The Lost Decade: The Alarming Truth About The S&P's Current Valuation

Daniel Pronk
22 Aug 202417:36

Summary

TLDRThe video script discusses the current optimism in the stock market, focusing on the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio and its historical context. It highlights insights from JP Morgan's market report, including the forward earnings per share estimates and the concentration of the S&P 500 in top 10 stocks. The script also explores consumer health indicators, inflation trends, and the potential impact of AI and data centers on electricity demand. It concludes with an analysis of international markets, suggesting value in non-US and small to mid-cap stocks, and advises investors to temper expectations for future returns due to current market valuations.

Takeaways

  • πŸ“ˆ The S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs, with investors showing increased optimism in the stock market despite higher interest rates compared to the past peak in 2022.
  • πŸ“Š JP Morgan's market reports provide a fundamental overview and pricing insights, helping to set expectations and identify potential value areas in the market.
  • πŸ’Ό Wiky Stock offers a multi-dimensional scoring system for brokerages, focusing on regulatory aspects, business licenses, and risks, aiding investors in identifying reliable firms and reducing decision-making costs.
  • πŸ“‰ The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 indicates the market may be more expensive today than during the tech bubble, considering the higher interest rates.
  • πŸ“š Historical data shows that the S&P 500's P/E ratio is currently above its 30-year average, suggesting that the market appears expensive relative to historical norms.
  • πŸ“ˆ Analysts expect significant earnings per share (EPS) growth for the S&P 500 over the next three years, pricing in substantial market growth which may or may not be realized.
  • πŸ’‘ Value stocks, though cheaper than growth stocks, are still trading above their historical average P/E ratios, indicating that even value stocks may be considered expensive today.
  • πŸ” The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are trading significantly above their historical average P/E ratios, contributing to the overall market's high valuation.
  • 🌐 The S&P 500 is becoming increasingly concentrated in the top 10 stocks, reducing diversification and setting a record high concentration over the past 30 years.
  • πŸ’° A small group of stocks, referred to as the 'Magnificent 7', have contributed disproportionately to the S&P 500's total returns, making it challenging for stock pickers to outperform the index without owning these stocks.
  • 🏠 Shelter inflation remains the primary driver of headline CPI inflation, but it has been trending downward, suggesting a potential easing of overall inflation pressures.

Q & A

  • What is the current forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500?

    -As of July 31st, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 was sitting at 20.7.

  • How does the current S&P 500 valuation compare to its historical average?

    -The current S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 is above its 30-year average of 16.73, indicating that the market is currently trading at a premium relative to its historical average.

  • What was the forward price-to-earnings ratio during the tech bubble?

    -During the tech bubble, the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio reached 25.2, which was significantly higher than the current ratio and the historical average.

  • What is the projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for the S&P 500 over the next few years?

    -Analysts are expecting the EPS of the S&P 500 to grow by about 11% in 2024, and by 15% in both 2025 and 2026.

  • How does the current valuation of value stocks compare to their historical average?

    -Although value stocks are cheaper than growth stocks, they are still trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2, which is about 10% above their historical average of 14.1.

  • What is the significance of the 'Magnificent 7' stocks in the S&P 500?

    -The 'Magnificent 7' stocks have contributed to 51% of the S&P 500's total returns year-to-date, indicating that a significant portion of the market's performance is concentrated in just seven stocks.

  • How is the concentration of the S&P 500 changing over time?

    -The S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in the top 10 stocks, which now make up 35.7% of the index, a record high over the past 30 years.

  • What is the current household Debt Service ratio in the United States?

    -The household Debt Service ratio is currently at 10%, which is below the long-term average and significantly lower than its peak of 13.3% in the fourth quarter of 2007.

  • What is the projected growth in global electricity demand from data centers and crypto between 2022 and 2026?

    -The global electricity demand from data centers and crypto is projected to grow by 80% from 2022 to 2026.

  • How does the current valuation of Chinese stocks compare to other global markets?

    -Chinese stocks are currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3, which offers an earnings yield of around 11% and is significantly lower than the US markets, suggesting that Chinese stocks may be undervalued.

  • What does the data suggest about the potential for future returns in the stock market given current valuations?

    -The data suggests that investors should lower their expectations for future returns due to the current high valuations in the stock market, with the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio historically correlating with lower annual returns as it increases.

Outlines

00:00

πŸ“ˆ Stock Market Optimism and JP Morgan's Market Update

The video discusses the current optimism in the stock market, particularly around the S&P 500, which is near its all-time highs. It highlights the importance of JP Morgan's market reports for understanding market fundamentals and pricing. The speaker intends to share key insights from the latest report and their implications for investors. The video is sponsored by Wiky Stock, a platform offering comprehensive information on brokerage firms, including a unique scoring system and details on licenses, features, and potential risks. Wiky Stock aims to help investors make informed decisions and avoid risks, with a mention of an upcoming event in Bangkok.

05:01

πŸ’Ή S&P 500 Valuation and Historical Comparisons

This section delves into the valuation of the S&P 500, comparing current forward price-to-earnings ratios with historical data. As of July 31st, the ratio stands at 20.7, slightly lower than its peak in early 2022 but higher considering the current interest rates. The presenter argues that despite the S&P 500 not being at tech bubble levels, it appears expensive today. The 30-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio is also discussed, showing that the current market is trading at a premium. Forward earnings per share estimates for 2024 to 2026 are presented, indicating expected growth and questioning if such market growth is realistic.

10:02

πŸ† Dominance of Top Stocks and Market Concentration

The video script examines the influence of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500, which are trading at a significant premium compared to their historical averages. It points out that these stocks contribute to a large portion of the index's total returns, with the 'Magnificent 7' alone accounting for over half of the S&P 500's gains year-to-date. The concentration of the S&P 500 in these top stocks is at a record high, suggesting reduced diversification. The presenter also discusses the potential implications of this concentration for investors and the market.

15:03

πŸ’³ Consumer Health and Inflation Trends

This part of the script addresses consumer health indicators such as the household Debt Service ratio, which remains below historical averages despite early delinquencies on auto and credit card loans showing an upward trend. The personal savings rate is also discussed, noting a significant decrease from historical norms, attributed to inflationary pressures. The script further explores the impact of diminishing excess savings on future consumer spending and economic implications. Inflation contributors are analyzed, with shelter inflation identified as the primary driver, although it has been on a downward trend since early 2023.

🌐 Global Market Valuations and Investment Opportunities

The final paragraph explores global market valuations, highlighting the potential for value investment in international markets relative to the US. It discusses the significant discounts in international price-to-earnings ratios and higher dividend yields compared to the US. The presenter notes the undervaluation of Chinese stocks, despite concerns in some investor circles, and the interest of prominent investors in the Chinese market. The script also touches on the projected growth in semiconductor production and its potential impact on industry margins, as well as the opportunities in small and mid-cap stocks which appear to be trading below their long-term averages.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘S&P 500

The S&P 500, or Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is often used as a benchmark to gauge the overall performance of the U.S. stock market. In the video, the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is discussed to analyze its current valuation and historical performance, indicating its importance in the theme of market analysis.

πŸ’‘Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio)

The price-to-earnings ratio is a valuation ratio calculated by dividing the market value per share of a stock by its earnings per share. It is used to determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. The video script discusses the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500, comparing it to historical data to assess the current market valuation and potential for investment.

πŸ’‘Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are set by central banks. They have a significant impact on the economy and financial markets, affecting everything from mortgage rates to the valuation of stocks. The script mentions the current interest rates being higher than during the peak in 2022, suggesting that the cost of borrowing is a factor in the current stock market valuation.

πŸ’‘Tech Bubble

The tech bubble refers to a period in the late 1990s and early 2000s when the stock prices of many technology companies rose to unsustainable levels, followed by a sharp decline. The video script uses the tech bubble as a historical reference point to compare the current market conditions and valuations, indicating the potential risks of an overheated market.

πŸ’‘Value Stocks

Value stocks are stocks that are considered undervalued by the market, trading for less than their intrinsic value. The script discusses the relative valuation of value stocks compared to growth stocks, indicating that even though value stocks may appear cheaper, they are still trading above their historical averages, which is relevant to investors looking for undervalued opportunities.

πŸ’‘Growth Stocks

Growth stocks are stocks of companies that are expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to the market. The video script contrasts growth stocks with value stocks, noting that while value stocks may be cheaper, growth stocks are trading at a higher P/E ratio, reflecting market expectations of their future earnings potential.

πŸ’‘Wiky Stock

Wiky Stock is mentioned in the script as a sponsor of the video. It is described as a platform that provides investors with information to assess the reliability of brokerage firms, reduce decision-making costs, and avoid risks. The mention of Wiky Stock in the context of the video serves to highlight the importance of due diligence in choosing brokerage services for investing.

πŸ’‘Dividend Yield

Dividend yield is the ratio of the annual dividend payment to the market value of the stock. It is used by investors to measure the return on investment from dividends. The script compares dividend yields between international and U.S. markets, suggesting that international markets may offer higher yields and potentially greater value.

πŸ’‘Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script discusses the components of headline CPI inflation, with shelter inflation being a significant contributor. It also notes the trend of inflation coming down, which is relevant to the overall economic context affecting the stock market.

πŸ’‘Capital Expenditures

Capital expenditures refer to the funds a company spends to acquire, maintain, or improve its assets. The script highlights the increasing capital expenditures of major AI hyperscalers, indicating significant investment in infrastructure, which could have implications for the growth and valuation of these companies.

πŸ’‘International Markets

International markets refer to the stock exchanges and financial markets outside of the United States. The script suggests that international markets may be undervalued compared to the U.S. markets, based on P/E ratio comparisons and dividend yields, which could indicate potential investment opportunities for investors looking beyond domestic markets.

Highlights

S&P 500 is near all-time highs with investors showing increased optimism.

JP Morgan's report provides key fundamental market data and insights.

Wiky Stock's multi-dimensional scoring system for brokerages helps investors reduce decision-making costs.

The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is at 20.7, indicating a potentially expensive market.

High interest rates make the current market more expensive compared to the peak in 2022.

Analysts expect significant EPS growth for the S&P 500 over the next three years.

Value stocks are cheaper than growth stocks but still above their historical average price-to-earnings ratios.

Top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are trading significantly above their historical average price ratios.

Concentration of the S&P 500 in top 10 stocks is at a record high, reducing diversification.

The 'Magnificent 7' stocks have contributed to over half of the S&P 500's total returns this year.

Household Debt Service ratio is below the long-term average, but early delinquencies are trending up.

US personal savings rate is significantly lower than the long-term average due to inflation.

Inflation contributors show shelter inflation as the primary source, but it's trending down.

Capital expenditures by major AI hyperscalers are projected to increase significantly.

International markets appear cheaper than the US market, offering potential value.

Chinese stocks are extremely undervalued, contrary to common investor perceptions.

China is projected to lead in semiconductor production by 2030, impacting industry margins.

Small and mid-cap stocks may offer value as they trade below their historical averages.

Higher market valuations historically correlate with lower future returns.

Transcripts

play00:00

the S&P 500 is selling right near

play00:02

all-time highs and it seems like

play00:03

investors are becoming more optimistic

play00:05

about the stock market in general every

play00:07

few months JP Morgan puts out a great

play00:10

report that covers the key fundamental

play00:11

data of the market and how things are

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looking and I love to dive into this

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data and share it here on my channel it

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gives us a good overview of the market

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and how things are currently being

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priced which helps us properly set our

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expectations and find potential areas of

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value so in today's video I want to

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share the key highlights from JP

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Morgan's most recent market update and

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what my takeaways for investors are

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however before we get into the video I

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want to let you all know that this video

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is sponsored by wik stock wiky stock

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provides investors with accurate

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comprehensive and diversified

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information to help them identify the

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reliability of brokerage firms reduce

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decision-making costs and effectively

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avoid risks one of wiky Stock's core

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functions and value ads is that they

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have a weaky score system which is a

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multi-dimensional scoring system for

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each brokerage this score Focus focuses

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on the regulatory aspects business

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licenses features and risks of over

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11,000 brokerages around the world they

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also show you all of the different

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Securities licenses each brokerage has

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for example we can see that interactive

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brokers has seven licenses in the US

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Australia the UK Japan China Singapore

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and Canada you can also view the pros

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and cons of every brokerage to see what

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their strengths and weaknesses are for

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example we can see that interactive

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brokers has low trading fees a high

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interest rate on cash a wide range of

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products and many great research tools

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however it also has a complicated

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account opening process a complex

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desktop platform and understaffed

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customer service so interactive brokers

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sounds like a great brokerage for people

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who can leverage analytical tools but it

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also is challenging to set up so if

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you're interested in checking out Wiki

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stock and finding the best and most

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trustworthy brokerages then make sure to

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download their free app via the link in

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my descript description wiy stock also

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has an expo going on in Thailand that

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will take place in Bangkok on September

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7th the details of that event are also

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in my description and with that being

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said let's now hop into the video all

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right so this first chart that we are

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taking a look at shows us the forward

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price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500

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today and historically so as of July

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31st we can see that the forward price

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earnings ratio was sitting at 20.7 and

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the previous top was on January 3rd of

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2022 when the priced earnings ratio got

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to 21.4

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however at that time interest rates were

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only sitting at 1.6% versus 4.1% today

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so basically today the market is selling

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for a slightly lower price to earnings

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ratio but the interest rate on bonds is

play02:42

significantly higher and therefore you

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could make the argument that the stock

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market is actually more expensive today

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versus the peak in 2022 now we can also

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see that the forward priced earnings

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ratio of the S&P 500 during the tech

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bubble was 25.2 and at this time the

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10-year bond yield was 6.2% so this

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combination of a very high price

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earnings ratio and a high yield on bonds

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does show us that the stock market was

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incredibly expensive during the tech

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bubble and I personally do not think

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that the market is near Tech bubble

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levels quite yet and really not even

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close but in general I do think that the

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S&P 500 is looking expensive today now

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moving on to the next screenshot this

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one shows us the 30-year average forward

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pric earnings ratio of the S&P 500 which

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is

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16.73% standard deviation and minus one

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standard deviation and a plus one

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standard deviation is a forward priced

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earnings ratio of 20 and once again we

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can set the market is trading for 20.7

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today which is actually quite expensive

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we can also see that there was only two

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times in the past 30 years where the

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market was trading for this high of a

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price the previous time was in the 2020

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2021 era and also during the tech bubble

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of 2000 and to me this does suggest that

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the S&P 500 is looking expensive to

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today all right now this next screenshot

play04:01

shows us the forward earnings per share

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estimates for the S&P 500 and for 2024

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analysts are expecting earnings per

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share across the S&P to grow by about

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11% now in 2025 and in 2026 analysts are

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expecting the EPS of the S&P to grow by

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15% so this is what the market I think

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is currently pricing in is quite a bit

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of growth over the next 3 years and this

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is what analysts are expecting and as I

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just said I personally think that this

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is a lot of growth that the market

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Market is pricing in and you can ask

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yourself if you think that the market is

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actually going to see 15% annual growth

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over the next 3 years or not this next

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chart shows us the value versus growth

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relative valuations and we can see that

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right now value stocks are looking

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cheaper than growth stocks however if we

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take a look at this bottom table right

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here we can see that the current forward

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priced earnings ratio of value stocks is

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sitting at 16.2 and their long-term

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average is 14.1 so even though value

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stocks are looking quite a bit cheaper

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than growth stocks it is worth pointing

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out that value stocks are still selling

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about 10% above their historical average

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priced earnings ratios and therefore

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even value stocks could be argued to be

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looking expensive today this next chart

play05:11

is an interesting one because it shows

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us the price to earnings ratio of the

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top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 the

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remaining stocks and the total priced

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earnings ratio of the S&P 500 on a

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forward basis so the top 10 stocks are

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currently trading for a forward priced

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earnings ratio of 31.3 and their

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long-term average is 20.5 which means

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that the top 10 stocks are trading about

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53% above their historical average price

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ratios and again are looking quite

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expensive the remaining stocks in the

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S&P 500 are trading about 11% above

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their historical average price ratios

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and in general the entire S&P 500 is

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trading about 25% above its long-term

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historical averages so in general it

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looks like stocks in the S&P are quite

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expensive today the weight of the top 10

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stocks in the S&P 500 is also sitting at

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35.7% now or basically 36% and really

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since about 2016 the S&P 500 has

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becoming more and more concentrated in

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these top 10 stocks and this

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concentration is sitting at a record

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high over the past 30 years with the

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previous High being during the tech

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bubble where the top 10 stocks made up

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about 27% of the S&P 500 so basically

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the S&P is becoming more concentrated in

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a handful of stocks and the

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diversification in the S&P is becoming

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less and less all right this next table

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right here shows us where the returns of

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the S&P 500 have been coming from so the

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Magnificent 7 so far year to date are up

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29% and they have produced 51% of the

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snp's total returns so the majority of

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the snp's returns so far this year have

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come from just seven stocks okay now the

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remaining stocks within the S&P have

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generated returns of about 7% and in

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general have contributed about 49% of

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the index's total returns so if you are

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a stock picker and you did not own the

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Magnificent 7 then it has been extremely

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challenging to outperform the S&P so far

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this year now it's also worth noting

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that the Magnificent 7 have been seeing

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significantly more earnings per share

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growth than the remainder of the S&P and

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they are projected to see more earnings

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growth over the next two quarters so

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these seven businesses are growing

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significantly faster than the remaining

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493 stocks in the S&P which does kind of

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make sense as to why their stocks are

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performing better as well because stocks

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do follow the underlying businesses all

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right moving on now this next chart gets

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us into the consumer health and this is

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the household Debt Service ratio which

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are the debt payments as a percentage of

play07:40

people's disposable personal income and

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we can see that the household Debt

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Service ratio is currently sitting at

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10% which is actually still below the

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long-term average over the past about 45

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years now the highest it got was in the

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fourth quarter of 2007 at 13.3% and we

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aren't quite back to those levels right

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now and we are actually a pretty far

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ways away from those levels still and

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again we are actually below the

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long-term historical average household

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Debt Service ratio however if we take a

play08:10

look at flows into early delinquencies

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we can see that auto loans and credit

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card loans are ticking up quite a bit

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and they are actually continuing to go

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up it also looks like the early

play08:21

delinquencies of these loans are

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actually getting above their historical

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averages however we can see that back

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here in the Great Recession these

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numbers got up to roughly 14% so they do

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still have quite a long ways to go but

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it is worth noting that the early

play08:34

delinquencies in these loans are

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trending up in a pretty big way this

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next chart shows us the personal savings

play08:40

rate of people in the United States and

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we can see that so far year-to date in

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2024 it's only

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3.6% which is well below the long-term

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average of

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8.5% so people are not really saving

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that much money right now and this is

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probably due to all of the inflation

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that we have seen over the past four

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years now we can also see the household

play09:00

excess Savings in terms of trillions of

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US dollar and we can see that it peaked

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here at 2.3 trillion during covid in

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2021 and in 2022 when there was a lot of

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stimulus going on within the economy

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since then people have been spending

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their excess savings and now excess

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savings is sitting at $500 billion which

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means that it is down about 1.8 trillion

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from the peak only 2 years ago and it is

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going to be interesting to see what

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happens when people's excess savings do

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run out because this trend is clearly

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going down so when it hits zero are

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people going to be spending less money

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or what is going to happen to the

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economy that is something that I am

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interested to see and something that I

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am kind of anticipating will happen

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sometime soon this next chart shows us

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the contributors to headline CPI

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inflation and we can actually see that

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shelter inflation is still the number

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one source of inflation however it has

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been trending down since about February

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of 2023 so over the past 18 months

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shelter inflation has been trending down

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and it's still is today overall headline

play10:01

inflation is also sitting at 3% which is

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the lowest it has been since June of

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2023 and overall the trend of inflation

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is coming down and a lot of people are

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speculating that this means that the FED

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will lower interest rates sometime quite

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soon in fact by the end of the year the

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fomc is estimating that interest rates

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will drop to 5.1% versus the 5.38% that

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they are currently at today the FED is

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then expecting interest rates to drop to

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4.1% by the end of 2025 and then at 3.1%

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by the end of 2026 so basically interest

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rates are projected to drop by roughly

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2% over the next 2 years and I do think

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that the market is currently pricing

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this in all right now this next slide

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shows us the capital expenditures from

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the major Ai hyperscalers and we can see

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that these companies have continued to

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spend more and more money on Capital

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expenditures and in the year of 2024

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they are now projected to spend

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88 billion which is roughly 50% more

play10:58

than they spent in 20 23 so the capital

play11:00

expenditures of these businesses are

play11:02

continuing to explode and Skyrocket now

play11:05

what's also interesting is the global

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electricity demand from data centers and

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crypto is projected to grow by 80% from

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2022 to 2026 this means that the world

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is projected to continue consuming a lot

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more electricity and we are going to

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need a lot more electricity Supply to

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actually power and meet the demand of

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all of these data centers that are being

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built around the world and these data

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centers that are actually powering the

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AI Revolution this is something that

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Bruce Flatt and Mark Zuckerberg have

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both talked about as well and this is

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something that I have covered on my

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channel before and it is interesting for

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me to see that there is so much

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projected electricity demand because

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it's not really something that is talked

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about in the stock market a lot today is

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how these electricity providers could

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see massive Tailwinds over the coming

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decades and this is one of the reasons

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why Brookfield is the largest position

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in my portfolio all right moving on to

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the international charts now here we can

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see the inter International price to

play12:00

earnings ratio discount versus the US

play12:02

price to earnings ratio and we can see

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that relative to the US markets the

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international markets are actually

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looking quite cheap with our largest

play12:09

discount in 20 years now by far so it

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does look like there could be value

play12:14

found in the international markets

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versus the US markets right now we can

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also see the difference in dividend

play12:20

yields versus the international markets

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and the US markets and right now the

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international markets are offering a

play12:25

pretty high dividend yield versus the US

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markets which could also suggest once

play12:30

again that the international markets are

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looking cheap relative to US stocks

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today moving on this next chart shows us

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the global valuations of different

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markets and here we can see that the US

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is trading for that 20.7 forward priced

play12:41

earnings ratio and its 25-year average

play12:44

was that 16.7 so the US markets are

play12:46

selling well above their long-term

play12:48

historical average pric earnings ratios

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Japan is currently selling below its

play12:52

long-term average priced earnings ratios

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so is Europe and so is China the

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Emerging Markets are trading slightly

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above their price to earnings ratios and

play13:00

overall it does look like China is

play13:02

offering the largest discount right now

play13:04

by far the Chinese markets are trading

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for a price to earnings ratio of only

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9.3 which is an earnings yield of around

play13:11

11% and overall it does look like

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Chinese stocks are extremely undervalued

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right now assuming that nothing major

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happens to the Chinese economy going

play13:20

forward this is also interesting because

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a lot of super investors have been

play13:24

buying Chinese stocks and even Howard

play13:27

Marx has said he is happy invested in

play13:29

China right now so while a lot of

play13:31

investors are scared of the Chinese

play13:33

markets or saying that the Chinese

play13:35

markets are uninvestable a lot of super

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investors have actually been putting

play13:38

more money and allocating more of their

play13:40

portfolios into Chinese stocks so we're

play13:42

going to have to see how this plays out

play13:44

over the long term this next chart also

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shows us that China is projected to

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become the leader in semiconductor

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production by 2030 it also seems like

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countries are racing to produce more

play13:54

semiconductors on their own and you have

play13:56

to wonder what this increase in Supply

play13:59

semiconductors will due to the margins

play14:01

within this industry over the coming

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years this next screenshot comes from

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yini research so we're actually moving

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away from the JP Morgan Guide to the

play14:09

markets now but I do think that this

play14:11

chart and the following information is

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very useful for investors to know so

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this chart shows us the S&P 500 large

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cap forward priced earnings ratio versus

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the S&P 400 midcap index and the S&P 600

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small cap index and right here we can

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see that the mid and small cap indexes

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are trading for forward priced earnings

play14:28

ratio

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well below the S&P 500 overall if we

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also take a look at these two indexes

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versus their long-term historical

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averages we can see that they're

play14:38

actually selling around their long-term

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historical averages if not below their

play14:42

historical averages therefore in my

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opinion this data does suggest that

play14:46

there could be value found in small and

play14:48

midcap stocks in the market right now

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this screenshot was also shared in my

play14:52

patreon community which shows the

play14:53

valuations of small cap stocks versus

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large cap stocks and we can see that the

play14:58

relative valuation between the S&P 600

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small cap index versus the S&P 100 large

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cap index is at about a 60e low right

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now and the last time that small cap

play15:08

stocks were looking this cheap was

play15:10

during the tech bubble so all of this

play15:11

data is suggesting that small cap stocks

play15:14

are actually looking quite undervalued

play15:16

right now and this could be an area of

play15:18

value for investors to seek out now the

play15:20

last chart that I want to show you all

play15:21

was also shared in my patreon community

play15:24

and this chart right here shows us that

play15:25

higher valuations equal lower returns

play15:28

and what this chart is specifically

play15:29

showing us is the S&P 500 forward price

play15:32

to earnings ratio versus its annualized

play15:35

total return over the following 10 years

play15:37

and you can clearly see that

play15:39

historically the annual returns lower as

play15:42

the price to earnings ratio of the S&P

play15:44

500 increases we can also see that

play15:46

around a 23 forward priced earnings

play15:48

ratio the 10-year future returns go

play15:51

negative and as we saw we are currently

play15:53

at a 21 forward priced earnings ratio in

play15:56

the S&P 500 and historically when the P

play15:59

has traded for this price the 10-year

play16:01

returns have been around 3% this

play16:04

suggests that investors should lower

play16:06

their expectations for future returns

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due to the market currently being quite

play16:10

expensive before he died Charlie Monker

play16:13

was also saying that there could be a

play16:15

lost decade which is where the index

play16:17

doesn't produce returns for a decade due

play16:19

to the high prices in the stock market

play16:21

today it's also worth noting that there

play16:23

has been many times throughout history

play16:25

where the S&P has not produced returns

play16:27

for a decade if if not longer and I do

play16:30

believe that this could happen again so

play16:32

what my main takeaways from all of these

play16:34

charts are is that index investors do

play16:36

need to lower their expectations for

play16:38

future returns there also is a lot of

play16:41

value outside of the US markets and in

play16:43

small and midcap stocks so these could

play16:45

be areas where investors could find

play16:47

undervalued stocks I also personally

play16:49

think that we are in a stock Pickers

play16:51

Market because personally I do not think

play16:53

that the S&P 500 and the indexes are

play16:56

going to produce strong returns over the

play16:58

next 5 to 10 10 years and I do think

play17:00

that the large returns will come to

play17:01

stock Pickers who can find individual

play17:04

stocks that are currently undervalued

play17:06

and offering significant future growth

play17:08

but with all that being said that is

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going to wrap up the video for today

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everyone and if you did enjoy this video

play17:12

then please remember to leave a like on

play17:14

it and if you want to stick around and

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see more stock market related content

play17:17

like this then please consider

play17:19

subscribing to my channel as well as I

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said I like to go through all of these

play17:22

charts on a quarterly basis whenever JP

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Morgan updates their Guide to the

play17:26

markets but that is going to be all for

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me today every one and thank you all so

play17:30

much for tuning in as always I truly do

play17:32

appreciate it and I really hope to see

play17:33

you all again in my next video

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