Bitcoin: The Beauty of Mathematics (Part 45)
Summary
TLDR视频脚本主要讨论了加密货币市场的价值评估,指出市场经历了被低估和被高估的阶段。目前市场略高于公允价值,但这并不意味着市场会立即下跌。比特币在市场中的主导地位不断上升,资本大量流入比特币,而其他加密货币(altcoin)并未达到新高。视频中还提到了货币政策和利率变化对市场的影响,以及比特币在不同经济周期中的表现。最后,视频以对未来市场趋势的乐观态度结束,暗示加密货币市场的终极目标是达到10万亿美元的市值。
Takeaways
- 📈 **市场估值波动**:市场经历了被低估和被高估的阶段,但这些阶段的持续时间并不相同,有的更持久。
- 📉 **历史周期回顾**:在2019年和2012年年末,市场曾短暂进入高估区域后回落,这与2020年2月市场大跌前的情况相似。
- 🔍 **当前市场状态**:目前市场略微高估,但这并不意味着市场会立即回落到公允价值。
- 🚦 **比特币与山寨币**:资本大量流入比特币,导致比特币创下新高,而许多山寨币并未达到新高。
- 💹 **比特币的主导地位**:比特币的市场份额不断增加,这与利率上升周期中比特币的强势表现相符合。
- 📊 **市场趋势**:尽管市场会有波动,但长期趋势是上升的,即使在2018年、2022年和2014年等困难时期。
- ⏳ **耐心等待**:尽管许多人期待牛市的到来,但比特币仍在继续增加市场份额,目前尚未达到降息周期。
- 🤔 **未来展望**:市场可能会在降息后有所冷却,但这也取决于比特币对降息的反应。
- ⏰ **周期性波动**:历史上,比特币在4月份达到局部顶部后可能会有所回落,但每次情况可能不同。
- 📌 **长期目标**:最终目标是达到10万亿美元市值,尽管这可能会有几万亿的波动。
- 🧐 **市场复杂性**:尽管可以深入分析市场的每一个细节,但有时退一步,从宏观角度审视市场趋势更为重要。
Q & A
当前加密货币市场是否被高估?
-根据脚本内容,当前加密货币市场已经略微超过了公允价值,处于轻微的高估状态。
高估是否意味着市场会立即下跌?
-不一定。市场可能在高估区域停留数月甚至数年,所以即使当前市场被认为高估,也不意味着它会立即下跌。
比特币和以太坊目前的价格表现如何?
-比特币目前达到了新高点,大约在70.5k美元左右,而以太坊和其他大部分前10的加密货币并没有达到新高。
资本在比特币和山寨币市场之间是如何流动的?
-有大量的资本流入比特币,而从山寨币市场流出。尽管山寨币在美元对中表现尚可,但许多资本已经转移到比特币。
为什么在利率上升周期中应该重视比特币?
-在利率上升周期中,比特币的市场份额通常会增加,因此在这一时期重仓比特币而不是以太坊或其他山寨币可能更有意义。
利率削减后,哪些类型的加密货币可能会表现更好?
-在利率削减后,一些更高风险的加密货币,如山寨币,可能会开始迎头赶上,表现出色。
市场趋势的一般方向是什么?
-尽管短期内会有波动,但长期来看,加密货币市场的一般趋势是上升的。
2019年比特币的主导地位如何变化?
-在2019年的牛市中,比特币的主导地位上升,并进入了高估区域。
当前比特币的主导地位如何?
-目前比特币的主导地位在增加,这与之前的市场趋势相似,表明比特币在市场上的份额正在增长。
如何理解市场估值的公允价值和对数回归趋势线?
-公允价值的对数回归趋势线是根据所有数据拟合得出的,当前市场略微高于这个趋势线,这意味着市场目前被轻微高估。
加密货币市场的最终目标是什么?
-脚本中提到,加密货币市场的最终目标是达到10万亿美元市值,或许上下浮动几万亿。
为什么有时市场会在4月份之后降温?
-根据历史模式,市场在4月份之后可能会因为多种因素,包括季节性趋势和市场周期,而出现降温。
Outlines
📈 加密货币市场估值波动与比特币主导地位
本段讨论了加密货币市场经历的低估和高估阶段,指出市场并非总是一成不变,而是存在更持久的低估和高估时期。2019年和2012年市场曾短暂高估后回落。目前市场略为高估,但这并不意味着会立即回归公允价值。强调在低估时逐步增加投资,在高估时逐步减少。提到比特币和以太坊等主要加密货币的市场表现,以及比特币在市场中的主导地位及其对其他加密货币的影响。还讨论了货币政策和利率变动对市场的影响,以及比特币在不同经济周期中的表现。
🌐 加密货币市场趋势与投资策略
这段内容强调了在分析加密货币市场时,除了关注短期细节外,还应该从宏观角度审视市场趋势。市场有其波动,但长期趋势是上升的。作者提到了历史上的一些市场恐慌期,如2014年、2018年和2020年的三月,但强调了回顾整体市场趋势的重要性。讨论了比特币主导地位的变化,以及它在不同经济周期中的表现。作者还提到了市场估值与公允价值的关系,以及如何根据市场估值来调整投资策略。最后,作者提出了对加密货币市场未来的乐观看法,认为市场最终目标是达到10万亿美元的市值。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡市场估值
💡比特币
💡山寨币
💡市场主导地位
💡对数增长趋势线
💡利率周期
💡货币理论
💡资本流动
💡市场趋势
💡风险管理
💡市场周期
Highlights
市场目前处于轻微高估状态,但并不意味着市场会立即回归到公允价值。
市场可能在高估或低估区域停留数月甚至数年。
2019年市场曾短暂高估,随后回落到低估区域。
2012年末市场高估,直到次年初才回落。
目前市场刚刚超过公允价值对数增长趋势线,上次超过是在2020年末。
比特币正在达到新高,而许多其他加密货币并未达到新高。
比特币的市值占比正在上升,资本大量流入比特币。
在利率上升周期中,比特币相对于其他加密货币表现更好。
市场趋势长期向上,尽管短期内可能会有波动。
市场在2018年、2022年和2014年经历了一些可怕的阶段。
比特币市值与公允价值的百分比差异显示我们再次超过公允价值。
市场对利率变化的反应将决定高估期的持续时间。
比特币在2019年的4月达到局部顶部,但直到6月才真正回落。
市场在每个周期的反应可能不同,如2017年一旦高估,就持续了6个月。
市场可能会在利率削减后冷却,然后在第四季度重新活跃。
比特币在上一个周期中随着利率削减的到来而逐渐回落。
市场最终目标是达到10万亿美元市值。
Transcripts
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of approximately 8% now we have followed
this for a long time and we've said
previously that the general idea is
going through undervaluation phases and
overvaluation phases now not All
undervaluation Phases and overvaluation
phases are the same there are more
durable periods where we are undervalued
and more durable periods where we were
overvalued there were there was a period
in 2019 where we went over valued for a
few months and then came back down to
the undervaluation territory until the
end of the having Year in
2012 we went overvalued and then we
actually came back down until the end or
at least until the the beginning of the
post having year so currently we are
slightly overvalued now when we talk
about overvalued that doesn't mean you
know that the market has to immediately
drop to the fair value
as you can see we can spend months if
not years in the overvaluation territory
so it's important to recognize that you
go from undervaluation to
overvaluation and the general idea is to
scale in at undervaluation and to scale
out at
overvaluation understanding that
undervaluation and overvaluation can
take years to ultimately play out now
currently we have just gone above the
fair value logarithmic aggression trend
line last time we did that was late 2020
and you can see that we had a more
durable overvaluation period the time
before that was just before you know
February 2020 we had a a pretty bad
crash after that and the time before
that was November or sorry April of 2019
where it stayed overvalued uh basically
until the end of the year right until
about Q4 or so of that year so
definitely uh different times um in the
cryptoverse will will sort of lead to
more dur moves above the overvaluation
above the fair value log than the
congression trend line and other periods
only get you slightly above it either
way I think it makes sense to have a
plan and I just wanted to sort of
present that hey we are now technically
overvalued um after being undervalued
essentially since um June of 2022 right
undervaluation starting June 2022 and
now we find ourselves back to being over
what's interesting and we talked about
this before is that there has been a
large rotation of capital um into
Bitcoin and a way from the altcoin
market alts are still doing okay on
their USD pairs but a lot of that
Capital has gone into Bitcoin and you
can find evidence for that in the in the
reality that Bitcoin is currently
sitting in new highs uh well it is while
I'm making this video maybe by the time
that um this video comes out the the
price of Bitcoin will be different right
now it's at at around 70k 70.5k just
sort of pull it up
70.5k U by the time you watch this video
of course it it could be different could
be lower could be higher I don't know um
but while while Bitcoin is at a new high
a lot of altcoins are not right and we
know that ethereum is not and basically
most of the top 10 if not I mean if not
basically all of them um I'm not sure if
there's one but I mean a lot of them are
just not at highs and a lot of them are
even nowhere close to being at highs and
that's kind of why we focused so much
and we continue to focus on on the
dominance of Bitcoin and why it makes
sense you know through you know during
QT and and and rate hikes
uh late rate hi late late rate late rate
hiking cycle to be heavy Bitcoin as
opposed to um heavy eth or something
like that and then after rate Cuts occur
then some of those higher risk stuff can
then start to to catch back up but we
haven't reached that stage yet I mean I
know it's a long wait and I I know a lot
of people keep front running the
theoretical offseason that they want but
the reality is that you know Bitcoin
continues to take more and more market
share as the Bitcoin dominance goes
higher
and as we've gone from being undervalued
to being overvalued okay and again
sometimes I just look at the chart and
just kind of stare at it and say you
know what we can over complicate things
by looking at the nitty-gritty details
and you know we sort of do that we look
at what's happening on the lower time
frames a lot but at the end of the day
you know for everyone sanity just
sometimes take a step back and look at
the General market trend there are going
to be good times in the future there are
going to be bad times in the future the
General market
trend is up over a long enough period of
time you can have some pretty scary
phases March 2020 basically all of
2022 a lot of 2018 a lot of 2014 right I
mean even even in in late 2015 we had
another scare right so I mean those
phases can of course happen and when
they do just remember the General market
Trend right go back to that and you know
I tried to couple this
with sort of dominance and and Bitcoin
dominance and then monetary Theory or
monetary policy and and and just kind of
trying to understand which
cryptocurrencies are going to outperform
and through a lot of these prior phases
right this whole bull market right here
in 2019 Bitcoin dominance went up and I
went well into overvaluation territory
um and guess what during this whole
rally Bitcoin dominance has mostly gone
up right and again during late rate
hiking cycle uh very very familiar in
fact so again this is a more General
view if you take the percent difference
from the market cap and the fair value
log the congression trend line you get
something looks like this
um so you can see we've gone again above
the fair value and the last time that
occurred U you can see the different
times that it occurred and sometimes we
go overvalued for a long time and then
other times it is much more shorter
lived and so you know whether it's going
to be shorter lived or not I think will
ultimately depend on the reaction of
Bitcoin as we go into rate Cuts right
there have been a lot of instances where
Bitcoin finds a local top in April that
doesn't mean that it has to this time
time in 2019 in fact it rallied until
June right and we know the First Rate
cut might not occur until June maybe
it'll even get pushed out further than
that or maybe it'll be may but a lot of
times there's reason to think that the
market could cool off and sort of after
the having you can see it cooled off
after the H or after April in 2013 it
cooled off after April in 2021 and even
last year you know we did sweep the high
in June but it still more or less cooled
off with the exception of that one week
where we back up it was still a fair
fairly boring summer and and not until
Q4 arrived did the market get back into
gear same thing in 2013 it wasn't until
Q4 arrived really that the market really
got back into gear so you know whether
it is a brief overvaluation period or
not I think is going to be dependent on
on what Bitcoin does going into those
rate Cuts because you know last cycle we
saw it we saw Bitcoin Fade Into rate
cuts um
I mean you can see that fairly clearly
right here as the rate Cuts arrived we
saw Bitcoin sort of fade into it and if
that repeats itself then you could get a
shorter period of overvaluation kind of
like 2019 or you know late 2011 or even
February 2020 and then you go back to
being undervalued and then you get done
another move later on right we've seen
that happen a lot Counterpoint though in
2017 once we went overvalued we didn't
really look back for another 6 months so
definitely a lot of things to consider
but that is you know what the chart
looks like right now technically
slightly overvalued based on the data
that's fit to all data right the the
logarithmic regression trend line is fit
to all data um so it's not what I think
it's just hey this is the fit to all
data and currently we are slightly above
it business as usual
right nothing has changed so those are
the general that's the general Trend
here of the cryptoverse and of course I
mean I've said before I think the
ultimate um the ultimate goal is is 10
trillion uh plus or minus a few
trillion and as we go to sleep at night
we cannot help a wonder what's a few
trillion dollars among friends thank you
guys for tuning in I'll see you next
time bye
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