Fruit & Veg prices in South Africa

Summary

This week's market overview by AMT and John Deere highlights fruit industry trends, predicting price increases for avocados, apples, and pears towards year-end. It also notes a slight drop in potato prices and discusses economic factors affecting currency and oil prices. The report covers vegetable market dynamics, with tomatoes seeing a price surge and onions continuing to decline. Fruit prices are analyzed, with bananas, apples, and pears expected to fluctuate, and avocado prices are projected to rise in the coming months. FieldNET Pivot Watch is promoted for its farm monitoring capabilities.

Takeaways

• 🍏 The focus of the market overview is on the fruit industry, particularly the potential increase in Avo, Apple, and Pear prices towards the year's end.
• 📉 Potato prices have decreased slightly, with an average national price drop of 3% to R77.92 per 10kg, and volumes were 12% lower week on week.
• 🍅 Tomato prices increased by 16% to R9.37 per kilogram, with volumes decreasing by 34%, indicating a supply-demand imbalance.
• 🥕 Carrot prices are on the rise, with the average price at R4.25 per kilogram, and volumes are expected to increase in the coming months, potentially affecting prices.
• 🧅 Onion prices continue to decrease, with the average price at R60.75 per 10kg, and a prediction of further decrease towards the end of the year.
• 🌶 Pepper prices show variability, with green and yellow peppers decreasing while red peppers increase, suggesting market-specific dynamics.
• 💰 The South African Rand has strengthened against the US dollar, currently at R18.20, influenced by global economic concerns and geopolitical tensions.
• 📈 Brent crude oil prices have risen to $80.30 per barrel due to concerns over Middle East supply stability and anticipated US interest rate changes.
• 📊 Market volumes traded decreased last week, but this was attributed to a shorter week and not indicative of actual demand and supply conditions.
• 🍌 Banana prices have decreased, and despite higher volumes in June and July, they are not expected to reach the lows of September 2022.
• 🍏 Apple prices are stable, trading at R9.86, with a potential increase to R13 in November if following last year's trend.
• 🍐 Pear prices are higher than the previous four years, with expectations of a significant increase from October to December due to lower volumes.

Q & A

What is the focus of the AMT / John Deere Fresh Produce Market overview for this week?

The focus of the market overview is on the fruit industry, specifically discussing the potential increase in Avocado, Apple, and Pear prices as the year ends.

How has the South African Rand performed recently against the US dollar?

The Rand has strengthened to R18.20 per US dollar due to investor concerns over potential recessions in China and the US, as well as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

What is the current expectation regarding the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut?

International investors have abandoned the idea of an emergency rate cut in the US but remain optimistic about a 50 basis point reduction in September.

What is the expected action by South African economists regarding interest rates in the coming months?

South African economists expect a 25 basis point cut in September and another 25 basis points in November, influenced by positive economic outlooks, political stability, and the absence of load shedding.

Why has the Brent crude oil price increased to $80.30 per barrel?

The increase is due to concerns about the stability of supply from the Middle East because of escalating conflict, and higher demand is anticipated when the US lowers interest rates.

How did the average national potato price and volume change last week?

The average national potato price decreased by 3% to R77.92 per 10kg, with volumes 12% lower week on week.

What is the current expectation for potato prices in the coming weeks?

Expectations are for potato prices to remain mostly sideways this week due to lower middle month demand, with a potential drop in volumes expected at the end of August or the start of September.

How did tomato prices and volumes perform in the past week?

Tomato prices increased by 16% to R9.37 per kilogram, while volumes decreased by 34%.

What is the outlook for carrot prices for the remainder of this month?

Carrot prices are expected to be higher for the remainder of the month, likely moving closer to R5, with volumes expected to pick up in September and October.

What trend is observed in onion prices, and what is the expected future movement?

Onion prices are in a downward trend, decreasing by 3% to R60.75 per 10kg. It is expected that prices will move below the R50 mark next month and remain at a lower level until December.

How did pepper prices change, and what is the expected market pressure in the next two weeks?

The average pepper price decreased slightly to R21.45 per kilogram. With lower middle month demand and higher volumes, the market is expected to face pressure, potentially leading to a decrease in prices over the next two weeks.

What is the current situation with banana prices and expected changes for September and October?

Banana prices decreased to R7.26 per kilogram, with volumes decreasing by 16% week on week. Prices are expected to remain close to current levels for September but may jump to around R10 in October due to lower expected volumes.

What are the latest apple and pear prices, and what trends are expected for the coming months?

The latest apple price is R9.86, and the pear price is R10.68. Apple prices are expected to possibly move closer to R13 in November, while pear prices are likely to remain sideways in September before increasing significantly from October to December due to lower volumes.

How did avocado prices and volumes change last week, and what is the expected trend for the next few months?

Avocado prices increased to R15.10 per kilogram, with volumes 23% lower week on week. Prices are expected to start increasing from September onwards, likely moving closer to R25 in November.