The Rise of China and the Decline of the United States: Power Transition and War or Peaceful Change?

Summary

This lecture delves into the power transition theory, examining the potential for major conflict between the US and China amidst China's economic and military rise. The speaker, drawing from historical precedents and current geopolitical shifts, discusses the likelihood of war and the possibility of peaceful change to avoid conflict. The talk challenges the notion of a stable balance of power, suggesting instead that significant power disparities and rising states pose greater threats to peace.

Takeaways

• 📝 The topic discussed is the rise of China and the likelihood of a major war between the United States and China.
• 📊 The speaker presents a hierarchical system of power transition theory, with a focus on dominant, great, middle, and small powers.
• 🇺🇸 The rise of China and the decline of the United States are seen as significant power shifts in the global distribution of power.
• 💡 The speaker argues that China's economic growth and increasing military capabilities have significant consequences for other countries' foreign policies.
• ⚠️ The possibility of a major war between the United States and China is examined, with a focus on reducing this likelihood.
• 🔍 The power transition theory suggests that shifts in the power hierarchy, especially the rise of great powers, make war more likely.
• 📈 China's economic growth and military expansion are highlighted, with data showing significant increases in defense spending and capabilities.
• 🤔 The speaker questions whether China is a satisfied status quo power or a dissatisfied revisionist power.
• 📚 The theory suggests that dissatisfied rising powers pose a greater threat to stability and are more likely to challenge the dominant state.
• 🔄 The concept of peaceful change is explored as a way to accommodate rising powers and avoid major conflicts.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the presentation?

The main topic of the presentation is the rise of China and the likelihood of major war between the United States and China and its respective allies.

What does the speaker use to illustrate the hierarchical system discussed?

The speaker uses chalk to illustrate the hierarchical system discussed, which includes the dominant power, great powers, middle powers, and small powers.

What are the two primary aims of the paper mentioned by the speaker?

The two primary aims of the paper are to examine the possibility of a major war between the United States and China and to see what can be done to lessen this possibility.

What theory does the speaker focus on in the presentation?

The speaker focuses on Power Transition Theory, which discusses the dynamics of power shifts and the potential for major wars.

What economic and military developments in China are highlighted by the speaker?

The speaker highlights China's remarkable economic growth, increasing military capabilities, large defense budget, and the development of military technology to project power.

How does Power Transition Theory view the concept of hierarchy in international relations?

Power Transition Theory views a hierarchical distribution of power as helping to keep the peace, with a dominant state using its power to create an international order that benefits itself.

What are the three elements of power identified by Power Transition Theory?

The three elements of power identified by Power Transition Theory are population (specifically the number who can work and fight), economic productivity, and the effectiveness of the political system to extract resources.

What is the significance of the concept of parity in Power Transition Theory?

In Power Transition Theory, parity exists when a great power becomes a challenger and develops more than 80% of the resources of the dominant power, indicating a high potential for conflict.

What is the speaker's view on the possibility of nuclear weapons being used in future conflicts?

The speaker believes that despite many theories suggesting otherwise, it is likely that nuclear weapons could be used in future conflicts, emphasizing the seriousness of the current power transition.

What is the speaker's perspective on the idea of peaceful change in international politics?

The speaker discusses the idea of peaceful change as an alternative to war, emphasizing the need for accommodation and concession to avoid major conflicts, drawing on historical examples and the work of scholars from the interwar period.

Outlines

00:00

📚 Introduction to Power Transition Theory

The speaker begins by introducing the topic of power transition theory, using a chalkboard to visually represent the hierarchical system of world powers. Acknowledging the contribution of Professor dukovich, the speaker reflects on their teaching experience and the influence it has had on their research. The central theme revolves around the rise of China and its potential to incite major conflict with the United States and respective allies. The speaker argues that China's economic growth and increasing military capabilities are significant factors in the shifting global power dynamics, affecting the foreign policies of regional countries. The paper aims to explore the likelihood of war due to this power transition and suggests that while the rise of China is a paramount issue, there are measures that can be taken to mitigate the risk of conflict.

05:01

🌏 China's Economic and Military Ascendancy

This paragraph delves into China's economic growth and its conversion into military strength. The speaker identifies China as a rising power with a growing economy, which has led to its current position as the world's largest exporter and manufacturer. Despite recent economic challenges, China's defense budget has seen a consistent increase over the past two decades, making it the second-largest military spender globally. The speaker acknowledges the development of China's military technology and its efforts to project power, traditionally a capability associated with the United States. The speaker also touches on demographic factors, such as China's large population compared to the United States, and how power transition theory considers these elements in assessing the potential for great power status.

10:03

🔄 Power Transition Theory and Rising States

The speaker explains the core components of power transition theory, emphasizing the hierarchical distribution of power and the potential instability caused by shifts in power dynamics. The theory suggests that a dominant state creates an international order that benefits itself, but it's the rise of new powers that can challenge this order and potentially lead to conflict. The speaker outlines the four parts of power transition theory: structure, power, the concept of parity, and the degree of satisfaction or dissatisfaction of the rising power. The paragraph concludes by questioning whether China is a satisfied status quo power or a revisionist power, highlighting the importance of this distinction in understanding the likelihood of war.

15:06

🤔 The Paradox of Power and Satisfaction

This section further explores the power transition theory, particularly focusing on the role of satisfaction or dissatisfaction among states. The speaker discusses how status quo states are generally content with the existing international order, while revisionist states seek to change it to better reflect their interests. The speaker presents the argument that China, as a rising power, may be dissatisfied with the current order and could potentially be a catalyst for conflict. The paragraph also touches on the historical context of power transitions and the potential for war, referencing the work of scholars like Graham Allison and the concept of the Thucydides Trap.

20:06

🕊️ The Pursuit of Peaceful Change

The final paragraph shifts the focus to the concept of peaceful change, drawing on historical and contemporary theories that advocate for altering the status quo without resorting to war. The speaker references E.H. Carr and other interwar scholars who explored how to achieve change in international politics through peaceful means. The speaker suggests that appeasement, often viewed negatively, might be reconsidered in the context of avoiding catastrophic war. The paragraph concludes by suggesting that power transition theory, while pessimistic about the inevitability of war, could be mitigated by efforts towards peaceful change and accommodation of rising powers like China.

Keywords

💡Hierarchical System

The hierarchical system refers to a structure where entities are ranked according to status or authority. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the power dynamics among nations as outlined by Power Transition Theory, with dominant powers at the top and smaller powers beneath them. The script mentions this system to frame the discussion on international relations and the potential for conflict due to shifts in power.

💡Power Transition Theory

Power Transition Theory is a concept in international relations that suggests that major wars are likely to occur when a rising power approaches the economic and military capabilities of the dominant power. The video discusses this theory as a framework for understanding the current geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on the rise of China and its implications for global stability.

💡Dominant Power

A dominant power is a nation that holds a superior position in terms of economic, military, and political influence on the global stage. The script uses this term to describe the United States' position in the hierarchical system and how it relates to the rise of China, potentially leading to a shift in power dynamics and the risk of conflict.

💡Rising Power

A rising power is a nation that is increasing in economic and military strength, potentially challenging the status of existing dominant powers. The video script discusses China as a rising power, highlighting its rapid economic growth and military expansion, which are central to the concerns about the likelihood of major war with the United States.

💡Great Powers

Great powers are nations with significant influence and status in global affairs, often possessing strong economies and military capabilities. The script refers to great powers in the hierarchical system, indicating their role in maintaining or challenging the international order.

💡Middle Powers

Middle powers are nations that, while not as influential as great powers, still play a significant role in international relations due to their geographic location, economic strength, or political alliances. The video mentions middle powers in the context of the hierarchical system, suggesting their importance in the balance of power.

💡Small Powers

Small powers are nations with limited global influence, often due to smaller economies or populations. The term is used in the script to describe the lowest tier in the hierarchical system of nations, indicating their position relative to great and middle powers.

💡Economic Growth

Economic growth refers to the increase in a nation's income or gross domestic product (GDP) over time. The script highlights China's remarkable economic growth as a key factor contributing to its rise as a global power, which has significant implications for international politics and the potential for conflict.

💡Military Capabilities

Military capabilities encompass the full range of a nation's ability to defend itself and project power, including the size and strength of its armed forces, technological advancements, and strategic assets. The video discusses China's increasing military capabilities as a central concern in the context of power transition and the potential for major war.

💡Peaceful Change

Peaceful change is the concept of altering the status quo in international politics without resorting to war or force. The script explores the idea of peaceful change as a means to potentially avoid conflict between the United States and China, referencing historical and contemporary discussions on how to manage power transitions without resorting to violence.

💡Status Quo

Status quo refers to the existing state of affairs or the current situation in any given context. In the video, the term is used to describe the international order as it is, with the dominant power maintaining the system that benefits itself. The discussion revolves around whether rising powers like China are content with this status quo or seek to change it to better reflect their interests.

Highlights

Introduction of Power Transition Theory and its relevance to current global power dynamics.

Discussion on the hierarchical system depicted through a chalkboard diagram distinguishing dominant, great, middle, and small powers.

Acknowledgment of Professor dukovich for inspiring research amidst final exams.

The paper's focus on the rise of China and its potential to cause major war with the United States and respective allies.

Argument that China's economic growth and military capabilities are central to global power shifts.

China's remarkable progress in exports, trade, and manufacturing, surpassing historical leaders.

The impact of China's rise on foreign policies of regional countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Australia.

Contrary viewpoints on the current state of China's economy and population challenges.

China's ascending military spending and its position as the second-largest military spender globally.

The concept of parity in power transition theory and its implications for international relations.

The role of population as a key ingredient in power transition theory and China's demographic advantage.

Distinguishing power transition theory from classical realism on the causes of war.

The importance of a rising power's satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the current international order.

Debate over whether China is a status quo or revisionist power and its implications for global stability.

Power transition theory's grim outlook on the likelihood of war despite the presence of nuclear weapons.

The idea of peaceful change as an alternative to war, drawing from historical and contemporary perspectives.

The role of appeasement in peaceful change and its controversial legacy.

The potential need for accommodation and concession to avoid catastrophic war in the context of power transition.

Concluding thoughts on the possibility of avoiding major war through understanding and addressing power transitions.

Transcripts

well I'm dealing with a very uh

old-fashioned topic so I'm going to use

some chalk too to show how oldfashioned

I I still am um I'll just put this up

this is not the uh liberal virtuous

triangle that gets us World Peace uh

this is the hierarchical system that

power transition Theory uh talks about

and which I'm going to talk about but so

I'm just going to do this quick diagram

here we have the dominant power here we

have the great Powers here we have

middle powers and uh I didn't invent all

this language small

Powers okay uh so first of all I'd like

to thank uh Professor dukovich very much

uh I think he's probably one of the few

people that could get people to work on

a research paper in the middle of final

exams uh most would the answer would

been

no uh two uh this is a very uh different

paper uh for me um rather than a

research driven paper uh it's actually

uh a result of the courses I've been

teaching um uh causes of War which is my

bread and butter course and for the last

two years I've taught this uh wonderful

course on the rise and fall of American

emony and I've been blessed with having

some of the best students I've ever had

in my career in both classes uh so a lot

of this is coming from from my

teaching um and if it is a paper it is

in the uh very beginning developmental

stages so my basic topic is uh the rise

of China and the likelihood of major war

between the United States and China and

its respective

allies I argue that of all the issues

contributing to the Grand split the rise

of China is Paramount and uh we are

witnessing I would argue a pretty

significant power shift in the relative

distribution of power certainly the rise

of China uh and or the decline of the

United

States uh for at least the last 20 plus

years China's remarkable economic growth

has and uh increasing military

capabilities has been headline news uh

that policy makers academics and

students have focused

on uh the rise of China is having

enormous consequences for other

countries foreign policies including the

countries in the region such as the

Philippines Vietnam uh the United States

and the the pivot uh and Australia who's

increasingly nervous about a growing

China this also raised the likelihood of

major war and here we've come full

circle uh 1989 Francis

fukiyama uh proclaimed the end of

history and that the biggest issue we'd

have to deal with was

boredom uh the idea of war in Europe was

seen as nonsensical something of few

dinosaur realists talked about and that

the future looked like a very bright uh

peaceloving Democratic

Community um and all but in a relatively

short period of time uh we've gone from

that to a pleora of books articles war

game strategies war game scenarios

policy

changes uh that forecast an impending

war between the United States and and

China and not only that of course we

have a major Maj war in

Ukraine we have a major war in Gaza that

has great potential to become a greater

Middle Eastern

War uh so that's the gloom and doom so

the outline of my paper are basically

two aims uh the first is to examine the

possibility of a major war between the

United States and China and secondly to

see what can be done to lessen the

possibility uh that the current power

transition that we're underway this rise

and fall of power Dynamic does not

result in major war whereas it often has

in the

past um so I do assume uh that we are in

the midst of a power transition and

that's when we're talking about the work

of uh uh Mr Dr oransky uh who was the

principal uh uh developer of power

transition theory in the

1950s uh and the power transition school

has gotten a a great uh boost in recent

years

because they seem to uh capture what's

going on uh quite

remarkably uh so three sections uh first

is to provide some data on China's

growing economic and Military

capabilities uh I am aware that uh some

of these indicators recently have gone

in the wrong

direction uh I had a student write a

wonderful paper showing that the United

States is pushing far far ahead of China

and that China is having all kinds of

problems economically in terms of

population so I'm aware of all that but

I'm going to call myself a China Rising

Optimist uh which may partly stem from

the wonderful trip I was able to take

with PE to China before covid and when I

saw Shanghai literally my brain just did

something differently I just could not

really capture what I was actually

seeing and experiencing uh in

China uh secondly I review the

literature of those who make the

argument that significant changes

changes in the distribution of Power are

causally related to the outbreak of

major war and here again my primary

focus is on oransky and the power

transition School uh which follows from

his 1958 Book World

politics uh and give the story away a

little bit uh Rising dissatisfied powers

are big time

trouble our are uh so if China does fit

that bill uh you know the idea of great

power war is not as uh farfetched as

some might want to

believe and three just is kind of

unusual for my myself uh I try to infuse

the paper with some

optimism uh and I revisit the work uh

that was being done the 1930s and 40s on

this idea of peaceful

change right of how to have how to do

accommodation how do you get change in

international politics without War uh

and this was a big theme of the interwar

scholars and in the little time I've had

to research this uh not complete

surprise there's a lot of people still

working on this concept of peaceful

change and there's an entire oxer

handbook on Peaceful change that I've

discovered um okay so do this pretty

fast uh economic data uh until most

recently China's been experiencing

double digit economic growth and most

economists did predict by 2025 China

would have the second largest economy uh

in the

world uh since the onset of the Great

Recession China has successfully taken

top position in World exports passing

Germany in trade passing the United

States and in manufacturing a claim that

the United States has had for about a

century uh China's goods and exports

continue to rise 7% from

2021 and China Global Surplus is around

$877

billion uh realism 101 is that countries

that are growing economically convert

some of that power to their

military and here there's great evidence

to uh show that that is in fact what

China has been

doing uh in a 2023 US Department of

Defense report to Congress there was

reported that China's 2022 defense

budget continued more than 20 years of

annual defense spending increases and

puts the People's Republic China's

position as the second largest military

spender in the world after the United

States uh the report further notes that

the defense budget has nearly doubled in

the last decade uh indicating that 2013

through

202022 China's annual budget has grown

by 6% adjusting for inflation they have

the large they have the world's largest

active military force comprised of about

2.85 million uh people in the reserves

1.17 mil the active excuse me

2.85 million active people in the

military 1.7 million reservists 660,000

paramilitary Personnel uh on and on and

on China has their first aircraft

carrier China is working on Military

technology to project power uh the

United States often seem to have be the

only country that can project power over

long distances China is increasingly

developing those capabilities their Air

Force Navy Etc and yes the one child

policy and the Aging issue is certainly

something I need to take into account

but you know on paper 1.4 billion people

compared to the United States is roughly

350 million people uh and power

transition theory is going to argue that

population is one of the key ingredients

uh for great power

status okay so power transition Theory

uh so I usually take about three hours

to do this when I lecture uh so I'm

going to do this in about 5

minutes uh so one of the big things of

how these folks different than classical

realist people is that they argue that a

hierarchy of power basically helps to

keep the peace uh realism 101 basically

says that if states are roughly equal

and there's a balance of power we should

see much less war because no one's going

to actually win if everybody's equal uh

actually power transitions Theory says

that when we get to a degree of

inequality that is another real danger

zone so when you're all you know back in

the early day when the United States was

Curly on top the idea that great power

war was pretty much impossible most of

the great Powers were status quo states

that supported the United States and

even if these states have revisionist

aims they have no capability to do much

about it right so this is a relatively

tranquil system it's when we start

seeing shifts in the players especially

great Powers Rising challenging the

dominant state that this school of

thought says this is what makes War uh

uh more likely so hierarchy rather than

equilibrium and it's going to identify

Rising States as the big problem where

other theories you know the declining

state but Power transition Theory

definitely says that the rising state is

the the country we need to focus

on okay so briefly there's four parts of

the power transition Theory right one is

structure and that is my complicated

diagram here uh a hierarchical

distribution of power right when all the

states clearly recognize the dominant

power now quite interestingly they do

not were use the word Hemy they do not

use you know so Robert Gilpin some of

you might know that they use the word

dominant

State

um I did I wrote yes thanks to you uh

again uh um and this dominant state uses

its power to create an international

order that is greatly beneficial to

itself right it's interests are you know

in part of this order it can't be just

completely that way because you got to

get other countries to go along but you

know uh you could even you know iin

Barry is a liberal internationalist but

ien Barry sees the same role that

heimans which he calls them create

International orders to reflect their

interest and everything is fine and

dandy when there's a

hedgemon uh

um so inequalities of power is the

problem uh for our power transition

theory in terms of their structural

argument uh Power is uh another key

ingredient uh We've you know political

science is largely we could say used to

be largely about power but over 150

years of political science you know

drives undergraduates and us crazy what

is power and just book after book on

what is power uh they identify three

elements of power

uh so one population uh specifically the

number who can work and fight that's

what we want people to

do um Power is the ability to impose or

persuade an opponent to comply with

demands so it's very much that kind of

you know I exercise influence of you I

make you do something that you would not

otherwise want to do so a function of

population two is economic productivity

the r of

industrialization uh different numbers

but usually gross domestic product per

capita is the measurement used and C

this is a bit more of a ambiguous uh but

it's the effectiveness of the political

system to extract resources so we might

have strong States weak States but you

know a state that can tax the population

can mobilize resources for it to uh

build aircraft

carriers um and it's the shift in power

relations that that has serious

consequences for international stability

uh and it draws upon this old you know

Paul Kennedy's rise and fall of great

Powers Robert gilpin's hegemonic theory

of War uh but this idea of the law of

uneven growth right all countries do not

grow at the same rate a whole bunch of

different factors but some rates grow at

a faster rate than others uh and the

argument here is that this is in fact

what was happening with regard to

China so uh why conflict there's two two

key uh things here one is the concept of

parity uh which according to power

transition Theory exists when a great

power becomes a challenger and develops

more than 80% of the resources of the

dominant power so there there really is

a Formula aspect to this you know but so

80% which once you start to catch your

80% you're at the level of parity that's

Danger Danger real danger is overtaking

that's the other key concept uh this

occurs when a rising power develops

economically at a faster rate than the

dominant

power right um so could could be changes

in industrialization changes in

technology changes in worker

productivity etc etc um that can trigger

this now the other thing that I find

very interesting about power transition

theory is this this third element the

degree of satisfaction or

dissatisfaction that the rising power

might have right so basically Al you

know this is not just true to power

transition Theory but it sees a world of

status quo States happy with the

existing order they basically get their

interest realized more often than not

and they are willing to go along with

the existing system the other types of

state are dissatisfied revisionist

States they don't believe they're

getting their fair share of the spoils

don't believe the international order

reflects their own interest and if they

could change it they would change it by

definition the dominant power is a

status quo satisfied state right right

there u in the United States we call it

King Of The Hill in Canada I call it

King of the castle uh that snow when we

used to have snow you stand on the

castle and if you're on top you stay

there and you try to kick everybody or

push or wish people did not come up uh

but those are the revisionist

challengers um and the dominant power

wants to stay on top of the

castle um so um this begs the question I

mean power transition theorists

basically argue that a we are at uh

parity and we're very close to

overtaking so the $20 question becomes

is China a satisfied status quo power or

is China a revisionist

power uh and we could take this both

ways I mean one side of the story is

that China is a status quo State uh it's

Ben benefited from the liberal

International order uh it wants to make

a few changes but it's gone rich and

Strong by being part of the WTO thanks

to President

Clinton uh and so it can be accommodated

whatever whatever the other side is that

would be like U uh Chris Lane calls the

idea of benevolent hedge of mind the

Unicorn Theory like have you have you

ever seen a benevolent hamon have you

ever seen a

unicorn uh so the idea that China is not

re

visionist uh would seem to be the

possible unicorn Theory right that if

you are a rising power that you've been

uh opposed to the universal Declaration

of Human Rights opposed to these other

types of things have a history of being

pummeled by the West it would be kind of

shocking that China would not like to

change the existing International order

and have it more aligned with its values

interests etc

etc um

I got a few more minutes um so the

question becomes can this war be avoided

and power transition Theory I would just

say a couple things one and this is

maybe where they are a little nutty uh

this can happen even with nuclear

weapons right so many of our theories of

War say yes that was a good theory in

the 1800s but with nuclear weapons all

of that's off the board right power

transition Theory and myself I do not

accept that I think it'll be a miracle

if nuclear weapons are not used before I

die

um two um they believe this is underway

right and the question is can the West

do anything to accommodate China and if

it does not there likely will be a war

maybe it will be an inadvertent war that

triggers from Taiwan on and on blah blah

blah okay so I got like a two minutes

anyway some of this really just goes

back all the way through thus cities

right so everyone's totally lost right

the so the history of the pipian war you

know you read that 500 page book ah uh

but there's one line that people love

you know why did the war start the

growth of Athenian power and the fear

this caused in Sparta right and so so

people say ah that was an Insight um and

Graham Allison at Harvard University has

this article in book called The

fluidities Trap which some of you

probably know and uh him and his Harvard

team uh argue that 15 of the last 19

power transitions have resulted in major

war and they are pretty Grim about the

prospects of us avoiding uh a major war

in the future okay so uh to do total

Injustice uh peaceful change which is

the third uh area of my paper uh this

again Springs from eh cars the 20 years

crisis and in the chapter before the

conclusion he has a chapter on Peaceful

change right and he defines peaceful

change as how in National politics how

to have change without Revolution

and in international politics uh how to

have change without War right and part

of his whole idealism realism Schism

creation uh is an attempt to when we get

to the problem of peaceful change that

you have to have both elements right you

need to have a moral foundation and a

power Foundation to try to search for

the right place in which you can have

peaceful

change um now interestingly car thought

that appeasement of uh Chamberlain to uh

Hitler was a good example of what he was

getting at right interestingly enough

that's one of the few passages that no

longer is found in any of the subsequent

editions that was eliminated after the

1939 book uh and this is also when

appeasement got its Bad Name all right

so peaceful change and there's been a

lot of work on appeasement is

appeasement always a dirty word right is

giving into the demands of a rising

power always a bad thing to do you know

I'm not I don't have the verdict on that

but it's something to think about uh

again conventional wisdom is you never

do this uh but if we're in

unconventional times uh that maybe some

of that would be involved again Carr was

not alone uh the GU guy Frederick Sheran

Dunn he wrote a book in 1937 called

peaceful change and he defined it as the

alteration of the status quo by peaceful

International procedures rather than by

force uh the work of the International

Studies conference in the interwar

period which some people is the

predecessor to the international studies

Association had conference after

conference on Peaceful change right

would it be through adjudication would

it be through legal means would it be

through give and take but here's the

idea that you know if you want to avoid

war uh you might have to do some

concession some accommodation if the war

is going to be so terrible to avoid it

so that's my optimism part and uh still

needs more development but we have power

transition theory on the one hand very

very pessimistic about war coming uh

peaceful change does recognize the power

transition is happening but does not you

know thinks there's still things that we

can actually do uh to perhaps diminish

the possibility of a major war between

the United States and China so thank you

very much