discounted, while 996 models have seen an increase in discount rates, indicating potential market weakness.

Q & A

What is the general trend in GT3 prices among value-conscious car enthusiasts?

The general trend in GT3 prices is one of stability, with most generations experiencing only minor declines or no change at all in value.

How did the prices of the 992 GT3 in the US market change in 2023?

In 2023, the 992 GT3 market in the US entered a phase of stability, with prices decreasing only slightly from 270 to 260, reflecting a 2% decrease.

What was the impact of the touring package on the price trend of the 992 GT3?

The initial drop in price for the touring package was higher, but the difference with the non-touring version disappeared from July 2023 onwards. The decrease in price for the touring package in the last year was 4.5%, slightly more than the non-touring version.

Are there any significant differences in price trends between manual and automatic versions of the 992 GT3?

No, there are no significant differences in price trends between manual and automatic versions of the 992 GT3. Both versions have shown similar development over time.

What is the current status of the 991 GT3 market in terms of price stability?

The 991 GT3 market has been stable since 2023, with .1s hovering between 140 and 145k and .2s between 191 and 198k, showing only minor declines.

How does the price trend of the 997 GT3 compare to other generations in terms of stability?

The 997 GT3 market has been stable or even increasing, with .1s up by 8.8% and .2s by 13.5% compared to the previous year. However, these changes are not statistically confirmed due to the small market size.

What is the current situation with the 996 GT3 in terms of depreciation?

The 996 GT3 has shown signs of price weakness, with a decrease of 7.8% between April and June 2024, which is a break from its historical trend of stability.

How do the price changes in the GT3 market compare to the overall car market?

The GT3 market has outperformed other markets, especially with the 992 and 991 models losing less than the average of 7.0%, indicating a strong and stable market.

What does the carried-over inventory indicate about the GT3 market?

The carried-over inventory shows that 996s typically take a long time to sell, with more than 50% not sold within three months, indicating a potentially weaker market for this generation.

How do the discount rates for unsold GT3 cars reflect the market strength?

For 991s and 992s, discount rates are typically 0 to 2%, showing confidence in the market. However, for 996s, the discount rate increased to an average of 9%, signaling a weakening market.

What are the preliminary observations regarding the German GT3 market compared to the US market?

The German GT3 market appears to be more stable overall, with an average decrease of only 1% compared to 4.1% in the US market. However, the differences in slope between the US and German markets are interesting and require more data for concrete conclusions.

Outlines

00:00

📉 GT3 Market Trends and Stability

The script discusses the fluctuating values of GT3 cars, focusing on the US and German markets. It highlights that while many predict drastic changes in GT3 prices, the reality is more stable, especially for the 992 generation. The 992 US market saw prices drop in 2022 but entered a phase of stability in 2023, with only minor decreases. The script also notes that low mileage, well-optioned cars have retained their value. The touring versions initially had a higher price drop but converged with the non-touring versions by July 2023. Manual and automatic versions show similar trends without significant differences. The 991 generation also shows parallel price movements with minor year-on-year decreases.

05:02

📈 Analyzing Price Changes and Market Behavior

This paragraph delves into the year-over-year price changes for various GT3 models, emphasizing the overall strength and stability of the market. The 992 and 991.2 models only experienced a 2% loss, while the 991.1 showed a slightly higher decrease at 4.5%. The paragraph also addresses the 997 and 996 markets, noting that while the 997 market is small and should be interpreted with caution, the 996 market has shown a statistically significant increase in depreciation, with prices dipping by 7.8% between April and June. The script also compares these trends to other elite cars like the 360s and F430s, which have also seen a slowdown in price growth.

10:04

🔍 Inventory Levels and Price Adjustments

The script examines inventory levels and how they relate to market strength. It points out that 996s typically have a high carryover inventory, indicating longer sales durations, while 992s and 991s sell quickly. The paragraph also discusses the price adjustments for unsold cars, noting that 991s and 992s are rarely discounted, reflecting confidence in the market. However, 996s have recently seen a significant increase in discount rates, suggesting a potential weakening market. The script also compares the US and German markets, noting differences in price changes and trends, and suggesting that more data is needed to draw concrete conclusions.

🌎 Conclusion on GT3 Market Stability and 996 Concerns

The final paragraph wraps up the analysis by summarizing the overall stability of the GT3 market, with most generations experiencing minimal price drops or stability. It highlights the 996 as an exception, with a significant 7.8% drop, aligning with similar trends in other elite car markets. The script poses the question of whether this downward trend will continue, emphasizing the importance of monitoring the market for 996 owners. It concludes by stating that while descriptive numbers provide some short-term predictive value, they cannot forecast long-term market movements.

Keywords

💡GT3 prices

GT3 prices refer to the market values of Porsche GT3 models, which are a significant aspect of the video's theme. The script discusses the fluctuation and stability of these prices over time, indicating their importance to car enthusiasts and investors. For instance, the script mentions that 'GT3 prices are a hot topic among value conscious car enthusiasts,' highlighting the community's keen interest in these valuations.

💡Value conscious

Value conscious describes individuals who prioritize the cost-effectiveness of their purchases, often seeking the best quality at the lowest possible price. In the context of the video, it refers to car enthusiasts who are particularly interested in the GT3 market's pricing trends to make informed buying decisions. The script states that 'there is no shortage of people who think that values will go the moon or come crashing down,' emphasizing the value-conscious mindset of potential GT3 buyers.

💡Market trends

Market trends refer to the general direction or pattern of change in the prices of goods or assets over time. The video script delves into the latest GT3 price trends, focusing on different generations of the model and comparing the US and German markets. An example from the script is the analysis of the '992 in the US market,' where it's noted that prices have decreased drastically during 2022 but entered a phase of stability in 2023.

💡Stability

Stability, in the context of the video, pertains to the lack of significant fluctuations in GT3 prices, indicating a balanced market. The script mentions a 'new phase, one of stability' for the 992 GT3 models in 2023, suggesting that while prices are decreasing, the rate of decrease has slowed down, providing a more predictable market for buyers and sellers.

💡Depreciation

Depreciation is the decrease in the value of an asset over time due to age, wear and tear, or market conditions. The video discusses the depreciation rates of different GT3 models, particularly noting the 996 model's position as it 'topped the depreciation leaderboard for a long time.' The script also mentions a 'severe drop of 7.8%' in the 996 GT3 market, indicating a significant change in its depreciation pattern.

💡Inventory level

Inventory level refers to the quantity of goods or assets held by sellers that are available for sale. The script uses this term to analyze the GT3 market's strength, noting that a high inventory level can indicate slower sales. For example, the script states that '996s typically take a long time to sell as more than 50% of the cars, or more, is not sold within three months,' suggesting a potential weakness in the 996 market.

💡Tourings

Tourings, in the context of the video, refers to a specific variant of the GT3 model that comes with unique features. The script compares the price trends of touring and non-touring versions, noting that while there was an 'initial drop' in touring prices, the difference between the two versions has since disappeared. This comparison helps viewers understand the nuances within the GT3 market.

💡Manuals and Automatics

Manuals and Automatics refer to the transmission types of vehicles, with manuals requiring the driver to manually change gears and automatics changing gears automatically. The video script discusses the price trends of these two versions of the 992 GT3, noting that 'the manuals demand a premium but that the development over time is basically the same as in the automatic market,' indicating no significant difference in market trends based on transmission type.

💡Statistical significance

Statistical significance refers to the likelihood that a result is not due to chance. In the video, the script mentions that certain price changes 'are not statistically confirmed,' meaning that they could be random fluctuations rather than indicative of a true market trend. This concept is crucial for understanding the reliability of the data presented in the video.

💡Pandemic impact

Pandemic impact refers to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on various aspects of life, including the economy and markets. The script discusses how the pandemic influenced the GT3 market, with prices experiencing 'a big increase during the pandemic, a decline,' and then a period of relative stability since 2023. This term helps to contextualize the market fluctuations within broader global events.

💡Mileage

Mileage refers to the distance a vehicle has traveled, which is a significant factor in determining its value. The script mentions 'low mileage cars full of options' not experiencing price decreases, indicating that vehicles with lower usage and additional features maintain their value better in the market. Additionally, the script notes an 'atypical mileage development' for .1s, suggesting a higher influx of high mileage cars on the market.

Highlights

GT3 prices are a hot topic among value-conscious car enthusiasts with varying opinions on future value trends.

The GT3 market, except for one specific generation, is experiencing a less exciting but stable phase.

US market analysis shows 992 GT3 prices have decreased significantly since 2022, with a new phase of stability in 2023.

Prices for low mileage, option-rich GT3s have remained stable, indicating a resilient segment of the market.

Touring versions of GT3 initially experienced a higher price drop, but differences have leveled off since July 2023.

The difference in price trends between manual and automatic GT3s is negligible, with both showing similar market developments.

991 GT3 prices have been stable since 2023, with .1s and .2s showing parallel movements and minor declines.

996 GT3 values, which previously did not correct after the pandemic peak, are now showing signs of weakness.

Unsold 996 GT3s have been discounted by an average of 9%, a significant increase signaling potential market correction.

The 997 GT3 market is small and requires cautious interpretation of trends due to limited data.

997.1 GT3s have seen an increase in prices by 8.8% compared to last year, while .2s have increased by 13.5%.

The German GT3 market has been more stable overall, with only a 1% decrease compared to the US market's 4.1%.

German 996 GT3 prices increased by 4.4%, contrasting with the US market's decline.

The 992 GT3 in Germany experienced a larger price drop than in the US, suggesting regional market differences.

Inventory levels and the speed of sales are key indicators of market strength, with 996s taking longer to sell.

Discount rates for unsold cars in the 996 GT3 market have increased, indicating a potential weakening in market strength.

The GT3 market overall is strong and stable, with most generations experiencing only minor price decreases.

The 996 GT3's 7.8% drop in value is a significant departure from its historical trend and warrants close monitoring.

Transcripts

GT3 prices are a hot topic among value  conscious car enthusiasts and there is no  

shortage of people who think that values  will go the moon or come crashing down. 

The truth though, to be honest, is much less  exiting except for one specific generation.  

That’s typically a bad thing to say  in a youtube video, but I am sure you  

will appreciate it if you are trying to find  what’s actually going on in the GT3 market. 

In this video we will dive into the latest  GT3 price trends for all generations. We  

will mainly focus on the US market,  but will also look at the German one. 

If we start with the 992 in the US market, we  can see that prices are much lower than two  

years ago. They decreased drastically during 2022.  In 2023 though, the market entered a new phase,  

one of stability. You can see that they are  indeed getting cheaper but that it took more  

than a year for prices to drop from 270 to  260. Last year’s decrease is then also small  

at 2%. Interestingly, this is caused by the  bottom of the market. Prices for low mileage  

cars full of options did not decrease. Adding the touring to the plot, we can  

see that the initial drop was much higher,  but that this differences disappeared from  

July 23 onwards. Last year they lost 4.5%, a  bit more than the non touring version. Yet,  

I would not read too much into the difference.  Both changes are not statistically confirmed,  

meaning that they could be the result of chance. A question which I get asked frequently is about  

the differences between the manuals and the  automatics version. Usually I do not include  

this split because there is no difference in  the trend. This also applies to the 992 gt3. 

Over here we have in orange the non touring  manuals and in blue the automatics. You can  

see that the manuals demand a premium but  that the development over time is basically  

the same as in the automatic market. As you saw, the 992 market has been very  

stable since 2023 and we only saw minor  declines. The same applies to the 991. 

In orange we have the price trend for the .2s  and in blue for the .1s. You can see that prices  

mainly moved in a parallel. A big increase during  the pandemic, a decline. And a relatively stable  

development since 2023. .1s have been hovering  between 140 and 145k and .2s between 191 and  

198k. Naturally, the price changes compared to  last year are small. .2s lost 2% or 4k. For .1s  

this is 5.9%, but the mileage development during  the last three months is atypical. Meaning that  

a lot of high mileage cars are put up for sale.  Correcting for this we arrive at minus 4.5% or 7k. 

Based on the last few months, the .2 prices  appear to be slightly stronger. Cars that  

were not driven even increased in price.  It is difficult to say if this is due to  

the engine issues in the .1 cars or something  else. But it is something to keep an eye on. 

Let’s continue with the 997s A word of warning is required though.  

Especially the 997.2 market is extremely  small, sometimes only 1 or 2 cars are  

listed for sale. This means that the  trend needs to be interpreted with care. 

In orange we have the .2 and in blue the  .1s. Similar to what we saw before. Prices  

have been stable or even increasing. .1s are  up by 8.8% compared to last year and .2s by  

13.5%. Yet, both changes are not statistically  confirmed. They could be the result of chance,  

especially given the small market sizes. Hence,  please be cautious when using these numbers. 

Alright. So far it has been a bit of a good news  show for owners. Prices are stable or falling at  

extremely low rates. Value conscious 996 owners  though, need to keep a good eye on the market. 

The 996 topped the depreciation leaderboard for  a long time. Values did not correct after the  

pandemic price top. They just continued to rise,  putting the 996 into an elite category of cars. 

Now though, as you can see, we can start  to see some price weakness. Prices have  

been extremely stable between July 2023  and april 2024, but dipped between april  

and June. They decreased by 7.8% or 13.5k. This  increased weakness originates from cars which  

didn’t sell during the last three months. 4 of  them were discounted by an average rate of 9%. 

This could of course be a temporary effect,  996 GT3s usually sell slowly but unsold cars  

are reduced by 1 to 5% only. The 9% drop  is a clear outlier. If the downward trend  

is confirmed in the next market update, we  could be looking at a serious correction. 

But that’s not all. For value conscious owners,  this development is especially worrisome because  

it is also happening in other, similar, markets. 360s and F430s also belonged to the elite group  

of cars for which prices did not decreased  after the pandemic top or did only so by  

a small amount. However, also these two  models experienced a significant slowdown  

in the prices. Values dropped by 13.8 and  10.2% respectively. This is surprisingly  

similar to the drop in the 996 GT3 market. Alright, let’s pull the data together now  

and put the price changes into context. Over here we have the YoY changes that  

we just talked about in dark blue. For context, I  also added the YoY changes for April and January.  

This reveals what we already talked about before.  The GT3 market, in general, is very strong and  

stable at the moment. 992 and 991.2s lost only 2%,  and they have been losing relatively little for  

quite some time now. Also .1s are doing relatively  well at 4.5%. This is slightly higher than three  

months ago, but bear in mind that there is  some randomness involved in these numbers,  

even after applying some corrections. Big changes  though, can be observed in the 997 and 996 market.  

As discussed before, changes in the 997 market  need to be interpreted with immense care. The  

increase in depreciation rate in the 996 market  though, represents a statistically significant  

change. The decrease is unlikely to be the result  of chance. Moreover, it fits in the patter. Since  

January, the rate has been increasing. The conclusions also hold if we compare  

the rates to the rest of the market. Market comparison 

Over here, we have the US year-over-year price  changes for almost all cars that feature on my  

channel. On the horizontal, we have the price  change compared to last year in percentages and  

on the vertical axis, we have the number  of cars to which this change applies. The  

average decrease during last year was 7.0%,  and most cars lost between 11.0% and 2.0%. 

If I plot the 992, 991, 997 in here. It becomes  evident that the GT3 market outperformed other  

markets, especially when it comes to the 992  and 991s. Newer cars tend to lose more than  

the average, so the 992s and 991s losing less  than the average, is a great result if you are  

an owner. 996s though, lost marginally more than  the average. A strange, surprising result, giving  

the stable price history and age of the car. Prices though, are of course only one of the  

many datapoints that we can look at, to get  an impression of the market strength. Another  

important data point is the inventory  level. It is a perhaps a bit detailed,  

but key to consider if you want to  understand the GT3 market. Let me show you 

Over here we have the development in the carried  over inventory, that is, cars that did not sell  

within three months. The higher the number,  the longer the cars are spending with sellers. 

Looking at the developments, we can see that 996s  typically take a long time to sell as more than  

50% of the cars, or more, is not sold within  three months. 992s and 991s on the hand have  

been seling extremely quickly at 20 to 30%. The  development is also much more stable due to the  

market size. The 997 is down, something that  matches with the stable or increasing prices,  

but the uncertainty in the estimate is also high. Of course, a car that takes a long time to sell,  

does not mean necessarily that the market is  weak. There is a lot of variations between  

various segments. However, what happens  to the price when the car does not sell,  

tells us something about the market strength. Over here we have the price changes for these  

unsold cars. A value above zero means that  sellers are extremely confident in the market,  

the increase the price even when  the car does not sell. The opposite  

of course applies to negative values. Looking at the trends, we can see that 991s  

and 992s are hardly discounted when they do not  sell. Sellers know that demand is high and that  

they will sell them anyway. Typically they are  discounted by 0 to 2%, depending on the season. 

The same used to apply to the 996s, but look  what happened during the last few months.  

Discount rates increased tremendously. We saw  before that 50% of the cars did not sell, and  

now we can see that they have been discounted by  an average of 9%, signalling a weakening market.  

As we discussed before, it will be interesting  to see if this downward momentum continues. 

So far we only talked about the US market.  Most of my viewers are from the US,  

but the group of European viewers has been  growing steadily so let’s also have a look  

at the German market. The differences between  that one and the US market can be enormous. 

Over here we have the most recent yearly changes  in the US market, so the ones we just saw, and  

the ones in the German market. The German numbers  are based on the change between November and July,  

but adjusted for the missing three months, so  keep in mind that these numbers are preliminary. 

We can see that, on average, the German  market has been more stable. GT3s decrease  

by 1% only versus 4.1% in the US market. The weakening in the US 996 market for  

example is not visible in Germany. 996 prices  increased by 4.4%. This development is more  

in line with what we use to see in the US. Also in the 997 market there are enormous  

differences, but we need to remember that the  US results are not statistically significant. 

Looking at the 991s, we can see that the rates are  basically the same for the .1s, and that the .2s  

lost less than the .1s in both countries.  In Germany they did lose anything at all. 

The 992 on the other hand lost a bit more in  Germany than in the US. They dropped by 6.2%,  

so 4.2 percentage points more than in the US.  Let’s look include a bit more detail. Over here we  

have the US trend in dollars and the German trend  in Euros. This clearly shows a slight difference  

in slope. Note that the mileage increase and  average age of the car is similar in both markets,  

making this difference even more interesting.  Of course, more data is needed to tie any hard  

conclusions to the difference, but I wanted to  show you what that conclusions could be. More  

about this in the next GT3 market update. Let’s wrap up and conclude. 

The majority of the GT3 market behaves in a stable  way in which prices are falling by small amounts  

or not at all. Most generations lost between 4.5  and 2%, and 997 were stable or even increased.  

Great news if you are a value conscious owner. The 996 though is shaking up the market. A  

severe drop of 7.8% represents a break with  the historical trend, but does align with the  

sudden drops in the 360 and F430 market. The big  question is of course if this drop will continue. 

We only looked at descriptive numbers.  They have some predictive with respect  

to the short term price development,  but cannot predict the long term. 

If you own a 996 and care about values, I think  it is worthwhile to monitor the market closely.