Elon Musk on war with China | Lex Fridman Podcast Clips

Summary

The speaker delves into the potential for conflict between the U.S. and China, drawing parallels with historical events like the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. They emphasize the importance of understanding cultural differences and the benevolent nature of U.S. foreign policy after WWII, contrasting it with China's inward focus. The speaker also highlights China's determination to incorporate Taiwan and the significance of conspicuous acts of kindness as a deescalation strategy, likening it to the Marshall Plan's role in rebuilding nations after the war.

Takeaways

• 👤 The speaker believes the possibility of a US-China war over Taiwan cannot be ruled out due to the potential clash between rising and declining powers, drawing parallels with the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta.
• 📚 The speaker is an avid reader of military history and believes studying past wars can provide insights into the causes of victory and the root causes of conflict.
• 🇺🇸 The speaker believes the US has historically been a relatively benevolent global power, citing examples like the Marshall Plan and the decision not to conquer the world after WWII despite having the military capability.
• 🇨🇳 The speaker acknowledges China's impressive economic and infrastructural development, and the presence of a large number of hardworking and intelligent people in the country.
• 📖 The speaker highlights China's rich history and tradition of writing, which has preserved a detailed record of its past, in contrast with many other ancient civilizations.
• 🏡 The speaker believes China has traditionally been inward-looking and not expansionist, which could be a positive factor in avoiding future conflicts.
• 🇹🇼 The speaker recognizes China's firm stance on incorporating Taiwan into its territory, either peacefully or through military means, as its economic and military power grows.
• 🕊️ The speaker suggests that conspicuous acts of kindness and avoiding punitive measures against defeated nations, as the US did after WWII, could be an effective way to prevent future conflicts and break cycles of reciprocal violence.
• 👥 The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding and appreciating cultural differences between nations to bridge gaps and foster collaboration.
• 💥 The speaker acknowledges the potential for conflict between rising and declining powers but expresses hope that open communication and mutual understanding could help avoid such an outcome.

Q & A

What was the main topic discussed in the transcript?

The main topic discussed was the potential conflict between the United States and China, particularly regarding the issue of Taiwan, and how to avoid such a clash between the two superpowers.

What historical example was used to illustrate the inevitability of conflict?

The example of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta was used to illustrate how, even when the parties saw the conflict coming, they were unable to avoid it.

What was mentioned about the economic foundation of war?

It was stated that the foundation of war is economics, and the fact that China's economy is likely to become two or three times larger than that of the United States could create a potential conflict situation.

What positive aspects of Chinese culture were highlighted?

The speaker highlighted the sheer number of smart and hardworking people in China, as well as the impressive architecture and infrastructure developments in recent years, such as train stations, buildings, and high-speed rail systems.

How was China's historical focus described?

It was mentioned that China has historically been internally focused and not inquisitive or interested in invading other countries, unlike some other powerful nations.

What was said about the United States' behavior after World War II?

The speaker stated that the United States engaged in conspicuous acts of kindness, such as helping to rebuild Europe and Japan, which was described as very unusual and unprecedented behavior for a victorious superpower.

What example was given to illustrate morality in wartime?

The example of being a prisoner of war was used, with the speaker suggesting that most people would prefer to surrender to the Americans rather than the Russians or other forces, as an indication of relative moral standing.

What was mentioned about China's stance on Taiwan?

It was stated that China has been very clear about their interest in incorporating Taiwan, either peacefully or militarily, as they view it as a fundamental part of China that should not be separate.

What was suggested as a potential path forward to avoid conflict?

The idea of conspicuous acts of kindness as a geopolitical policy was suggested as a potential path forward to avoid conflict and deescalate tensions between countries.

What historical lesson was mentioned regarding the treatment of defeated nations?

The speaker mentioned that the harsh treatment of Germany after World War I, with punitive reparations, laid the seeds for World War II, while the more benevolent approach of the Marshall Plan after World War II helped rebuild former enemy nations and prevented further conflict.

Outlines

00:00

🗣️ Historical Lessons on Avoiding Wars Between Superpowers

This paragraph discusses the potential for war between the US and China, particularly regarding the Taiwan issue. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding history and the causes of past wars, such as the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. The speaker notes that while the Greeks were diligent in documenting events, leading to a clear understanding of the war's buildup, the parties involved still could not avoid the conflict, despite recognizing the inevitability of a clash between the rising power of Athens and the established dominance of Sparta. The speaker draws parallels to the current situation, where China's economic rise may lead to a clash with the United States, the longstanding global economic leader.

05:02

🇨🇳 Understanding China's Culture and Internal Focus

This paragraph offers insights into China's culture and historical tendencies. The speaker highlights the impressive number of hardworking and intelligent individuals in China, as well as the country's remarkable architecture and infrastructure developments. However, the speaker notes that China has historically been inward-focused and not particularly inquisitive about external affairs. China has experienced numerous internal civil wars, including the Three Kingdoms War, which resulted in a staggering population loss. The speaker emphasizes that China is not a monolithic entity and that Chinese people are more concerned with internal matters than external affairs. The speaker contrasts China's historical lack of inquisitiveness with other powerful countries that have been more expansionist, and praises the United States for its generally benevolent global influence and non-inquisitive nature after World War II.

10:04

🕊️ The Potential of Conspicuous Acts of Kindness in Promoting Peace

This paragraph discusses the significance of Taiwan for China and the potential for conflict over the issue. The speaker explains that China views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, akin to a state like Hawaii for the United States. China has clearly stated its intention to incorporate Taiwan, either peacefully or militarily, as its economic and military power grows. The conversation then shifts to the concept of "conspicuous acts of kindness" as a geopolitical policy. The speaker suggests that such acts, while seemingly naive, can resonate with the goodness of human nature and potentially prevent wars by deescalating tensions. The speaker cites the mistakes made after World War I, where harsh treatment of Germany contributed to the conditions that led to World War II. In contrast, the post-World War II Marshall Plan, which aimed to rebuild former enemies, is presented as a positive example of this approach.

Keywords

💡War

The state of armed conflict between nations or groups. In the video, war is discussed as a potential outcome if diplomatic solutions fail between the US and China, particularly over issues like Taiwan. The speaker references historical wars like the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta to illustrate how conflicts can arise even when the parties see them coming and wish to avoid them.

💡Diplomacy

The practice of conducting negotiations between nations or groups to resolve disputes peacefully. The video emphasizes the importance of finding diplomatic solutions to avoid a potential US-China conflict, especially regarding the status of Taiwan. Diplomacy is presented as a means to prevent the escalation of tensions into outright war.

💡Cultural Understanding

The ability to comprehend and appreciate the values, beliefs, and practices of different cultures. The speaker highlights the importance of cultural understanding between the US and China to bridge the cultural gap and foster better relations. He cites his own experiences in China, learning about their impressive infrastructure and long history, as examples of gaining cultural understanding.

💡Economics

The production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The video suggests that economics is a foundational cause of war, with the speaker noting that China's economy is projected to surpass that of the US, potentially leading to a clash between the two superpowers. Understanding the economic dynamics is crucial for avoiding conflict.

💡Inquisitiveness

The quality of being curious and eager to learn or investigate. The speaker contrasts the US and China, stating that neither country has historically been inquisitive in the sense of seeking to expand their influence through military conquest. This shared trait is presented as a positive factor in preventing future conflicts between the two nations.

💡Conspicuous Acts of Kindness

Highly visible and deliberate acts of compassion or generosity. The video suggests that such acts, like the US's efforts to rebuild Europe and Japan after World War II, can serve as an antidote to the cycle of reciprocal violence and help prevent future conflicts. These acts are contrasted with the harsh treatment of Germany after World War I, which sowed seeds for further conflict.

💡Benevolence

The quality of being kind, generous, and willing to help others. The speaker characterizes the US as having generally been a benevolent force in the world, despite its imperfections. This benevolence is exemplified by actions like the Berlin Airlift and the treatment of prisoners of war, which are presented as indicators of a nation's morality.

💡Reciprocal Violence

A cycle of retaliatory violence or aggression between parties in response to perceived wrongs or injustices. The video suggests that conspicuous acts of kindness can help break this cycle, while harsh treatment or punishment, like that imposed on Germany after World War I, can perpetuate it and sow the seeds for future conflicts.

💡Superpowers

A nation or group with superior economic, military, and political power and influence on a global scale. The video discusses the potential for conflict between the US and China, describing them as superpowers whose clash could have far-reaching consequences. Understanding the dynamics between superpowers is presented as crucial for avoiding war.

💡Taiwan

An island off the southeastern coast of China with a complex political status that is a major point of tension between the US and China. The video

Highlights

China's got incredible history very long history and um you, know I think arguably the in terms of, the use of language from from a written, standpoint um sort of one of one of the, oldest Perhaps Perhaps the oldest, written language and and then China, people did write things down,

China is not, monolithic um we sort of think of like, China as the sort of one entity well off, one mind and this is definitely not the, case um from what I've seen and I think, most people who understand China would, agree people in China think about China, 10 times more than they think about, anything outside of China

The good news the history of China, suggests that China is not inquisitive, meaning they're not going to go out and, invade a whole bunch of countries

The US is one of the, also one of the rare cases that has not, been inquisitive like after World War II, the us could have basically taken over, the world and any country like we got, nukes nobody else got nukes we don't, even have to lose, soldiers uh which country do you want MH, and the United States could have taken, over everything oh at will and it didn't

The United States actually helped, rebuild countries so it helped rebuild, Europe you it helped rebuild Japan um, this is very unusual behavior almost, unprecedented

One sort of test, would be how do you treat your prisoners, of War mhm or let's say, um you know no offense to the Russians, but let's say you're in Germany it's, 1945 you got the Russian army coming on, one side you got the French British and, American armies coming on the other side, who would you like to be to surrender to

Von Brown um yeah took, you know smallart guy uh was like we've, got to be captured by the Americans, yeah and uh in fact the SS was under, orders to execute B Brown and all of the, uh German rocket Engineers

America has, been uh while far from perfect uh, generally a benevolent Force

China and uh the, United States are similar NE neither, country has been, inquisitive um in a significant way so, that's like a you know a shared, principle I guess

China does, feel very strongly about, Taiwan they've been very clear about, that for a long time

From their standpoint it's it's it would be, like one of the states is is is you know, not there like like Hawaii or something, like that but but more significant than, Hawaii you know

They view it as as really, the that there's a fundamental part of, China the island of fosa not not Taiwan, that is um not part of China but should, be

And the only reason it hasn't been, is because of the US Pacific, Fleet and as their economic power grows, and as their military power, grows the thing that they are clearly, saying, uh is their interest will you know, clearly be, materialized

China has been very clear that um, they will incorporate Taiwan uh, peacefully or um militarily but that, they will incorporate it from their, standpoint is 100%, likely

After World War II, they're like well the Treaty of usai was, a huge mistake um in world world, one and um so this time instead, of, uh you know crushing the losers we're, we're actually going to help them, with the Marshall Plan and we're going, to help re reu Germany we're going to, help rebuild or you know Austria and the, other you know Italy and whatnot,

Transcripts

you spoken honestly about the

possibility of war between us and China

in the long term if no diplomatic

solution is found for example on the

question of Taiwan and one China policy

right how do we avoid the trajectory

where these two superpowers

Clash well it's it's worth reading that

book on the the difficult to pronounce

through CAD trap I believe it's called I

love war history I like inside out and

backwards um there hardly a battle I

haven't read read

about and and trying to figure out like

what what really was the cause of

victory in any particular case as

opposed to what one side or another

claimed the reason both the Victory and

what sparked the war and yeah yeah the

whole thing yeah so that Athens and

Sparta it's classic case the thing about

the Greeks they really wrote down a lot

of stuff they loved writing um you know

there are lots of interesting things

that happened in many parts of the world

but they people didn't write down so we

don't know what happened happened or

they didn't really write

with in detail they just would say like

we went we had a battle and we won and

like what can you add a bit more um the

the the Greeks they really wrote a

lot they were very articulate on they

just love writing so and we have a bunch

of that writing that's preserved so we

know what led up to the pipian war

between um the spot and Athenian

Alliance um and uh

we we know that they they for quite they

they saw it

coming I mean the Spartans didn't right

they they also weren't very Bose by

their nature but they did right but they

weren't very B they were tur uh but the

the Athenians and the other Greeks were

Ro a line and they were

like um and spot was really kind of like

the leader of of Greece um but but

Athens grew stronger and stronger with

each passing

year and um and and everyone's like well

that's inevitable that there's going to

be a clash between Athens and

Sparta uh well how do we avoid that and

they couldn't they couldn't they

actually they saw it coming and they

still could not avoid

it so you know at some point if there's

if if

one uh group one civilization or or

country or whatever

um exceeds another sort of like if you

know the United States has been the

biggest kill on the Block

for since I think around 1890 from an

economic standpoint so the United States

has been the economic most powerful

economic engine in the world longer than

anyone's been

alive

um and the foundation of war is

economics

so now we have a situation in the case

of china where the uh um the economy is

likely to be two perhaps three times

larger than that of the US so imagine

you're the biggest kid on the Block for

as long as anyone can remember and

suddenly a kid comes along who's twice

your

size so we see it coming yeah how is it

possible to stop is there some let me

throw something out there just

intermixing of cultures understanding

there does seem to be a giant cultural

Gap in understanding of each other

and you're an interesting case study

because you are an American obviously

you've done a lot

of uh incredible manufacturer here in

the United States but you also work with

China I've spent a lot of time in China

and met with the leadership many times

maybe a good question to ask is what are

some things about China that people

don't understand positive just in the

culture what's some interesting things

that you've learned about the

Chinese well uh the the sheer number of

really smart hardworking people in China

is um incredible uh there are really you

say like how many smart hardworking

people are there in China there's far

more of them there than there are here I

think in my in my opinion

um the uh and they've got a lot of

energy

so I mean the architecture in China

that's in recent years is far more

impressive than the US I mean the the

train stations the buildings the

highspeed rail everything it's

um really far more impressive than what

we have in the US I I mean I recommend

somebody just go to Shanghai and

Beijing look at the buildings and go to

you know take the train from Beijing to

Shion where you have the Terracotta

Warriors um China's got incredible

history very long history and um you

know I think arguably the in terms of

the use of language from from a written

standpoint um sort of one of one of the

oldest Perhaps Perhaps the oldest

written language and and then China

people did write things down

so um now China um historically has

always been with rare exception been

internally focused um they've not been

inquisitive uh they've they' fought each

other there been many many Civil Wars um

in the Three Kingdoms War I believe they

lost about 70% of the

population

so so the they've had brutal internal

Wars like civil wars that make the US

Civil War

look small by

comparison

um so I think it's important to

appreciate that China is not

monolithic um we sort of think of like

China as the sort of one entity well off

one mind and this is definitely not the

case um from what I've seen and I think

most people who understand China would

agree people in China think about China

10 times more than they think about

anything outside of China so it's like

90% of their consideration is uh you

know are is is internal well isn't that

a really positive thing when you're

talking about the collaboration and a

future peace between superpowers when

you're inward face which is like

focusing on improving yourself versus

focusing on yeah uh quote unquote

improving others through military might

the good news the history of China

suggests that China is not inquisitive

meaning they're not going to go out and

invade a whole bunch of countries um now

they do feel very strongly you know so

that's that's good I mean because a lot

of lot of very powerful countries have

been inquisitive um the US is one of the

also one of the rare cases that has not

been inquisitive like after World War II

the us could have basically taken over

the world and any country like we got

nukes nobody else got nukes we don't

even have to lose

soldiers uh which country do you want MH

and the United States could have taken

over everything oh at will and it didn't

um and the United States actually helped

rebuild countries so it helped rebuild

Europe you it helped rebuild Japan um

this is very unusual behavior almost

unprecedented

um

you know the US did conspicuous acts of

kindness like the Berlin

airlift you

know

um and and I think you know it's always

like well America's done bad things well

of course America's done bad things but

one needs to look at the the whole track

record um and and just

generally you know one one sort of test

would be how do you treat your prisoners

of War mhm or let's say

um you know no offense to the Russians

but let's say you're in Germany it's

1945 you got the Russian army coming on

one side you got the French British and

American armies coming on the other side

who would you like to be to surrender to

like no country is like morally perfect

but I recommend uh being a PW with the

Americans that would be my choice very

strongly in the full menu of very much

so and in fact Von Brown um yeah took

you know smallart guy uh was like we've

got to be captured by the Americans

yeah and uh in fact the SS was under

orders to execute B Brown and all of the

uh German rocket Engineers uh and they

narrowly escaped their SSI they said

they were going out for a walk in the

woods they left in the middle of winter

with no coats

uh and ran like and with no food no coat

no water and just ran like hell uh and

ran West um and by Sher like they I

think his brother found like a a bicycle

or something and um and then just cycled

W as fast as he couldn't found found a

US

Patrol um so anyway that's that's one

that's one way you can

tell morality is who who where do you

want to be a

PW it's not fun anywhere but some place

are much worse than others

so um anyway so so so like America has

been uh while far from perfect uh

generally a benevolent Force um and uh

we should always be self-critical and uh

would try to be better um but um anyone

with half a bra knows that so so I think

there are in this way China and uh the

United States are similar NE neither

country has been

inquisitive um in a significant way so

that's like a you know a shared

principle I guess um now now China does

feel very strongly about

Taiwan they've been very clear about

that for a long time um you know from

their standpoint it's it's it would be

like one of the states is is is you know

not there like like Hawaii or something

like that but but more significant than

Hawaii you know um

and Hawaii is pretty significant for us

so um they view it as as really

the that there's a fundamental part of

China the island of fosa not not Taiwan

that is um not part of China but should

be uh and the only reason it hasn't been

is because of the US Pacific

Fleet and as their economic power grows

and as their military power

grows the thing that they are clearly

saying

uh is their interest will you know

clearly be

materialized

yes China has been very clear that um

they will incorporate Taiwan uh

peacefully or um militarily but that

they will incorporate it from their

standpoint is 100%

likely you know something you said about

conspicuous acts of kindness as a

geopolitical policy

it almost seems

naive but I'd venture to say that this

is probably the path forward how you

avoid most wars just as you say it it

sounds naive but it's kind of

brilliant if you believe in the goodness

of underlying most of human nature it

just seems like conspicuous acts of

kindness can uh reverberate through the

populace of the countries

involved yeah well and deescalate

absolutely so after World War One the

the they made a big mistake you know

they basically tried to lump all the

blame on Germany um and

um and and you know settled Germany with

uh impossible

reparations um and you know really there

was a lot of there was a fair about a

blame to um go around for World War I um

but they they try to you know put it all

in Germany

um and uh that was that that laid the

seeds for World War

II uh

so that's a lot of people well not just

Hitler a lot of people felt wronged um

and they wanted

Vengeance and they got it people don't

forget yeah you you you kill

somebody's father mother son daughter

they not going to forget it they will

want Vengeance um so after World War II

they're like well the Treaty of usai was

a huge mistake um in world world

one and um so this time instead

of

uh you know crushing the losers we're

we're actually going to help them

with the Marshall Plan and we're going

to help re reu Germany we're going to

help rebuild or you know Austria and the

other you know Italy and whatnot

so

um that was the right move there's uh it

does feel like there's a profound

truth to uh conspicuous acts of kind as

being an antidote to

this something wased off the the cycle

of reciprocal

violence something will stop it or it

will you know it'll it'll it'll never

stop

just eye for an eye tooth for a tooth

limb for a limb life for a life forever

and

ever