Why Wagner Coup ACTUALLY Stopped before Moscow

Summary

The script narrates the rise and fall of an Afghani-Russian figure, Pagosian, who amassed wealth and power through military contracts and the Wagner mercenary group. After a failed rebellion against the Russian Ministry of Defense, suspected to be fueled by a desire for power and respect, he negotiated exile in Belarus. The account explores the complex relationship between Pagosian, Putin, and the Russian military, culminating in a dramatic standoff that questioned loyalty and authority within Russia's power structures.

Takeaways

• 🌟 Prigozhin grew up poor in Saint Petersburg and was in and out of prison until age 30.
• 🌭 After prison, Prigozhin started a successful chain of hot dog stands, then opened high-class restaurants.
• 🤝 Prigozhin's relationship with Putin began when Putin frequented one of his restaurants.
• 💼 Putin later awarded Prigozhin military contracts worth billions, making him wealthy and influential.
• 🎖️ Prigozhin founded the Wagner mercenary group in 2014, leveraging military connections.
• 🎥 In 2022, Prigozhin publicly recruited convicts for Wagner, increasing its numbers significantly.
• ⚔️ Wagner played a crucial role in the capture of Bakhmut during the Russia-Ukraine war.
• 🗣️ Prigozhin became a vocal critic of the Russian Ministry of Defense, accusing them of high treason.
• 🚛 On June 23, 2023, Prigozhin launched an armed rebellion, marching towards Moscow with Wagner forces.
• 🛑 The rebellion was halted within 120 miles of Moscow, and Prigozhin negotiated a deal for exile in Belarus.

Q & A

What was the initial occupation of the Afghani pagosian before he became involved with the Wagner mercenaries?

Afghani pagosian initially set up a successful chain of hot dog stands in Saint Petersburg, which later expanded to high-class restaurants in the city during the 1990s.

How did pagosian and Vladimir Putin likely meet and develop a relationship?

Vladimir Putin, who had recently quit the intelligence service to start a career in politics, took a liking to one of pagosian's restaurants called New Island, which is where the two likely met and hit it off.

What was the turning point for pagosian that led to him being thrust into the spotlight?

The turning point for pagosian was on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, which brought him into the public eye.

Why did pagosian publicly record and release a video of him recruiting convicts from Russia's prisons?

Pogosian recorded and released the video in September 2022 to recruit tens of thousands of murderers and convicts for his storm units, promising them freedom if they survived a six-month contract.

What was the significance of pagosian's criticism of the Russian Ministry of Defense on October 1, 2022?

His criticism was significant because it was one of the first public breaks of Russian war censorship laws, openly criticizing the Russian Ministry of Defense and marking a turning point in his stance against the government.

Why did pagosian accuse the Russian Ministry of Defense of high treason in May 2023?

Pogosian accused the Ministry of high treason due to the lack of ammunition being supplied to Wagner forces, which he equated to a deliberate attempt to starve them of essential resources.

What was the Russian government's response to pagosian's public refusal to sign contracts with the proper Russian military?

The Russian government, authorized by Putin, ordered all volunteer detachments to sign contracts with the proper Russian military by a deadline, attempting to remove pagosian from his position of power quietly.

What evidence suggested that pagosian was preparing for an armed rebellion?

U.S intelligence networks observed signs of pagosian preparing and stockpiling equipment and materials for a rebellion, and unconfirmed reports indicated that the Russian government was preparing to arrest him for insubordination.

Why did pagosian's forces not receive the widespread support from regular Russian soldiers that he had hoped for?

Pogosian had overestimated his influence, and the support he needed did not materialize in the vast numbers he required. Additionally, the Russian government fought back by creating competing video messages and restricting internet access to reduce the reach of pagosian's messages.

What was the negotiated outcome for pagosian after the failed rebellion attempt?

Pogosian negotiated with Belarus President Lukashenko to reach an agreement where he would be given a pardon and allowed to live in exile in Belarus.

What were the implications of the failed rebellion for the Wagner forces and the Russian military?

The agreement stated that all Wagner forces would pull back and those who didn't join the rebellion would sign contracts with the Russian military and be absorbed into their forces. The ones that participated in the rebellion were given a pardon and would face no backlash.

Outlines

00:00

🏰 Rise of Pogossian and Wagner Group

This paragraph details the ascent of an Afghani man named Pogossian, who started as a poor individual in Saint Petersburg and eventually became a wealthy entrepreneur with ties to Vladimir Putin. His journey included a period of frequent imprisonment, the establishment of a successful hot dog stand chain, and later, high-class restaurants. One of these eateries, New Island, became the meeting ground for Pogossian and Putin. As Putin's political career took off, Pogossian benefited from lucrative military contracts, leading to his involvement with the Wagner mercenary group. By 2022, Pogossian's role in Wagner had expanded significantly, and he began recruiting convicts for the group, promising them freedom in exchange for service. His actions during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and his public criticism of the Russian government marked a turning point in his quest for power and respect.

05:01

🛡️ Pogossian's Rebellion and March of Justice

The second paragraph unfolds the story of Pogossian's rebellion against the Russian government and military. After a series of public confrontations and criticisms against the Ministry of Defense, Pogossian escalated his actions by accusing them of deliberately starving Wagner forces of ammunition. This led to a dramatic situation where he threatened to withdraw his forces from key positions, effectively holding strategic locations hostage. His rebellion culminated in a direct appeal to Russian soldiers to join him in a 'March of Justice,' positioning himself as a champion against corrupt military leadership. Despite initial support, Pogossian's rebellion faced significant challenges as he approached Moscow, with his forces being a fraction of what he needed to succeed.

10:03

🚨 The Capture of Rostov and Standoff with Moscow

In this paragraph, Pogossian's forces capture the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov, taking the deputy defense minister hostage and demanding ammunition and supplies. Despite initial successes and support from some Russian civilians, Pogossian's advance towards Moscow is met with fierce resistance. Russian forces, under orders from Putin, begin to dismantle the infrastructure and deploy air power against Wagner's forces. As Pogossian's convoy nears Moscow, it becomes clear that the widespread support he hoped for is not materializing, and his forces are divided and weakened by airstrikes. This leads to negotiations for a peaceful resolution, hinting at a failed coup attempt by Pogossian.

15:04

🛑 The Aftermath and Pogossian's Exile

The final paragraph describes the aftermath of Pogossian's rebellion and his eventual exile. Following negotiations, Pogossian's forces turn back from Moscow, and he claims to have avoided further bloodshed. Despite this, there are lingering questions about his future and the impact of his actions on the Russian military leadership. Pogossian attempts to downplay the rebellion, claiming it was a protest that has now concluded. However, the implications of his rebellion are far-reaching, with potential repercussions for both him and the Wagner forces. The story concludes with Pogossian reportedly flying to Belarus, hinting at a possible exile, though the full consequences of his actions remain uncertain.

Keywords

💡Wagner mercenaries

Wagner mercenaries refer to the private military company known as the Wagner Group, which is associated with Russia. In the video, they are depicted as a powerful force that plays a significant role in the conflict, being led by the character Pogosian. The script mentions them halting their advance near Moscow, indicating their involvement in a larger political and military struggle.

💡Coup d'etat

A coup d'etat is the overthrow of an existing government, typically through the use of force or illegal means. The video script explores the possibility that Pogosian's actions were an attempt at a coup, suggesting that his movement of Wagner mercenaries towards Moscow could have been a power grab.

💡Armed Rebellion

Armed Rebellion denotes an uprising against an established authority, often involving the use of arms. The script describes Pogosian's actions as potentially constituting an armed rebellion, particularly when he directs his forces against the Russian government and military leadership.

💡Pogosian

Pogosian is a central character in the video script, who is portrayed as a figure with a complex background, from a poor upbringing to becoming a wealthy businessman with political connections. His actions and motivations are central to the narrative, as he leads the Wagner mercenaries in a confrontation with the Russian government.

💡Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Putin is the President of Russia and a key political figure in the video's narrative. The script suggests that Pogosian's relationship with Putin is significant, with Pogosian initially benefiting from Putin's political rise but later becoming a figure of opposition.

💡Bakhmut

Bakhmut is a city in Ukraine that, according to the script, becomes a focal point of the conflict. The Wagner mercenaries are instrumental in its capture, which underscores their importance in the military operations described in the video.

💡Mutiny

Mutiny generally refers to a refusal to obey orders, often by members of a military unit. In the context of the video, the term is used to describe the rebellion led by Pogosian and the Wagner mercenaries against the Russian military and government authorities.

💡Russian Ministry of Defense

The Russian Ministry of Defense is the government agency responsible for the military establishment in Russia. The script indicates that Pogosian accuses this ministry of deliberate actions against the Wagner forces, such as withholding ammunition, which becomes a catalyst for the conflict.

💡Exile

Exile is a state of being expelled or forced to leave one's country. The video script suggests that Pogosian is offered exile in Belarus as part of a negotiation to end the rebellion, highlighting the political compromise that arises from the conflict.

💡Rebellion

Rebellion in this context refers to a violent or non-violent resistance against an established government or ruling authority. The script details Pogosian's rebellion, which is directed at the Russian government and military, and the subsequent negotiations that lead to its resolution.

💡Pardon

A pardon is an act of forgiveness or mercy, often免除ing someone of punishment for a crime. In the script, Pogosian and the Wagner forces that participated in the rebellion are granted a pardon, indicating an official response to their actions and a means to de-escalate the situation.

Highlights

Pregosian's origins: grew up poor in Saint Petersburg, in and out of prison from 18 to 30.

Established successful hot dog stands and later high-class restaurants in the 1990s.

Met Vladimir Putin at one of his restaurants, New Island, leading to significant military contracts.

Founded the Wagner mercenary group with Dimitri Uken, a Russian special forces veteran.

Wagner's role in Russia's capture of Bakhmut and Pregosian's public relations skills.

Pregosian's outspoken criticism of Russian military leadership and Ministry of Defense.

June 23, Pregosian accused Russian forces of attacking Wagner, leading to the 'March of Justice.'

Wagner mercenaries captured Southern Military District command in Rostov on June 24.

Pregosian's hopes for regular Russian soldiers to join his revolt.

Russian government restricted internet access and opened a criminal case against Pregosian.

Putin called Pregosian's actions a criminal enterprise and betrayal.

Wagner forces advanced towards Moscow but faced resistance and airstrikes.

Negotiations led by Belarus president Lukashenko resulted in Pregosian's exile.

Pregosian's claims of avoiding bloodshed by turning back and his forces retreating.

Uncertain future for Wagner forces and Pregosian's fate in Belarus.

Transcripts

why did you Afghani pagosian stop his

force of 8500 Wagner mercenaries just as

we were within 120 miles of Moscow what

was his true intentions was it a coup

d'etat armed Rebellion or something else

entirely pagosian's Origins give us some

hints into what he truly wanted he grew

up poor in Saint Petersburg in the 1960s

he was in and out of prison from the age

of 18 until he was 30 years old once he

was released he set up a successful

chain of hot dog stands in Saint

Petersburg porgosian used that money to

open up expensive high-class restaurants

in the city during the 1990s at the same

time Vladimir Putin had recently quit

the intelligence service to start a

career in politics he took a liking to

one of pagosian's restaurants called New

Island this is where the two likely met

and hit it off and once Putin became

president he started showering his new

buddy pagosian with military contracts

worth one billion dollars to cater the

Russian military pagosian was now a rich

man with Connections in very high places

but he still lacked two things power and

unconditional respect reports from those

who know pagosian personally say he's

largely driven by the love of the game

the thrill of the chase money was never

his main concern according to those

close to him from his perspective he's

battling corrupt Russian elites on

behalf of the Common Man in the

mid-2000s pagosian saw an Avenue to earn

the power and respect he desired his

head of security Dimitri uken was a

Russian special forces veteran who used

his military connections to start the

Wagner mercenary group in 2014.

pregosian likely connected oogen's

mercenaries with Russia's President

Putin this got them access to Priority

Security Contracts around the world

burgosian came to be known as this

mysterious behind the scenes unofficial

unconfirmed co-founder of the

organization however that would change

on February 24 2022 when Russia invaded

Ukraine and it thrust him into the

spotlight in September 2022 pregosian

recorded a video and released it

publicly of him recruiting tens of

thousands of murderers and convicts from

Russia's worst prisons promising if they

joined his storm units for a six-month

contract they would then be set free if

they survived these prisoners would

inflate the ranks of Wagner forces from

an estimated 10 000 up to 50 000

soldiers that same month he claimed to

the press that he was indeed the founder

of the Wagner group he proved to be very

talented in public relations after being

the shadows for decades burgosian

traveled to the dumb boss to personally

oversee the Wagner mercenaries progress

in photo ops he was frequently seen on

the front lines wearing military

fatigues these Wagner mercenaries became

instrumental in the Russian capture of

bakmut which had become the focus of

their war effort Putin had become overly

dependent on pagosian and his fiercely

loyal private military company this was

a vulnerability for him this gave

pagosian the power to criticize the

Russian government and regular military

without fear of reprisal on the 1st of

October 2022 after the Ukrainian first

counter-offensive retook large sections

of their territory this was a turning

point for pregosian and may give us the

first hints of him testing open

Rebellion he became one of the only

people in Russia to publicly break the

Russian war censorship laws by

criticizing the Russian Ministry of

Defense he became an outspoken critic

saying that the Russian commanders were

bastards that ought to be sent to the

front line Barefoot with Justice

submachine gun then in February 2023 he

escalated his criticisms by accusing the

Russian Ministry of Defense of refusing

to send supplies and Munitions to Wagner

forces on purpose they were deliberately

starving Wagner forces of ammunition a

lot of people wonder how Putin didn't

see this Mutiny forming right under his

nose but he probably did this is why

they were trying to starve the Wagner

group of supplies and force them to toe

the line but these attempts to control

pregosian only led him to escalate he

made his first direct accusations

against the Russian Ministry of Defense

when he said the lack of ammo can be

equated with high treason on May 4th

2023 pagosian made a video addressing

shogu yelling shoigu where the is

the ammunition the next day he announced

that since he wasn't getting ammo he

would pull his forces off the front line

he was threatening to collapse the front

lines in their most important objective

he was essentially holding bakmut

hostage from Putin he was using all of

his leverage pagosian blamed Russian

defense minister Sergey shogu for the

lack of supplies and for the death of

tens of thousands of Wagner soldiers he

made statements that shoigu was a fat

cat sitting in his luxury offices Wagner

forces were then supposedly given the

ammunition that they were calling for

and they were appeased for a moment they

stayed on the front lines long enough to

capture the majority the city of bakmut

by May 20th 2023 this earned pogosian

The Respect power love and Adoration of

many people in Russia and in the Russian

military he was now seen as a national

hero by many however by now Wagner

forces were exhausted from over a year

of fighting and they were being replaced

by regular Russian conscripts and

soldiers pagosian sensed he was losing

his leverage fast the final straw came

for pagosian on June 10th when the

Russian Ministry of Defense ordered all

volunteer detachments to sign contracts

with the proper Russian military by a

deadline of July 1st like the lack of

ammunition this was a move authorized by

Putin and it was designed to completely

remove pagosian from his position of

power but he wanted to do it quietly

other private military companies

instantly fell in line and signed the

contracts without dispute but pagosian

recorded a video publicly refusing to

sign the contract it would essentially

mean the end of his power and influence

if he did it would be the end of Wagner

all his mercenaries would be dissolved

into the Russian military unconfirmed

reports indicate the Russian government

was actually getting ready to arrest

pagosian for this continued

insubordination he saw this as an

existential threat against him according

to the U.S intelligence networks they

saw signs of pagosian preparing and

stockpiling equipment and materials for

the Rebellion at this point weeks prior

to the launch if pagosian was going to

act it would have to be now so on the

night of June 23rd at 2100 hours

pagosian posted video footage claiming

to be evidence of a Wagner Camp being

struck deliberately by Russian forces

killing dozens of his men this might

have been a false flag attack though a

fake attack designed to justify the

armed Rebellion that would follow then

pagosian released a series of angry

statements on telegram that were aimed

at every regular Rank and file Russian

sold Soldier he requested that they join

him in what he called his March of

Justice against the incompetent Russian

military leadership in the ministry of

defense that he claimed had misled

President Putin about a false pretense

to get into the war in Ukraine on June

24th at 4 44 in the morning he took

between 8 500 and 4 000 of his most

loyal mercenaries and up to 350 pieces

of heavy equipment to take over the

South Military District command in

rostov bergosian claimed to have 25 000

troops but this was likely an

exaggeration he did have with him nine

main battle tanks some t90s four tiger

Vehicles a Grodd mlrs system a Howitzer

and a pan sear S1 air defense system and

infantry fighting Vehicles if his plan

was going to work pregosian needed to

leverage his social media influence to

convince regular everyday Russian troops

to join his Revolt because he only had a

small group of soldiers he did didn't

have the Manpower necessary on his own

the reason he didn't call this action a

coup was twofold first because it would

be harder for these Russian soldiers to

swallow they'd be less sympathetic to

join a coup which seemed like treason

but to revolt against the terrible

Russian military leadership that they

might stomach second not calling a coup

also gave him the wiggle room to cut a

deal if his plan failed and he could say

it was all just simply a protest let's

look at what signals pagosian had in

front of him at that moment that might

indicate he could convince regular

soldiers to join him we know many

Russian soldiers hadn't been paid and

hadn't taken leave to go home in months

instead of the two thousand five hundred

and sixty dollars they were owed each

month Russian soldiers say they've been

paid several times less that each

paycheck some regular soldiers and

conscripts had complained about not

being paid in two months straight there

are two things you can't mess with when

it comes to soldiers Can't Screw with

their paycheck and you can't screw at

their child bergosian also played

claimed Russian casualties were many

times higher than reported by the

ministry of Defense if soldiers feel

their lives are being wasted away they

might be at a Tipping Point to revolt if

they think they're going to die on the

front anyway the Russian government

started fighting back instantly former

Russian commanders instantly created

competing video messages addressing

their troops begging them to not follow

pagosian and to not follow the Wagner

units they restricted internet access to

reduce the effectiveness and reach of

pagosian's messages Russia's FSB opened

up a criminal case against pagosian for

inciting an armed Rebellion but by

Saturday June 24th 6 59 in the morning

local time in rostov progosian in his

armed soldiers had already captured and

surrounded the Southern military

District headquarters in rostov a city

with a population of one million people

pergosian captured the deputy defense

minister in rostov and humiliated him

during a forced meeting with him saying

our men die because you treat them like

meat no ammo no plans pregosian

threatened him saying that he wasn't

handed shoigu the geriatric clown then

he would take his soldiers and March on

Moscow Saturday June 24th around 10 38

a.m in the morning Putin made an address

calling pregosian's campaign a criminal

Enterprise and an armed Insurgency of

betrayal and treason directly after

Putin's address the Wagner telegram

account wrote The Following at 10 54.

Putin made the wrong choice so much

worse for him soon we will have a new

president

Wagner started heading straight up the

M4 Highway in Russia meanwhile Russian

units were busy reinforcing moscow's

defenses Wagner was breezing past

checkpoints at first in fact they were

often greeted with Russian civilians who

were cheering them on but it's a long

16-hour drive from rostov to Moscow and

this gave Putin's forces enough time to

start tearing up the M4 Highway and

descend attack helicopters and planes

against pagosian's forces Wagner shot

down two combat helicopters four

Transport Aircraft and one plane during

this time killing at least 13 Russians

by 11AM the morning Moscow time Wagner

forces had made it past veronis in

Russia where police and National Guard

units appear to be laying down their

arms and letting Wagner roll through

pregosian was hoping by the time he got

to Moscow he would be reinforced by

thousands of rebellious regular Russian

soldiers airstrikes started to Pummel

the route to Moscow this would be like

if Blackwater marched on Philadelphia

and held that hostage and any military

base in the state until they were able

to replace the United States defense

secretary Lloyd Austin but as pregosian

got closer and closer to Moscow the

support he needed did not materialize in

the vast numbers he required he hoped

support would snowball and pick up a

life of its own by this point but the

signs were not pointing in his favor

airstrikes in front of the Convoy were

setting him back burgosian had

overestimated his influence by 1800

hours on June 24th the Wagner Convoy had

split into three separate columns likely

dispersed by Russian air power within

120 miles of Moscow so close at so far

his forces were likely starting to take

casualties from Russian airstrikes and

artillery but pragosian did still have

enough Firepower to cause a horrible

headache for Putin if he decided to

continue to assault Moscow he still had

that leverage but he would have

struggled to take the capital city in a

prolonged fight this is probably why

both sides wanted to negotiate an end to

this to avoid further embarrassment

neither side was 100 confident in the

outcome I think all of this evidence

presented so far suggests that this was

a failed coup attempt by pregosian he

disguised it to look like a protest in

case it didn't work out in his favor and

he could do that at the last possible

minute once he got within 120 miles of

Moscow and his forces were getting

battered by Russian air power and

additional units weren't showing up he

needed to cut a deal and pretend this

wasn't a coup the chechnyan leader of a

mercenary group said his Fighters were

prepared to help put down the Mutiny and

they were likely on their way to

intercept pagosian it was not looking

good and the walls were closing in the

official Reports say burgosia negotiated

with Belarus president lukashenko to

reach an agreement where he would be

given a pardon and could go live in

Exile in Belarus it probably wouldn't

have looked good for Putin to kill eight

to four thousand Wagner mercenaries and

lose thousands of his own men in the

process right on the doorstep to the

Capitol City the reason burgosian had to

negotiate with lukashenko instead of

Putin is because it would have been

humiliating for Putin a man of such

great power as himself to negotiate

directly with a convict and former chef

of his this is a lose-lose for both men

here burgosian being exiled to Belarus

is not the fate of someone who is

Victorious at 2024 Moscow time the night

of June 24th bergogen ordered his units

to turn around and head back south to

their training camps and the front lines

in Ukraine an acceptable deal had been

reached he claimed pagosian was able to

save face by saying he decided to turn

back to avoid Russian Bloodshed he was

seen driving out of rostov in a black

SUV fans and admirers were still

cheering him on from the side of the

road but what had he really accomplished

it looks like he mainly saved his own

skin but it's tough to tell at this

point it didn't appear like Russian

military leadership would be changed

Sergey shoigu would still stay empowered

seemed like which is what he claimed he

wanted to change all along although that

is still subject to change it didn't

appear like he would retain control of

Wagner forces another thing that he said

he wanted the British Security Forces

told the telegraph that they believed

Russian intelligence Services had likely

threatened to harm the families of

Wagner commanders inside of Russia who

agreed to participate in a mutiny it's

possible that this is one of the reasons

or theories as to why pagosian called

off the capture of Moscow in the

aftermath of the failed Rebellion on

June 26 Sergey shogu was seen on video

with Russian troops which appeared to

suggest by the Russian government that

he was not thrown out of power as part

of the deal cut with pagosian questions

remain could burgosian really go live in

peace next door in Belarus for the

remainder of his life after he was

disloyal to Putin on June 26 burgosian

released an audio communication claiming

that he wasn't actually trying to

overthrow the government and he turned

around after his protest was completed

he was really walk talking back his coup

notably he admitted his forces

regrettably had to shoot down Russian

helicopters Putin released a statement

that he would have been able to crush

the Rebellion whether they had turned

back or not on June 27th flight data

belonging to the Wagner private plane

was seen flying from rostov to Belarus a

possible hint that he had gone into

Exile but Putin is known for having his

opponents killed for far less this was

the greatest threat to his power in two

decades there are many hardliners now in

Russia who are pissed off that pagosian

and Wagner essentially get away without

even a slap on the wrist after they

murked over a dozen Russian Airmen the

agreement stated all Wagner forces would

pull back and that Wagner who didn't

join the Rebellion would sign contracts

with the Russian military of defense and

be absorbed into their forces the ones

that did do the Mutiny were given a

pardon and would face no backlash for

the Rebellion even though they had

allegedly killed over a dozen Russian

Pilots at this point this is still

developed story and any of this is

subject to change will Wagner forces

peacefully assimilate into Russian army

units we don't know they could be

mistreated and sent to punishment

brigades that are used as just human

wave assaults to punish them for their

part in the Mutiny for Goshen a 62 year

old former chef of Putin who grew up on

the same St Petersburg streets was a

petty criminal term multi-millionaire

businessman his influence was created by

Putin and the Kremlin he then started a

failed armed Rebellion against at least

the Russian Ministry of defense and if

things have manifested differently

probably against the entire Russian

government itself but what do you think

in the comments section was this a coup

d'etat or Rebellion or Mutiny or are you

one of the people who believes this

whole thing was some kind of conspiracy

cooked up between Putin and pagosian if

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