Gamma Exposure (GEX) - A Data Driven Guide

Tradytics
5 Sept 202246:13

Summary

TLDRDieses Video bietet eine umfassende Diskussion über Gamma-Exposition in Optionshandel, einschließlich weniger bekannter und populärer Meinungen zur Nutzung von Kamera- und Spiel-Exposition. Der Sprecher erläutert, was Gamma ist, wie man Gamma-Exposition berechnet und warum sie wichtig ist, im Gegensatz zu Delta-Exposition. Es werden auch die Auswirkungen von Gamma auf Aktienpreise und Volatilität diskutiert, sowie die Bedeutung von Marktmakler-Positionierung und dynamischem Hedging. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Analyse von Gamma-Exposition für den S&P 500 (SPY) und wie sie für Trading-Strategien genutzt werden kann, unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von 'illiquiden Zonen', die schnelle Preisbewegungen ermöglichen.

Takeaways

  • 📈 Gamma ist die Veränderung der Delta eines Options-Kontrakts, wenn der Aktienkurs sich bewegt.
  • 🔢 Gamma-Exposition misst die Gesamtgamma einer Aktie, indem man die Gammas der Kontrakte mit dem offenen Interesse multipliziert.
  • 🤔 Delta-Exposition wird oft diskutiert, aber Delta wird sofort ausgeglichen, während Gamma sich im Laufe der Zeit ändert und ist daher wichtiger für Marktteilnehmer.
  • 💡 Die Verwendung von Gamma-Exposition kann Einblicke in Marktbewegungen geben, insbesondere in Bezug auf sogenannte Gamma-Squeezes.
  • 📊 Die Analyse von Gamma-Exposition unterscheidet sich je nach Aktie, da jeder Aktienmarkt seine eigenen Mustern und Reaktionen auf Gamma-Veränderungen hat.
  • 📉 Ein negatives Gamma kann zu einem Momentaneffekt führen, während ein positives Gamma eine Stabilisierung oder Rückführung des Preises bewirken kann.
  • 📈📉 Die Verwendung von Gamma-Exposition zur Vorhersage von Volatilität ist nützlicher als die Annahme, dass sie den Richtungsweg des Marktes vorhersagen kann.
  • 📊 Die Darstellung von Gamma-Exposition in einem Diagramm ist sinnvoll, um zu visualisieren, wann der Markt aufgrund von Gamma-Effekten eine höhere Volatilität erwarten kann.
  • 🤖 Die Erstellung automatisierter Handelsstrategien basierend auf Gamma-Niveaus kann erfolgreich sein, muss jedoch sorgfältig mit anderen Marktfaktoren abgewogen werden.
  • 🕊️ 'Illiquid-Zonen', in denen die Gamma-Exposition gering ist, können als Bereiche interpretiert werden, in denen der Markt weniger von Marktmacher-Hedging beeinflusst wird und daher freier bewegt.
  • 🌐 Die Verwendung von Gamma-Exposition als Handelswerkzeug erfordert eine gründliche Analyse und Verständnis der individuellen Charakteristika des jeweiligen Aktienmarktes.

Q & A

  • Was ist Gamma-Exposition und wie wird sie berechnet?

    -Gamma-Exposition ist eine Maßeinheit für die Veränderung der Delta-Werte eines Options-Kontraktes im Verlauf der Veränderung des zugrunde liegenden Aktienpreises. Sie wird berechnet, indem man die Gamma-Werte der einzelnen Verträge mit dem offenen Interesse multipliziert und diese Werte summiert.

  • Was versteht man unter Delta-Hedging und warum ist es wichtig?

    -Delta-Hedging ist die Praxis, eine Position zu neutralisieren, indem man die Delta-Werte von Optionen und die zugrunde liegenden Aktien in Einklang bringt. Es ist wichtig, um die Preisbewegungen zu begrenzen, die durch das Kaufen oder Verkaufen von Optionen entstehen können.

  • Was ist der Unterschied zwischen statischem und dynamischem Hedging?

    -Statisches Hedging bezieht sich auf die anfängliche Positionierung, um die Preisbewegungen zu neutralisieren. Dynamisches Hedging hingegen erfordert, dass die Positionen der Marktschaffner angepasst werden, wenn sich die Delta- und Gamma-Werte im Laufe der Zeit ändern.

  • Warum ist Gamma-Exposition für Händler wichtiger als Delta-Exposition?

    -Gamma-Exposition ist wichtiger, weil sie die dynamischen Veränderungen der Delta-Werte im Laufe der Zeit widerspiegelt, während Delta-Exposition nur die anfänglichen Verhältnisse abbildet. Marktschaffner müssen sich ständig an die Veränderungen der Gamma-Exposition anpassen, um ihre Positionen zu hedgen.

  • Was passiert, wenn die Gamma-Exposition für eine Aktie negativ ist?

    -Bei einer negativen Gamma-Exposition werden die Delta-Werte der Händler kleiner, wenn der Aktienkurs steigt. Dies kann dazu führen, dass die Händler mehr Aktien kaufen müssen, um ihre Positionen zu hedgen, was den Aktienkurs unterstützt.

  • Was versteht man unter 'Illiquid Zone' und warum sind sie wichtig?

    -Eine 'Illiquid Zone' ist ein Bereich, in dem es wenig Optionsaktivität und somit wenig Gamma-Exposition gibt. Diese Zonen können wichtig sein, weil sie schnelle Preisbewegungen ohne die Einmischung von Marktschaffnern zulassen.

  • Wie kann man Gamma-Expositions-Niveaus interpretieren?

    -Gamma-Expositions-Niveaus zeigen an, wo sich die Gamma-Exposition für bestimmte Kursstufen befindet. Ein hohes positive Niveau kann ein Anziehungseffekt haben, während ein hohes negatives Niveau einen Abstoßungseffekt auslösen kann.

  • Was sind die Vor- und Nachteile des Filters für Gamma-Exposition, die innerhalb von 7, 15 oder 30 Tagen ausfällt?

    -Der Filter kann helfen, sich auf kurzfristige Optionen zu konzentrieren, die stärker beeinflusst werden können. Allerdings ist der Hauptteil der Gamma-Aktivität bereits in kurzfristigen Optionen konzentriert, was den Wert dieses Filters möglicherweise reduziert.

  • Welche Rolle spielen Illiquid-Zonen in der Marktdynamik?

    -Illiquid-Zonen können schnelle Preisbewegungen ohne signifikante Einflussnahme durch Marktschaffner ermöglichen. Dies kann zu einer erhöhten Volatilität führen, da die Preisbewegungen weniger von der Hedging-Aktivität der Händler begrenzt sind.

  • Welche 'unpopuläre Meinung' zum Gamma-Expositions-Niveau gibt es und was bedeutet sie?

    -Die 'unpopuläre Meinung' ist, dass die Gamma-Expositions-Niveaus nicht immer die beabsichtigten Effekte wie Momentan- oder Mean-Reversion-Effekte auslösen. Dies hängt von der relativen Stärke der Gamma-Werte im Vergleich zum durchschnittlichen Gamma-Niveau des Marktes ab.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Einführung in Gamma-Exposition

Der erste Absatz stellt das Thema des Videos vor: Gamma-Exposition. Erklärt wird, was Gamma ist — die Veränderung der Delta eines Options-Kontrakts bei Veränderung des Aktienkurses — und wie man Gamma-Exposition berechnet, indem man Gamma mit dem offener Interesse multipliziert. Der Sprecher teilt seine Erkenntnisse und Meinungen zu dieser Thematik mit, die aus einer Datenanalyse resultieren und in der Hoffnung, dass es Einblicke für Anfänger und Experten enthält, die sie noch nicht kennt.

05:01

📉 Warum wir Gamma und nicht Delta betrachten

In diesem Absatz wird die Bedeutung von Gamma im Vergleich zu Delta erläutert. Delta repräsentiert die Rate der Änderung des Optionspreises in Relation zum zugrunde liegenden Aktienkurs, während Gamma die Veränderung der Deltas selbst beschreibt. Marktmacher delta-hedge ihre Positionen sofort, was bedeutet, dass Delta für sie keine Rolle spielt, sondern sie sich auf die Verwaltung von Gamma konzentrieren müssen. Des Weiteren wird erklärt, dass Delta vollständig gehedgt wird, während Gamma die Veränderungen verursacht, die Marktmacher zu dynamischen Hedges treiben.

10:02

🔢 Gamma-Exposition: Berechnung und Bedeutung

Der Absatz erklärt, wie man die Gamma-Exposition für einen Aktienmarkt berechnet, und warum dies wichtig ist. Es wird betont, dass die einfache Multiplikation von Gamma mit dem offener Interesse, um die Gamma-Exposition zu schätzen, nicht ausreicht. Stattdessen wird ein besserer Ansatz vorgestellt, bei dem die tatsächlichen Kauf- und Verkaufspositionen der Marktmacher berücksichtigt werden, um eine genauere Gamma-Exposition zu ermitteln.

15:02

📊 Analyse von Gamma-Exposition im Zeitverlauf

Dieser Absatz behandelt die Verwendung von Gamma-Expositions-Diagrammen, um den Marktverlauf vorherzusagen. Es wird erläutert, wie die Gamma-Exposition, dargestellt durch Balken, die Veränderung des zukünftigen Aktienpreises im Laufe der Zeit visualisiert. Der Sprecher teilt seine ungewöhnlichen Ansichten über die Auswirkungen von sehr negativer Gamma-Exposition auf den Markt, insbesondere im Hinblick auf liquide Indizes wie den S&P 500 (SNP).

20:03

📉 Verwendung von Gamma-Exposition für Vorhersagen

Der Fokus dieses Abschnitts liegt auf der Anwendung von Gamma-Exposition, um die zukünftige Volatilität des Marktes zu prognostizieren. Es wird erläutert, dass an Tagen mit nahezu null Gamma-Exposition größere Preisbewegungen erwartet werden können, was für Trader eine Gelegenheit darstellt, um größere Plays zu setzen. Der Sprecher betont, dass die Verwendung von Gamma-Exposition, um die Richtung des Marktverlaufs zu prognostizieren, nicht geeignet ist, sondern dass sie vielmehr für die Vorhersage der Volatilität verwendet werden sollte.

25:04

📈 Gamma-Exposition pro Kursschlag

In diesem Absatz wird die Analyse der Gamma-Exposition pro Kursschlag erörtert. Es wird erklärt, wie die Gamma-Exposition für verschiedene Kursschläge interpretiert werden kann, um zu verstehen, wann ein Kurs in Richtung eines bestimmten Kursschlages eine Schwerpunktbewegung oder eine Mean-Reversion-Wirkung erleben könnte. Der Sprecher teilt seine Einsichten, dass die Theorien über die Auswirkungen von positiver und negativer Gamma-Exposition nicht immer für alle Aktien gelten und dass es wichtig ist, die individuellen Profile der Gamma-Exposition für jeden Aktienmarkt zu betrachten.

30:04

🤔 Kritische Betrachtung der Gamma-Exposition

Der Sprecher teilt seine kritische Sichtweise auf die Gamma-Exposition. Er stellt fest, dass die meisten Handelsplattformen und -analysen, die er untersucht hat, keine aussagekräftigen Erkenntnisse liefern, wenn sie die Gamma-Exposition in absoluten Zahlen anstatt in relativen Werten darstellen. Er betont, dass die relative Stärke der Gamma-Exposition im Vergleich zum Durchschnittswert für den jeweiligen Aktienmarkt entscheidend ist, um die tatsächlichen Auswirkungen auf den Marktverlauf zu verstehen.

35:07

🧲 Magneteffekt großer Gamma-Levels

In diesem Absatz wird der sogenannte 'Magneteffekt' von großen negativen Gamma-Levels beschrieben. Der Sprecher erklärt, dass große negative Gamma-Levels dazu führen können, dass der Aktienkurs schnell zu diesen Level迁移动, aber dann Schwierigkeiten hat, sich von ihnen zu lösen, da der negative Gamma-Wert die Preisbewegungen verstärkt. Er betont, dass dies für liquide Indizes wie den S&P 500 (SNP) gilt, aber dass dies für individuelle Aktien anders sein kann.

40:07

🚫 Fehlende Wertigkeit von Gamma-Levels

Der Sprecher diskutiert, warum die Verwendung von Gamma-Levels ohne Kenntnis ihrer relativen Werte nicht sinnvoll ist. Er argumentiert, dass die meisten Handelsplattformen und -analysen, die er gesehen hat, zu irreführenden Schlussfolgerungen führen, wenn sie die Gamma-Exposition in absoluten Zahlen darstellen. Stattdessen sollte die relative Stärke der Gamma-Exposition im Vergleich zum Durchschnittswert für den jeweiligen Aktienmarkt berücksichtigt werden, um die tatsächlichen Auswirkungen auf den Marktverlauf zu verstehen.

45:07

🏁 Schlussfolgerungen und persönliche Überlegungen zum Gebrauch von Gamma-Levels

Der letzte Absatz fasst die wichtigsten Erkenntnisse des Videos zusammen und gibt einen Ausblick auf die persönlichen Überlegungen des Sprechers zum Gebrauch von Gamma-Levels. Er betont, dass die Verwendung von Gamma-Exposition für die Vorhersage von Marktbewegungen nur sinnvoll ist, wenn man die relativen Werte und die individuellen Profile der Gamma-Exposition für jeden Aktienmarkt berücksichtigt. Der Sprecher bedankt sich bei den Zuschauern für ihre Aufmerksamkeit und teilt seine Hoffnung, dass das Video hilfreich war.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Gamma Exposure

Gamma Exposure bezieht sich auf die Veränderung des Deltas eines Options-Kontrakts, wenn der Preis des zugrunde liegenden Aktienpreises sich bewegt. Im Video wird erklärt, dass es ein wichtiger Faktor ist, um Marktbewegungen vorherzusagen oder verschiedene Szenarien zu anticipieren. Das Video diskutiert, wie Gamma Exposure berechnet wird und wie es für das Verständnis von Marktdynamiken genutzt werden kann.

💡Delta

Delta ist ein Maß für die Rate der Änderung des Wertes einer Optionsposition in Richtung des Aktienpreises. Im Kontext des Videos ist Delta relevant, da es die Grundlage für die Delta-Hedging-Strategien der Marktschaffenden ist, die im weiteren Verlauf durch Gamma beeinflusst wird.

💡Options-Kontrakt

Ein Options-Kontrakt ist ein Finanzinstrument, das den Käufer das Recht, aber nicht die Pflicht, einen Aktienbesitz innerhalb eines bestimmten Zeitraums zu einem vorab festgelegten Preis zu erwerben oder zu verkaufen, gibt. Im Video werden Options-Kontrakte als zentrale Elemente für die Verständigung von Gamma Exposure diskutiert.

💡Marktmakler

Marktmakler sind Finanzinstitute, die für die Liquidität von Finanzmärkten sorgen, indem sie Börsenaufträge von Investoren entgegennehmen und ausführen. Im Video wird erläutert, wie Marktmakler durch den Verkauf von Options-Kontrakten, die von Investoren gekauft werden, in eine positionelle Ausrichtung geraten und diese durch Delta-Hedging ausgleichen.

💡Delta-Hedging

Delta-Hedging ist eine Strategie, die von Marktschaffenden verwendet wird, um die Preisbewegungen von Optionen, die sie verkaufen, zu kompensieren, indem sie die zugrunde liegenden Aktien entsprechend kaufen oder verkaufen. Im Video wird Delta-Hedging als grundlegender Aspekt der Marktmaklerstrategie beschrieben.

💡Dynamisches Hedging

Dynamisches Hedging bezieht sich auf die Anpassung der Positionen von Marktschaffenden, um den Veränderungen des Deltas und Gammas Rechnung zu tragen. Im Video wird betont, dass dynamisches Hedging notwendig ist, um die sich ständig ändernden Marktbedingungen zu berücksichtigen.

💡Illiquiditätszone

Illiquiditätszonen sind Bereiche, in denen es weniger Options-Kontrakte gibt und somit weniger Aktivität der Marktschaffenden. Im Video wird argumentiert, dass Illiquiditätszonen die Preisbewegungen weniger beeinflussen als Bereiche mit hohem Gamma Exposure.

💡Momentum-Effekt

Ein Momentum-Effekt tritt auf, wenn der Aktienkurs in die Richtung einer hohen Konzentration von Gamma Exposure bewegt und dadurch die Deltas der Marktschaffenden sich schnell ändern. Im Video wird erläutert, dass negative Gamma Exposure einen solchen Effekt auslösen kann, was zu schnellen Preisbewegungen führen kann.

💡Mean-Reversion

Mean-Reversion ist ein Konzept, das besagt, dass ein Wert, der sich von seinem langfristigen Durchschnitt entfernt, tendenziell in Richtung dieses Durchschnitts zurückkehren wird. Im Video wird dies in Bezug auf positive Gamma Exposure diskutiert, was eine Annäherung des Aktienpreises an die entsprechenden Optionen impliziert.

💡Volatilität

Volatilität ist eine Maßzahl für die Preisschwankungen eines Finanzinstruments. Im Video wird betont, dass Tage mit hohem Gamma Exposure oft auch Tage mit hoher Volatilität sind, was für Trader wichtig ist, um ihre Risiken zu managen und potenzielle Gewinne zu erzielen.

💡Streikbasierte Gamma Exposure

Streikbasierte Gamma Exposure bezieht sich auf die Analyse von Gamma Exposure auf einzelnen Optionen-Strike-Preisen. Im Video wird erläutert, wie diese Analyse dazu verwendet werden kann, zu verstehen, wie sich der Preis eines Aktiens an bestimmten Strike-Preisen verhält, basierend auf der Konzentration von Gamma Exposure.

Highlights

Der Sprecher ist aufgeregt über das Thema Gamma-Exposition und hat sowohl populäre als auch unpopuläre Meinungen darüber, wie man sie effektiv nutzen kann.

Gamma ist definiert als die Veränderung der Delta eines Options-Kontrakts, wenn der Aktienkurs sich bewegt.

Gamma-Exposition misst, wie viel Einfluss die Gamma eines Vertrags auf den Aktienkurs hat, indem man die Gamma mit dem offener Interesse multipliziert.

Der Sprecher erklärt, warum man bei Optionshandel meist über Gamma und nicht über Delta spricht, da Delta vollständig gehedgt wird.

Es wird auf die Bedeutung von Marktmaklern und ihre Positionierung bei Call- und Put-Kauf eingegangen.

Die Vorstellung von dynamischem Hedging wird erläutert, um die Auswirkungen von Gamma-Veränderungen zu managen.

Der Sprecher diskutiert die Unterschiede zwischen der Berechnung von Gamma-Exposition bei verschiedenen Plattformen und Methoden.

Es wird betont, dass die Gamma-Exposition für verschiedene Aktien unterschiedliche Muster zeigt und individuell analysiert werden muss.

Der Einfluss von Gamma-Exposition auf die Volatilität und Preise von Aktienindex-Optionen wie dem S&P 500 wird diskutiert.

Es wird erklärt, dass eine nahezu Null-Gamma-Exposition zu einer erhöhten Volatilität führen kann.

Der Sprecher teilt seine ungewöhnlichen Ansichten über die Auswirkungen von sehr negativer Gamma-Exposition auf den Markt.

Es wird auf die Bedeutung der relativen Werte von Gamma-Exposition verwiesen, anstatt nur absolute Werte zu betrachten.

Der Begriff 'Illiquiditätszonen' wird eingeführt, um Bereiche zu beschreiben, in denen die Gamma-Exposition gering ist und der Markt schneller reagieren kann.

Es wird eine Diskussion über die Anwendung von Gamma-Exposition-Niveaus für den Handel mit Aktien wie dem S&P 500 (SPY) geführt.

Der Sprecher stellt seine Meinung dar, dass bestimmte Marktbewegungen nicht durch Gamma-Exposition verursacht wurden, sondern möglicherweise durch andere Faktoren.

Es werden Methoden zur Automatisierung von Handelsstrategien basierend auf Gamma-Exposition-Niveaus vorgestellt.

Der Sprecher warnt vor der Fehlinterpretation von Gamma-Exposition-Chart, die ohne relativen Bezug angegeben sind.

Es wird ein Fazit gezogen, und der Sprecher betont die Komplexität des Marktes und die Notwendigkeit, individuelle Analysen durchzuführen.

Transcripts

play00:02

hey everyone today we are going to talk

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about gamma exposure i'm very excited

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for this video because i have some

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unpopular and some popular opinions on

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how to actually use camera and game

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exposure to actually make plays earn

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some money and profits do all kinds of

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uh stuff with critics with our tools and

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just sort of in general as well so let's

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dive into all of this stuff right away

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this video is sort of both for beginners

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and for experts because there are some

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insights that

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i would hope you have not heard anywhere

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else they're coming from all the data

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analysis that we have done and our our

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game exposure charts are slightly

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different as well uh but without further

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ado uh

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let's start so

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we are going to talk about what gamma is

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so gamma is the

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change in the delta of an options

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contact as the underlying stock price

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moves so let's assume delta is 0.5 of an

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options contract and gamma is 0.1 if the

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stock price goes from 400 to 401 delta

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is going to increase from 0.5 to 0.6

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because gamma was 0.1 now when delta

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increases gamma increases as well and

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let's say now gamma becomes 0.15

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now if the price increases from 401 to

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402 delta is going to go from 0.6 to

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0.75 so it's a very abstract definition

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a really good way that i think about

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gamma is gamma is a speed

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or momentum effect so as price is

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increasing gamma since gamma keeps

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increasing and it also keeps increasing

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the delta ah this can cause a very sort

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of momentum effect which is what we saw

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with things like uh with things like

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gamestop amc last year

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and so this this causes these gamma

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squeezes because it's it's it's it

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causes exponential move since it's it's

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increasing and then it it's also

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increasing the delta as well so that's

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what gamma is what is gamma exposure so

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gamma exposure you just take in gamma

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and for a contract you multiply it with

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the open interest for that contract

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which would be all the contacts that are

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held by

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customers right now and that gives you

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the gamma and then you just sum that

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gives you the gamma exposure for each

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con for one contract then you just sum

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that up for all contacts and that gives

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you

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the gamma exposure for the entire stock

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that is what you are seeing right here

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so gamma means scam exposure and these

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each bar is a normalized value of the

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gamma over the last year

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so now we know about gamma and gamma

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exposure

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but why are we talking about gamma x per

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year the the very first streak that

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everyone knows when they start trading

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options is delta exposure or delta why

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don't we talk about delta exposure this

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is a very important concept that not

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many beginners know

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so

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now we need to talk about a dealer

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positioning and delta hatching so

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anytime you buy a call contract and i'll

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just start with the call contact because

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it's easy to explain anytime let's

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assume you you buy a call contact

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someone has to provide you liquidity and

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someone has to sell you that call

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contract

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and that seller or that liquidity

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provider here is a market maker

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so you are buying a call the market

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maker is going to sell you a call

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selling a call is a bearish position and

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market makers never want to have a

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direction in the market they are there

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to provide you liquidity and that's all

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they are going to profit off of the bid

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ask spread that's all that's their main

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job so they don't really want to take a

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direction but they just had to take one

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because you were buying a call and they

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had to sell you a call now in order to

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hedge that

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they are going to look at the delta of

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your call let's say it's 0.5

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and they are going to multiply it with

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100 because each option is again and

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gives you the ability to sort of trade

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100 contracts uh 100 shares not

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contracts they're going to take in the

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delta of your contract and they're going

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to multiply it with 100 that's 50. so

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whatever position now that they had to

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take because you wanted to buy a call

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they're going to go against that

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position so if they're selling you a

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call and that means they're bearish

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they're going to buy 50 shares of that

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particular stock that you are trading in

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options for so let's say for snp you buy

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a 400 dollar call

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and they're going to sell you that 400

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call and then they're going to they're

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going to buy 50 shares of snp now they

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are delta hedged because the delta of

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that contact is fully hedged so now if

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the price moves up one dollar let's say

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uh

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the

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if the price moves up one dollar and

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delta goes from 0.5 to 0.6

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there though the shares that they bought

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are also going to go up but the call

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that they sold is going to go down in

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value so the shares that they have

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bought and the call that they have sold

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are going to offset profits and that's

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what delta hedging is but hopefully you

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will be able to realize by now that

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delta hedging alone is not enough

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because we have gamma we just talked

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about it it is the change in delta so

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delta is always changing it's not static

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hedging as gamma and delta changes they

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have to change the underlying shares

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that they just bought they have to

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either buy more shares if delta keeps

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increasing and then gamma keeps

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increasing as well if delta decreases

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then they have to short those or sell

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those or cover those uh

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or sell those shares not cover those

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here they have to sell the shares that

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they just bought

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so then that's what dynamic hedging is

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and so anytime you buy a contract

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dealers are so sophisticated these days

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that they are

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right away delta hedging that contract

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so the delta part of it gets removed

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immediately

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and that is why we never talk about

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delta gamma is the part that keeps

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changing

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and gamma is the part that they really

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need to care about apart from banner and

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charm flows which we'll talk about in

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some other video

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but delta isn't something that they're

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they're worried about they're worried

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about gamma and gamma exposure is

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where this sort of this whole thing of

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trying to understand what gamma exposure

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is

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and then trying to use it to predict

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market moves or actually just sort of

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anticipate different kinds of scenarios

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so i just wanted to discuss why we don't

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talk about delta because when i started

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i did not know why people were just

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talking about gamma and not delta delta

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is always

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fully hedged it's a gamma that causes

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those dealers to then start to

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dynamically hedge and that's where we

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can get some alpha from

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so

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now that we know about

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why delta does not matter let's talk

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about gamma exposure again

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so we talked about how to calculate

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gamma expo here you take in the gamma

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multiplied with the open interest then

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sum sum sum of everything

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that's

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not really good that's one way of

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calculating gamma square but it's not

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good

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so now that we know uh now that we are

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saying it's not good let's talk about

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why so now we are going to talk about

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long

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and short gammaxx for you what we are

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seeing here

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is negative gamma which means short

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gamma and this is a chart for dealer

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positioning so these are positions for

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dealers so we are seeing here that for

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snp dealers have been short gamma over

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the last one here

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now what does short versus long gamma

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means anytime you are buying a contract

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you are long gamma and anytime you are

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selling a contract you are shortcut so

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if dealers are short gamma since they

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are taking the opposite trades of us

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that means that customers have been

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buying both calls and puts or just calls

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or just puts but they have been buying

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contracts because then they have a

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positive camera and then dealers have

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negative camera

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what if dealers had positive camera what

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if dealers have negative gamma how does

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that affect the stock price or

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volatility or things like that

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so when dealers have positive gamma

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let's talk about that example first

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because there are obviously some days

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where dealers had positive gamma

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exposure when dealers have positive

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gamma or positive gamma exposure

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then as the price goes up

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since gamma is the change in delta

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as the price goes up one dollar

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since gamma is positive dealer gamma is

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positive the deltas of the dealers are

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going to increase by the amount that gx

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is giving us

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and so when the deltas increase

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remember they want to state delta has

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and this is where dynamic hedging kicks

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in they want to short in order to stay

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delta hedged so when price goes up they

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are actually required to short if they

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are positive camera when price goes down

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their deltas decrease

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because gamma is positive

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their deltas decrease they have to buy

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back

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their short positions and that causes

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the price to go up so positive gamma can

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cause a pinning effect or can cause a

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stabilizing force in the market because

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whatever the price is doing dealers have

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to do the opposite of that and that can

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have pin a price

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what happens if they are negative gamma

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as we are seeing in this screenshot here

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if they are negative gamma then as price

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goes up since we have negative gamma

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price going up one dollar is going to

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cause the deltas to decrease not

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increase now because we are in a

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negative gamma so dealers deltas are

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going to actually decrease so as price

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goes up

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dealer deltas decrease dealers deltas

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decrease and they are going to have to

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buy more in order to stay hedged

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and when that happens they are actually

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supporting the price if price goes up

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dealers are also buying

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because their deltas are further

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uh

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decreasing

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and if price goes down their deltas are

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increasing so they're going to short so

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then price is going down they're

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shorting as well so that can cause a

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momentum effect so these are some fairly

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uh non-concepts that you might have read

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somewhere else and i just wanted to

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discuss them before we go into slightly

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more involved topics so now i believe

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you know about what a gamma is what

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gamma exposure is how do we calculate it

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uh what what's delta what's the role of

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delta what's the static hedging then

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what's dynamic hedging

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now we are going to talk about the pros

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and cons of how some people how some

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products or how some platforms calculate

play09:52

gammaxx per year versus how we calculate

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it

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so most of the time what people do is

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they take in the gamma of a contract and

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multiply it with the open interest

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and then they assume that all calls are

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sold and all puts are bought which means

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uh deal for dealers the calls are going

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to give them positive again my inputs

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are going to give them negative gamma

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because customers are selling calls so

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customers are short gamma dealers long

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gamers and customers are buying put so

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the customer is a long game on the put

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side delays are short gamma on the put

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side

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that's a very very

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fairly

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basic assumption and i hope you

play10:31

recognize that

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there is definitely not a case where

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all calls are sold sold all puts are

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bought and the reason this sort of

play10:39

theory arrived was because most

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institutions uh they are long snp shares

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so in order to hedge that they can do

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two two things in order to hatch that or

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an extra yield they can do two things in

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order to hatch that they can buy puts in

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order to earn some extra yield they can

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sell calls so that's where this theory

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of like people are always selling calls

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or institutions are always selling calls

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buying puts i came from it's valued to

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some extent but it's not

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true especially for individual stocks

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and even for

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indices as well

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so what we do

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is we have something called a dealer

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open interest where we look at each

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position and we look at whether that

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position was actually bought or sold

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so let's say there are 500 the open

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interest for a contract is 500 and then

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we actually go ahead look at all the

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individual trades that amounted to a 500

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open interest remember open interest is

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just the number of open contracts it

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could be contracts that were bought to

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open for that which sold that were sold

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to open

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so

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we go into individual trade and then we

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look at whether

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whether trades were bought positions or

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sold positions then we sum them up and

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the net sort of value that we get is the

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true dealer open interest or customer

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open interest and then based on that we

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calculate our gamma exposures urban

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exposures and things like that

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so that's a slightly better way we

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believe of uh calculating mx power there

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are more sophisticated ways of actually

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using implied volatility surfaces that's

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something that we're working on right

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now but we don't have in the platform i

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believe the way we look at the bid ask

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and sort of whether the trade was a

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board position or a sold position that

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still works pretty well it's much better

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than the very simple assumption of all

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calls being sold all puts being bought

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and so that's what we have but i think i

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have talked enough

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about

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these

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sort of concepts and i haven't really

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talked about how do you actually use

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gamma gammaxx per year from

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our platform and i would hope most

play12:37

people are here for that

play12:39

so now let's actually go to

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the jacks or the game explorer so we are

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going to talk about the total checks

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first and then we are going to talk

play12:48

about the strike based so this is the

play12:49

total jax

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for s and p

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and then on the on the x axis we have

play12:55

the

play12:56

on the x axis we have normalized x which

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is the value of checks divided by the

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max value of checks over the last one

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year so this just gives us a range of

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one to minus one and then we have on the

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y axis

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the future price change of one day two

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day three day whatever parameter you

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have set here so right now we are

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looking at

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what was the value of jax

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and what happened the next day

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you can see here that if checks is

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extremely negative then price is

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actually being pinned

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and this is where

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i have such an unpopular opinion

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most of the papers or the blogs or the

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videos that you see are going to tell

play13:37

you that gamma exposure when it is very

play13:39

negative and it makes logical sense that

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when it is very negative it should cause

play13:44

some momentum effects

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but when you go and look at the data for

play13:48

ascent p we are just talking about spy

play13:51

for spx

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all the things that we talk about that

play13:55

we talked about actually hold true very

play13:57

negative gamma does give you more

play13:59

volatility but

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snp or spy is an index as well it's a

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very liquid index

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so many people trade options in snp

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but i have never read a paper or a i've

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watched a video or read a blog post that

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actually talks about the fact that gamma

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exposure for different stocks has very

play14:18

different profiles very different

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volatility and movement profiles so for

play14:22

snp

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anytime we have very negative gamma we

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are not really getting momentum place

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what we are getting is a very pinning a

play14:31

very good pinning effect in the market

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anytime we have very low gamma gamma

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close to zero gamma exposure close to

play14:39

zero that's where we are getting the big

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moves again each dot is a percentage

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change the next day so it's a future

play14:47

price change what happened the next day

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objects today was 0 or minus 0.5 or

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minus 1.0 and you can see how this is

play14:54

like fanning out as we go towards zero

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gamma or a very very slightly positive

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gamma and this is causing more

play15:02

volatility

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and

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i spent a lot of time just making sure

play15:07

that this graph was valid and i forgot

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making a mistake and i am not because

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when you actually look at spx if you can

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just go to spx i won't do that because

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that'll take a lot of time but you you

play15:16

can just go to spxa and look at the game

play15:19

exposure their gamma exposure does as

play15:21

fear in when we are in negative games

play15:24

for your territories we have more

play15:25

volatility but for snp this is what we

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mostly trade we don't trade spx for snp

play15:31

the profile is slightly different

play15:34

and that's where this whole concept of

play15:36

you need to look at the data for a for

play15:39

each stock

play15:40

before you begin to internalize or learn

play15:43

patterns for that stock

play15:46

there is no the markets are so complex

play15:48

these days that there is no single piece

play15:50

of information that you can learn and

play15:52

just

play15:53

extrapolate it to every single stock out

play15:56

there that just does not work

play15:58

and that's the first that's the first

play16:00

unpopular opinion each stock has an

play16:03

individual gammaxx for your profile has

play16:05

an individual correlation to how price

play16:08

moves with different gammaxx for your

play16:09

levels

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and this tells us that as a gamma

play16:13

exposure becomes gamma experience for s

play16:15

and p becomes

play16:16

close to zero we get more volatility

play16:19

that's a very very powerful concept

play16:21

because more volatility gives us greater

play16:24

reward and greater risk so

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in the days when you have more

play16:27

volatility you want to be ready you want

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to be making big plays like you want to

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be on top of your game and you want to

play16:33

also contain your risk but in days where

play16:36

volatility is like very low or the

play16:38

change in the price is going to be very

play16:40

low which is what we are calling

play16:41

volatility here

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you can probably just stay out of the

play16:44

market and just expect some job in the

play16:46

market i hope you can realize that as if

play16:50

you can predict that if you can predict

play16:52

how much price is going to move tomorrow

play16:54

that is a very very powerful thing for

play16:56

both options traders and for any other

play16:57

kind of trader as well

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so this chart we also have a bar chart

play17:01

distribution based on this chart so the

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higher the bars the more volatility we

play17:06

are expecting the next day if you want

play17:08

to look at the how does uh price changes

play17:11

in five days uh

play17:13

very similar correlations where as we

play17:16

move towards zero gamma price starts to

play17:18

change quite a lot the volatility

play17:20

increases

play17:22

and then we have this price distribution

play17:23

we have discussed that in length in our

play17:25

dealer positioning video but

play17:27

we have talked about now a total gamma

play17:29

exposure and how does it relate to price

play17:32

movements

play17:33

okay

play17:34

let's actually look at spx

play17:37

we just added data for spx uh a couple

play17:40

of weeks ago so

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the the dashboard is somewhat missing

play17:44

which is why

play17:45

i did not want to sort of go into the

play17:47

details here but still let's talk about

play17:50

it so let's go to gamma so here you can

play17:52

see that

play17:54

as we move towards positive gamma we are

play17:57

squeezed a lot and if you zoom this

play18:00

chart out you can't do that here but i

play18:02

did it on my laptop you can see that

play18:04

these bars are much higher than these

play18:07

parts so in reality

play18:09

what we are seeing is

play18:11

volatility increases a lot as we do move

play18:15

towards the negative gammaxx per year

play18:16

for dealers level which makes sense

play18:19

which we talked about

play18:20

but i just want to emphasize that since

play18:22

markets are so complex and we have no

play18:25

idea what's the relationship

play18:28

between spx options and spy options and

play18:30

how are people

play18:31

sort of trading these inter relatedly so

play18:35

there could be a more logical

play18:36

explanation but you have the data just

play18:39

look at it

play18:40

and know that there are certain

play18:42

differences in and different stocks

play18:44

different pairs of stickers different

play18:46

indices and different things like that

play18:48

so for spx most of what you read online

play18:51

is true but for other stocks even for

play18:54

spy it is not true so let's go back to

play18:57

spy now

play18:58

okay so it's a really nice chart because

play19:00

it helps us predict volatility that spx

play19:03

chart was a bit cluttered as you just

play19:05

saw so i often use spy to predict how

play19:08

volatile the next is going to be

play19:10

now that we

play19:12

have an anticipation of volatility i

play19:14

want to mention that when you are

play19:16

looking at total gx

play19:18

do not use it do not use the total gamma

play19:21

exposure to predict the direction of the

play19:24

move

play19:25

that is where a lot of people make sort

play19:27

of try to use this they try to use this

play19:30

price distribution chart

play19:32

you cannot use the price distribution

play19:34

chart when the correlation between the

play19:36

next day's move and the gx is like 0.012

play19:40

that's like 0 so that's telling you that

play19:42

there is no predictive power in the

play19:45

direction in the directional prediction

play19:48

for jacks but there is a lot of

play19:50

predictive power for volatility

play19:51

prediction which is why you are seeing

play19:53

this nice fanning out pattern as we go

play19:55

to right the graph starts to expand

play19:58

that's total gx

play20:01

and that gives you a very good estimate

play20:03

of future volatility that's again very

play20:05

useful now let's talk about

play20:08

a gamma exposure by each strike because

play20:10

that's what that's like the hot thing

play20:12

these days and a lot of people talk

play20:13

about it i've spent the last four weeks

play20:16

just dealing with gammaxx for your

play20:18

levels now let's go to them

play20:21

this at the game exposure level then

play20:22

then the white line is simply a sum of

play20:24

each level in a cumulative way so i'm

play20:26

going to hide it by clicking here

play20:28

this is what you are seeing

play20:30

the game exposure levels are what you

play20:32

are seeing right now the white the white

play20:34

bars are where we are at right now the

play20:36

green bars are where gamma exposure is

play20:38

positive red bars is where gamma

play20:40

exposure is negative and we have talked

play20:42

about what happens when gamma exposure

play20:43

is negative and what happens when gamma

play20:45

exposure is positive negative causes

play20:47

momentum positive causes

play20:49

mean reversion

play20:51

now

play20:52

the very first thing that we saw with

play20:54

snp was

play20:56

our sort of logical explanation on what

play20:58

happens with positive and negative gamma

play21:01

did not hold true for spy it held true

play21:04

for

play21:05

spx

play21:07

but

play21:08

just for the sake of discussion here

play21:09

because i think like this is so

play21:10

important to discuss on like different

play21:12

stocks having different profiles let's

play21:14

still stick with this chart obviously i

play21:16

think you might be wanting me to go to

play21:19

spx chart we can probably do another

play21:21

video for that just sort of analyzing

play21:23

the game exposure levels for that but

play21:25

but i want to stick with spy because

play21:26

i've spent so much time with this

play21:29

and

play21:30

okay we have the positive levels we have

play21:32

the negative level and these are just

play21:34

based on uh you find the open interest

play21:36

in a way that we calculate open interest

play21:38

then just multiply uh it with gamma for

play21:40

each strike and just sum it up across

play21:42

all contracts for that strike and this

play21:44

chart is what we're getting but this

play21:46

chart is looking very very different

play21:47

from the charts that you might see on

play21:49

other platforms or online or somewhere

play21:51

else because

play21:52

this chart is all squished down to these

play21:55

small bars why is there so much empty

play21:58

space here

play21:59

now let me go through some

play22:01

very unpopular but data-driven insights

play22:04

so most people say that when we have

play22:06

negative gamma as price moves towards it

play22:09

it causes these momentum effects so if

play22:12

if there is very large negative gamma

play22:14

let's assume at 392 then as price let's

play22:17

say starts to move down from 40 400 to

play22:21

399 to 398 it might quickly move towards

play22:24

the 392 because again it's negative

play22:26

gamma so as price is moving towards it

play22:29

that gamma and the deltas are going to

play22:32

increase or decrease based on what the

play22:34

color is uh i are going to actually sort

play22:36

of it's going to cause a momentum effect

play22:38

because it's negative gamma and dealers

play22:40

are going to support whatever move is

play22:42

happening

play22:43

and we have discussed that

play22:45

and

play22:46

uh one thing that i wanted to discuss

play22:47

was like this is how gamma looks so as

play22:49

we go close to those bars as we go close

play22:53

to at the money or in the money these

play22:55

gammas are going to like have start

play22:58

going to a peak so this is a bell shaped

play23:00

curve

play23:01

which means once we reach at that bar

play23:03

gamma is maximum but once we reach once

play23:06

we reach like a head or

play23:09

behind it like any time we are ahead or

play23:10

behind that bar gamma is gamma starts to

play23:13

decrease so at that bar is where gamma

play23:15

is going to be maximum but as we are

play23:17

let's let's assume this is a very big

play23:19

bar red bar it's going down as we are

play23:22

reaching towards that bar you can see

play23:24

how gamma keeps increasing increasing

play23:26

increasing and if you're in a negative

play23:27

gamma regime then that negative gamma

play23:30

keeps increasing increasing increasing

play23:32

and that can cause that can cause those

play23:33

deltas to change immensely or massively

play23:36

and that can cause these momentum

play23:38

effects but once we reach that

play23:39

particular strike that's where

play23:43

now the gamma is maximum so there is no

play23:45

more momentum effect

play23:47

so when i started learning about gamma

play23:49

exposure levels i always thought that

play23:50

once we reach these negative gamma

play23:53

strikes that's where the momentum is

play23:55

going to start that's not true at all

play23:58

once we are reaching towards these

play24:00

negative gamma strikes

play24:02

is where uh

play24:04

we are going to have some momentum

play24:05

effects once we reach this green because

play24:08

there is positive gamma on those strikes

play24:10

then we are going to start to like

play24:12

price is going to start to do the

play24:14

opposite mm's are going market makers

play24:17

are going to start to do the opposite of

play24:18

what price is doing so it can quickly

play24:20

repel the price or cause some pinning

play24:22

effect

play24:24

that's that's the theory behind trying

play24:26

to choose a gammaxx for your levels and

play24:29

anytime you see red you are expecting

play24:31

the price to have some momentum when

play24:33

it's going towards those red levels

play24:34

anytime you see a positive level then

play24:36

you are expecting the price

play24:38

to start to at least stop or go towards

play24:41

the opposite direction as it starts

play24:43

reaching those green bars

play24:45

we have a really good approximate we

play24:47

have a really good variation of this

play24:48

which we call

play24:50

spot jets where

play24:51

any time so all the negative gamma

play24:54

levels above the current stock price are

play24:56

converted to positive gamma levels or or

play24:59

the positives are converted to negative

play25:01

so we flip the gamma levels above the

play25:03

current price

play25:05

so that if there is a gamma level that

play25:07

if there is a negative gamma level above

play25:09

the current price it becomes green and

play25:12

it looks like it can cause a momentum

play25:14

effect or it can cause a bullish move

play25:17

so these all of these green levels were

play25:20

actually red as you can see but these

play25:22

red levels if we moved towards them were

play25:24

going to cause a momentum effect so we

play25:26

just turned them like we just flipped

play25:28

them and now they they have become green

play25:30

because they were above the current

play25:32

price anything that's below the current

play25:34

stock price so we'll still keep acting

play25:36

as it is if there is a red level below

play25:38

the current price then again it's a

play25:40

negative level it can cause momentum

play25:42

effects but if a red level is above the

play25:44

current stock price it can cause a

play25:46

bullish momentum effect and that's what

play25:48

we color green instead of red on the

play25:51

normal gx chart and the green ones are

play25:53

going to cause some resistance so we

play25:55

turn them we flip them as well and that

play25:56

can cause some resistance now so it just

play25:59

makes reading gamma exposure very easy

play26:02

okay

play26:04

we have talked about the basic concepts

play26:05

of how to analyze these bars and like

play26:08

that's all you need to know but

play26:11

i was thinking like if

play26:13

this is that easy then why not build

play26:15

some automated strategies

play26:17

anytime we have let's say a red bar and

play26:19

we start going towards it let's

play26:22

uh just like create a momentum play or

play26:24

create sort of a moving average or trend

play26:27

uh strategy and then anytime you reach a

play26:29

green bar let's stop let's exit and that

play26:32

should work well that does work well but

play26:34

there were so many caveats that i

play26:36

learned over the last four weeks and we

play26:37

are going to discuss those today so

play26:40

one

play26:40

the very first lesson that i learned was

play26:43

all the charts that you see that you saw

play26:46

online on tradition and that you still

play26:48

see online on many other platforms and

play26:50

i'm not really honestly trying to knock

play26:51

down any other platform

play26:53

i'm just trying to

play26:55

convey what i learned and how it was so

play26:57

important anytime you see a game

play27:00

exposure chart like the one that you're

play27:02

seeing right now let's go to the normal

play27:04

game explorer

play27:05

these charts are meaningless

play27:08

if they are not drawn in a relative term

play27:12

let me explain why or let me explain

play27:14

what does what do i mean so let's assume

play27:17

this red bar

play27:19

was a gamma exposure of minus 200

play27:22

million in notional value

play27:24

let's assume that meant any time price

play27:27

went up one dollars market makers had to

play27:31

invest 200 million dollars in buying snp

play27:35

shares

play27:37

okay uh that's useful like we know that

play27:40

marketing 200 million dollars is a lot

play27:41

of money so market makers will support

play27:43

us price will have a momentum effect

play27:46

but how do you know 200

play27:48

million dollars is a lot of money you

play27:50

don't you like if you are a retail

play27:52

trader then honestly you you don't

play27:54

really know that

play27:55

because for spx

play27:57

even if there is like

play27:59

20 billion dollar gamma level it will

play28:02

still not be able to move the price more

play28:04

than like 0.5 or even like a one percent

play28:08

and these are just some sort of

play28:10

statistics that i've seen in the data

play28:12

like there is no logical explanation but

play28:14

the point of telling you this is like

play28:16

even if these gamma levels are huge

play28:19

it is very hard to cause big moves that

play28:23

happens with individual stocks but let's

play28:25

just say for the sake of

play28:26

snp it is very hard for game stop and

play28:30

individual stocks sure it happens

play28:31

sometimes and gamma can cause squeezes

play28:33

in both ways up and down so that's a

play28:36

topic for another time but let's just

play28:38

talk about s p so now you don't really

play28:41

know what 200 million dollars for snp

play28:44

and 500 million dollars and 100 million

play28:46

dollars in game exposure which is again

play28:48

gamma multiplied by 100 multiplied by

play28:50

the open interest just sum it up that's

play28:52

the gamma exposure we multiply it with

play28:54

sort of stock price and then

play28:56

zero point

play28:58

multiplied by stock price that

play29:00

calculation is done in order to like uh

play29:02

predict how much gamma is going to how

play29:04

how much dealers are going to

play29:06

short or go long

play29:08

in dollar value if price moves up let's

play29:10

say one person

play29:12

those are just some some details that

play29:14

you can you just ignore what i said in

play29:16

the last one minute if you did not

play29:18

understand it but the point is like it

play29:20

is useless if you're looking at a gamma

play29:22

exposure chart

play29:24

and it is not in relative terms it's

play29:26

just in plain terms like with hey here

play29:28

is minus 100 million

play29:30

dollars gamma exposure here is 500

play29:32

million dollars gamma exposure in

play29:33

positive negative whatever

play29:35

that is not useful and

play29:39

again i'm not trying to knock down

play29:41

anything else i'm just trying to tell

play29:43

you that i've done so many experiments

play29:45

and looking at these absolute camera

play29:48

levels looking at these levels in

play29:50

absolute terms of what their value is

play29:53

is not meaningful

play29:55

okay why is that because any time

play29:58

let's say 100 million

play30:00

let's say there is a level that's for

play30:02

blitz that has a value of 100 million in

play30:04

gamma x per year

play30:05

let's say the average value of

play30:09

a level for the same stock let's say for

play30:11

snp over the last two months

play30:13

has been 600 million dollars now

play30:16

if you are not looking at those values

play30:18

every single day

play30:20

you would have no idea that the average

play30:22

value of each bar here

play30:24

was 600 million dollars

play30:27

and you were just you would just look at

play30:28

that 100 million and if at that day that

play30:31

100 million was the highest level

play30:34

then you would just think that hey this

play30:35

is the big level price will mean revert

play30:38

from here because this is the big green

play30:39

level

play30:40

that's absolutely useless because that

play30:42

is 100

play30:44

versus the 600 average 600 million

play30:47

average levels that we typically get so

play30:50

that level is so small for that

play30:52

particular stock for snp here that it is

play30:55

not going to cause anything like that

play30:57

level is completely meaningless and i

play30:59

cannot emphasize this enough

play31:02

as

play31:03

when the relative value of these levels

play31:06

is small

play31:07

these levels are completely meaningless

play31:10

it's when the relative value the

play31:12

relative value being the value of this

play31:14

the total value of

play31:15

the jacks of this level or of this bar

play31:19

for this particular strike

play31:20

is greater than the main average value

play31:23

of let's say the total checks that we

play31:25

get for s and p or for these bars

play31:28

if it's greater than the mean if it's

play31:30

like let's say

play31:32

like 50 percent greater like two times

play31:34

greater or even just greater than the

play31:36

main that's where like those are the

play31:38

bars that we need to take care about

play31:41

and so all of these bars that we're

play31:42

seeing here are sitting at like 0.1 to

play31:45

minus 0.1 which is like the value of the

play31:48

bar divided by the total

play31:50

average checks for snp

play31:52

this is very very small

play31:54

and now here is where like i see a lot

play31:57

of people doing like going to misleading

play32:00

conclusions so

play32:02

now that we know that these these like

play32:04

the chart that we are seeing is not that

play32:06

meaningless and it is not that

play32:09

meaningful sorry

play32:10

now if we go to snp we can see that we

play32:13

went to four zero two four zero one and

play32:15

then we had a big move from four through

play32:17

one all the way to 390.

play32:20

and many people will look at this chart

play32:23

if this was like a full chart and we did

play32:25

not cap it we did not sort of uh

play32:28

reduced the size of these bars just

play32:30

because their relative value was small

play32:32

people would uh look at it and they

play32:34

would say that hey 400 401 were green

play32:37

level so we there was some main

play32:38

reversion from there and then these were

play32:41

all red levels so there was some

play32:42

momentum effect

play32:44

then

play32:45

maybe we

play32:46

had to maybe we expected some resistance

play32:49

at 394

play32:51

which we did not really get

play32:53

maybe we expected some support at 394

play32:55

which we did not really like fully get

play32:59

and then

play33:01

there was a red level and then maybe we

play33:04

expected some support at 392

play33:06

and then we expected

play33:08

the price to quickly

play33:09

reach 392

play33:12

and then we expected a strong support

play33:14

and 390. now that's what this chart is

play33:17

telling you and if you look at the price

play33:20

that's somewhat what happened that day

play33:23

we went to 390 we found support there

play33:26

but but like the unpopular opinion here

play33:29

is

play33:30

that was not caused by gammaxx spoiler

play33:33

and i know i'll get some flack for it

play33:36

and i know

play33:37

many people will not agree with me but

play33:39

i am a data scientist and i have to say

play33:42

things that i see with data

play33:44

this move was not caused by cam exposure

play33:47

it might have been caused by some other

play33:49

exposures such as van exposure charm

play33:52

some other kind of

play33:54

some other thing in the market

play33:56

but it was not caused by gamma expo yet

play33:58

because gamma

play34:00

was very very small

play34:02

throughout the entire day so gamma x per

play34:04

year was not strong enough to cause any

play34:07

momentum

play34:08

or any mean reversion moves it does look

play34:11

like that but

play34:12

i was talking about this with many of

play34:14

our users

play34:15

if you want to replace gamma levels

play34:18

without knowing any gamma exposure

play34:20

values just draw a line just draw a

play34:23

support line at every round number so

play34:24

400 390 380 370 and then even to like

play34:28

five

play34:30

as well 400 395 390 385 and you'll find

play34:34

that those levels work pretty well those

play34:36

are not like because of camera levels

play34:39

that's just because most

play34:41

of the options contracts

play34:42

are traded at these round values so

play34:45

there is just like a lot of dealers

play34:47

sitting on those positions and that can

play34:49

cause as price moves then we have

play34:51

bananas for your charm expo here so

play34:53

there are a lot of complex forces in the

play34:54

market

play34:55

that can cause those price at those

play34:57

levels to become levels of interest

play35:01

it is not just because of camera and it

play35:03

is not due to gamma exposure alone

play35:07

in this case i believe it was not

play35:09

because of gamma exposure at all

play35:13

and that's the hot take from this video

play35:15

and i hope uh you'll think about it and

play35:18

you'll do some do you'll do your own

play35:20

analysis and you'll come up with

play35:21

different conclusions now

play35:24

if this level was a huge level let's say

play35:27

if this was a huge red level

play35:29

it was going towards minus 0.5 that's a

play35:32

significant value

play35:34

anything greater than 0.5 just

play35:36

empirically i've seen that it's a

play35:38

significant value now if these bars were

play35:40

very very big

play35:42

then if we had a move similar to what we

play35:44

had then we might have been able to say

play35:47

that just that move was probably caused

play35:49

by gamma expo

play35:51

not not here but

play35:52

now when if these red bars were huge

play35:55

then what would happen what would we

play35:57

expect is as price

play35:59

starts to let's say come down

play36:02

we would expect these red and this is

play36:04

important so please listen carefully we

play36:06

would expect these red big red levels

play36:09

to act as magnets

play36:12

they'll act as magnets until price

play36:15

reaches towards them

play36:16

and then they will not cause a momentum

play36:19

effect once the price reaches towards

play36:21

them this is something that i did not

play36:23

get when i started looking at gamma i

play36:25

always thought that price will cruise

play36:27

through these levels it doesn't these

play36:28

red levels negative gamma especially for

play36:32

snp

play36:33

can cause even for other stocks and

play36:35

again you can do your own analysis here

play36:37

but this is what i have observed and

play36:38

learned these big negative gamma

play36:41

exposure levels can cause the

play36:43

cause the stock to come towards them and

play36:46

that happens because this is how the

play36:48

gamma distribution looks

play36:50

it peaks at these

play36:52

at the exact value of these strikes

play36:55

because we are coming towards them so

play36:57

gamma keeps increasing but once we are

play36:59

at i once we are at them gamma is not

play37:01

going to increase anymore

play37:03

okay so now what happens is

play37:06

price can quickly come to these levels

play37:09

but it can sometimes have a hard time

play37:12

going away from these levels because

play37:14

let's assume this was a big red level so

play37:17

price came towards it quickly now it

play37:19

starts to let's say there are some other

play37:22

red levels so it starts to go towards

play37:24

them but anytime it even makes a small

play37:26

move back

play37:28

this red level has still a lot of

play37:30

negative gamma so any move is going to

play37:33

get exaggerated so if we start moving

play37:36

back then this red gamma since it's very

play37:39

negative it's going to pull price

play37:40

towards it again

play37:42

so instead of causing a momentum effect

play37:44

once we reach it it is going to cause a

play37:47

magnet effect so it is actually going to

play37:49

try to pin the price

play37:50

on a big red level

play37:53

people think that these big green levels

play37:55

are going to cause this that's not

play37:57

necessarily true

play37:59

when we reach these big let's now assume

play38:02

again these levels were big they were

play38:03

high they were not really small when we

play38:06

reach a high green level

play38:09

now anytime price even starts to divert

play38:12

from them

play38:14

that price is going to divert a little

play38:16

bit more especially if there are red

play38:19

levels around these green levels so in

play38:21

my analysis what i have observed is that

play38:25

when we are moving towards that

play38:28

bars that can cause a momentum effect

play38:30

but once we are at big red bars that can

play38:33

cause a pinning effect when we are

play38:35

moving

play38:37

when we are not moving when we are at

play38:39

these green bars they are going to repel

play38:41

the price because market makers are not

play38:44

now going against what the price is

play38:46

doing so that can cause actually a

play38:48

repelling effect where once we reach

play38:50

this we are going to even like this day

play38:53

you can see that we ended the day on the

play38:55

red bar not on the green bar

play38:58

let's assume this was a big gamma day

play39:01

and this was all because of game

play39:02

exposure you can still see that like if

play39:05

you don't agree with what i said earlier

play39:07

on on the relative value even if this is

play39:09

the chart that you were looking at you

play39:10

can still see that we closed on a big

play39:13

negative gamma level not on a big

play39:16

positive gamma level

play39:18

and

play39:18

that's

play39:20

basically it for the video and it

play39:22

probably went a little bit much longer

play39:24

than

play39:25

what i had anticipated but i had so many

play39:27

thoughts because i have been like knee

play39:29

deep

play39:30

into all the analysis on how to actually

play39:32

choose scam expo here most people use

play39:34

game exposure for snp for spy not for

play39:37

spx but

play39:39

i would love for other people to now go

play39:41

ahead use some of these findings and

play39:43

actually see how they work with spx i

play39:46

would hope they work very similar

play39:47

especially the one where we are talking

play39:49

about the strikes and the relative value

play39:51

of these strikes and the bars

play39:52

and things like that and things but

play39:55

that's it for the video the last two

play39:57

things that i'll discuss is that we do

play39:59

have filters uh to filter for gammaxx

play40:02

per year that's expiring within seven

play40:04

days within 15 days within 30 days many

play40:07

people want to use these filters i'll be

play40:09

very honest i don't think there is a lot

play40:11

of value in using a dsl expiration

play40:14

filter because

play40:16

gamma is already very concentrated in

play40:19

near-term expirations so there is no use

play40:22

of using a digital expiration filter

play40:24

when the thing that you're looking at is

play40:27

already concentrated in shorter term

play40:29

expirations so most people like there

play40:31

are so many i believe misconceptions

play40:33

about how to actually use gamma levels

play40:36

and we have discussed some of them

play40:38

but some people still want to use these

play40:40

filters and sure and there is some gamma

play40:42

obviously in slightly longer term

play40:44

contacts as well so you might want to

play40:45

skip that for shorter moves sure you can

play40:48

do you can do that

play40:51

but yeah i i don't think there is much

play40:53

value in there so we have talked about

play40:55

gamma gamma exposure why don't we

play40:58

talk about delta exposure how do people

play41:00

calculate gammax for your total gammaxx

play41:02

per year and when to use it and then

play41:04

strike based cam exposure and how to use

play41:06

it

play41:07

and we have talked about different

play41:08

variations spot checks and checks and

play41:11

then we have talked about talked about

play41:12

some filters and i will i would like to

play41:15

quickly go through one example here so

play41:17

this is

play41:18

the gamma exposure uh these are the

play41:20

gammaxx period levels for iwm and these

play41:23

were

play41:24

bigger than snp so that's why i'm

play41:26

discussing them you can see

play41:28

one thing that we have recently

play41:30

introduced or sort of discovered is that

play41:32

anytime we have these like

play41:34

low

play41:36

gamma exposure bars

play41:38

that region is an illiquid region so we

play41:41

are assuming that market makers are not

play41:44

sitting strongly

play41:46

during those regions where we have low

play41:48

cam exposure and let's also assume low

play41:50

other exposures such as van and charmix

play41:52

per year

play41:53

that is what we call an illiquid zone

play41:56

and illiquid zones are we as customers

play41:59

or traders really want it's not the

play42:02

large gamma zones or the large vana

play42:04

zones that we want sure we'll do some

play42:06

analysis we'll do more analysis we'll

play42:08

talk about them but right now

play42:10

where we are standing i believe we want

play42:12

this illiquid zones because market

play42:15

makers are not doing anything in those

play42:17

zones

play42:18

and we can probably get much faster

play42:21

moves since we are passing through those

play42:23

zones or once we are in those zones

play42:25

and this is just an example so this zone

play42:28

this gray zone is what we call an

play42:30

illiquid zone because there was not much

play42:33

gamma in there you can see price quickly

play42:35

moved here and then this was obviously a

play42:37

resistance level we had some resistance

play42:40

we very made we very quickly made a down

play42:42

move as well

play42:44

so this was now since this has this had

play42:47

slightly bigger gamma levels

play42:50

you can see price quickly moved towards

play42:52

this level and then

play42:54

obviously we would expect some kind of

play42:58

once price was starting to move up we

play43:00

would expect some kind of resistance if

play43:02

price moved

play43:03

we would expect some kind of sort of a

play43:05

pullback as the price moved just a

play43:07

little bit down which we did not get

play43:09

here

play43:10

then the price uh

play43:12

went down and you can see like both this

play43:14

level and this level

play43:16

this level was actually i believe the

play43:17

highest level both of these levels

play43:20

quickly pulled the price towards them

play43:22

but then anytime price did anything else

play43:25

and it just came back a little bit this

play43:27

level would uh quickly pull it towards

play43:30

uh towards itself as well and that

play43:32

happened like here here here here so you

play43:35

can see like price quickly reaches these

play43:37

levels but

play43:38

once it starts going

play43:41

below above these levels then these

play43:43

levels at least try to pull the price

play43:46

towards them and then anytime we are in

play43:48

these illiquid zones

play43:50

that's where the price can

play43:52

slightly move freely so let's actually

play43:54

look at spire because i do think we had

play43:57

an illiquid zone here

play44:00

so i'll just draw the gamma exposure

play44:02

levels

play44:04

okay so this is the zone that we i am

play44:07

talking about so we had some let's say

play44:08

gamma at 392

play44:10

then at 396 398 and 400

play44:13

sure let's just skip those gamma levels

play44:15

because they were very low i believe now

play44:18

i'm just wrapping up the entire video i

play44:20

believe

play44:21

some of this move was probably caused by

play44:23

some factors sure include game exposure

play44:26

as well if you want to but i think the

play44:28

move from

play44:29

about 400 all the way to about 392

play44:33

was actually caused because of ill

play44:36

liquid regions not because of cam

play44:38

exposure

play44:39

because there was let's say there were

play44:41

no dealers sitting on big positions here

play44:44

so they no hedging was required price

play44:46

could do whatever it wants to do without

play44:48

dealers being involved and that's always

play44:51

a good thing we don't want them to be

play44:52

involved all the time because they are

play44:54

doing all kinds of hedging and there are

play44:56

not just camera catching there is like

play44:58

banner hedging and charm hedging so that

play45:00

can cause like weird effects and since

play45:02

that's such a complex topic

play45:05

it it's much easier for us when they are

play45:07

not there at all and that's where these

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ill liquid regions come in i do believe

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like from here onwards to here

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till till this level we had a very

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illiquid region and that caused the

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price to quickly go down i don't think

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it was the negative gamma strikes or it

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was the negative gamma that we had i

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think it was the illiquid zone

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and with that i'll stop this video

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because it has already gone very very

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long and thank you so much if you have

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made it this far like that that was so

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much information and sometimes i i

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believe i went on a rant because like i

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had so many things on my mind and i hope

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this was still useful for you and this

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gave you some perspective on

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how to actually use gamma levels if you

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do want to use them but then how to

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actually navigate through the pros and

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cons of gamma and gamma exposure and

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gamma levels and again i just hope this

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is useful for everyone i hope you have

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some idea on how to actually use our

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gamer levels and yeah just you i hope

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you learned a couple of things from this

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video thank you so much for watching

play46:09

this i will see you guys around

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Related Tags
Gamma-ExpositionOptionshandelMarktanalyseDelta-HedgingDynamic HedgingBörsenpsychologieVolatilitätLiquiditätszonenHandelsstrategienRisikomanagement
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