Predicting Volatility using Gamma Exposure
Summary
TLDRDieses Video erklärt, wie man mit der Dealers-Positionierung die Volatilität der nächsten Tage vorhersagen kann, was bei Optionshandel wichtig ist. Es präsentiert ein Tool namens 'Volatilitätsverteilung', das zeigt, wie volatil der nächste Tag sein könnte. Durch die Analyse von Gamma-Exposition und deren Einfluss auf zukünftige Preisänderungen, können Trader die erwartete Bewegung des Marktes besser einschätzen und ihre Positionen entsprechend anpassen.
Takeaways
- 📈 Volatilität ist ein entscheidender Faktor im Optionshandel, da sie neben der Richtung auch die Größe der bewegung beeinflusst.
- 🛠 Ein von den Autoren entwickeltes Werkzeug namens 'Volatilitätsverteilung' hilft, die Volatilität der kommenden Tage vorherzusagen.
- 📊 Der 'Dealer-Greeks-Buildup-Chart' zeigt Delta, Gamma und andere wichtige Werte für Optionshandel und deren Veränderungen im Laufe eines Jahres.
- 🔍 Delta-Werte sind zwar wichtig, aber sie sind nicht direkt mit der Volatilität korreliert und werden von Händlern sofort ausgeglichen.
- 📉 Gamma-Exposition zeigt eine klare Korrelation mit Preisbewegungen: Je höher die negative Gamma-Exposition, desto kleinere sind die zukünftigen Preisbewegungen.
- 📊 Die Volatilitätsverteilung basiert auf der Gamma-Exposition und hilft, die erwartete Preisbewegung für den nächsten Tag zu schätzen.
- 📝 Die Verwendung von historischen Daten ermöglicht es, die Volatilitätsverteilung für zukünftige Tage zu berechnen und zu prognostizieren.
- 📉 Ein hoher Wert der Gamma-Exposition nahe oder über Null kann auf große Preisbewegungen in den nächsten Tagen hindeuten.
- ⏱ Die Volatilitätsverteilung beinhaltet sowohl den Vor- als auch den Nachhandel und hilft, den erwarteten Verlauf für den gesamten Tag zu verstehen.
- 💡 Die Erkenntnisse aus der Volatilitätsverteilung können genutzt werden, um Handelsstrategien für den nächsten Tag zu entwickeln.
- 📅 Die Daten für die Volatilitätsanalyse werden am Samstag generiert, um die Verträge, die am Freitag abgelaufen sind, auszuschließen.
Q & A
Was ist der Schwerpunktthema des Videos?
-Das Schwerpunktthema des Videos ist die Volatilität und wie man mit Hilfe der Positionierung von Händlern die Volatilität der kommenden Tage vorhersagen kann.
Welche Art von Handelsinstrumenten wird im Video besprochen?
-Im Video werden Optionen als Handelsinstrumente besprochen, bei denen man nicht nur die Richtung, sondern auch die Volatilität richtig einschätzen muss.
Was ist das sogenannte 'Volatility Distribution'-Tool?
-Das 'Volatility Distribution'-Tool ist ein von den Urhebern entwickeltes Instrument, das vorhersagen kann, wie volatil die nächste Tage sein werden.
Was sind 'Dealer Greeks' und warum sind sie wichtig?
-Dealer Greeks sind Finanzmathematische Größen wie Delta und Gamma, die den Marktaufträgen der Händlergesellschaften entsprechen und für die Vorhersage von Preisbewegungen und Volatilität wichtig sind.
Was ist die Bedeutung von Delta in Bezug auf Volatilität?
-Delta ist eine wichtige Größe, zeigt aber keine klare Korrelation zur Volatilität. Händlern werden Delta sofort ausgleichen, daher ist es für die Volatilitätsprognose nicht nützlich.
Welche Rolle spielt Gamma-Exposition in der Volatilitätsprognose?
-Gamma-Exposition zeigt einen klaren Muster, dass extreme negative Werte zu kleineren Preisbewegungen in den nächsten Tagen führen und umgekehrt.
Wie wird die 'Volatility Distribution Chart' erstellt?
-Die 'Volatility Distribution Chart' wird basierend auf dem Muster der Gamma-Exposition erstellt, indem man die Vergangenheitsdaten betrachtet und die durchschnittlichen oder maximalen Preisbewegungen vorhersagt.
Was bedeuten die farbigen Balken in den Charts des Videos?
-Die farbigen Balken repräsentieren die verschiedenen Werte der Greeks und zeigen, wie sie sich über die Zeit entwickelt haben. Gelb steht normalerweise für den aktuellen Tag.
Wie kann man mit der Volatilitätsprognose Handelstrategien entwickeln?
-Mit der Kenntnis der erwarteten Volatilität kann man seine Handelspositionen anpassen, um Verluste durch Zeit oder Theta zu vermeiden und auf potenzielle größere Marktbewegungen vorzubereiten.
Welche Bedeutung hat die Volatilität für Optionshändler?
-Für Optionshändler ist die Volatilität entscheidend, da sie die Rendite und das Risiko des Handels beeinflusst. Je höher die Volatilität, desto größer sind sowohl die Chancen auf Gewinne als auch die Risiken.
Welche zusätzlichen Ressourcen werden im Video angeboten?
-Im Video wird ein Link zu einem weiteren Video angeboten, das Details zur Dealer Positionierung und zu den Begriffsklärungen für Delta, Gamma und When gibt.
Outlines
📈 Volatilität vorhersagen mit Dealers Positionierung
Dieses Video erklärt, wie man mit der Dealers Positionierung die Volatilität der nächsten Tage vorhersagen kann, was besonders für Optionshändler wichtig ist. Es wird ein Tool namens 'Volatilitätsverteilung' vorgestellt, das zeigt, wie volatil der nächste Tag sein wird. Der Fokus liegt auf Gamma-Exposition, da sie einen klaren Zusammenhang mit Preisbewegungen aufweist. Deltas werden aufgrund von Hintergrundinformationen und fehlender Korrelation zur Volatilität nicht berücksichtigt. Die Verteilung zeigt, dass extreme negative Gamma-Werte zu kleineren täglichen Preisänderungen führen, während Werten nahe bei Null oder leicht darüber große Bewegungen signalisieren.
📊 Volatilitätsverteilung als Vorhersagewerkzeug
Der zweite Absatz geht auf die Verwendung von Gamma-Exposition, um die Volatilität zu analysieren und zu zeigen, wie sie sich auf die zukünftigen Preisbewegungen auswirkt. Es wird ein Muster aufgezeigt, dass extreme negative Gamma-Werte zu geringerer Volatilität führen, während Werte um Null zu größeren Preisbewegungen neigen. Die Verteilung der Volatilität hilft, die erwartete Tagesbewegung abzuschätzen und ermöglicht es Tradern, ihre Positionen entsprechend zu planen. Die Charts werden in eine Volatilitätsverteilung umgewandelt, die zeigt, welche durchschnittliche Bewegung erwartet wird, einschließlich Ober- und Untergrenzen als Vertrauensintervalle.
🚀 Anwendung der Volatilitätsanalyse für Handelsentscheidungen
Der dritte Absatz betont die Bedeutung der Volatilitätsanalyse für Handelsstrategien. Er erklärt, wie die Kenntnis der erwarteten Volatilität hilft, die Positionen für den nächsten Handel zu planen. Wenn die erwartete Volatilität niedrig ist, könnte dies auf einen Tag mit geringeren Preisbewegungen hindeuten, was die Entscheidungen über die Positionierung beeinflussen kann. Die Verwendung solcher Analysen ist entscheidend, um Risiken zu minimieren und potenzielle Gewinne zu maximieren. Das Video schließt mit einer Aufforderung, Fragen im Kommentarbereich zu stellen, falls sie bestehen sollten.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Volatilität
💡Dealer Positionierung
💡Volatilitätsverteilung
💡Delta
💡Gamma
💡Griechische Buchstaben
💡Optionshandel
💡Volatilitätsmodell
💡Korrelation
💡Zeitaufwändigkeit
Highlights
The session discusses the concept of using dealer positioning to anticipate market volatility, which is crucial for options trading.
A tool called 'volatility distribution' is introduced to predict the next day's market volatility.
The importance of understanding delta, gamma, and when exposure in dealer positioning is emphasized for effective options trading.
The speaker explains the correlation between different greeks and stock price movements over the last year.
The lack of a clear pattern in the impact of delta on future price movements is highlighted.
Gamma exposure is identified as a key indicator for predicting volatility, with a clear pattern observed in the data.
Extreme negative normalized gamma exposure values are associated with smaller future price changes.
When gamma exposure is close to or slightly above zero, larger price moves are expected.
The volatility distribution chart is presented as a method to gauge expected market moves based on current gamma exposure.
The chart provides an average expected move, along with upper and lower limits for market volatility.
The speaker demonstrates how to use the volatility distribution to predict the next day's market movement.
The practical application of the tool for trading decisions, such as avoiding large positions on days with expected low volatility, is discussed.
The video provides a step-by-step guide on how to interpret the volatility distribution chart for trading purposes.
The impact of market volatility on trading strategies and the importance of positioning oneself accordingly is explained.
The speaker encourages traders to use the volatility distribution tool to make informed decisions in the market.
The video concludes with an invitation for viewers to ask questions in the comments section for further clarification.
Transcripts
hey everyone uh we are going to talk
about volatility today and we are going
to talk about
how to use dealer positioning uh to
anticipate how volatile the next couple
of days are going to be which is a very
powerful concept because most people
these days most retail traders are
trading options and with options you
don't have to be right with direction
you also have to be right with
volatility time and so many other things
so it's not just about direction
volatility or how big or small of a move
are we going to get tomorrow is a very
important part of options trading so
we have developed a pretty powerful tool
which we call volatility distribution
that can tell you how volatile the next
couple of days or at least the next day
is going to be so let's dive right into
how to actually
go about
finding the volatility distribution of
tomorrow
so we have the dealer
greeks buildup chart which shows you
delta's gammaxx for your van expo you're
in charm and if you don't know what some
of these terms are i'll link another
video on dealer positioning where we go
into
details on what delta gamma exposure
when exposure is
so please watch this video for the
purpose of this video i am going to
assume that you understand what delta
gamma when is
and so we have all these different first
order and second order greeks
and we have uh this ascend piece price
here i have the
snp spies options assembly dashboard
open so we have the stock price and then
we have the
values for
these different greeks over the last one
year and then we
we are charting these together just to
see how well they are correlated and
how well they
cause different movements
in each other but this chart is not that
clear and i it's very hard to tell
whether
it's very hard to tell how these bars
are impacting the price which is why we
have the next three charts so these
charts are a lot more
reasonable and they are a lot more
understandable
so
when we are talking about deltas and
delta is a loan because as soon as we
buy or sell an option dealers are on the
other side of the trade and they are
going to hatch right away which is why
deltas
are always always hatched so deltas
are not going to like solely cause
some volatility or cause some move
tomorrow they have a correlation with
how price can move but they are not
directly correlated with volatility and
since this the purpose of this video is
just to predict how volatile
or how big of a move are we going to get
tomorrow what we actually want to look
at is gamma exposure
and gamma exposure
the reason and so
when i'm saying gamma exposure why gamma
exposure so when we are looking at a
dealer positioning and its correlation
with price movements
and
when we're doing that we want to see a
clear relationship between those two
so let's just pull up delta so if we
have delta so each bar here
is a future price
and
the corresponding delta here so let's
say at this delta very positive delta
this would probably be here where
normalized delta normalized delta is
very positive
what happened in the next one day if you
want to go to next five days next one
day actually let's do one day so what
happened the next one day when we had
this big bar
and what happened there was the next day
the move was about
0.42 percent
and so you can see in this chart
there is no clear direction or no clear
pattern so it's like it's very circular
and
no we can't draw a trend line and we
cannot fit a linear dictation model or
things like that it's a pretty
random chart and we we never want that
when we are trying to make predictions
we do have a slight uh slight
correlation but it's still not that high
so that tells us that once just by
looking at it visually there is no
clear pattern so like that's the first
reason we are not using deltas there is
a more logical reason and that's dealers
are dealers are going to hatch their
deltas right away so deltas alone are
not going to give us much information
which is why we we are not looking at
delta especially for volatility but just
by looking at this chart you can see
yellow is where we are at right now so
we don't really know where
how much let's say we are going to move
we are not talking about direction right
now just we were just talking about the
magnitude of the moves that we are going
to get
in the next one day and again this is
future price so we are looking at where
we are at
each of these days and what happens next
and this can help us anticipate
if we are at this level is this yellow
level today what's going to happen
tomorrow or the next couple of days and
you can change that parameter from here
okay so hopefully we understand this
chart now i'm going to skip the price
distribution because that deals with
predicting the direction and i'm going
to go to the volatility distribution but
now that we have
found out that we're not going to use
deltas to predict volatility now let's
actually go and click on the gamma
exposure
and with gamma exposure we do have a
very clear pattern so correlation is
almost zero but there is a very clear
pattern
and that pattern is as you move towards
negative values of gamma exposure you
can see this volatility or or this
future price change contract so when
with extreme negative
normalized normalized just means we
divide everything by the maximum value
with extreme negative normalized gamma
exposure values
we can see that the moves the next one
days future change in percentage terms
starts getting smaller and smaller
now this gives us
some very good observations and some
very good ideas on how to predict
volatility so now this tells us that
anytime a game exposure is extremely
negative
in the next one day we are expecting
very small moves
on the flip side any time gamma exposure
goes to zero or slightly above zero you
can see this big move so literally like
four percent move in s and p
to the downside and then we have like
2.7 actually more more as well 3.17 so
we have these big moves in s p when
gamma exposure is either close to zero
or slightly above zero
that is very very powerful because
that one is a clear pattern we are not
getting these big moves like at this
point at the point that we are at right
now
okay so hopefully again that's clear now
what we're going to do is we are going
to convert this chart this exact chart
into this volatility distribution chart
and this chart is why i'm making this
video
so now based on this chart
we are going to
look at look at the regions look at the
dots around the yellow dot yellow is
where we're at right now
and just sum them up or average them up
to see how
much volatility or how big of a move are
we expecting so you can see that around
this yellow dot
we had like a max or minimum move of one
to minus one percent
and so we're going to do that we're
going to take an average of all these
dots around this
and then that's going to be the last bar
here
that's the yellow bar the bars the light
yellow bars above and below this are the
upper and lower limit so these are just
confidence intervals if we are saying
that based on today's data today is
august 22nd
tomorrow's volatility again future price
change tomorrow's volatility or
tomorrow's price change on average would
be 0.84
the max range would be about 1.15 and
the minimum
might be about 0.54 so now this is
telling us
that tomorrow we are expecting
on average a move of about one percent
uh
intraday or from today's close to
tomorrow's close
uh so this is actually from today's
close to tomorrow's close so this does
include the pre-market
and the after hours movement as well
so i hope i i keep saying this but i
hope you realize that this chart one it
has a pattern and second once we we have
found a pattern we can now look at where
we stand right now and use that to gauge
where we are going to
go in terms of how volatile or how big
of a move we are going to get tomorrow
okay so what happened uh
last
friday this would be a friday so yeah so
this data is from saturday but the data
is built on top of what we had until
friday
and the reason we generate this data on
a saturday is so that we can skip all
contracts that expired on friday so this
data was telling us about how big of a
move
are we going to get today which is
august 22nd and we are looking at august
21st to gauge how much we are going to
move on august 22nd
and you can see that the move was about
1.24 percent on average which is like
more than the highest limit we have for
tomorrow and the high was
the higher limit was about 1.7 percent
one point seven percent in s p is a very
big move in the day
and so this was telling us that today
we are again not saying up or down we're
just saying today we are going to get a
big move up to about like one point
seven one point eight percent at max and
then even on the lower end at least
about zero point eight to zero point
and nine percent intraday move
again
that's very powerful because
we were expecting a lot more volatility
today and anytime this is a role that
every trader should know anytime we have
more volatility there is more reward and
there is more risk and traders typically
want to go to markets that have
volatility so volatility
is really good as long as you know what
you're doing
so once we know how volatile tomorrow is
going to be we can position ourselves
for
for tomorrow
for instance if volatility is going to
be slightly lower tomorrow
then we can then we can at least decide
that we are not going to go into big
positions tomorrow because there might
be some choppiness there might be some
main reversion so we just want to avoid
losing money
to time or to theta
or to other factors
so that's again very important to know
so i hope uh at least by now you
understand how we are generating this
this chart and these bars are from some
previous states and just to show you
what wallet volatility levels were in
some previous states
so i hope again we are going to skip the
price distribution for this video but i
hope the the greeks correlation and the
correlation of the price change the
future price change with game expo yet
and the volatility distribution charts
are now clear and i hope you can start
using them to sort of gauge how big of a
move are we going to make and then make
then make a place based on that
if you have any questions please feel
free to post them in comments
i hope this was a useful video to you
i'll see you guys around
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