7 BUSTS You’ll Regret Drafting Early in 2024 Fantasy Football

Summary

In this video, the host discusses the strategy of avoiding potential busts in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts. He identifies seven players, including Saquon Barkley and Mike Evans, who he believes are overpriced and carry high bust potential. Using consensus rankings and data analysis, the host provides detailed reasoning for each player, suggesting alternatives who offer better value in the draft. The goal is to help viewers make informed decisions to build a competitive fantasy football team.

Takeaways

• 🏈 The early rounds of fantasy football drafts are compared to the game Battleship, where players aim to pick top performers while avoiding potential busts.
• 👟 Saquon Barkley is considered a risky first-round pick due to his injury history and the perception that he may not return to his rookie form.
• 📉 There's skepticism around drafting Mike Evans highly because of the potential decline in the Tampa Bay offense and his age.
• 🚫 The script advises against drafting certain players early, like Saquon Barkley and Michael Pittman Jr., due to their perceived lack of upside compared to other options.
• 🤔 The discussion highlights the importance of considering a player's situation, such as team, offensive line, and role within the offense, when drafting.
• 📊 Statistical analysis, including tackle avoidance percentage and correlation of performance year-over-year, is used to evaluate player potential.
• 🔝 The script suggests that some players are being overdrafted in home leagues, which could lead to regret if they don't meet expectations.
• 💰 There's an emphasis on value and the idea that certain players are being selected too early based on name recognition rather than current performance.
• 🏟️ The change in team or offensive scheme is a significant factor, with examples given of how it could affect a player's production, such as with Keenan Allen.
• ⚖️ The script uses consensus rankings from various sources to identify players who might be overvalued or undervalued in the fantasy football community.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video script?

The main topic of the video script is identifying players in fantasy football who have high bust potential and are overpriced, particularly those who should be avoided in the early rounds of fantasy drafts.

Who are the first two players mentioned as potential busts in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts?

The first two players mentioned as potential busts are Saquon Barkley and Mike Evans.

Why does the speaker believe Saquon Barkley might be a bust in the first round of fantasy drafts?

The speaker believes Saquon Barkley might be a bust because he hasn't performed at a high level since his rookie year, and he has been dealing with injuries and an aging factor typical for running backs. Additionally, his tackle avoidance percentage is low, and there are other running backs with higher upside available later in the draft.

What is the 'Running Back Upside Theory' mentioned in the script?

The 'Running Back Upside Theory' refers to the idea that when drafting a running back early, they should have the potential to be an rb1 overall and provide a high point return on investment, considering the fragility and high bust rate of running backs.

What concerns does the speaker have about drafting Mike Evans in the second round?

The speaker has concerns about drafting Mike Evans in the second round due to his age, the potential regression in his performance, the bottom 10 offense he plays in, and the uncertainty around the quarterback play with Baker Mayfield.

What is the significance of the 'year-over-year correlation of running backs changing teams' mentioned in the script?

The 'year-over-year correlation of running backs changing teams' signifies that running backs' point production, rush attempts, routes, and targets can be less consistent when they move to a new team, which could affect their fantasy football value.

Why does the speaker prefer other tight ends over Sam Laporta in the early rounds?

The speaker prefers other tight ends over Sam Laporta because they can be drafted later and offer similar value without the premium pick cost. The speaker also believes that touchdowns are less predictable and 'sticky' stats compared to receptions and yards, which Laporta's value seems to rely heavily on.

What are the concerns about drafting Brandon Aiyuk in the early rounds mentioned in the script?

The concerns about drafting Brandon Aiyuk include his holdout situation, the potential for a slow start due to lack of practice, and the uncertainty of his role and efficiency in a new offensive system with the 49ers.

Why does the speaker consider Michael Pittman Jr. overvalued in fantasy drafts?

The speaker considers Michael Pittman Jr. overvalued because his production heavily relied on plays with Anthony Richardson, and with a new quarterback and potential changes in the offensive scheme, his target volume and efficiency may decrease. Additionally, the speaker believes there are better values available later in the draft.

What are the reasons for the speaker's hesitance to draft Alvin Kamara in the early rounds?

The speaker is hesitant to draft Alvin Kamara because of his declining tackle avoidance rate, which may indicate a decline in performance. Additionally, the team's projected scoring offense is not high, and there are other backs who may offer better value at a similar draft position.

What are the concerns about drafting Keenan Allen in the early rounds as outlined in the script?

The concerns about drafting Keenan Allen include his age and potential decline in performance, his change in teams which could affect his chemistry with a new quarterback, and the possibility of him being utilized in a less productive role in the new offensive scheme.