Bitcoin Holders...Prepare for This
Summary
TLDRIn this Sunday walk video, the host anticipates market volatility due to the upcoming Jackson Hole event, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech could influence the market direction. Despite a strong recovery in tech stocks and Bitcoin's slow rise, the speaker questions why crypto hasn't followed suit. They speculate on potential political influences and the US government's recent Bitcoin sales, suggesting a possible recovery if no further sales occur. The host also discusses the accumulation of Bitcoin by large entities and banks, hinting at a bullish outlook and the potential for an altcoin season towards the year's end.
Takeaways
- π The speaker anticipates volatility in the market this week, hopefully in a positive direction.
- π The upcoming Jackson Hole event, where the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak, is expected to influence market sentiment.
- π€ There is speculation about whether the Fed will make a rate cut in September, with expectations varying after Powell's previous statements.
- π The broader market had a strong recovery last week, but Bitcoin and crypto did not follow suit, raising questions about the reasons behind this divergence.
- π¦ Wall Street's actions and potential selling by the US government are considered possible factors affecting Bitcoin's price.
- π Despite some uncertainty, the speaker believes that Bitcoin and the broader market could have a recovery week, especially if there's no additional selling pressure from the US government.
- πΌ Large financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock are accumulating Bitcoin, which is seen as a bullish signal for the market.
- π International developments, such as China becoming more crypto-friendly and Russia legalizing mining, are positive for the crypto space.
- π« The fear of large entities dumping Bitcoin is diminishing as more entities are seen accumulating rather than selling.
- π The speaker predicts a potential 'altcoin season' towards the end of the year and a more significant one in the next year's Q3 or Q4 when the market may be topping out.
- π The speaker advises against holding short positions in Bitcoin, warning of the risk of being liquidated as the market may rise.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video script?
-The main topic of the video script is the anticipation of market volatility and the impact of the upcoming Jackson Hole event on the broader market and cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.
What is the significance of the Jackson Hole event in the context of the video?
-The Jackson Hole event is significant because it is where the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is expected to make a speech that could influence market expectations regarding monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts.
Why did the speaker mention the broader market's performance last week?
-The speaker mentioned the broader market's performance last week to highlight the recovery of the tech sector and to contrast it with the lack of recovery in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, despite similar market conditions.
What is the speaker's view on the potential actions of the US government regarding Bitcoin?
-The speaker speculates that the US government's recent sale of 10,000 Bitcoins might have been politically driven and expresses hope that there won't be further sales that could disrupt the Bitcoin market.
What is the connection between the Mount Gox distribution and the Bitcoin market?
-The Mount Gox distribution refers to the process of distributing the remaining Bitcoin assets from the hacked exchange. The speaker notes that this distribution has not significantly disrupted Bitcoin's price, unlike the impact of the US government's sales.
What does the speaker suggest about the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?
-The speaker suggests that despite current volatility, the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies looks positive, as large entities and even central banks are accumulating Bitcoin, which could lead to a bullish market.
What is the speaker's opinion on the current state of the economy?
-The speaker believes that the economy is slowing down, citing examples such as car dealerships selling below MSRP, and anticipates that Jerome Powell might acknowledge this in his speech, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve.
What is the '4E cycle' mentioned by the speaker?
-The '4E cycle' is not explicitly defined in the script, but it seems to refer to a pattern or cycle in the cryptocurrency market that the speaker believes is currently underway, with a parabolic phase expected to come.
What does the speaker predict for the end of the year in terms of the altcoin market?
-The speaker predicts that there will be another 'mini allcoin season' at the end of the year, with a true 'allcoin season' expected in the next year, particularly in Q3 or Q4, when the market starts topping out.
How does the speaker view the role of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market?
-The speaker views institutional investors as significant players in the cryptocurrency market, noting that their accumulation of Bitcoin could eventually lead to a scenario where they hold a large portion of the supply, which could have implications for the market dynamics.
What advice does the speaker give to those who might be holding a short position in Bitcoin?
-The speaker advises against holding a short position in Bitcoin, warning that a significant price increase could lead to liquidation of shorts, and encourages viewers not to be among those who suffer such losses.
Outlines
π Anticipating Market Volatility and Jackson Hole Event
The speaker begins by greeting viewers and referencing a previous video about a crypto cruise. They predict market volatility for the week, possibly positive, but also foresee a weaker broader market due to an upcoming event in the US. The focus is on the Federal Reserve Chair's speech at Jackson Hole, which is anticipated to provide insights into the economy's health and potential interest rate cuts. The speaker reflects on the previous week's market recovery, particularly in the tech sector, but notes the surprising lack of recovery in Bitcoin and crypto, suggesting that Wall Street is not selling off Bitcoin.
π¦ Impact of Government Bitcoin Transactions on the Market
This paragraph delves into the US government's recent transfer of 10,000 Bitcoins to Coinbase, which the speaker suspects may have negatively impacted Bitcoin's price. They speculate that this could be politically driven and express confusion over the government's decision to sell such a large amount of Bitcoin, given its insignificance relative to the national debt. The speaker also mentions the Mount Gox distribution and its minimal impact on Bitcoin's price, suggesting that the fear of large-scale Bitcoin dumping by entities like the Department of Justice and Mount Gox is nearing an end.
π Global Institutional Interest in Bitcoin
The speaker discusses the growing interest of global institutions in Bitcoin, highlighting Goldman Sachs' undisclosed $400 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs and similar moves by other major banks. They also mention the significant holdings of Bitcoin by BlackRock and the endorsement of MicroStrategy by central banks, indicating a trend of accumulation rather than selling. The speaker argues against the notion of constant Bitcoin dumping by large entities and suggests that the market is moving towards a scenario where large corporations and institutions hold most of the Bitcoin supply.
π Preparing for a Bullish Week and the Possibility of an Altcoin Season
In the final paragraph, the speaker expresses optimism for a bullish week, anticipating potential positive news from the Federal Reserve Chair's speech at Jackson Hole. They predict that if there is no selling pressure from the government, Bitcoin could experience a significant rise. The speaker also touches on the possibility of another 'altcoin season' towards the end of the year and into the next, based on historical market cycles, and advises against holding short positions in Bitcoin due to the large amount of shorts waiting to be liquidated.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Volatility
π‘Jackson Hole
π‘FOMC Meeting
π‘Rate Cut
π‘Tech Sell-Off
π‘MicroStrategy
π‘Coinbase
π‘Bitcoin
π‘ETFs
π‘Mount Gox
π‘Accumulation
π‘Altcoin Season
Highlights
Expectation of market volatility this week, potentially positive due to an upcoming event in the US.
The broader market is anticipated to be weaker due to an event in Jackson Hole.
Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is expected to make a significant speech at Jackson Hole.
Speculation on whether the Fed will cut rates by 2 or 50 basis points in September.
Last week's market recovery, especially in the tech sector, with companies like Nvidia and Tesla showing significant gains.
MicroStrategy and Coinbase had a good week, but Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies did not follow suit.
Discussion on Wall Street not being the main seller of Bitcoin currently.
The US government's potential influence on Bitcoin's price through the sale of 10,000 Bitcoins.
Bitcoin's slow recovery over the weekend, with a cautious note on potential dips.
The distribution of Bitcoin from the Mt. Gox hack and its minimal impact on the market.
China and Russia becoming more crypto-friendly, with increased mining activities and legalization of mining.
Large financial institutions like Goldman Sachs investing in Bitcoin ETFs.
Central banks disclosing holdings in MicroStrategy, seen as a significant endorsement for Bitcoin.
The potential accumulation of Bitcoin by large corporations and institutions, leaving less supply for retail investors.
Prediction of a bullish parabolic phase for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
The possibility of a 'mini altcoin season' towards the end of the year, with a full altcoin season expected in 2023.
Advice against holding short positions in Bitcoin, warning of potential liquidation.
Transcripts
welcome back to another Sunday walk
video hopefully you guys enjoyed my
crypto Cruise
yesterday I had fun recording it
hopefully you guys enjoyed it so I will
continue to do
so uh but
today Sunday walk what do I have to talk
about mostly what to expect this week I
think we will see some volatility this
week hopefully in a good way but I do
think the market overall broader Market
this week
will be weaker because of this one event
that's coming up in the
US
and let's talk about it um so what is
this event well that chair pile is going
to Jackson
hle and
normally you know it's it's a place of
relaxation right but uh but you know
Paul has been making speeches from
jackon Jackson Hole and a lot of eyes
are on him this time around
because obviously we don't have a fomc
meeting this month so this is the first
time
people I guess the first time he's
speaking and people want to know like
hey what are you thinking right is the
economy doing well is it not doing well
this Ray cut that's coming in September
are you going to do 2 basis points are
50 um so everyone wants to know what
he's thinking right because
obviously in
July he said no we need to wait a little
bit more no Ray cut in July and a lot of
people disagree with that a lot of
people thought that he should have done
one
already um and shortly after that Japan
happened you know um and markets crashed
we had a horrible horrible crash for a
couple weeks last week however we
actually came back up so last week
actually for the broader Market was
pretty fantastic a lot of the tech
sell-offs like kind of recover the tech
sector came up in a big way I know
Nvidia Tesla and others they came up in
a big way not back to their previous
high but getting up there and even
here's the thing even mic strategy and
coinbase they had a pretty good week we
saw them recover up too but the thing is
how come they
recovered
but
um how come they recovered but Bitcoin
and crypto did not right so that's the
question question mark so that was
surprising and I mentioned it in my
streams last week
I'm like if you pay attention micro
strategy in Co is going up but Bitcoin
is not so obviously Wall Street is not
the culprit they're not the ones selling
off Bitcoin right now and there's so
much proof of
that
so I guess bottom line is this week I
think just like all other weeks when we
had like a big fomc meeting coming up we
had volatility
right because Wall Street is kind of
like you know trying to predict what may
what may uh you know what may come out
of Po's mouth and what may come out of
the Q&A section but this time around it
seems like this week economic data is
kind of light the big thing is Jackson
Hole so leading up to
it we could have some volatility on the
broader Market especially considering
last week was so
good um so I think that's the big thing
but as for Bitcoin and crypto as you
guys may have noticed this week this
weekend specifically has been pretty
good we've been slowly rising up as at
this time as I'm recording bitcoin's
like
598 so closing at 60,000 we've been
slowly trending upwards but we have seen
the story before where we see Bitcoin TR
upboard and all of a sudden a big dip so
we haven't had it so far this weekend I
don't know we're go see it this
week I don't know I think as long as the
US government is not dumping more
Bitcoin I think we'll have a recovery
week right so that's asteris that's what
happened last week Bitcoin was trending
up we were doing fine and all of a
sudden we saw Bitcoin trickled down
again to like what 57,000 and now we're
coming back up again
and it was due to the US government
Department of Justice US Marshall
Services uh one of the two they decided
to move 10,000 Bitcoin to coinbase all
of a
sudden I think there's something weird
going on there I think it could be
politically
driven nevertheless that's what held
Bitcoin back I just got done saying the
broader Market including coinbase and
micro strategy had a really good
recovery week last week
but but how come Bitcoin didn't it's
because they were dumping 10,000
Bitcoin slowly over
time I'm sure they're trying not to
disrupt the price but when you sell that
much it's going to have an effect so
right before recording this I went on
Arkham and checked their um checked
their
wallet it's been like five days or six
days since the transfer no other
movement at all so that's
good so assuming that they don't have a
need to immediately dump another 10,000
Bitcoin I think this week we recover
leading up to Jackson
Hole right I just don't know I don't
know why our government now is selling
the $10,000 Bitcoin makes no sense that
600 million collected makes no
difference to them whatsoever zero zero
considering our debt is at 35 trillion
plus 600 million means
nothing really
nothing so I I do think it's somewhat
politically driven but I'm not going to
go too much into that but I do
think if you put it together kind of
makes
sense
anyways um yeah besides that I I also
looked at Mount G I looked at their
wallet they still have about
2.7 billion dollars of the Bitcoin left
which they have not distributed for
quite some time don't know why but so
far we have seen Mount gox distribution
has not
done a whole lot to disrupt bitcoin's
price it was really it really all
started with
the with a 10,000 transfer from the
Department of
Justice again don't know why but
I know a lot of you guys may be a little
worried you know thinking that there's
always something on the horizon there
there's always some big entity looking
to
dump well if you think about it not
really not really everything we're going
through
now is it's like things that we've been
worried about for years for example the
Department of Justice why do they have
so many Bitcoin to begin with well They
confiscated from the Silk Road days so
that's 2015 so they do have enormous
amount of Bitcoin and we also had
someone like mount gox mount gox was
hacked right and the trustee has a lot
of Bitcoin to distribute that was from
2014 so yeah we have some of these big
entities but that's about it we don't
have any other lingering big entities
looking to dump I mean CH does have some
I guess they could do it but I don't
think so they're actually on the
opposite end they're actually becoming
more crypto-friendly that's why the
mining activity has gone up through the
roof in China we have seen Russia now do
the same thing legalize mining which
means that they're going to legalize
crypto so seeing how these other
countries are now turning
pro um I don't I don't think we really
have to worry about them dumping what
they
have I think they're going to start
accumulating right so my point is this
fear of this like constant dumping from
these big entities we're almost through
it we're almost through it Mount GX is
almost done and once and for all that's
done us dep our government are they go
dump the remaining or that's it maybe
they're going to keep it until the next
president comes
in we'll
see so I don't know there's just not
that many big entities that are
dumping on the contrary if you think
about it there are a lot of big entities
accumulating right last week what do we
hear we had some
surprises uh Goldman Sachs all of a
sudden no one knew about this but
Goldman Sachs one of the bigger
Banks all of a sudden one their
following show that they have $400
million with the Bitcoin ETFs
out of the blue no one knew about
it that's big and other Banks like Wells
Fargo Morgan Stanley they're all
advising their wealth clients now to get
into Bitcoin
ETFs that's pretty big right so we have
large entities that's buying Bitcoin
ETS and thus causing the Bitcoin ETS to
buy
Bitcoin I've spoken about Black Rock
constantly they have over $22 billion
wor of Bitcoin I believe it's the
fastest growing ETF ever in history
according to
AUM the volume on it is like top five of
all
ETFs I mean the the numbers are
staggering and Larry f refuses to have
outflows I think one time he had an
accident and he did let it was one
session where Black Rock had outflow but
every other session since then has been
either at zero or massive
inflows because he understands he
understands so not only that I also
reported yesterday during my drive video
that we had a couple surprises from
central
banks disclosing they hold micro
strategy I mean think about it that's a
huge endorsement right that's like
Federal Reserve coming out that's like P
coming out and saying you know what
we're going to load up on micr strategy
stock that's the equivalency of that we
have central banks around the world that
are loading up on micro
strategy just take a second to think
about that that's
enormously
bullish huge endorsement right so this
notion
that oh we always have some entity to
worry about that's dumping no no no
that's not always going to be the case
okay you should think about you should
be worried about the other side we're
always going to have entities now that
will be
accumulating and if they continue to do
so while retail investors continue to
sell do the math
eventually you're just going to have big
corporations and big institutions
holding up all the Bitcoin all hold up
all the supply that's not what you want
that's not what I want that's not what
anyone wants by the way there's a nice
Cool Breeze right now that's like
70Β° it feels like it's go rain but it's
really really nice unlike the last two
weeks where it was really
really humid and and
itchy
anyways so
yeah um this is time to accumulate I
truly believe that I don't believe
anything has deviated Us in this in this
run in this 4E cycle the parabolic phase
is going to come this week this coming
week we could have some very bullish
things out of Paul maybe he recognizes
that hey we may have made a mistake
maybe we should have cut in July and
because of that we're going to look for
a 50 basis point cut in September
something like that
I don't know if he's going to be that
doish
but could you recognize that a lot of
our numbers are looking bad they're not
horrible but they're bad so the economy
is definitely slowing down and you could
tell you know like right now you're try
and buy a car you know you could a lot
of dealerships are selling cars below
MSRP right
so yeah we'll see we'll see what he says
but you know there could be some
volatility but then again it could be
good volatility because you because Wall
Street could predict that Paul's going
to say some doish things and this week
we have a even bigger rally than before
and if we don't have any cell pressure
from our government then we're going to
see Bitcoin go up right and the alts
have come up to slightly not as high as
a couple weeks ago but still they've
been coming up we have a few specific
ones are doing quite well and and some
of you guys are still waiting for
allcoin season I mean just know that
allcoin season again I think we'll come
we'll have another mini one just like we
had in March and July uh March and April
of this this year I predict that end of
this year we will see another mini
allcoin season and then true allcoin
season next year sometime in Q3 Q4 when
the market starts topping out if you
don't believe me just go check the
charts previous Cycles that's how it's
always been the alts are actually much
stronger this cycle than previous cycle
believe it or
not but yeah that's about it that's
about it I'm going to finish my walk so
get ready for this week I do think that
we may have some volatility doesn't mean
it's bad and Bitcoin could see a big
ride
from our current levels once we break
above 60,000 get back into
62 hey the next major level is at
637 we're can break above that we're in
really really good shape and there's no
reason why we can't break above that
level especially considering how much
shorts there are right now I mean we
we're talking about 152 billion to the
shorts waiting to be liquidated don't be
one of those people
don't be one of those people holding on
a Bitcoin short waiting to be liquidated
all right it's going to happen and it's
not going to be
pretty so that's it I'm going to finish
my walk smash a like subscribe to the
channel I'll see you guys tomorrow usual
time 8:30 a.m. Central Standard Time all
right have a good one take care by-bye
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