Bitcoin Holders...Prepare for This

Summary

In this Sunday walk video, the host anticipates market volatility due to the upcoming Jackson Hole event, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech could influence the market direction. Despite a strong recovery in tech stocks and Bitcoin's slow rise, the speaker questions why crypto hasn't followed suit. They speculate on potential political influences and the US government's recent Bitcoin sales, suggesting a possible recovery if no further sales occur. The host also discusses the accumulation of Bitcoin by large entities and banks, hinting at a bullish outlook and the potential for an altcoin season towards the year's end.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker anticipates volatility in the market this week, hopefully in a positive direction.
• 🗓 The upcoming Jackson Hole event, where the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak, is expected to influence market sentiment.
• 🤔 There is speculation about whether the Fed will make a rate cut in September, with expectations varying after Powell's previous statements.
• 📉 The broader market had a strong recovery last week, but Bitcoin and crypto did not follow suit, raising questions about the reasons behind this divergence.
• 🏦 Wall Street's actions and potential selling by the US government are considered possible factors affecting Bitcoin's price.
• 📈 Despite some uncertainty, the speaker believes that Bitcoin and the broader market could have a recovery week, especially if there's no additional selling pressure from the US government.
• 💼 Large financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock are accumulating Bitcoin, which is seen as a bullish signal for the market.
• 🌐 International developments, such as China becoming more crypto-friendly and Russia legalizing mining, are positive for the crypto space.
• 🚫 The fear of large entities dumping Bitcoin is diminishing as more entities are seen accumulating rather than selling.
• 📊 The speaker predicts a potential 'altcoin season' towards the end of the year and a more significant one in the next year's Q3 or Q4 when the market may be topping out.
• 🛑 The speaker advises against holding short positions in Bitcoin, warning of the risk of being liquidated as the market may rise.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is the anticipation of market volatility and the impact of the upcoming Jackson Hole event on the broader market and cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.

What is the significance of the Jackson Hole event in the context of the video?

The Jackson Hole event is significant because it is where the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is expected to make a speech that could influence market expectations regarding monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts.

Why did the speaker mention the broader market's performance last week?

The speaker mentioned the broader market's performance last week to highlight the recovery of the tech sector and to contrast it with the lack of recovery in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, despite similar market conditions.

What is the speaker's view on the potential actions of the US government regarding Bitcoin?

The speaker speculates that the US government's recent sale of 10,000 Bitcoins might have been politically driven and expresses hope that there won't be further sales that could disrupt the Bitcoin market.

What is the connection between the Mount Gox distribution and the Bitcoin market?

The Mount Gox distribution refers to the process of distributing the remaining Bitcoin assets from the hacked exchange. The speaker notes that this distribution has not significantly disrupted Bitcoin's price, unlike the impact of the US government's sales.

What does the speaker suggest about the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?

The speaker suggests that despite current volatility, the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies looks positive, as large entities and even central banks are accumulating Bitcoin, which could lead to a bullish market.

What is the speaker's opinion on the current state of the economy?

The speaker believes that the economy is slowing down, citing examples such as car dealerships selling below MSRP, and anticipates that Jerome Powell might acknowledge this in his speech, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.

What is the '4E cycle' mentioned by the speaker?

The '4E cycle' is not explicitly defined in the script, but it seems to refer to a pattern or cycle in the cryptocurrency market that the speaker believes is currently underway, with a parabolic phase expected to come.

What does the speaker predict for the end of the year in terms of the altcoin market?

The speaker predicts that there will be another 'mini allcoin season' at the end of the year, with a true 'allcoin season' expected in the next year, particularly in Q3 or Q4, when the market starts topping out.

How does the speaker view the role of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market?

The speaker views institutional investors as significant players in the cryptocurrency market, noting that their accumulation of Bitcoin could eventually lead to a scenario where they hold a large portion of the supply, which could have implications for the market dynamics.

What advice does the speaker give to those who might be holding a short position in Bitcoin?

The speaker advises against holding a short position in Bitcoin, warning that a significant price increase could lead to liquidation of shorts, and encourages viewers not to be among those who suffer such losses.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Anticipating Market Volatility and Jackson Hole Event

The speaker begins by greeting viewers and referencing a previous video about a crypto cruise. They predict market volatility for the week, possibly positive, but also foresee a weaker broader market due to an upcoming event in the US. The focus is on the Federal Reserve Chair's speech at Jackson Hole, which is anticipated to provide insights into the economy's health and potential interest rate cuts. The speaker reflects on the previous week's market recovery, particularly in the tech sector, but notes the surprising lack of recovery in Bitcoin and crypto, suggesting that Wall Street is not selling off Bitcoin.

05:00

🏦 Impact of Government Bitcoin Transactions on the Market

This paragraph delves into the US government's recent transfer of 10,000 Bitcoins to Coinbase, which the speaker suspects may have negatively impacted Bitcoin's price. They speculate that this could be politically driven and express confusion over the government's decision to sell such a large amount of Bitcoin, given its insignificance relative to the national debt. The speaker also mentions the Mount Gox distribution and its minimal impact on Bitcoin's price, suggesting that the fear of large-scale Bitcoin dumping by entities like the Department of Justice and Mount Gox is nearing an end.

10:03

🌐 Global Institutional Interest in Bitcoin

The speaker discusses the growing interest of global institutions in Bitcoin, highlighting Goldman Sachs' undisclosed $400 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs and similar moves by other major banks. They also mention the significant holdings of Bitcoin by BlackRock and the endorsement of MicroStrategy by central banks, indicating a trend of accumulation rather than selling. The speaker argues against the notion of constant Bitcoin dumping by large entities and suggests that the market is moving towards a scenario where large corporations and institutions hold most of the Bitcoin supply.

15:05

🚀 Preparing for a Bullish Week and the Possibility of an Altcoin Season

In the final paragraph, the speaker expresses optimism for a bullish week, anticipating potential positive news from the Federal Reserve Chair's speech at Jackson Hole. They predict that if there is no selling pressure from the government, Bitcoin could experience a significant rise. The speaker also touches on the possibility of another 'altcoin season' towards the end of the year and into the next, based on historical market cycles, and advises against holding short positions in Bitcoin due to the large amount of shorts waiting to be liquidated.

Keywords

💡Volatility

Volatility refers to the degree of variation of a trading price series over time. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the expected fluctuations in the market, particularly in relation to the broader market's performance and the upcoming event at Jackson Hole. The speaker anticipates that the market will be more volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and potential policy changes.

💡Jackson Hole

Jackson Hole is an annual economic policy symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The term is used in the script to highlight an important event where central bankers and economists discuss monetary policy strategies. The speaker mentions it as a significant influence on market expectations and potential volatility due to the anticipation of policy announcements.

💡FOMC Meeting

FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, which is responsible for making key decisions about interest rates and the direction of monetary policy in the United States. The script mentions the absence of an FOMC meeting in the current month, which adds to the significance of the Jackson Hole event as a source of policy signals.

💡Rate Cut

A rate cut refers to a reduction in interest rates by a central bank, typically aimed at stimulating economic activity. In the video, the term is used to discuss potential actions by the Federal Reserve, with the speaker speculating on whether a rate cut will be announced and its impact on the market.

💡Tech Sell-Off

Tech sell-off refers to the act of selling off technology stocks, often due to market downturns or sector-specific concerns. The script mentions a recovery in the tech sector, with companies like Nvidia and Tesla experiencing an uptick in their stock prices, indicating a rebound from a previous sell-off.

💡MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy is a company known for its business intelligence software, but it has also become notable for its significant investments in Bitcoin. The script discusses MicroStrategy's stock performance and its connection to the broader market and Bitcoin's price movements.

💡Coinbase

Coinbase is a major cryptocurrency exchange platform. The script mentions Coinbase's recovery, suggesting a rebound in its stock price or market performance, which is contrasted with the lack of recovery in Bitcoin's price.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, the first and most well-known of its kind. The script frequently references Bitcoin's price movements, market performance, and its relationship with other market factors, such as institutional investments and government actions.

💡ETFs

ETF stands for Exchange-Traded Fund, which is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product. In the script, the speaker discusses the role of Bitcoin ETFs in institutional investment and their impact on the demand for Bitcoin.

💡Mount Gox

Mount Gox was a Bitcoin exchange that went bankrupt after a major hack in 2014. The script mentions the distribution of Bitcoin from the Mount Gox bankruptcy trustee and its potential impact on the market, contrasting it with other large entities that are accumulating Bitcoin.

💡Accumulation

Accumulation in the context of the script refers to the process of acquiring and holding onto assets, specifically Bitcoin, by large institutions and corporations. The speaker suggests that while some entities may be selling off Bitcoin, others are actively accumulating it, which could influence the market's future direction.

💡Altcoin Season

Altcoin Season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) experience significant gains in value, often outperforming Bitcoin. The script predicts a potential altcoin season towards the end of the year and a larger one in the next year's Q3 or Q4, indicating a belief in the cyclical nature of altcoin performance.

Highlights

Expectation of market volatility this week, potentially positive due to an upcoming event in the US.

The broader market is anticipated to be weaker due to an event in Jackson Hole.

Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is expected to make a significant speech at Jackson Hole.

Speculation on whether the Fed will cut rates by 2 or 50 basis points in September.

Last week's market recovery, especially in the tech sector, with companies like Nvidia and Tesla showing significant gains.

MicroStrategy and Coinbase had a good week, but Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies did not follow suit.

Discussion on Wall Street not being the main seller of Bitcoin currently.

The US government's potential influence on Bitcoin's price through the sale of 10,000 Bitcoins.

Bitcoin's slow recovery over the weekend, with a cautious note on potential dips.

The distribution of Bitcoin from the Mt. Gox hack and its minimal impact on the market.

China and Russia becoming more crypto-friendly, with increased mining activities and legalization of mining.

Large financial institutions like Goldman Sachs investing in Bitcoin ETFs.

Central banks disclosing holdings in MicroStrategy, seen as a significant endorsement for Bitcoin.

The potential accumulation of Bitcoin by large corporations and institutions, leaving less supply for retail investors.

Prediction of a bullish parabolic phase for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

The possibility of a 'mini altcoin season' towards the end of the year, with a full altcoin season expected in 2023.

Advice against holding short positions in Bitcoin, warning of potential liquidation.

Transcripts

welcome back to another Sunday walk

video hopefully you guys enjoyed my

crypto Cruise

yesterday I had fun recording it

hopefully you guys enjoyed it so I will

continue to do

so uh but

today Sunday walk what do I have to talk

about mostly what to expect this week I

think we will see some volatility this

week hopefully in a good way but I do

think the market overall broader Market

this week

will be weaker because of this one event

that's coming up in the

US

and let's talk about it um so what is

this event well that chair pile is going

to Jackson

hle and

normally you know it's it's a place of

relaxation right but uh but you know

Paul has been making speeches from

jackon Jackson Hole and a lot of eyes

are on him this time around

because obviously we don't have a fomc

meeting this month so this is the first

time

people I guess the first time he's

speaking and people want to know like

hey what are you thinking right is the

economy doing well is it not doing well

this Ray cut that's coming in September

are you going to do 2 basis points are

50 um so everyone wants to know what

he's thinking right because

obviously in

July he said no we need to wait a little

bit more no Ray cut in July and a lot of

people disagree with that a lot of

people thought that he should have done

one

already um and shortly after that Japan

happened you know um and markets crashed

we had a horrible horrible crash for a

couple weeks last week however we

actually came back up so last week

actually for the broader Market was

pretty fantastic a lot of the tech

sell-offs like kind of recover the tech

sector came up in a big way I know

Nvidia Tesla and others they came up in

a big way not back to their previous

high but getting up there and even

here's the thing even mic strategy and

coinbase they had a pretty good week we

saw them recover up too but the thing is

how come they

recovered

but

um how come they recovered but Bitcoin

and crypto did not right so that's the

question question mark so that was

surprising and I mentioned it in my

streams last week

I'm like if you pay attention micro

strategy in Co is going up but Bitcoin

is not so obviously Wall Street is not

the culprit they're not the ones selling

off Bitcoin right now and there's so

much proof of

that

so I guess bottom line is this week I

think just like all other weeks when we

had like a big fomc meeting coming up we

had volatility

right because Wall Street is kind of

like you know trying to predict what may

what may uh you know what may come out

of Po's mouth and what may come out of

the Q&A section but this time around it

seems like this week economic data is

kind of light the big thing is Jackson

Hole so leading up to

it we could have some volatility on the

broader Market especially considering

last week was so

good um so I think that's the big thing

but as for Bitcoin and crypto as you

guys may have noticed this week this

weekend specifically has been pretty

good we've been slowly rising up as at

this time as I'm recording bitcoin's

like

598 so closing at 60,000 we've been

slowly trending upwards but we have seen

the story before where we see Bitcoin TR

upboard and all of a sudden a big dip so

we haven't had it so far this weekend I

don't know we're go see it this

week I don't know I think as long as the

US government is not dumping more

Bitcoin I think we'll have a recovery

week right so that's asteris that's what

happened last week Bitcoin was trending

up we were doing fine and all of a

sudden we saw Bitcoin trickled down

again to like what 57,000 and now we're

coming back up again

and it was due to the US government

Department of Justice US Marshall

Services uh one of the two they decided

to move 10,000 Bitcoin to coinbase all

of a

sudden I think there's something weird

going on there I think it could be

politically

driven nevertheless that's what held

Bitcoin back I just got done saying the

broader Market including coinbase and

micro strategy had a really good

recovery week last week

but but how come Bitcoin didn't it's

because they were dumping 10,000

Bitcoin slowly over

time I'm sure they're trying not to

disrupt the price but when you sell that

much it's going to have an effect so

right before recording this I went on

Arkham and checked their um checked

their

wallet it's been like five days or six

days since the transfer no other

movement at all so that's

good so assuming that they don't have a

need to immediately dump another 10,000

Bitcoin I think this week we recover

leading up to Jackson

Hole right I just don't know I don't

know why our government now is selling

the $10,000 Bitcoin makes no sense that

600 million collected makes no

difference to them whatsoever zero zero

considering our debt is at 35 trillion

plus 600 million means

nothing really

nothing so I I do think it's somewhat

politically driven but I'm not going to

go too much into that but I do

think if you put it together kind of

makes

sense

anyways um yeah besides that I I also

looked at Mount G I looked at their

wallet they still have about

2.7 billion dollars of the Bitcoin left

which they have not distributed for

quite some time don't know why but so

far we have seen Mount gox distribution

has not

done a whole lot to disrupt bitcoin's

price it was really it really all

started with

the with a 10,000 transfer from the

Department of

Justice again don't know why but

I know a lot of you guys may be a little

worried you know thinking that there's

always something on the horizon there

there's always some big entity looking

to

dump well if you think about it not

really not really everything we're going

through

now is it's like things that we've been

worried about for years for example the

Department of Justice why do they have

so many Bitcoin to begin with well They

confiscated from the Silk Road days so

that's 2015 so they do have enormous

amount of Bitcoin and we also had

someone like mount gox mount gox was

hacked right and the trustee has a lot

of Bitcoin to distribute that was from

2014 so yeah we have some of these big

entities but that's about it we don't

have any other lingering big entities

looking to dump I mean CH does have some

I guess they could do it but I don't

think so they're actually on the

opposite end they're actually becoming

more crypto-friendly that's why the

mining activity has gone up through the

roof in China we have seen Russia now do

the same thing legalize mining which

means that they're going to legalize

crypto so seeing how these other

countries are now turning

pro um I don't I don't think we really

have to worry about them dumping what

they

have I think they're going to start

accumulating right so my point is this

fear of this like constant dumping from

these big entities we're almost through

it we're almost through it Mount GX is

almost done and once and for all that's

done us dep our government are they go

dump the remaining or that's it maybe

they're going to keep it until the next

president comes

in we'll

see so I don't know there's just not

that many big entities that are

dumping on the contrary if you think

about it there are a lot of big entities

accumulating right last week what do we

hear we had some

surprises uh Goldman Sachs all of a

sudden no one knew about this but

Goldman Sachs one of the bigger

Banks all of a sudden one their

following show that they have $400

million with the Bitcoin ETFs

out of the blue no one knew about

it that's big and other Banks like Wells

Fargo Morgan Stanley they're all

advising their wealth clients now to get

into Bitcoin

ETFs that's pretty big right so we have

large entities that's buying Bitcoin

ETS and thus causing the Bitcoin ETS to

buy

Bitcoin I've spoken about Black Rock

constantly they have over $22 billion

wor of Bitcoin I believe it's the

fastest growing ETF ever in history

according to

AUM the volume on it is like top five of

all

ETFs I mean the the numbers are

staggering and Larry f refuses to have

outflows I think one time he had an

accident and he did let it was one

session where Black Rock had outflow but

every other session since then has been

either at zero or massive

inflows because he understands he

understands so not only that I also

reported yesterday during my drive video

that we had a couple surprises from

central

banks disclosing they hold micro

strategy I mean think about it that's a

huge endorsement right that's like

Federal Reserve coming out that's like P

coming out and saying you know what

we're going to load up on micr strategy

stock that's the equivalency of that we

have central banks around the world that

are loading up on micro

strategy just take a second to think

about that that's

enormously

bullish huge endorsement right so this

notion

that oh we always have some entity to

worry about that's dumping no no no

that's not always going to be the case

okay you should think about you should

be worried about the other side we're

always going to have entities now that

will be

accumulating and if they continue to do

so while retail investors continue to

sell do the math

eventually you're just going to have big

corporations and big institutions

holding up all the Bitcoin all hold up

all the supply that's not what you want

that's not what I want that's not what

anyone wants by the way there's a nice

Cool Breeze right now that's like

70° it feels like it's go rain but it's

really really nice unlike the last two

weeks where it was really

really humid and and

itchy

anyways so

yeah um this is time to accumulate I

truly believe that I don't believe

anything has deviated Us in this in this

run in this 4E cycle the parabolic phase

is going to come this week this coming

week we could have some very bullish

things out of Paul maybe he recognizes

that hey we may have made a mistake

maybe we should have cut in July and

because of that we're going to look for

a 50 basis point cut in September

something like that

I don't know if he's going to be that

doish

but could you recognize that a lot of

our numbers are looking bad they're not

horrible but they're bad so the economy

is definitely slowing down and you could

tell you know like right now you're try

and buy a car you know you could a lot

of dealerships are selling cars below

MSRP right

so yeah we'll see we'll see what he says

but you know there could be some

volatility but then again it could be

good volatility because you because Wall

Street could predict that Paul's going

to say some doish things and this week

we have a even bigger rally than before

and if we don't have any cell pressure

from our government then we're going to

see Bitcoin go up right and the alts

have come up to slightly not as high as

a couple weeks ago but still they've

been coming up we have a few specific

ones are doing quite well and and some

of you guys are still waiting for

allcoin season I mean just know that

allcoin season again I think we'll come

we'll have another mini one just like we

had in March and July uh March and April

of this this year I predict that end of

this year we will see another mini

allcoin season and then true allcoin

season next year sometime in Q3 Q4 when

the market starts topping out if you

don't believe me just go check the

charts previous Cycles that's how it's

always been the alts are actually much

stronger this cycle than previous cycle

believe it or

not but yeah that's about it that's

about it I'm going to finish my walk so

get ready for this week I do think that

we may have some volatility doesn't mean

it's bad and Bitcoin could see a big

ride

from our current levels once we break

above 60,000 get back into

62 hey the next major level is at

637 we're can break above that we're in

really really good shape and there's no

reason why we can't break above that

level especially considering how much

shorts there are right now I mean we

we're talking about 152 billion to the

shorts waiting to be liquidated don't be

one of those people

don't be one of those people holding on

a Bitcoin short waiting to be liquidated

all right it's going to happen and it's

not going to be

pretty so that's it I'm going to finish

my walk smash a like subscribe to the

channel I'll see you guys tomorrow usual

time 8:30 a.m. Central Standard Time all

right have a good one take care by-bye