Dalal Street Week Ahead: SEPTEMBER 1ST Week | 2024 | P R Sundar

Summary

The video offers an overview of the market outlook for the upcoming week, focusing on global and Indian market trends. The speaker discusses US markets' positive performance and expectations for Nifty to trade between 25,000 and 25,700 in the short term. Key stocks like HDFC Bank, Reliance, and Bajaj Finance are highlighted. The speaker advises traders to ride the market momentum but cautions investors to be patient. Upcoming economic events, such as the FOMC meeting and employment data, are also mentioned as potential market movers.

Takeaways

• 💼 The speaker is busy with a US market workshop and upcoming sessions in Chennai, offering a smaller, more personalized experience due to lower attendance.
• 📈 The US market has seen continuous growth, with the Dow Jones closing at an all-time high and recording five consecutive winning months.
• 🇮🇳 Nifty has been bullish, with significant gains since crossing the 24,975 mark, and this level now acts as a support for future rallies.
• 🔮 Nifty is expected to trade between 25,000 and 25,700 this week, with strong support at 25,000 and resistance at 25,700.
• 🎉 The Indian market tends to peak around Diwali, with a positive outlook driven by upcoming festivals like Ganesh Chaturthi and Diwali.
• 💡 For the month, Nifty is anticipated to range between 24,500 and 26,000, with 26,000 as the target before Diwali.
• 📊 India's GDP data came in at 6.7%, lower than expected but still better compared to other global markets.
• 🚗 Maruti's sales dropped by 4%, but this is attributed to consumers possibly delaying purchases until next month due to festivals.
• 🏦 HDFC Bank and Reliance are key stocks to watch, with HDFC Bank seeing a potential influx of capital and Reliance announcing a 1:1 bonus.
• 📉 Despite the bullish momentum, the speaker advises investors to avoid investing at the moment and to be patient, focusing on defensive stocks if necessary.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the 'DAL Week Ahead' program?

The main topic of the 'DAL Week Ahead' program is a discussion and analysis of the upcoming week's market trends and predictions, sponsored by Delta Exchange.

Why is the presenter having a US market workshop?

The presenter is having a US market workshop to provide education and insights into the market, which is part of their continuous work and engagement with market participants.

What is the presenter's expectation for the US market in terms of its performance?

The presenter expects the US market to continue its bullish trend, as indicated by the Dow closing at an all-time high and the market experiencing a fifth consecutive winning month.

What is the significance of Nifty crossing 24975 according to the presenter?

According to the presenter, if Nifty crosses 24975, it becomes technically long, which historically has led to a continuous rally in the market.

What is the short-term support level for Nifty that the presenter mentions?

The presenter mentions that the short-term support level for Nifty is around 25,000, which is expected to hold until the end of the month.

Why does the presenter believe this month will be generally good for the market?

The presenter believes this month will be good for the market because of the festival period, which typically sees increased spending and economic activity, leading to market peaks around Deepavali.

What is the presenter's expected trading range for Nifty for the upcoming week?

The presenter expects Nifty to trade between 25,000 and 25,700 for the upcoming week, which is a 200-point downside and a 550-point upside from Friday's close.

What is the presenter's view on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's impact on the market?

The presenter expects the FOMC meeting to be a non-event, predicting a reduction in interest rates by 50 basis points, and does not anticipate significant market impact from the meeting.

What economic data does the presenter mention that could influence the market?

The presenter mentions India's GDP data, auto sales data, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, ADP private sector jobs data, weekly jobless claims, and the monthly jobs report as economic indicators that could influence the market.

Which stocks does the presenter suggest keeping an eye on in the coming week?

The presenter suggests keeping an eye on HDFC Bank and Bank Nifty due to potential large capital inflows, and Reliance Industries due to its recent stock split and bonus announcement.

What is the presenter's advice for investors and traders in the current market scenario?

The presenter advises investors to wait patiently and not chase the market, while traders should follow the momentum. He also suggests looking for defensive stocks, but cautions that even these have seen significant increases recently.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Market Overview and Upcoming Workshops

The speaker begins by introducing the program, 'DAL Week Ahead,' sponsored by Delta Exchange, and apologizes for a busy schedule due to back-to-back workshops, including one in Chennai. He mentions the limited availability of seats, emphasizing a more personalized experience for participants. The discussion then shifts to the global market scenario, noting that the US market closed at an all-time high, with a bullish trend in both US and Indian markets. The speaker highlights the importance of the Nifty crossing the 24,975 mark, leading to a significant rally. He points out that the previous resistance level will now serve as support, estimating it to be around 25,000 for the short term, possibly until the end of the month. Festivals like Ganesh Chaturthi and Diwali are expected to stimulate economic activity, potentially peaking the market around Diwali. He forecasts a range of 25,000 to 25,700 for the Nifty this week and provides insight into the likely impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting on the market.

05:01

📅 Key Economic Events and Investment Outlook

The speaker outlines key economic events scheduled for the upcoming week, such as monthly auto sales data, manufacturing and services PMI data, and the US jobs report. He notes a potential consolidation in the markets with a positive bias. Despite rumors of significant capital inflows into HDFC Bank, the bank's stock did not reflect such optimism on Friday. The speaker advises keeping an eye on HDFC Bank and Bank Nifty, which has been underperforming since the budget, as well as Reliance, which recently announced a 1:1 bonus. He cautions against investing at this time, especially in defensives, which have already seen a significant rise. He advises investors to wait patiently, while traders should ride the current market momentum. The speaker concludes by mentioning his own trading strategy, involving selling put options at various levels and a call option at 25,700, aiming to capitalize on market movements.

Keywords

💡Market Workshop

A market workshop refers to an educational event or seminar focused on market analysis, trading strategies, and investment insights. In the script, the speaker mentions conducting a US market workshop, indicating a professional setting where participants learn about market trends and strategies. The workshops are intended to enhance understanding and skills in navigating financial markets.

💡Nifty

Nifty is a stock market index that represents the weighted average of the 50 most traded stocks on the National Stock Exchange of India. It is used as a barometer of the Indian stock market's performance. The speaker in the script discusses Nifty crossing certain levels, which are significant for technical analysis, indicating a bullish market trend.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of historical market data, primarily price and volume, to predict future market movements. The script mentions Nifty crossing the 24975 level, which becomes a long-term indicator for technical analysts. This is a common practice in technical analysis where past price movements are used to forecast future trends.

💡Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels are price points in trading that tend to exhibit consistent buying or selling interest, respectively. In the script, the speaker identifies 25,000 as a short-term support level for the Nifty index, suggesting that this price point may have a higher chance of buying activity, thus supporting the price.

💡FOMC Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is a key event where the Federal Reserve discusses and makes decisions about monetary policy. The speaker anticipates the FOMC meeting's impact on the market, suggesting that it might not be a significant event and could lead to a reduction in interest rates.

💡Economic Data

Economic data refers to statistical information on economic indicators that influence economic and financial conditions. The script mentions India's GDP data and auto sales data, which are used to gauge the health of the economy and can influence market sentiment and investment decisions.

💡Defensive Stocks

Defensive stocks are shares in companies that are expected to perform relatively well during a downturn in the economy or bear market. The speaker advises looking for defensive stocks as a strategy, noting that even these have seen significant increases, indicating a high market valuation.

💡Stock Split

A stock split is a corporate action in which a company increases the number of its outstanding shares by issuing more shares to its current shareholders. The speaker mentions Reliance's stock split, which is a corporate event that can impact the stock's price and is often seen as a positive sentiment by the market.

💡IPO

An Initial Public Offering (IPO) is the first sale of stock by a company to the public. The script refers to the upcoming IPO of Badet Housing Finance, which is a significant event for investors as it represents a new investment opportunity and can influence market dynamics.

💡Call and Put Options

Call and put options are financial contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) an asset at a specified price before a certain date. The speaker mentions selling put options at certain levels and a call option, which are strategies used in options trading to speculate on or hedge against market movements.

💡Market Consolidation

Market consolidation refers to a period where the market is stable and not experiencing significant price movements. The speaker anticipates market consolidation with a positive bias, suggesting that the market may experience minor fluctuations but overall maintain an upward trend.

Highlights

Introduction to the DAL Week Ahead program sponsored by Delta Exchange.

Host discusses the stress from ongoing workshops, including an upcoming one in Chennai with available seats.

Global markets were positive on Friday, with the US market closing at an all-time high.

Nifty indicated a bullish undercurrent in both India and the US markets.

Nifty has a support level around 25,000, which is expected to hold until the end of the month.

The market is expected to peak around the festival season, with resistance at 25,700.

Monthly options trading range for Nifty is expected to be between 24,500 and 26,000.

Host anticipates the Fed meeting to be a non-event, expecting a 50 basis point interest rate reduction.

Economic data to watch includes manufacturing and services PMI, as well as jobs reports in the US.

HDFC Bank and Bank Nifty are under focus due to significant capital inflows and underperformance.

Reliance’s stock split and bonus announcement did not significantly impact its stock price.

Bajaj Finance surged over 10% due to the announcement of Bajaj Housing Finance IPO.

Market technicals indicate a bullish trend; the host advises caution for investors.

Defensive sectors like pharma and FMCG have already seen a significant rise.

Host discusses his trading strategy, including selling put options at various levels.

Transcripts

hi this is p welcome to post market

report sorry welcome to DAL week ahead

program sponsored by delta.

exchange uh too much work and too much

stress uh because yday and today I'm

having a US market Workshop so it's a

Non-Stop work for me and next Saturday

Sunday I'm having Workshop in Chennai uh

there are few seats left because you

know this is uh second Workshop within a

month so the response uh I'm sure not

going to be very good uh but it'll be

lucky for you you less number of people

I can concentrate more on individual

people so are you interested you can

contact our

office uh coming back to the market so

the globally markets are so good on

Friday US market closed at uh I think at

Dow closed at alltime high and you know

it's a fifth uh continuous winning month

for us

markets I give Nifty also indicating

about uh like about 3540 point

plus undercurrent is uh really bullish

both in India as well as in us and as I

told you uh about a week before if Nifty

crosses

24975 and the Nifty becomes long

technically and then once that level was

taken out I think it took out last

Monday then after that it's a a Non-Stop

rally of course there was some intraday

volatility and a closing basis every day

closed

higher and now uh like sometimes you

know after a long consolidation if the

market breaks out so that that that

resistance becomes support for the next

leg of the rally so by that logic you

know

24975 or approximately 25,000 so that

will be a support for the short term

maybe when I say shortterm maybe until

the end of this month also and because

this month is uh generally a good month

actually uh because we have festivals

you know uh starting from Ganesh chadti

coming weekend uh to deepali so we have

Festival period you know the people like

to spend more money during Festival

period you know that can revive the

economy and so on so generally the

markets you know peek out around deepali

so that's what I'm also expecting so

this time you know the market to pick

out around

Deepa so uh 25,000 is a support and the

resistance you know uh if you're looking

at the weekly option uh the resistance

may be around 20

2700 26,000 has the highest open

interest but we have to ignore that

that's because you know those options

are bought by the people as a h those

who are selling nearer option they're

buying that option for hedging as well

as to reduce the margin money so you

need to ignore the highest open interest

you have to look at the second highest

open interest that is at

25700 so therefore for this week I'm

expecting Nifty to trade between uh

25,000 and

25,700 you know so which is about you

know 200 Point down and uh you know 550

Point higher from the uh Friday's close

I think Friday we close around

25200 monthly options if you see you

know uh it's slightly difficult because

you know fomc meeting is there in the

third week but by that time the option

premiums will collapse uh third week

Wednesday is when the FC meeting but uh

that this time I think FC meeting will

be a non-event I think they will reduce

the interest rate by 50 basis

point uh otherwise coming week you know

uh for monthly the range I'm expecting

is 24500 to

26,000 right so 26,000 is going to be

the ultimate Target before the powerly

so that is my

expectation uh coming back to the

economic data you know there is nothing

much uh in India's GDP data came it was

slightly lower at

6.7% but still compared to most Global

Market so this is a better

rate and then marui sales data came I

think there was a 4% Less sales you know

so not very

impressive uh but probably people are

differing their purchase to next month

right uh usually monthly Auto Sales data

will be coming and you know uh

manufacturing PMI data services PMI data

you know uh like

ADP like there is a private sector jobs

data on Wednesday and then usually

weekly jobless claim on Thursday and

then more important monthly jobs report

on Friday so these are the usual data so

that will be coming so markets you know

are likely to consolidate uh maybe with

some kind of a positive

bias on Friday people said $6 billion is

coming most of the money is coming to

HDFC bank but uh on the contrary HDFC

bank has actually closed in rate on

Friday so we need to see you know like

um you know whether the money has to

come and that day itself or from that

day it can come so that day you know F

have bought only for about a little over

5,000

CR it's not like 6 billion 6 billion

means you know uh it's about 42,000 CR

so who knows over a period of next one

week 10 days that might come so

therefore we have to keep watch on HDFC

bank and consequently uh Bank Nifty

because the bank Nifty has been

underperforming for the last uh more

than a month I think since

budget and then Reliance will also be in

focused because you know Reliance

announced one is to one bonus but still

the price you know did not reflect much

and

basically you know uh stock split or

bonus should not have a big impact but

there's only a Sentimental

impact so HDFC bank will be in Focus uh

Reliance will be in focus last one week

in the star is the bajet group the bdet

finance has shot up more than 10% and

now we know the reason uh they are

coming out with badet Housing Finance

IPO so otherwise you know uh if you

follow technically if you follow the

technicals the markets are long so there

is no reason to be bearish but at the

same time if you are an investor this is

definitely not the time to invest and if

you still want to invest look for

defensives even the defensives have shot

up so much one month before I gave an

interview to a YouTube channel you know

that I said you know if you if all you

want to buy you can buy defensives but

in the last one month and all the

defensives like it Parma fmcg they will

shot up more than 10% right so I always

say don't chase the market so if you're

an investor wait patiently and if you're

a Trader you just write the momentum so

that is how we have to look at the

market so let us see so what is going to

happen and I also sold a lot of put

options from 25,000 24900 24800 and I

also sold call option at

25700 so hoping to make some money so

hope you enjoyed watching this video

thank you for watching