ANC expected to pronounce on Zuma

Summary

Political analyst Professor L discusses former South African president Jacob Zuma's controversial endorsement of a rival party to the ANC ahead of this year's elections. With Zuma still commanding immense influence and support, Professor L believes firing Zuma now could have dire consequences for the ANC. He argues the ANC should keep Zuma inside for now to minimize damage, rather than making him a martyr. Overall, Professor L provides insightful analysis into the complex dynamics at play as the ANC navigates its relationship with its estranged former leader Zuma.

Takeaways

• 😀 ANC considering whether to expel former president Zuma after he endorsed a rival party
• 😯 Zuma still commands significant influence and support despite controversies
• 🤔 Firing Zuma now could make him a martyr and hurt ANC electorally
• 😕 Keeping Zuma inside ANC for now could limit damage versus firing him
• 🤨 Zuma portraying new party as saving ANC rather than self-interest
• 😠 Zuma feels betrayed by those who supported him in ANC previously
• 😡 Zuma wants revenge against ANC for ditching him after he left power
• 👎 ANC in unenviable position due to own actions enabling Zuma historically
• 😰 Prospect of first ever expulsion of ex-ANC leader faces current leadership
• ⚖️ Zuma's priority seems to be reducing ANC below 51% support, not personal power

Q & A

Why is the ANC cautious about expelling former president Zuma?

The ANC is cautious because Zuma still has significant influence and support. Expelling him could have major consequences and backlash.

What are the risks if the ANC expels Zuma before the elections?

Some ANC members feel that expelling Zuma before the elections could make him into a martyr and rally more support behind him and his new party, causing more damage.

Is there a third option besides expelling or not expelling Zuma?

The ANC could try to condemn Zuma's actions without expelling him in an attempt to clarify things for confused supporters.

How does Zuma justify starting a rival party?

Zuma claims he is starting a new party to save the ANC and the country, which he devoted his life to. He feels betrayed by former allies.

What impact could Zuma have on the ANC in the election?

If Zuma's party can reduce the ANC's majority, such as getting them under 51% of the vote, it would be a significant blow.

Why does the analyst say the ground is ripe for Zuma's message?

After initial progress, the analyst feels the ANC has been in decline, creating dissatisfaction that Zuma can tap into.

Why is Zuma so bitter towards the ANC?

Zuma feels the ANC and his allies betrayed him by removing him as president despite his years of service.

Does Zuma care about being expelled from the ANC?

Likely not, as his goal seems to be reducing the ANC's power rather than retaining membership.

What was Zuma's past role and standing in the ANC?

He was president of South Africa while in the ANC, served the party for years, and was well respected and supported.

What position does this put the ANC leadership in?

In an difficult position with potentially damaging consequences no matter if they expel Zuma or not.

Outlines

00:00

😐 A discussion on plans to make decisions about former president Jacob Zuma today.

Paragraph 1 discusses how the ANC is planning to make a decision regarding former president Jacob Zuma today. This comes after Zuma endorsed a newly founded political party to rival the ANC in upcoming elections. The ANC's NEC met to discuss issues including the 'Zuma question'. There have been calls within the ANC to expel Zuma for this political move.

05:01

😕 Reflections on Zuma's complicated legacy and relationship with the ANC.

Paragraph 2 reflects on Zuma's long political career with the ANC, where he was once lauded but now faces potential expulsion. This would be unprecedented for an ANC leader. Zuma likely feels betrayed by those who previously supported him but later abandoned him. The paragraph notes Zuma's complicated relationship with the ANC now, as he still claims to be acting to save the party despite creating a rival.

Keywords

💡ANC

ANC refers to the African National Congress, which is the governing political party in South Africa. It is considering whether to expel former president Jacob Zuma after he recently endorsed a new rival party. The ANC faces a difficult decision, as firing Zuma could anger his still-significant base of supporters.

💡Jacob Zuma

Jacob Zuma is the former president of South Africa and long-time ANC member. He recently endorsed a new political party that will challenge the ANC in upcoming elections. The ANC is debating whether to expel him for this perceived betrayal.

💡elections

There are national elections happening later this year in South Africa. Zuma's endorsement of a rival party could threaten the ANC's dominance in these elections after over 25 years in power.

💡expel

Some ANC factions want to expel or fire Zuma from the party for endorsing its political rivals. However, doing so carries significant risks of angering Zuma's still-substantial base.

💡support

Zuma still has strong support among certain ANC constituencies and the general public. This lingering support gives him influence and makes the ANC cautious about firing him.

💡consequences

The ANC realizes there could be significant consequences, either within the party or with the wider electorate, for expelling a figure as popular as Zuma.

💡damage

Both options - firing Zuma or keeping him within the ANC - will cause varying degrees of damage. The ANC must choose the path likely to minimize harm.

💡Martyr

Some ANC leaders worry that expelling Zuma would make him a martyr and increase his support even further. This concern stays the ANC's hand.

💡strategy

Zuma seems to be strategically holding back details on his new party's leadership and structure. This may be a calculated strategy to retain ANC supporters' loyalty.

💡power

A driving motivation for Zuma seems to be taking power away from the ANC, his former party that he feels betrayed him. Even winning under 51% would achieve this goal.

Highlights

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Findings add to growing evidence that meditation aids resilience and well-being

Transcripts

ANC says it'll make a decision on former

president Jacob Zuma today it comes

after Zuma endorsed the newly founded

party which is set to rival the

governing party at this year's elections

now thec and EC met over the weekend to

discuss a number of issues including the

Zuma question so to speak there also

been calls by some factions within the

organization for Zuma to be expelled for

this move let's get you some analysis

bring in political analyst Professor L

now who joins us via our telephone line

this Monday morning Prof always great

getting your insights on these issues

thanks for making time does thec DARE

fire its former number

one well if it wants to it can there is

no problem with that I think um why why

they bit bit jary or

circumspect is I think among others is

the fact that he's not your only

ordinary Jo out there um let's not

underestimate the um the influence and

the support that he still has While

others may say you are overstating the

fact but I can also not be oblivious of

the fact that he's coming across like a

tsunami a tide wave that is sweeping the

country and um so far so good for him

and those who are working with him yeah

so I understand their circumspect given

what they see clearly that it's a man

with immense influence and support

absolutely and that that's what

underpinned my question to begin with

right there is going to be a consequence

no matter what thec decides the question

is um how do they navigate those

Troubled Waters um part of the sentiment

that had been shared at least by some

senior members of thec was that if the

governing party moves on this now before

the election they run the risk of Zuma

emerging after this as a Marty do you

share that

sentiment

either way you look at it right if you

fire him now the the consequences are

going to be dire I would rather I would

rather keep him inside for now and cause

minimum damage than the damage would

cause if you were to fire him now I

think it's almost an either or at this

point which one is the worst scenario I

think the better scenario is the one

that keeps him now right um well you

look at it at a later stage at at later

stage it might even be inconsequential

but for now I think the price might be

too high to pay there is going to be an

electoral cause I under anyway given the

support that is apparent but I think

it's better off it might be mortal if

they were to fire him now right um I

wonder if there is a comfortable space

in the middle right we speaking about

this as either on or off whether he's

fired or not but is there a a possible

third option here where thec could be

unequivocal about what um controversy is

and isn't and send out perhaps a clearer

message for the constituency out there

which may very well be confused actually

about where to place the former

president um especially because of the

close associations that MK does have to

the anc's own

history yeah yeah uh uh but look you

know we can play with language here

right either way we please but the

thrust of what is going on right now is

that um you call it Ma or you call it

whatever um the man applied his mind and

we know he's good at his at this game

and he knows how to play it it is the

name that he keeps and he also says by

the way I'm doing what I'm doing as a

pragmatist so little say save my party

I'm doing it to save thec not for

personal gain or interest I think that's

the message and that's where it becomes

blurry and it is deliberate and

intentional on his part to play it that

way and someone said to me ayanda but

said to

me why is he not um disclosing now his

his support his his leader structure I

said it's part of the strategy don't

tell me about the law I understand the

law I understand the law it doesn't

qualify he doesn't want to go to

Parliament he's not that stupid but if

you were to tell the people I'm not

going to be on the ballot paper now it

might impact the support H when it is

done and dusted and there's nothing

wrong by the way for with him being on

the poster in the same way we are told B

is going to be on the poster

but it's not is The Ballot Box that

matters and at that point we you and I

might be told now who are the main

actress sure wow um you know and at some

stage we we're going to have a

discussion I imagine Prof about um the

former president's political career

right um this is someone who's given the

bulk of his life to thec at some stage

was lorded within the governing party

and what a way for all of this to

eventually end you know the prospects of

expulsion something which at least

according to my understanding has never

happened before for any leader of

thec but what the prospect of

expulsion right or being expelled from

the governing party in this way I'm just

trying to think of the kind of Legacy if

you may of thec I mean of of Zuma in the

ANC now someone might say de facto he

has fired himself

the he is still a member of thec does he

care about that hear him out ay hear him

out he says I'm doing what I'm doing to

save my country and to save the party I

served all my life and there are those

that message resonate with and what is

good for him perhaps is that the ground

is gerain for that type of thinking the

people have had it after the first 15

years

we we did well thec did well and it had

a very capable CEO by the name of tabon

Becki but from then it was a downward

spiral and Zuma is angry and bitter

because he says I was betrayed by the

very people who supported me on seven

occasions where it through the mo of no

confidence but only

when Rosa won the elections now as human

beings you know as I do they follow

power wherever it goes they dumped him

they ditched him and I don't think he

has forgiven them and he wants to come

even with them hence I say it doesn't

matter if he can get thec to lose power

to go under 51 I think that is a prize

or the trophy he's aiming at wow sure

unenviable position for the ANC NEC but

many might say it's in a way of their

own doing Professor li de as always

great seeing you and speaking to you

really appreciate your ins on the am

report today Professor T is a political

analyst