10 Overvalued Players You Must Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts (2024)
Summary
TLDRIn this fantasy football analysis, the speaker identifies seven players to avoid in drafts due to their current Average Draft Position (ADP), including Devonte Adams and Stefon Diggs. The discussion covers concerns like team changes, age, injuries, and quarterback situations, suggesting that these factors could negatively impact the players' performances. The speaker emphasizes the importance of value in drafting and offers alternative options for a more strategic approach.
Takeaways
- π Devonte Adams is being drafted too early in fantasy football, with his current ADP being top 20 while the speaker ranks him 32nd overall.
- π The Raiders' quarterback situation is a concern for Adams' fantasy value, with no significant improvement during the offseason.
- π The addition of Brock Bowers, a tight end, could lead to more target competition for Adams, potentially decreasing his value.
- π Austin Eckler's move to the Washington Commanders and his age might reduce his fantasy output, especially with a new mobile quarterback.
- π« The Commanders' offensive strategy under Cliff Kingsberry might not favor Eckler, who is known for his receiving skills.
- π Keenan Allen's change to the Chicago Bears and the presence of other strong receivers could decrease his target share and fantasy production.
- π€ The draft of a top wide receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr. could impact Trey McBride's target volume and touchdown opportunities with the Cardinals.
- β‘ Stefon Diggs' age and the presence of other talented receivers on his new team might affect his fantasy performance negatively.
- π CJ Stroud's lack of rushing upside and the potential struggles of the Texans' offensive line could limit his fantasy quarterback value.
- β T.J. Hockenson's recovery from a serious knee injury and the uncertainty at the quarterback position for the Minnesota Vikings make him a risky pick.
Q & A
Why does the speaker believe Devonte Adams should not be drafted as a top 20 player in fantasy football?
-The speaker believes Devonte Adams should not be drafted as a top 20 player because he is ranked as the 32nd overall player on the fantasy blueprint, and drafting him as the 17th overall player, as is currently happening, could ruin an entire draft strategy due to the significant difference in ranking.
What was the main issue for Devonte Adams during the offseason according to the transcript?
-The main issue for Devonte Adams during the offseason was that the Raiders did not improve their quarterback position and instead drafted Brock Bowers, a tight end, which increased target competition for Adams, potentially worsening his fantasy value.
What are the concerns regarding the Raiders' quarterback situation for Devonte Adams?
-The concerns are that the Raiders' quarterback situation is not strong, with Aiden O'Connor, a second-year player who had a poor rookie year, and Garner Mchu, who ranks low in quarterback efficiency and has a history of interceptable passes.
How does Antonio Pierce's coaching philosophy impact Devonte Adams' potential fantasy performance?
-Antonio Pierce's coaching philosophy favors running the ball in all situations, even when trailing, which could limit the pass rate and, consequently, the target opportunities for Devonte Adams, negatively impacting his fantasy performance.
Why does the speaker think Austin Ekeler is being drafted too early?
-The speaker thinks Austin Ekeler is being drafted too early because his new team, the Washington Commanders, may not use him in a workhorse role, and his production has declined with age and changing team dynamics.
What are the potential issues with drafting Keenan Allen in his current ADP?
-The potential issues with drafting Keenan Allen in his current ADP include his aging status, a change of teams with new coaching staff, and increased competition for targets with the addition of new players like Romad Dunbar.
Why might Trey McBride's target share decrease in the upcoming season?
-Trey McBride's target share might decrease due to the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., a top pick in the NFL draft, who is expected to draw significant targets, as well as the return of healthy teammates like Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson.
What concerns does the speaker have about Stefon Diggs' role in the Texans' offense?
-The speaker is concerned that Stefon Diggs might have to move into the slot, which could result in him coming off the field in certain situations and not earning as many targets, especially with the presence of young, talented receivers like Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
Why is the speaker skeptical about drafting CJ Stroud as a top-five quarterback?
-The speaker is skeptical about drafting CJ Stroud as a top-five quarterback because he lacks rushing upside, which could limit his overall fantasy points, and there are concerns about the Texans' offensive line and pass rate.
What are the reasons for the speaker's low ranking of T.J. Hockenson in the current fantasy football draft?
-The speaker ranks T.J. Hockenson low due to his multi-ligament knee injury late in the previous season, which might cause him to miss a significant part of the new season, and the change in the Vikings' quarterback situation, which could affect his target share and production.
Outlines
π Devonte Adams: Overvalued in Fantasy Drafts
The first paragraph discusses the overvaluation of wide receiver Davante Adams in fantasy football drafts. Despite being a top-20 pick, the speaker believes Adams should be ranked lower, at 32nd overall, due to his current quarterback situation with the Raiders and the addition of tight end Brock Bowers, which increases target competition. The Raiders' draft strategy and Adams's past performance with different quarterbacks are analyzed, suggesting that his early draft position could negatively impact a fantasy team's overall strategy.
π Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen: Changing Teams and Diminishing Value
The second paragraph addresses the potential pitfalls of drafting Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen too early. Ekeler, moving to the Washington Commanders, may not receive the same workload as before, given his age and the team's investment in him. Keenan Allen, now with the Chicago Bears, faces uncertainty due to a new team and coaching staff, as well as increased competition for targets with the drafting of new talent. Both players are considered to be going in drafts earlier than the speaker would recommend, based on their expected roles and team dynamics.
πͺ Trey McBride: High Draft Position Despite Target Competition
In the third paragraph, the speaker questions the wisdom of drafting tight end Trey McBride in the fourth round, given his breakout performance in only 10 games last season. The addition of Harrison Jr., a top draft pick, to the Cardinals' roster is expected to increase target competition, potentially limiting McBride's opportunities. The speaker suggests that other tight ends, such as Dalton Schultz and Evan Engram, may offer better value at later positions in the draft.
π€ Stefon Diggs and C.J. Strad: Overhyped Fantasy Picks
The fourth paragraph delves into the potential overvaluation of wide receiver Stefon Diggs and quarterback C.J. Strad in fantasy drafts. Diggs, despite being a solid player, is expected to face stiff competition for targets on his new team, which could affect his fantasy output. Strad, while having had a good rookie season, is drafted as a top-five quarterback, ahead of more mobile quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray, who the speaker believes have higher ceilings. Concerns about the Texans' offensive line and the potential for a more run-heavy approach are also raised.
β T.J. Hockenson: Risky Draft Pick Following Injury
The final paragraph warns against drafting tight end T.J. Hockenson, who suffered a significant knee injury late last season. The injury's severity and timing raise concerns about his ability to recover in time for the new season, and the change in his team's quarterback situation from Kirk Cousins to a less proven combination could affect his target share and production. The speaker places Hockenson much lower in their rankings than the current consensus, suggesting that other tight ends offer better value at later draft positions.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Fantasy Football
π‘ADP (Average Draft Position)
π‘Devonte Adams
π‘Quarterback Situation
π‘Target Competition
π‘Austin Ekeler
π‘Multi-Ligament Injury
π‘Rookie Quarterback
π‘Efficiency
π‘Red Zone
π‘RB (Running Back)
Highlights
Devonte Adams is overvalued in fantasy football drafts, being picked as a top 20 player while the speaker ranks him 32nd overall.
The Raiders' quarterback situation is a significant concern for Adams' fantasy value, with no significant improvement during the offseason.
The selection of tight end Brock Bowers in the draft increases target competition for Adams, potentially reducing his value.
Austin Ekeler's move to the Washington Commanders and his age could diminish his fantasy output compared to previous seasons.
Ekeler's guaranteed contract money suggests he won't be the workhorse back, impacting his fantasy draft position.
Keenan Allen's change to the Chicago Bears and the presence of other strong receivers could reduce his target share.
Trey McBride's breakout season might not be sustainable with increased competition for targets on the Cardinals.
Stefon Diggs' age and the presence of other talented receivers on his new team make his current ADP questionable.
CJ Stroud's current draft position as a top-five quarterback is debated, considering his lack of rushing upside.
T.J. Hockenson's recovery from a serious knee injury and the change in quarterback could significantly impact his fantasy value.
The speaker offers a fantasy blueprint tool to help with drafting strategies, including risk-free access if the user doesn't make the playoffs.
The importance of considering a player's situation, team dynamics, and injury history when evaluating their fantasy football draft value is emphasized.
The quarterback play and offensive schemes are critical in determining a wide receiver's fantasy success.
The addition of new players through the draft or free agency can significantly alter a player's fantasy landscape.
Aging players and their physical condition should be considered, especially after serious injuries like ACL tears.
The market's perception of a player's value might not align with a detailed analysis of their situation and potential.
Transcripts
today we are discussing seven players
that I believe you must avoid in fantasy
football based on where they're
currently going in drafts right now and
this one hurts to say but I think
Devonte Adams belongs on that list
because he's currently going as a top 20
player and again it might sound crazy to
say this but that is wrong because as
you could see at the top of the fantasy
blueprint right here I currently have
Adams as my 32nd overall player he goes
as the 17th overall player that's a 15
spot difference and you just can't be
taking these types of players that early
in drafts it'll ruin your entire draft
and there's a lot that goes into this
and let's start to break it down Adams
might have been the biggest loser this
entire off season out of any player for
Fantasy because the Raiders were
basically the only team that really
didn't get an improvement at the
quarterback position in the entire NFL
you can see right here this was the NFL
draft and there's a ton of quarterbacks
taken the first three picks were
quarterbacks and if you just keep
scrolling another quarterback at pick
number eight and Michael penck JJ
McCarthy at 10 and Bo Nicks at number 12
these six quarterbacks are all taken
before the Raiders pick at pick 13 so
they couldn't get one of these guys that
maybe one of these rookies improves the
quarterback position for them and
instead they got brought Bowers out of
Georgia a tight end who is one of the
best tight ends if not the best tight
end we've ever seen in college football
and what he does is bring even more
Target competition to the receiver room
so if anything just this first round
pick in not being a quarterback and
actually being Brock Bowers hurts
Devonte Adams it actually got worse for
him not better as a lot of people
expected maybe it would get better with
a quarterback so now this leaves Devonte
in a pretty crappy spot because the
quarterback situation is not great it
wasn't great last year now Jimmy G is
even gone here's what we're currently
working with in the Raiders quarterback
room Aiden okono a second-year player
who did not have a good rookie year he's
coming back and then they signed Garner
mchi to a 2-year deal didn't give him a
ton of guaranteed money he ranks like
30th in quarterback guaranteed money so
like this is a terrible situation now
Adams did actually averaged 15.8 points
per game and 11.2 targets per game with
Aiden okono last year and those are
solid numbers but he is also a solid
wide receiver he basically had the same
production with Jimmy G it's not like
Aiden oconnell was fueling Devonte Adams
performances if anything he was harming
them because as you can see right here
on player profiler aen oono in
quarterback efficiency his yards per
10th ranked 27th amongst all
quarterbacks then you scroll down to his
accuracy his true completion percentage
was 24th and this got even worse when he
was targeting balls downfield 20 plus
yards and under pressure and then
there's mchu who was kind of productive
in the Colts offense last year but
basically it was because of the way it
was coached by Shane siken they gave him
easy completions but despite that mchu
was still 25th in quarterback efficiency
and through the fourth most
interceptable passes and then another
knock against Devonte Adams is his coach
Antonio pierce his philosophy is to run
the ball a couple of times at postgame
press conferences last year he was like
visibly upset when his running back
didn't get 20 plus carries and across
the N9 games with Antonio Pierce as the
interm head coach last year the Raiders
ranked 20th in neutral pass rate and
even when they were trailing by seven or
more they still ranked in the bottom 10
in pass rate all that basically
translates to Antonio Pierce loves to
run the ball in all situations even if
they're trailing by over seven points
now as for the Target competition it's
basically going to be pretty similar
outside of Brock Bowers being added in
you're going to get jacobe Myers who was
pretty quietly a successful wide
receiver last year in this offense he
was averaging nearly seven targets per
game and was one of the most consistent
producers on a weekly basis for Fantasy
more specifically Myers had at least 11
fantasy points in 63% of his games
that's up there with like some of the
tops in the league in terms of
consistency and then we don't even have
to get into the fact that he is an aging
receiver at 31 so Devonte Adams right
now going as the 17th overall player I
just think it's way too soon it's one to
two rounds earlier all these guys who
currently go after him I would just much
rather have in drafts you have guys like
Derk Henry and a couple of other pieces
if we were to scroll up definitely guys
like Malik neighbors Chris will get into
some of these pieces now let's move from
the wide receiver position and talk
about a running back who you've all
loved in fantasy for years I'm sure and
that takes us back to the fantasy
blueprint at the top here we're going to
talk about Austin Eckler Who currently
goes as the 91st overall player in round
eight I am 21 spots later I think he
goes two rounds way too early and now if
you don't know and you're not familiar
or caught up ackler is no longer a
charger he's now on the Washington
commanders he signed a two-year deal
with them this offseason and more
specifically that two-year deal it's
worth about $8 million but if you scroll
over to the guaranteed money just $4
million guaranteed across two years
that's $2 million per year which is like
a little bit better than your average
backup money which I bring this up
because this indicates that Eckler's not
going to be put in any work type role
and that probably makes sense based on
what we saw last year he's now 29 years
old and last year he averages 3.3 yards
per carry that was 62nd in the NFL which
is not great at all and there's a lot of
things that went into this Eckler was
hurt to start the season his offensive
line was hurt during parts of the Year
Justin Herbert his quarterback was hurt
as well but there was still a
significant drop in production when he
was healthy and you could see right here
a big piece was just the drop in
everything his reception's going from
107 or even 70 the year before that to
just 51 that's a massive drop and
honestly we might not even see 51 this
year based on the offense that he's in
because now he has a mobile rookie
quarterback and Jaden Daniels and those
types of guys will take off and run
instead of checking it down and also
Austin Eckler might not see 13 carries
per game this year because he's not
going to be the starter in my opinion in
Washington and then another thing to
bring up is that Cliff kingsberry is the
new offensive coordinator for Washington
and if we scroll down here as a coach in
the NFL he spent four seasons with the
Arizona Cardinals 2019 to 2022 a lot of
people know him in college as a guy who
passed the ball a lot the air rate
offense but in the NFL he actually ranks
below average in pass rate he's more so
running compared to the other teams in
the league and for a guy in Eckler who's
known for paying off in the receiving
department and scoring touchdowns this
mobile quarterback and now an offensive
coordinator who doesn't really pass the
ball a lot to his running backs these
things are some concerns and not only
does kingsberry not Target running backs
in the receiving game neither did jayen
Daniels last year in college these are
the running backs last year for Daniels
the leading Target earner in college was
15 targets 10 targets if you add these
all up he only targeted his running
backs 8% of the time which is well below
the college average and like I said I
don't believe he's going to be the
starting running back this year I think
that's going to be Brian Robinson
profiles out more like a Workhorse back
average over 14 opportunities per game
last year and it was actually pretty
good he was top 10 in yards created per
touch in 2023 so I prefer to just pass
on Austin Eckler when I'm looking at him
in the eighth round right now there's a
ton of guys I'd rather have before him
as I scroll up here you can see all of
these names basically every single
person above here I would rather have
James Conor lad makoni Calvin Ridley
Christian Watson these are guys who are
going in the same range as allus Eckler
especially Christian Watson I'd rather
have now let's move back to the wide
receiver position we're talking about
another beloved veteran and it is the
former charger Keenan Allen again if
you're not familiar he is no longer on
the charger and this one actually hurts
because I always love Keenan Allen he's
been one of the most reliable receivers
in the NFL but as you can see in the
fantasy blueprint his ADP his average
draft position is 50th he's a top 50
player overall this year he's my 67th
overall player so I'm 17 spots behind
the market one to two rounds early in my
opinion is how Keenan Allen goes too
early and it seems crazy to say this
because just a year ago even though he
was 31 and an aging receiver he was
still highly productive I mean the dude
had 150 targets last year despite
missing like three to four games and his
11 and a half targets per game as you
can see right here on Player Pro
profiler led the entire NFL but it
wasn't just the volume that was crazy he
was also efficient ranking 11th in wide
receiver efficiency and second in the
entire NFL and first stre Target chair
which is pretty predictive of your
future success this dude Keenan Allen
was and always has been a stud so what
is the issue well he's changing teams
he's now in the Chicago bearers and as
an aging veteran changing teams this
could be a concern are you going to be
used in the right ways do the team does
the team have any emotional or other
connections to you to want to put you in
there over some other guys and not only
is it a new team but it's a new team
with a brand new coaching staff and an
offensive coordinator coming in now that
offensive coordinator is Shane Waldren
he comes over from Seattle he spent time
with the Rams as well but as you can see
from Seattle from 2021 to 2023 it was
the offensive coordinator each of the
past two seasons he's ranked top 10 in
neutral pass rat so this guy does like
to throw the ball when the game is close
so in theory this team should throw the
ball more this year and their offseason
moves have kind of proved that they
drafted the first overall pick
quarterback Caleb Williams they traded
for Kean and Allen himself and then they
drafted a top 10 wide receiver pick in
romad dunza but this last point is where
the issue comes in or at least starts to
come in for Keenan Allen when we talk
about romad dun and adun is the type of
prospect the top 10 overall pick Elite
athlete overall producer in college this
is the type a guy who gets on the field
right away as a rookie with that draft
capital and produces and if you're not
familiar he spent time at Washington
Four Seasons there and last year he had
his massive season of over 1,500 total
yards and the guy just won everywhere at
the line of scrimmage downfield and
after the catch and I think that adun is
going to play an outside receiver role
for Chicago soon if not right away for
the team and if that's the case he might
take snaps away from Keenan Allen and in
fantasy drafts so doing actually goes 38
picks later but it doesn't just stop at
a dunesday because DJ Moore is also
there who's been on this team and last
year he had a career year with over
1,300 total yards despite playing with
an inaccurate quarterback in Justin
fields and Moore is definitely going to
start he's going to play on the outside
so if ad dun actually can get some
outside receiver snaps then you get
Keenan Allen coming off the field which
just means less overall Targets in
production maybe that happens maybe it
doesn't but if I just scroll up to the
guys I'd rather have in this range give
me Terry McClaren all day over Keenan
Allen and I can scroll up even more guys
like Amari Cooper I want over Keenan Al
definitely tanked out these guys are
going after him currently even Christian
Kirk all right now let's discuss our
first tight end of this video and hey if
you're finding this video helpful so far
make sure you're subscribed to the
channel just double check now this
brings us to the Cardinals tight end
Trey McBride who had one of the better
seasons of all the tight ends in the NFL
last year and he basically did it in
just 10 games now right now Trey McBride
goes as the 43rd overall player he's
taken often in the fourth round of
drafts and in my opinion that is too
early I have him as my 55th overall
player he goes about round a little bit
more than around early in my opinion and
let's discuss this like I said he B
basically broke out in just 10 games
last year because he really didn't get
on the field seeing a lot more snaps at
least like over 70% until week eight and
then right away almost instantly in week
eight the guy breaks out over 25 fantasy
points look at this 10 receptions 95
yards a touchdown 14 targets a massive
14 targets he was the dude and from this
point on according to ROV VI's game log
tracker right here his final 10 games of
the year basically averag 15 fantasy
points per game eight and a half targets
per game he was easily one of the best
tight ends in all of fantasy during the
stretch now all of this is great but it
lacks context because during that time
Maris Brown was hurt and he was really
just competing with guys like Greg dorch
and Michael Wilson for targets and this
allowed McBride to slide in as the
number one option in this offense and
finish as the 42nd overall player during
those final 10 games which is solid
that's basically where he's going right
now in drafts and you can see that right
here he goes as the 46th overall player
so this is basically saying okay he'll
just continue his production from the
final 10 games last year but how can
that be the case if he now has much more
difficult Target competition because
with a top five pick in the NFL draft
Yeah top five pick not just a first
round pick the Cardinal selected
Harrison JR out of Ohio State one of the
best prospects in honestly the past 10
to 20 years to come out at the wide
receiver position I mean this dude is
being compared closely to guys like
Julio Jones and CD lamb when they were
prospects coming out of college and we
obviously know how their careers have
gone and did go now this is what Marvin
Harrison did in college his final two
years was at Ohio State a tough program
tough competition over 12200 yards each
year you can see in 2022 and 2023 had 14
touchdowns each year and he was doing
this while competing against a nuer
future number one receiver in in the NFL
or first round pick I should say and
amuka the dude is a legit threat the
second he steps on the football field
and yeah that's going to be an upgrade
in Target competition compared to what
Trey McBride was dealing with last year
but it doesn't stop there and now that
I'm thinking about it I think I
butchered aba's name so before you get
the Twitter fingers in the comments I
apologize for that because now he has to
compete with Marvin Harrison also those
two guys from last year Greg dor and
Michael Wilson but then there's Z Jones
which might not seem like a lot but when
you're adding this type of depth
receiver Z Jones who went healthy over
the past few years and seasons has been
a quality intermediate to downfield
receiver I think this is an upgrade from
a guy like Rond Del Moore who was with
the team last year so it means even more
tough competition for Trey McBride now
there is one key area where I can see
pretty obviously that McBride could pay
off this fourth round price tag and
that's the touchdowns Department in his
NFL career through two seasons just four
total touchdowns three last year one the
year before that if he could have like a
10 touchdown season well of course then
he could pay off this price tag but we
could say that with almost anyone and it
becomes more difficult to Envision that
when you have Kyler Murray out there
this was Kyler Murray last year just 13
Red Zone carries but he did this in just
eight games so he was seeing over one
Red Zone carry per game that's going to
hurt your tight ends upside in the red
zone now in my opinion right now there's
just no way that I could be drafted Trey
McBride as like the 43rd 44th overall
player I mean right now I would just
rather wait and get Dalton concade 10
picks later or wait even later than that
and you can scroll all the way down here
and start seeing some other tight ends
like Evan Ingram goes way later scroll
even more and you can wait on Jake
Ferguson like four to five rounds later
so maybe some guys I've brought up so
far in this video have made you upset
and I think this next guy might be the
guy who makes you the most upset in the
entire video and if it's not Stefon digs
it'll definitely be the next guy I'm
talking about so again those Twitter
fingers the comment fingers just hear me
out before we go all crazy because right
now Stefan digs goes as the 28th overall
player in drafts he's often taken in the
second or the early third round and
that's just way too early in my opinion
he's my 48th overall player I'm never
getting this guy I'm 20 rounds later
than ADP in the fantasy blueprint which
you can get down below if you want you
can get it for a risk-free offer right
now basically any single person can get
it absolutely risk- free we'll talk more
about it later but if you were to scroll
through here right now people are taking
Stefon Diggs after all these guys who go
after him Mike Evans Travis Kelce Derk
Henry Jaylen Wadd is a crazy one to me
and so was Devon Smith and DK mcaf I
mean this is all crazy now here's what
we know about he was traded to this team
he's on a one-year deal so he's
basically a rental as this team tries to
maximize the window that they have with
CJ st's rookie contract it makes sense
now that's all fair but it's just pretty
surprising to me to see that Nico
Collins goes in drafts as like the 20th
receiver Stefon digs like the 27th a lot
of drafts you'll see him go as a top 24
guys so he's pretty close to Nico
Collins which means that some people
believe that there's a decent chance
Diggs is the number one receiver on this
team but not just that it's not just
that he'll be the number one receiver it
could be but it's enough to be a second
round pick or third round pick worthy
I'm skeptical because Diggs is turning
31 this year after coming off one of the
more or the poorer Seasons or one of the
poorer Seasons let's get that together s
of his career and now some people might
say oh because of the fact that they had
an offensive coordinator change
mid-season I actually believe this
mattered some but he still was seeing
accurate targets the seventh most
accurate target rating in the league
Stefan digs had from won Josh Allen now
the big thing that you could probably
turn to and get away from is just the
way that they were using him once they
got rid of Ken dorsy and hired their new
offensive coordinator and that's the way
they used him right here his average
depth of Target how far downfield his
average Target went was just 10 yards
downfield 15 9th in the NFL so he wasn't
seeing as many deep targets as usual or
maybe not deep targets but just as many
like 10 to 15 yard targets but here's
the thing I don't think that's changing
now that he's going to be 31 especially
entering this offense because that deep
target range is just absolutely
dominated and held by Nico colins who
was the best wide receiver in the NFL
last year on targets of 15 or more yards
and nicoo ended his season last year
ranking second in wide receiver
efficiency sixth in yards after the
catch and seventh in fantasy points per
game and now he's entering his age 25
season the prime of his career is this
team's clear Alpha but that's not all
that digs is going to deal with because
then you also have tank Dell out there
who also won on the outside for the
large majority of last season he was an
outside receiver believe it or not even
though he's smaller 70% of the time and
he ranked 12th in average Target
distance and 14th in yards per out run
and that average Target distance being
top 12 in the NFL means that he was
seeing downfield Targets on the outside
so I think that there's a world where
Stefon Diggs has to move into the slot
in this offense and if that's the case
when there's only two wide receivers on
the field Diggs is going to come off the
field in certain situations and just not
be able to earn more targets now that
might seem like the extreme downside
case but I do think it's realistic when
you look at these other two guys in this
offense are like 25 and 22 years old the
Aging a wide receiver versus these young
guys who were just top 20 receivers in
fantasy and efficiency last year then
there's also this concern I have right
here this is part of the fantasy Blue
Print it's all the team changes from the
NFL draft from key free agent additions
and subtractions it's the offensive line
for the Texans look at the subtractions
right here this offensive line kind of
just got by last year was banged up and
then they lose three pieces in Michael
deer Josh Jones and George F and they
only replace it with a rookie in the NFL
draft Blake fiser and then a late round
rookie larius Henderson so really this
offensive line in my opinion is kind of
suspect and not for nothing maybe this
leads to them running the ball More Than
People expect they did sign Joe Mixon in
free agency this team ranked 17th in
pass rate last year so they weren't
throwing the ball all around the field
like people think I don't know I'm just
spitballing here but based on his
current ADP and all the factors that we
just talked about I'm really not in on a
on Stefon Diggs unless he drops now this
next player if Stefan Diggs didn't do it
for you I think that this quarterback is
going to be the guy that everybody goes
hey how dare you Salin is outside my
door wav their fist it's the guy we just
talked about a little bit it's CJ stad
the Houston Texans quarterback and
here's the deal he's obviously great he
had a great rookie season I don't doubt
it he never turned the ball over he
looked comfortable and efficient but
here's the thing stad currently goes
right now as the quarterback five in
drafts yes a top five quarterback he's
going ahead of Anthony Richardson about
five to 10 picks ahead of Anthony
Richardson right now you can scroll down
here and you can see Kyler Murray he's
going 20 picks ahead of Kyler Murray I
bring these names up because I think
these guys have a high ceiling and can
easily out R him I think Anthony
Richardson definitely can I think he has
quarterback one upside based on his
Mobility he's coming off the shoulder
surgery but he was throwing after four
months he has a great coach in Shane St
and I think that's a guy I'd rather have
than CJ stra and then similar things
could be said for Kyler Murray as well
because here's the thing CJ stra doesn't
have the rushing upside he's mobile but
he doesn't use it he average just 11
rushing yards per game last year ranking
31st amongst all quarterbacks 167 yards
ranked just 21st so even though he has
the upgrades with Stephon digs joining
the team and replacing no Brown in the
starting rotation and Joe Mixon now in
the back field he's going to need like a
40 plus touch down season if he's
actually going to finish top five around
these mobile quarterbacks maybe 40 plus
is a bit aggressive but you get my point
there and then there's also the
offensive line concerns that can come
into play this year that I don't think
anybody's talking about so rather than
taking CJ strad as the 48th overall
player I'm 30 spots later on him why not
just wait a little bit you can scroll
down get Anthony Richardson a round
later you could scroll down a whole lot
more and that's where Kyler Murray
becomes available two to two and a half
rounds later for a guy who I think has a
higher ceiling than CJ strap now before
we get into the guy who I think is the
number one most avoid in all fantasy
football as of right now I do have to
let you know about the beautiful fantasy
blueprint and look I'm not going to take
up a lot of your time you'll get a link
in the description below or you can scan
the QR code and it'll take you to this
page you click get access and what does
it take you to some options to get the
fantasy blueprint absolutely risk-free
based on where you're located these two
main options and there's what this one
down here just in case those first two
don't work for you and I say it's
risk-free because if you don't make your
fantasy playoffs I just refund this
small payment the one time payment of
like 10 bucks or whatever it is no
questions ask you get it back RIS free
and I'm going to help you all season
long not just for your draft but weeks 1
through 18 I'll be sending you tools
every single day Waiver Wires rankings
for that week projections all this to
help you win your leag so you can check
out that fantasy blueprint down below
now to talk about our final player of
the video he's on the screen right now
he's a tight end can you pick which one
he is well I'll let you know it's this
guy right here TJ hackinson is one of
the worst picks as of right now in my
opinion in all of fantasy football and
it might seem crazy to see that T.J
hawson goes as the 138th overall player
right now he's like a 10th round pick
11th round pick and why is the reason
for this well you might have forgot he
tore his ACL but not only did he tear
his ACL he tore it in week 16 last year
which is late in the season and it was a
m multi- ligament injury it was both the
ACL and MCL which naturally takes more
than the average 9 to 10 months to
recover from it might take up to an
entire 12 months which obviously that
brings in some worries because he tore
it in week 16 if it took near 12 months
which again is probably not likely but
it could happen he might miss the entire
season more realistically he'll probably
start the year in the pup miss four to
six plus weeks so that's already not
great that's like best case scenario why
draft this guy and then there's the
second bad news if you look at ROV is
here is quarterback's no longer Kirt
cousins and with kurk cousins in 24
games in his career he averages 12.8
points more than the other games of his
entire career and 7.7 targets per game
he doesn't have this guy now instead he
has this combination of quarterbacks
rookie JJ McCarthy and Sam darnold who
as of right now Sam Dar is the starting
quarterback in OTAs and maybe that's
where he's going to start the year which
is not the best there's also the concern
that rookie quarterbacks rarely sustain
two weapons I know CJ stra did it last
year but it's pretty rare and I'm pretty
sure the $140 million wide receiver
Justin Jefferson is going to be the guy
who is the number one option on this
team so now you might be thinking s
isn't this already baked into his price
as like a 10th or an 11th round pick and
my answer to that would be absolutely
not I think according to my fantasy
blueprint he's a 14th or 15th round pick
he's my 168th overall player I'm 58
spots lower than consensus the most I am
on any other player because here's the
deal right now look at all of the guys
that he is currently going before you
can see all these guys after him I
definitely want Tyler Lockett instead
you look look at the exact same position
you can scroll down and it's rounds
later why not just get Pat Fruth two to
three rounds later why not just wait
even longer than that you can keep
scrolling and scrolling and scrolling
and finding another tight end in this
range like Jawan Johnson you could wait
lit literally six to seven rounds and
get Jawan Johnson who I think is
actually going to at least play half the
season or more generally speaking I
don't like drafting guys coming off of a
multi- ligament knee injury especially
when it was in week 16 and he's a
somewhat older player not old but older
I say generally speaking because
sometimes the ADP accounts for it but in
this situation it definitely does not so
beautiful people we made it through it
these are the seven players that please
please stop drafting them at least as of
right now at their current ADP we do not
hate players we just don't like their
adps now if you want to see some of the
players that you must draft this season
while I'll put those two videos right
here early on these are the must draff
running backs and wide receivers that I
believe based on their current adps in
fantasy football
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