The Lost Decade: The Alarming Truth About The S&P's Current Valuation
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the current optimism in the stock market, focusing on the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio and its historical context. It highlights insights from JP Morgan's market report, including the forward earnings per share estimates and the concentration of the S&P 500 in top 10 stocks. The script also explores consumer health indicators, inflation trends, and the potential impact of AI and data centers on electricity demand. It concludes with an analysis of international markets, suggesting value in non-US and small to mid-cap stocks, and advises investors to temper expectations for future returns due to current market valuations.
Takeaways
- π The S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs, with investors showing increased optimism in the stock market despite higher interest rates compared to the past peak in 2022.
- π JP Morgan's market reports provide a fundamental overview and pricing insights, helping to set expectations and identify potential value areas in the market.
- πΌ Wiky Stock offers a multi-dimensional scoring system for brokerages, focusing on regulatory aspects, business licenses, and risks, aiding investors in identifying reliable firms and reducing decision-making costs.
- π The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 indicates the market may be more expensive today than during the tech bubble, considering the higher interest rates.
- π Historical data shows that the S&P 500's P/E ratio is currently above its 30-year average, suggesting that the market appears expensive relative to historical norms.
- π Analysts expect significant earnings per share (EPS) growth for the S&P 500 over the next three years, pricing in substantial market growth which may or may not be realized.
- π‘ Value stocks, though cheaper than growth stocks, are still trading above their historical average P/E ratios, indicating that even value stocks may be considered expensive today.
- π The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are trading significantly above their historical average P/E ratios, contributing to the overall market's high valuation.
- π The S&P 500 is becoming increasingly concentrated in the top 10 stocks, reducing diversification and setting a record high concentration over the past 30 years.
- π° A small group of stocks, referred to as the 'Magnificent 7', have contributed disproportionately to the S&P 500's total returns, making it challenging for stock pickers to outperform the index without owning these stocks.
- π Shelter inflation remains the primary driver of headline CPI inflation, but it has been trending downward, suggesting a potential easing of overall inflation pressures.
Q & A
What is the current forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500?
-As of July 31st, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 was sitting at 20.7.
How does the current S&P 500 valuation compare to its historical average?
-The current S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 is above its 30-year average of 16.73, indicating that the market is currently trading at a premium relative to its historical average.
What was the forward price-to-earnings ratio during the tech bubble?
-During the tech bubble, the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio reached 25.2, which was significantly higher than the current ratio and the historical average.
What is the projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for the S&P 500 over the next few years?
-Analysts are expecting the EPS of the S&P 500 to grow by about 11% in 2024, and by 15% in both 2025 and 2026.
How does the current valuation of value stocks compare to their historical average?
-Although value stocks are cheaper than growth stocks, they are still trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2, which is about 10% above their historical average of 14.1.
What is the significance of the 'Magnificent 7' stocks in the S&P 500?
-The 'Magnificent 7' stocks have contributed to 51% of the S&P 500's total returns year-to-date, indicating that a significant portion of the market's performance is concentrated in just seven stocks.
How is the concentration of the S&P 500 changing over time?
-The S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in the top 10 stocks, which now make up 35.7% of the index, a record high over the past 30 years.
What is the current household Debt Service ratio in the United States?
-The household Debt Service ratio is currently at 10%, which is below the long-term average and significantly lower than its peak of 13.3% in the fourth quarter of 2007.
What is the projected growth in global electricity demand from data centers and crypto between 2022 and 2026?
-The global electricity demand from data centers and crypto is projected to grow by 80% from 2022 to 2026.
How does the current valuation of Chinese stocks compare to other global markets?
-Chinese stocks are currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3, which offers an earnings yield of around 11% and is significantly lower than the US markets, suggesting that Chinese stocks may be undervalued.
What does the data suggest about the potential for future returns in the stock market given current valuations?
-The data suggests that investors should lower their expectations for future returns due to the current high valuations in the stock market, with the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio historically correlating with lower annual returns as it increases.
Outlines
π Stock Market Optimism and JP Morgan's Market Update
The video discusses the current optimism in the stock market, particularly around the S&P 500, which is near its all-time highs. It highlights the importance of JP Morgan's market reports for understanding market fundamentals and pricing. The speaker intends to share key insights from the latest report and their implications for investors. The video is sponsored by Wiky Stock, a platform offering comprehensive information on brokerage firms, including a unique scoring system and details on licenses, features, and potential risks. Wiky Stock aims to help investors make informed decisions and avoid risks, with a mention of an upcoming event in Bangkok.
πΉ S&P 500 Valuation and Historical Comparisons
This section delves into the valuation of the S&P 500, comparing current forward price-to-earnings ratios with historical data. As of July 31st, the ratio stands at 20.7, slightly lower than its peak in early 2022 but higher considering the current interest rates. The presenter argues that despite the S&P 500 not being at tech bubble levels, it appears expensive today. The 30-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio is also discussed, showing that the current market is trading at a premium. Forward earnings per share estimates for 2024 to 2026 are presented, indicating expected growth and questioning if such market growth is realistic.
π Dominance of Top Stocks and Market Concentration
The video script examines the influence of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500, which are trading at a significant premium compared to their historical averages. It points out that these stocks contribute to a large portion of the index's total returns, with the 'Magnificent 7' alone accounting for over half of the S&P 500's gains year-to-date. The concentration of the S&P 500 in these top stocks is at a record high, suggesting reduced diversification. The presenter also discusses the potential implications of this concentration for investors and the market.
π³ Consumer Health and Inflation Trends
This part of the script addresses consumer health indicators such as the household Debt Service ratio, which remains below historical averages despite early delinquencies on auto and credit card loans showing an upward trend. The personal savings rate is also discussed, noting a significant decrease from historical norms, attributed to inflationary pressures. The script further explores the impact of diminishing excess savings on future consumer spending and economic implications. Inflation contributors are analyzed, with shelter inflation identified as the primary driver, although it has been on a downward trend since early 2023.
π Global Market Valuations and Investment Opportunities
The final paragraph explores global market valuations, highlighting the potential for value investment in international markets relative to the US. It discusses the significant discounts in international price-to-earnings ratios and higher dividend yields compared to the US. The presenter notes the undervaluation of Chinese stocks, despite concerns in some investor circles, and the interest of prominent investors in the Chinese market. The script also touches on the projected growth in semiconductor production and its potential impact on industry margins, as well as the opportunities in small and mid-cap stocks which appear to be trading below their long-term averages.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘S&P 500
π‘Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio)
π‘Interest Rates
π‘Tech Bubble
π‘Value Stocks
π‘Growth Stocks
π‘Wiky Stock
π‘Dividend Yield
π‘Inflation
π‘Capital Expenditures
π‘International Markets
Highlights
S&P 500 is near all-time highs with investors showing increased optimism.
JP Morgan's report provides key fundamental market data and insights.
Wiky Stock's multi-dimensional scoring system for brokerages helps investors reduce decision-making costs.
The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is at 20.7, indicating a potentially expensive market.
High interest rates make the current market more expensive compared to the peak in 2022.
Analysts expect significant EPS growth for the S&P 500 over the next three years.
Value stocks are cheaper than growth stocks but still above their historical average price-to-earnings ratios.
Top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are trading significantly above their historical average price ratios.
Concentration of the S&P 500 in top 10 stocks is at a record high, reducing diversification.
The 'Magnificent 7' stocks have contributed to over half of the S&P 500's total returns this year.
Household Debt Service ratio is below the long-term average, but early delinquencies are trending up.
US personal savings rate is significantly lower than the long-term average due to inflation.
Inflation contributors show shelter inflation as the primary source, but it's trending down.
Capital expenditures by major AI hyperscalers are projected to increase significantly.
International markets appear cheaper than the US market, offering potential value.
Chinese stocks are extremely undervalued, contrary to common investor perceptions.
China is projected to lead in semiconductor production by 2030, impacting industry margins.
Small and mid-cap stocks may offer value as they trade below their historical averages.
Higher market valuations historically correlate with lower future returns.
Transcripts
the S&P 500 is selling right near
all-time highs and it seems like
investors are becoming more optimistic
about the stock market in general every
few months JP Morgan puts out a great
report that covers the key fundamental
data of the market and how things are
looking and I love to dive into this
data and share it here on my channel it
gives us a good overview of the market
and how things are currently being
priced which helps us properly set our
expectations and find potential areas of
value so in today's video I want to
share the key highlights from JP
Morgan's most recent market update and
what my takeaways for investors are
however before we get into the video I
want to let you all know that this video
is sponsored by wik stock wiky stock
provides investors with accurate
comprehensive and diversified
information to help them identify the
reliability of brokerage firms reduce
decision-making costs and effectively
avoid risks one of wiky Stock's core
functions and value ads is that they
have a weaky score system which is a
multi-dimensional scoring system for
each brokerage this score Focus focuses
on the regulatory aspects business
licenses features and risks of over
11,000 brokerages around the world they
also show you all of the different
Securities licenses each brokerage has
for example we can see that interactive
brokers has seven licenses in the US
Australia the UK Japan China Singapore
and Canada you can also view the pros
and cons of every brokerage to see what
their strengths and weaknesses are for
example we can see that interactive
brokers has low trading fees a high
interest rate on cash a wide range of
products and many great research tools
however it also has a complicated
account opening process a complex
desktop platform and understaffed
customer service so interactive brokers
sounds like a great brokerage for people
who can leverage analytical tools but it
also is challenging to set up so if
you're interested in checking out Wiki
stock and finding the best and most
trustworthy brokerages then make sure to
download their free app via the link in
my descript description wiy stock also
has an expo going on in Thailand that
will take place in Bangkok on September
7th the details of that event are also
in my description and with that being
said let's now hop into the video all
right so this first chart that we are
taking a look at shows us the forward
price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500
today and historically so as of July
31st we can see that the forward price
earnings ratio was sitting at 20.7 and
the previous top was on January 3rd of
2022 when the priced earnings ratio got
to 21.4
however at that time interest rates were
only sitting at 1.6% versus 4.1% today
so basically today the market is selling
for a slightly lower price to earnings
ratio but the interest rate on bonds is
significantly higher and therefore you
could make the argument that the stock
market is actually more expensive today
versus the peak in 2022 now we can also
see that the forward priced earnings
ratio of the S&P 500 during the tech
bubble was 25.2 and at this time the
10-year bond yield was 6.2% so this
combination of a very high price
earnings ratio and a high yield on bonds
does show us that the stock market was
incredibly expensive during the tech
bubble and I personally do not think
that the market is near Tech bubble
levels quite yet and really not even
close but in general I do think that the
S&P 500 is looking expensive today now
moving on to the next screenshot this
one shows us the 30-year average forward
pric earnings ratio of the S&P 500 which
is
16.73% standard deviation and minus one
standard deviation and a plus one
standard deviation is a forward priced
earnings ratio of 20 and once again we
can set the market is trading for 20.7
today which is actually quite expensive
we can also see that there was only two
times in the past 30 years where the
market was trading for this high of a
price the previous time was in the 2020
2021 era and also during the tech bubble
of 2000 and to me this does suggest that
the S&P 500 is looking expensive to
today all right now this next screenshot
shows us the forward earnings per share
estimates for the S&P 500 and for 2024
analysts are expecting earnings per
share across the S&P to grow by about
11% now in 2025 and in 2026 analysts are
expecting the EPS of the S&P to grow by
15% so this is what the market I think
is currently pricing in is quite a bit
of growth over the next 3 years and this
is what analysts are expecting and as I
just said I personally think that this
is a lot of growth that the market
Market is pricing in and you can ask
yourself if you think that the market is
actually going to see 15% annual growth
over the next 3 years or not this next
chart shows us the value versus growth
relative valuations and we can see that
right now value stocks are looking
cheaper than growth stocks however if we
take a look at this bottom table right
here we can see that the current forward
priced earnings ratio of value stocks is
sitting at 16.2 and their long-term
average is 14.1 so even though value
stocks are looking quite a bit cheaper
than growth stocks it is worth pointing
out that value stocks are still selling
about 10% above their historical average
priced earnings ratios and therefore
even value stocks could be argued to be
looking expensive today this next chart
is an interesting one because it shows
us the price to earnings ratio of the
top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 the
remaining stocks and the total priced
earnings ratio of the S&P 500 on a
forward basis so the top 10 stocks are
currently trading for a forward priced
earnings ratio of 31.3 and their
long-term average is 20.5 which means
that the top 10 stocks are trading about
53% above their historical average price
ratios and again are looking quite
expensive the remaining stocks in the
S&P 500 are trading about 11% above
their historical average price ratios
and in general the entire S&P 500 is
trading about 25% above its long-term
historical averages so in general it
looks like stocks in the S&P are quite
expensive today the weight of the top 10
stocks in the S&P 500 is also sitting at
35.7% now or basically 36% and really
since about 2016 the S&P 500 has
becoming more and more concentrated in
these top 10 stocks and this
concentration is sitting at a record
high over the past 30 years with the
previous High being during the tech
bubble where the top 10 stocks made up
about 27% of the S&P 500 so basically
the S&P is becoming more concentrated in
a handful of stocks and the
diversification in the S&P is becoming
less and less all right this next table
right here shows us where the returns of
the S&P 500 have been coming from so the
Magnificent 7 so far year to date are up
29% and they have produced 51% of the
snp's total returns so the majority of
the snp's returns so far this year have
come from just seven stocks okay now the
remaining stocks within the S&P have
generated returns of about 7% and in
general have contributed about 49% of
the index's total returns so if you are
a stock picker and you did not own the
Magnificent 7 then it has been extremely
challenging to outperform the S&P so far
this year now it's also worth noting
that the Magnificent 7 have been seeing
significantly more earnings per share
growth than the remainder of the S&P and
they are projected to see more earnings
growth over the next two quarters so
these seven businesses are growing
significantly faster than the remaining
493 stocks in the S&P which does kind of
make sense as to why their stocks are
performing better as well because stocks
do follow the underlying businesses all
right moving on now this next chart gets
us into the consumer health and this is
the household Debt Service ratio which
are the debt payments as a percentage of
people's disposable personal income and
we can see that the household Debt
Service ratio is currently sitting at
10% which is actually still below the
long-term average over the past about 45
years now the highest it got was in the
fourth quarter of 2007 at 13.3% and we
aren't quite back to those levels right
now and we are actually a pretty far
ways away from those levels still and
again we are actually below the
long-term historical average household
Debt Service ratio however if we take a
look at flows into early delinquencies
we can see that auto loans and credit
card loans are ticking up quite a bit
and they are actually continuing to go
up it also looks like the early
delinquencies of these loans are
actually getting above their historical
averages however we can see that back
here in the Great Recession these
numbers got up to roughly 14% so they do
still have quite a long ways to go but
it is worth noting that the early
delinquencies in these loans are
trending up in a pretty big way this
next chart shows us the personal savings
rate of people in the United States and
we can see that so far year-to date in
2024 it's only
3.6% which is well below the long-term
average of
8.5% so people are not really saving
that much money right now and this is
probably due to all of the inflation
that we have seen over the past four
years now we can also see the household
excess Savings in terms of trillions of
US dollar and we can see that it peaked
here at 2.3 trillion during covid in
2021 and in 2022 when there was a lot of
stimulus going on within the economy
since then people have been spending
their excess savings and now excess
savings is sitting at $500 billion which
means that it is down about 1.8 trillion
from the peak only 2 years ago and it is
going to be interesting to see what
happens when people's excess savings do
run out because this trend is clearly
going down so when it hits zero are
people going to be spending less money
or what is going to happen to the
economy that is something that I am
interested to see and something that I
am kind of anticipating will happen
sometime soon this next chart shows us
the contributors to headline CPI
inflation and we can actually see that
shelter inflation is still the number
one source of inflation however it has
been trending down since about February
of 2023 so over the past 18 months
shelter inflation has been trending down
and it's still is today overall headline
inflation is also sitting at 3% which is
the lowest it has been since June of
2023 and overall the trend of inflation
is coming down and a lot of people are
speculating that this means that the FED
will lower interest rates sometime quite
soon in fact by the end of the year the
fomc is estimating that interest rates
will drop to 5.1% versus the 5.38% that
they are currently at today the FED is
then expecting interest rates to drop to
4.1% by the end of 2025 and then at 3.1%
by the end of 2026 so basically interest
rates are projected to drop by roughly
2% over the next 2 years and I do think
that the market is currently pricing
this in all right now this next slide
shows us the capital expenditures from
the major Ai hyperscalers and we can see
that these companies have continued to
spend more and more money on Capital
expenditures and in the year of 2024
they are now projected to spend
88 billion which is roughly 50% more
than they spent in 20 23 so the capital
expenditures of these businesses are
continuing to explode and Skyrocket now
what's also interesting is the global
electricity demand from data centers and
crypto is projected to grow by 80% from
2022 to 2026 this means that the world
is projected to continue consuming a lot
more electricity and we are going to
need a lot more electricity Supply to
actually power and meet the demand of
all of these data centers that are being
built around the world and these data
centers that are actually powering the
AI Revolution this is something that
Bruce Flatt and Mark Zuckerberg have
both talked about as well and this is
something that I have covered on my
channel before and it is interesting for
me to see that there is so much
projected electricity demand because
it's not really something that is talked
about in the stock market a lot today is
how these electricity providers could
see massive Tailwinds over the coming
decades and this is one of the reasons
why Brookfield is the largest position
in my portfolio all right moving on to
the international charts now here we can
see the inter International price to
earnings ratio discount versus the US
price to earnings ratio and we can see
that relative to the US markets the
international markets are actually
looking quite cheap with our largest
discount in 20 years now by far so it
does look like there could be value
found in the international markets
versus the US markets right now we can
also see the difference in dividend
yields versus the international markets
and the US markets and right now the
international markets are offering a
pretty high dividend yield versus the US
markets which could also suggest once
again that the international markets are
looking cheap relative to US stocks
today moving on this next chart shows us
the global valuations of different
markets and here we can see that the US
is trading for that 20.7 forward priced
earnings ratio and its 25-year average
was that 16.7 so the US markets are
selling well above their long-term
historical average pric earnings ratios
Japan is currently selling below its
long-term average priced earnings ratios
so is Europe and so is China the
Emerging Markets are trading slightly
above their price to earnings ratios and
overall it does look like China is
offering the largest discount right now
by far the Chinese markets are trading
for a price to earnings ratio of only
9.3 which is an earnings yield of around
11% and overall it does look like
Chinese stocks are extremely undervalued
right now assuming that nothing major
happens to the Chinese economy going
forward this is also interesting because
a lot of super investors have been
buying Chinese stocks and even Howard
Marx has said he is happy invested in
China right now so while a lot of
investors are scared of the Chinese
markets or saying that the Chinese
markets are uninvestable a lot of super
investors have actually been putting
more money and allocating more of their
portfolios into Chinese stocks so we're
going to have to see how this plays out
over the long term this next chart also
shows us that China is projected to
become the leader in semiconductor
production by 2030 it also seems like
countries are racing to produce more
semiconductors on their own and you have
to wonder what this increase in Supply
semiconductors will due to the margins
within this industry over the coming
years this next screenshot comes from
yini research so we're actually moving
away from the JP Morgan Guide to the
markets now but I do think that this
chart and the following information is
very useful for investors to know so
this chart shows us the S&P 500 large
cap forward priced earnings ratio versus
the S&P 400 midcap index and the S&P 600
small cap index and right here we can
see that the mid and small cap indexes
are trading for forward priced earnings
ratio
well below the S&P 500 overall if we
also take a look at these two indexes
versus their long-term historical
averages we can see that they're
actually selling around their long-term
historical averages if not below their
historical averages therefore in my
opinion this data does suggest that
there could be value found in small and
midcap stocks in the market right now
this screenshot was also shared in my
patreon community which shows the
valuations of small cap stocks versus
large cap stocks and we can see that the
relative valuation between the S&P 600
small cap index versus the S&P 100 large
cap index is at about a 60e low right
now and the last time that small cap
stocks were looking this cheap was
during the tech bubble so all of this
data is suggesting that small cap stocks
are actually looking quite undervalued
right now and this could be an area of
value for investors to seek out now the
last chart that I want to show you all
was also shared in my patreon community
and this chart right here shows us that
higher valuations equal lower returns
and what this chart is specifically
showing us is the S&P 500 forward price
to earnings ratio versus its annualized
total return over the following 10 years
and you can clearly see that
historically the annual returns lower as
the price to earnings ratio of the S&P
500 increases we can also see that
around a 23 forward priced earnings
ratio the 10-year future returns go
negative and as we saw we are currently
at a 21 forward priced earnings ratio in
the S&P 500 and historically when the P
has traded for this price the 10-year
returns have been around 3% this
suggests that investors should lower
their expectations for future returns
due to the market currently being quite
expensive before he died Charlie Monker
was also saying that there could be a
lost decade which is where the index
doesn't produce returns for a decade due
to the high prices in the stock market
today it's also worth noting that there
has been many times throughout history
where the S&P has not produced returns
for a decade if if not longer and I do
believe that this could happen again so
what my main takeaways from all of these
charts are is that index investors do
need to lower their expectations for
future returns there also is a lot of
value outside of the US markets and in
small and midcap stocks so these could
be areas where investors could find
undervalued stocks I also personally
think that we are in a stock Pickers
Market because personally I do not think
that the S&P 500 and the indexes are
going to produce strong returns over the
next 5 to 10 10 years and I do think
that the large returns will come to
stock Pickers who can find individual
stocks that are currently undervalued
and offering significant future growth
but with all that being said that is
going to wrap up the video for today
everyone and if you did enjoy this video
then please remember to leave a like on
it and if you want to stick around and
see more stock market related content
like this then please consider
subscribing to my channel as well as I
said I like to go through all of these
charts on a quarterly basis whenever JP
Morgan updates their Guide to the
markets but that is going to be all for
me today every one and thank you all so
much for tuning in as always I truly do
appreciate it and I really hope to see
you all again in my next video
Browse More Related Video
Should We All Just Buy The S&P 500?
WARNING: Brace for a Flood of Stock Market Crash Videos
Inflation is going to fall like a rock, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
Stock Market at New Highs? Here's What I'm Buying Part 1 of 2
This is Where Your Furus Tend to Blow Up
2024 Is Set To Break Another Stock Market Record...
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)