Tom Lee: Best Guaranteed Trade by year-end; AI, NVDIA & AMD
Summary
TLDR在视频中,Fundstrat Global Advisors的联合创始人兼管理合伙人Tom Lee表达了对小盘股市场的极度乐观态度。他预测,小盘股在年底前可能上涨40%,基于市盈率从10倍增长到14倍的合理预期。Lee认为,随着美联储政策的正常化和并购活动的加速,小盘股将受益,特别是Russell 2000指数中的股票。他还提到,小盘股的增长速度实际上比S&P 500指数更快,估值更低。Lee强调,一旦市场确信美联储将进入降息周期,这将是小盘股的催化剂。此外,他还讨论了大型股如英伟达的表现,以及AMD的策略,后者通过收购来增强与英伟达的竞争。Lee建议投资者进行研究并咨询财务顾问。
Takeaways
- 📈 汤姆利对市场整体,特别是小盘股非常看好,认为市场底部已经形成。
- 🔢 他预计小盘股到年底可能上涨40%,这需要将市盈率从10倍提升到14倍,并非要求市场进行巨大的重新估值。
- 💹 汤姆利认为小盘股的上涨与美联储政策正常化和并购活动加速有关,这将增强CEO信心,从而惠及小盘股。
- 📊 尽管有人担心小盘股亏损,但罗素2000指数的中位数盈利增长率比标普500快700个基点,收入增长也快400个基点。
- 💡 汤姆利认为,一旦市场确信美联储开始降息周期,小盘股的上涨催化剂就会发挥作用。
- 🚀 他提到,像英伟达这样的大型股已经出现了大幅上涨,这表明市场对小盘股的预期上涨并非不可能。
- 🤔 汤姆利不认为小盘股40%的涨幅意味着其他市场部分会下跌,而是认为这将突出市场的广泛性。
- 💰 他认为,如果能够以10倍市盈率获得18%的盈利增长,这是一个良好的风险回报比。
- 🛑 他警告说,经济衰退将是对他理论的负面影响,但美联储不需要大幅降息,只需要市场相信利率将回归中性。
- 📊 英伟达的财报对整个市场叙事非常重要,因为它代表了推动美国经济的生产力提升趋势。
- 💼 汤姆利对AMD的收购策略表示赞赏,认为这有助于公司与英伟达竞争,吸引像Meta和微软等客户。
Q & A
汤姆利(Tomley)对市场的整体看法是什么?
-汤姆利对市场非常乐观,特别是对小型股。他认为市场底部已经在8月初形成。
汤姆利对小型股的预期涨幅是多少?
-汤姆利认为小型股可能在年底前上涨40%。
为什么汤姆利认为小型股能够实现40%的涨幅?
-他认为小型股的市盈率(PE)中位数将从10倍上升至14倍,这并不需要市场进行巨大的重新评估,而是随着美联储政策正常化和并购活动的加速,小型股将受益。
汤姆利提到的并购活动加速是什么意思?
-他指的是今年并购活动已经在加速,这将增强市场对小型股的信心,因为并购活动是CEO信心的一个指标。
汤姆利如何看待小型股的增长和估值?
-他认为小型股的增长速度并不慢,尽管有些人认为小型股亏损,但这主要是因为生物科技板块的特点,实际上Russell 2000的中位数盈利增长速度比S&P快700个基点。
如果小型股指数Russell 2000上涨40%,那么大型股和更广泛的S&P 500会发生什么?
-汤姆利认为这不意味着其他市场会下跌,而是市场正在扩大,这是我们所有人都期待的。
汤姆利对于美联储的利率政策有何看法?
-他认为市场最好的情景是相信实际利率现在过于紧张,市场不需要大幅度的降息,但需要相信我们正在回到3%的中性利率。
汤姆利提到了Nvidia的股价表现,这有什么特别的意义吗?
-Nvidia的股价表现很重要,因为它支撑了美国经济的生产力推动,使用数字工具和自动化是一个重要的通货紧缩趋势。
AMD最近收购了ZT系统,这对公司有什么影响?
-AMD通过收购ZT系统,加强了与Nvidia的竞争,这有助于公司获得像Meta和Microsoft等客户,显示出公司CEO积极进取的态度。
投资者在考虑投资小型股时应采取什么策略?
-汤姆利建议投资者找到Russell 2000的前三大持股,特别是生物科技板块,然后根据自己的投资风险偏好选择一个长期投资的股票,或者通过整个板块来获取收益。
汤姆利对于投资者有什么建议?
-他提醒投资者在投资前要进行自己的研究,并咨询财务顾问。
Outlines
📈 小型股市场看涨预期
Tomley 对整体市场特别是小型股市场持乐观态度。他认为市场底部已经形成,并预测小型股在年底前可能上涨40%。Tomley 解释说,这并不是要求市场进行大规模的重新估值,而是预计随着美联储政策的正常化和并购活动的加速,小型股将受益。他指出,尽管生物技术板块亏损较多,但Russell 2000指数的中位数盈利增长速度比S&P 500快700个基点,而收入增长速度则快400个基点。Tomley 认为,一旦市场确信美联储开始降息周期,这将成为小型股的催化剂。他还提到,如果小型股指数Russell 2000上涨40%,并不意味着其他市场部分会下跌,而是市场正在扩大。此外,他强调了Nvidia等大型股的强劲表现,并认为这不会对小型股的上涨构成威胁。
🛒 AMD 收购ZT系统以追赶Nvidia
AMD 通过收购ZT系统,一家数据中心设备设计公司,以加强其在云计算和人工智能领域的竞争力,从而追赶Nvidia。这笔价值50亿美元的交易是AMD在短短两个月内的第二次收购,显示了CEO的积极进取态度。Tomley 对AMD的这一战略举措表示赞赏,并认为这将有助于公司吸引像Meta和Microsoft等客户。同时,他提醒投资者在做出投资决策前要进行自己的研究,并咨询财务顾问。视频最后,Tomley 鼓励观众点赞、订阅频道,并点击链接以获取Mumu和Weeoo提供的免费股票。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡小盘股
💡市盈率(PE)
💡Russell 2000
💡联邦储备(Fed)
💡并购活动
💡CEO信心
💡盈利增长
💡估值
💡利率削减周期
💡英伟达(Nvidia)
💡AMD
Highlights
Tomley 对整体市场特别是小盘股非常看好。
他认为市场底部已经在8月初出现。
预计小盘股到年底可能上涨40%。
小盘股的市盈率中位数可能从10倍上升到14倍。
小盘股因美联储紧缩政策而被忽视,现在政策开始正常化。
并购活动增加,这将增强小盘股的表现。
小盘股的CEO信心指数上升,这对小盘股是有利的。
Russell 2000的中位数盈利增长率比标普500快700个基点。
小盘股的估值更低,增长更好。
市场相信美联储将开始降息周期时,小盘股将受益。
小盘股的40%上涨并不意味着其他市场部分会下跌。
市场正在扩大,风险回报分析对小盘股有利。
不需要美联储大幅降息,市场只需相信利率将回归中性。
Nvidia的盈利对美国经济的生产力推动至关重要。
Nvidia的股价并不高,长期看仍是买入的好时机。
AMD通过收购ZT系统来与Nvidia竞争,这是其两个月内的第二次收购。
AMD的CEO积极收购,提升公司竞争力。
投资建议:研究Russell 2000的前三大持股,选择适合自己投资风险的股票。
Transcripts
Tomley is extremely bullish on the
overall Market especially small cap take
a quick look at this video of him
explaining his reason why joining me now
is fun Strat co-founder managing partner
Tom Lee Tom good to have you back uh now
I know you're saying that the bottom is
in for the market from that early August
move I'm still fixated on your
expectations for small caps been talking
about them a bit in this hour through
the rest of the Year you still think
that they could go up40 % by year
end uh yes John you know for small caps
to rise 40% means that the PE the median
Russell 2000 stock goes from 10 times to
14 times so it's not asking the market
to provide some magic and a huge
revaluation it's actually just saying
small cap stocks which have been left
for dead largely because the fed's been
tight for almost two years as they start
to normalize policy and as mergers pick
up you know its merger activity has been
accelerating this year and it it should
really strengthen because it's a sinus
CEO confidence all of these flow through
to benefit small cap stocks and it's not
like smaller companies are growing
slower I know people post all these
stats about small caps losing money it's
mainly because of the biotech components
basically don't make money and that's
the largest uh cohort of stocks in the
Russell but the Russell 2000 median
earnings growth is almost 700 basis
points faster than the S&P and Topline
growth growth is almost 400 basis points
so you're getting better growth lower
valuation and I think the catalyst is
now when the market is convinced the FED
is embarking on a rate cutting cycle
okay happen Friday okay so if if a 40%
upward move happens for say the Russell
2000 what happens for Mega caps what
happens for the broader S&P 500 do you
expect them to have similarly dramatic
moves or uh is there a major rotation
that you're expecting well well um John
we've already SE witnessed this happen
in large caps uh nvidia's risen 40% in
eight trading days so when someone says
the Russell 2000 which is made of of
even cheaper companies can't rise 40% in
the next five months they're forgetting
that we've already seen huge moves in
the mega caps I don't think the mega
caps have to go down do you expect it to
happen in isolation with the small caps
is what I'm getting I know that nvidia's
done that some other stocks have done
that themselves but if you're talking
about all of the small you know the
small caps as an index moving up that
much what do these other things
do well I think that a 40% move in small
caps doesn't mean the rest of the market
goes down I just think that's going to
highlight that the market is broadening
which is something we all expect but
it's also basically doing a risk reward
analysis which is look I I think if you
can get 18% earnings growth and pay 10
times earnings perhaps that's a good
risk reward and and I think money that's
on the sidelines or people who've been
thinking bonds are going to be and cash
are is a place you want to stick for the
next five years but if the FED starts
cutting they're going to look for places
where there's good risk reward and I
think that's small caps do you me do you
need dramatic cuts for that thesis to
pan out are there other potholes in the
road that you see that that threaten
your
thesis well uh a recession would be
negative um I don't think the FED has to
make major cuts it actually just has to
I think the market narrative that would
be the best for small caps is the belief
that real interest rates are too tight
now you know five and a half percent
versus inflation trending towards two
and getting rates back down to a neutral
rate of 3% if the market believes that
they don't need the cuts to be front and
loaded but they have to believe we're
going back towards neutral I think
that'd be a huge Catalyst for small caps
okay now let me ask you about uh more
about Mega caps and about the consumer
how
important not necessarily just to small
caps but to the whole Market narrative
will Nvidia earnings next week
be uh well Nvidia is really important
because it's underpinning really what is
driving the US economy which is a real
push towards productivity uh using
basically digital tools and automation
that's a very important defl
disinflationary Trend and of course the
US companies all of the big ones are all
in the US I mean it's a global phenomena
that benefits us companies so I think
it's incredibly important uh but Nvidia
you know trading at 26 times for
earnings isn't that demanding a stock
either so it's not like I would say sell
Nvidia to buy small caps I think Nvidia
is still a long-term buy I think the
strategy here is to find the top three
Holdings in the Russell 2000 and see
which one fit your investment risk
especially biotech and then you can pick
one you like okay I'll go long-term on
this one for the RIS and see if I can do
a small trade to year end and see if you
can capture some of that 40% from that
individual stock or you can actually
play the whole sector another stock I
want to cover is AMD they have been
making a big push to cast to Nvidia as a
CEO your job is to Pivot and follow the
trend in your industry so I applaud Le
to sue for doing that AMD agreed to pay
$5 billion to buy ZT system a designer
of data center equipment for cloud
computing and artificial intelligence
the deal was made to compete with Nvidia
and acquire customers like meta and moft
and more and this is like their second
acquisition in spin of like two months
so I really like that by the CEO going
out there acquiring and making the
company better and trying to compete
with Nidia because at the end of the day
they definitely need to catch up please
make sure to do your research and
consult your financial adviser don't
forget to like And subscribe to the
channel and click on the link below for
some free stocks from Mumu and Weeoo
thank you for tuning in and see you next
time folks
Browse More Related Video
✨【投资TALK君1109期】上蹿下跳英伟达;有钱能使美联储推磨;NICK聊通胀和就业✨20240625#NFP#通胀#美股#美联储#CPI#美国房价#btc#比特币
Assets Continue Higher led by Bitcoin and Russell
✨【投资TALK君1108期】美股下半年展望;英伟达的风险!✨20240623#NFP#通胀#美股#美联储#CPI#美国房价#btc#比特币
✨【投资TALK君1131期】8月美股开门暴跌,衰退来了?如何应对这次下跌✨20240801#cpi #nvda #美股 #投资 #英伟达 #ai #特斯拉
The bull and bear cases for Tesla's position in the Magnificent 7
📉 The Extreme Bearish Argument: Will It Happen This Time?
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)