As South Africa enters a more 'mixed coalition style of politics', can ANC 'revive its fortunes'?
Summary
TLDR南アフリカでは、選挙後に投票の集計が行われており、大統領シリル・ロサは第2期を目指していますが、統治党のANCは30年前に白人の少数派支配を終わらせたが、今ではその時代が終わろうとしています。特に高い失業率(約33%)に悩む多くの南アフリカ人は、ANCに不満を持ち始めています。選挙当日は、投票所での長い列が続き、技術的な遅延や停電が相次ぎましたが、投票に参加する人々の情熱は高まりました。最終的な選挙結果は日曜日に発表される予定です。しかし、最新の世論調査ではANCが初めて50%を割り込むことがなく、他の政党が王手の役割を果たす可能性があります。選挙結果を受け、南アフリカは未知の分野に向かっていますが、新しい政府が持つ解決策はまだ不明です。
Takeaways
- 🗳️ 南アフリカの選挙が行われており、現在の大統領シリル・ロサは第二任期を目指していますが、統治党であるANCは選挙調査で初めて50%を割り込む可能性があります。これは彼らが30年前に白人の少数派支配を終わらせた党です。
- 📊 高い失業率(約33%)に悩む多くの南アフリカ人は、統治党に対する不満を持ち、選挙結果は日曜日に発表される予定です。
- 🎉 選挙の締め切りの後も、南アフリカの投票所には長い行列が続き、選挙への情熱は高まっています。
- 🏛 ロビン島では、ネルソン・マンデラがかつて収監されていた場所で、人々は民主主義の過程に参加し、投票に参加しています。
- 🚨 選挙当日は抗議、停電、技術的な遅延が相次ぎ、多くの投票者が選挙に混乱を覚えましたが、選挙管理委員会は投票率に注目しています。
- 💡 統治党ANCは1994年以来初めて50%を割り込むことがない状況にありますが、他の政党は彼らの代わりに政治の支配を目指しています。
- 🤔 政治分析家ダニエル・シルクは、国家の腐敗やサービス提供の不足、特に高い失業率のために選挙に参加する人々がANCを非難し始めると指摘しています。
- 🔍 反対派は分裂しており、ANCの歴代の敵である民主同盟や経済自由戦士党、そしてジャコブ・ズーマ元大統領の新しい党SWEなど、新しい政治勢力が登場しています。
- 🌐 ズーマは主にザール族(南アフリカ最大の民族)からの支持を受けており、選挙では民族的または部族的な投票傾向が見られると分析されています。
- 🔄 南アフリカは未知の分野に向かって進んでおり、反対派が結束し、犯罪、腐敗、停電、非常に高い失業率など南アフリカの問題を解決する力があるかどうかは不明です。
- 📉 もしANCが30年来初めて政権を失うと予想される場合、彼らはどのように党を復活させるかが課題となりますが、南アフリカの政治はこの選挙後に変化しており、選挙の断片化と多党制の政治スタイルが見られるようになっています。
Q & A
南アフリカの選挙はどのような結果が予想されていますか?
-予想される結果は、統治党であるANCが1994年以来初めて50%未満の支持率を得ることです。最終的な選挙結果は日曜日に発表される予定です。
南アフリカの選挙において、選挙権が争われていた時代とはどのような違いがありますか?
-選挙権が争われていた時代と比べると、現代の南アフリカでは民主主義のプロセスに参加し、選挙に投票する自由があると同時に、高い失業率などの社会問題に直面しています。
南アフリカの選挙において、投票率はどのくらい見込まれていますか?
-選挙当局は、2019年の66%を超える投票率を見込んでいると報告しています。
南アフリカの選挙において、選挙の延期はなぜ起こりましたか?
-選挙の延期は、電力停電や技術的な遅延、選挙官の混乱などによるものと報告されています。
南アフリカの選挙において、ANC党が直面している課題は何ですか?
-ANC党は、腐敗や国家の贔屓、サービス提供の悪化、特に高い失業率など、多くの課題に直面しています。
南アフリカの選挙において、反対党はどのような立場から挑んでいますか?
-反対党は、ANC党の統治に対する抗議票を得ようとしており、特にクワザネール省では、元大統領ジャコブ・ズーマの新しい党SWEが支持を獲得しています。
ジャコブ・ズーマはなぜ新しい党を立ち上げ、選挙に参戦しましたか?
-ジャコブ・ズーマは、ANC党からの支持を失った後、新しい党SWEを立ち上げ、特にズール族の支持を獲得しようとしています。
南アフリカの選挙において、若年層の投票率はどのくらいですか?
-若年層の投票率は具体的には報告されていませんが、全体の投票率は高いと予想されており、2019年を上回る見込みです。
南アフリカの選挙において、選挙結果がどう影響を与えると予想されていますか?
-選挙結果は、南アフリカの政治情勢に大きな影響を与えると予想されており、ANC党が50%を下回ると、政権形成に協力政党が必要になる可能性があります。
南アフリカの選挙において、選挙後の政治的安定性はどのようになさそうですか?
-選挙後の政治的安定性は、ANC党が50%を下回ることによって揺れる可能性があり、政権形成に協力政党が必要になるため、政策の実行が難しくなる可能性があります。
南アフリカの選挙において、選挙結果が発表されるまでの期間はどのくらいですか?
-選挙結果は投票の翌日曜日に発表される予定です。
Outlines
🗳️ 南アフリカ選挙とANCの危機
南アフリカでは選挙が行われ、シリル・ロサ大統領が2期目に挑戦していますが、統治党であるANCは30年前に白人の少数支配を終わらせた功績にもかかわらず、支持率が低迷しています。憲法変更30周年を迎える中、特に高い失業率(約33%)に苛立ちを募らせる多くの南アフリカ人は、ANCの統治に疑問を持つようになっています。選挙結果は日曜日に発表される予定です。選挙当日は投票所での長い列が続き、国民の投票への情熱は高かったものの、技術的な遅延や停電、混乱が相次ぎました。投票率は2019年よりも高いと予想されており、選挙委員は多くの市民が民主主義に貢献したと評価しています。ANCは1994年以来初めて50%を割り込むことがなく、他の政党が王手となる可能性があります。政治分析家のダニエル・シルク氏は、国家統治にかかわる選挙において、変化の機会があると指摘しています。
🤔 南アフリカの政治的将来と課題
南アフリカの政治状況は、選挙後の結果を待つ緊張に包まれています。ANCは支持を失い、特にジャコブ・ズーマ前大統領の新しい党が登場し、特にズール人層からの支持を獲得しています。これは民族的・部族的な投票の傾向が強いことを示唆しており、南アフリカの政治はこれからも様々な民族、文化、地域的層にわたる断片化が進むと予想されています。重要な課題として、失業率の高まり、貪汚、電力不足などが挙げられますが、新しい政府がこれらの問題にどう対処するかはまだ不透明です。政府が50%を割り込むことがない場合、政権形成には協力政党が必要となります。ANCは今後、政府を維持するためには協力政党を選ぶ必要があり、それは国の将来に大きな影響を与えることになるでしょう。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡選挙
💡シリル・ロサ
💡ANC
💡失業率
💡選挙結果
💡投票
💡選挙違反
💡政治的多様性
💡ヤコブ・ズーマ
💡政治的協力
Highlights
Vote counting is underway in South Africa after the election.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is seeking a second term.
Polls indicate the ruling ANC may be losing its majority after 30 years.
High rates of unemployment, around 33%, are a major concern for South Africans.
Final election results are expected by Sunday.
Voters remained determined despite delays and technical issues.
Robin Island, where Nelson Mandela was imprisoned, saw high voter turnout.
Election day experienced protests, power outages, and confusion among voters.
Election officials noted a likely higher voter turnout than the 66% in 2019.
President Ramaphosa is confident of a majority win for the ANC.
Recent polls show ANC's support below 50% for the first time since 1994.
Opposition parties are fractured, with new players emerging.
Former President Jacob Zuma's new party, swe, is gaining votes, particularly among Zulu voters.
South Africa may be entering a period of coalition politics.
Unemployment and corruption are top issues for voters.
The ANC's future as a dominant party is uncertain.
The election could lead to a more fragmented and coalition-based political landscape.
The ANC will need to form a coalition if it falls below 50%.
South Africa faces a medium-term project to improve state services and unemployment.
Transcripts
now vote counting is underway in South
Africa after Wednesday's election
President siril Rosa is seeking a second
term but polls indicate the ruling ANC
which ushered in the end of white
minority rule 30 years ago may have its
days numbered many South Africans
particularly frustrated with high rates
of unemployment which hover at around
33% final uh election results are due
out this Sunday Jo jamine follow this
report long after Wednesday's 9:00 p.m.
deadline and lines of South African
voters could still be seen snaking their
way into polling stations across the
country Spirits remained High though as
voters participated in the Democratic
process our vote is something that we
fought for so I will definitely wait
here for as long as it takes to vote
here on Robin Island the same prison
that once held Nelson Mandela bongeka
ganga voted for the first time Freedom
was I can say threat in this island so
being here and V care is just such a
great thing ever while passing without
serious incident the day was still
checkered by protests power outages and
lengthy technical delays as voters also
became confused over the amount of
choices available nonetheless election
officials made note of the turnout it
will probably be well beyond what we had
the
66% we had in 2019 one of those in a
more bullish mood was the country's
president Sol ramapa as he dropped his
ballot in Soto the people of South
Africa will give thec as they vote today
a firm majority there isn't even a doubt
about that recent polls though have put
the ruling a andc at less than 50% for
the first time since 1994 leaving others
with a kingmaker role in their sights
for the first time in 30 years There's
an opportunity for change in South
Africa at a government level we are here
to take over government that's where our
Target is with counting underway final
results are likely to be known by Sunday
after which Parliament has two weeks to
choose South Africa's next
president we can now bring in Daniel
silk director of the political Futures
consultancy who joins us from Cape Town
thank you very much for speaking to us
here on France 24 today now there was
not a long time ago where thec were real
heroes in South Africa I mean this party
ushered in the end of white minority
rule what happened
well I think uh the country has suffered
under extensive corruption over the
course of the last 10 15 years State
capture has taken its toll and of course
this has affected Service delivery the
state owned Enterprises have been unable
to provide uh reliable electricity the
transportation company has not been able
to provide reliable rail Services the
roads have Pooles and there is
exceptionally high unemployment one of
the highest levels in the world and I
think in the end voters are beginning to
to react and they're beginning to blame
the governing ANC for these deficiencies
and who is thec up against because it
seems that the opposition is kind of
fractured the opposition has been
fractured we've seen a multitude of
additional political parties new players
on the political scene uh the anc's uh
classic enemy has been the Democratic uh
Alliance a moderate Centrist party a
more leftist Marxist party called the
economic freedom fighters but the big
Challenger this year particularly in the
province of quaza nutel has been former
president Jacob Zuma's new party swe and
that is decimating thec vote
particularly amongst Zulu voters in that
Ken Province okay I want to talk about
Jacob Zumer for a second here because a
lot of the anc's problems are linked to
Jacob Zuma's presidency given that how
is it that he is taking votes away from
thec well I think there's a protest vote
certainly among sectors of South Africa
against uh sir ramapa and the leadership
of ramapa but I think when we look back
on this election and we analyze the
results we may well see that the support
for Jacob Zuma's party and for Jacob
Zuma is very much more of an ethnic or
tribal vote in South Africa since Zuma
derives most of his support from the
Zulu ethnic group most populous in quaza
Nel and I think we're seeing a reversion
back to ethnic-based identification
politics within South Africa and that
probably would explain his good
showing now if the polls are right of
course South Africa is headed for
Uncharted Territory does the opposition
once they do come together will they
have what it takes to fix many of South
Africa's problems including crime
corruption uh power outages and as you
said that unemployment rate that is
incredibly high at what 33%
32.9% uh yeah in fact that unemployment
rate is higher much higher even amongst
young South Africans over 50% look
there's a long way to go here in
deciding who the next government is
going to going to be thec will be the
largest party it's going to full below
50% it will need to choose whether it's
going to go with the leftist Marxist
grouping or whether it's going to go
with the Centrist more Pro bus grouping
that's going to ultimately uh set the
course for South African economic policy
and whether we rescue the country or
begin a process of rescuing the country
or in fact deteriorate further into
populist policies there's no decision
yet on how that government is going to
be comprised we'll wait for the final
results because of course fixing things
like unemployment takes a lot of time no
new government is going to come with a
magic wand and and things will get
better
automatically no you're quite right uh
the deficiencies in the state in
delivery are real uh this is a a
medium-term project I think that if uh
South Africans come together and there
are Partnerships between the state and
the business Community you can begin a
process of improving the life of South
Africans and improving all of these
services but I have to say that that's a
political decision it depends on how the
uh government of the day is going to be
constructed when the governing party
drops below 50% it requires some sort of
Coalition partner and choos the right
partner is really the critical issue and
the unknown for South Africa at this
stage now if the polls are right and the
ENC does in fact find itself uh out of
government for the first time in 30
years uh how does the party revive
things well I don't think it's going to
be out of government I think it's going
to be a weaker government it's going to
be a a 45% government because it'll
still be by far the largest political
party in South Africa so it will have
the best chance of forming a government
the question is and I think you're
rightly said Canada revive its fortunes
I think thec I think I think South
African politics has changed after this
particular election we've seen a
fragmentation of the electorate across
various ethnic cultural Regional lines
um and I think that we entering now a
more mixed um Coalition style of
politics in South Africa more Akin
actually to many European countries who
have coalitions fragmented and messy as
they are and it may well be not possible
for thec to restore itself to being that
big U demonic power that it was for the
last 30 years would you say jobs topped
voters Minds as they headed to the polls
across ages not just the youth yeah I
think jobs were the number one issue
corruption certainly has been U again uh
one of the top issues uh and uh the fact
that the lights have gone out in South
Africa due to power blackouts over the
course of the last 18 months these are
these are all concerns for South
Africans it's really um a disappointment
in the inability of government to
deliver and uh the disappointment in the
lack of opportunity
that's available to so many South
Africans Daniel S we're going to have to
leave you there thank you very much for
joining us on the program today
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