Dr. Yossi Sheffi (MIT Professor): Supply chain lessons from the pandemic
Summary
TLDR这段视频脚本讨论了供应链在疫情期间的重要性和变革。媒体通常对供应链的报道过于悲观,但实际上供应链在疫情期间表现出色,例如食品供应链迅速适应了需求的急剧变化。技术,尤其是机器人技术在仓储中的应用,因不需考虑疫情相关健康问题而得到加速发展。准备和恢复力是企业应对危机的关键,需要对供应商进行映射、优先级排序和集中决策。危机也是一个识别优秀客户、员工和供应商的机会。供应链的角色和重要性得到了提升,吸引了更多人才,包括女性,使这一领域变得更加复杂和专业化。技术采纳速度加快,但也出现了一些企业决策过于仓促的问题。贸易壁垒和芯片短缺等问题对全球供应链构成挑战,需要对技术有深入理解才能有效应对。供应链是经济的无形之手,使世界运转,若没有供应链,我们将回到自给自足的石器时代。
Takeaways
- 📰 媒体对供应链的了解有限,往往倾向于过度夸大问题,而实际上供应链并没有失败,例如在2020年疫情初期,尽管许多餐馆、大学和工业关闭,但食品供应链依然有效运作,没有导致人们挨饿。
- 🛠️ COVID-19加速了技术的应用,特别是在仓库中机器人的使用,因为机器人不需要休息、接种疫苗或佩戴口罩,可以全天候工作。
- 🔍 美国目前面临劳动力短缺问题,这进一步推动了自动化和机器人技术在仓库中的应用。
- 🤖 自动化和机器人技术的一个优势是,一旦算法修复了错误,就不会再犯同样的错误,提高了效率。
- 🛡️ 准备应对危机时,需要优先考虑可能发生的事情及其影响,特别是那些不常发生但影响重大的事件。
- 🔄 韧性是从材料科学中借鉴的概念,指的是在变形后恢复原状的能力,对公司而言,是在经历中断后恢复服务、生产或分销水平的能力。
- 📝 为了建立韧性,需要对供应商进行映射,准备应对供应不足的情况,制定客户优先级,集中信息和决策制定,确保决策的有效性。
- 👀 危机是识别优秀客户、员工和供应商的机会,了解谁值得长期合作。
- 🎯 供应链的重要性在疫情期间得到了提升,现在人们更加认识到供应链的价值,供应链相关的教育和职业机会也在增加。
- 🚀 供应链已经从一个基本的仓储和运输行业,发展成为一个高度复杂和专业化的领域,吸引了更多女性加入。
- 💡 技术在疫情期间的快速采纳表明,公司可以在几周内做出决策,但这也导致了一些公司过度削减,需要重新审视决策过程。
- 🚫 贸易壁垒,特别是在疫苗和芯片等关键领域,对全球供应链产生了负面影响。
- 💡 技术的发展需要时间来理解和应用,供应链领域尤其需要新的教育来理解区块链、物联网、3D打印等技术。
- 🔍 一些公司在没有明确问题解决目标的情况下购买技术,这是一个常见错误。
- 🌐 供应链是经济的“无形之手”,它通过买卖链条连接买家和卖家,使经济得以运转。
Q & A
供应链在疫情期间的表现如何?
-供应链在疫情期间并没有失败,反而表现出色。例如,食品供应链在2020年2月底到3月初,尽管所有餐馆、大学和工业都关闭了,但人们并没有因此挨饿,食品依然能够被分配到需要的地方。
疫情期间,哪些因素加速了技术在供应链中的采用?
-疫情期间,技术在供应链中的采用被显著加速,尤其是仓库中的机器人技术,因为机器人不需要休息、不需要接种疫苗,也不需要戴口罩,可以全天候工作。
为什么自动化和机器人技术在供应链中变得重要?
-自动化和机器人技术在供应链中变得重要,因为它们可以一次性解决错误,通过修正算法来避免重复错误。此外,由于美国等地区工人短缺,自动化和机器人技术成为了推动力。
在准备应对危机时,我们应该如何思考?
-在准备应对危机时,我们需要优先考虑可能发生的事情,考虑事情发生的可能性以及如果发生会有多糟糕。最危险的是需要优先考虑那些不常发生但影响重大的事情。
什么是韧性,它在供应链中如何体现?
-韧性是从材料科学中借鉴来的概念,指的是材料在变形后保持形状的能力。在供应链中,韧性指的是公司在遭受某种干扰后,能够恢复到相同水平的服务、制造、分销等的能力。
为了提高供应链的韧性,我们需要做哪些准备?
-为了提高供应链的韧性,我们需要绘制所有供应商的地图,了解他们的位置,预先准备如果零件不足时的应对策略,如何优先考虑客户,如何集中所有信息和决策制定,确保决策制定得当,每个人都能做好自己的工作。
危机期间,如何识别好的客户、员工和供应商?
-一个好的危机是识别好的客户、员工和供应商的好机会。通过危机,可以看出谁在长期内对你承诺,谁在危机中表现出色,这些是你应该在危机后继续依赖和合作的对象。
疫情期间,供应链的角色有何变化?
-疫情期间,供应链的角色得到了提升。现在人们意识到供应链的重要性,供应链管理的申请人数也显著增加,供应链管理被认为是一个重要的职业发展方向。
供应链管理如何变得更加专业化?
-供应链管理变得更加专业化,不再仅仅是仓储和运输,而是涉及到计算机、管理和流程等方面。这一变化的一个标志是,现在供应链管理领域中男女比例已经达到平衡。
疫情期间,技术采纳的速度有何变化?
-疫情期间,技术采纳的速度大大加快。通常公司可能需要几个月甚至几年来决定购买某款软件,但在疫情期间,这个决定可能只需要几周或一个月。
疫情期间,国际贸易中出现了哪些问题?
-疫情期间,出现了疫苗和疫苗生产材料的贸易壁垒。当出现短缺,需求显著上升时,一些国家开始限制出口,这对于芯片和其他技术产品来说是个坏消息,因为芯片的使用量正在指数级增长。
芯片短缺问题为何难以解决?
-芯片短缺问题难以解决,因为建立一个真正的芯片制造工厂需要数年时间,这是一个复杂且风险高的过程。例如,一位CEO曾说过,他们每隔几年就会投入四十亿美元挖一个大坑,希望四年后能建成一个工厂,但科学是否可行,是否能生产出预期的产品,这些都是未知数。
供应链中的技术挑战是什么?
-供应链中的技术挑战包括理解技术的发展,并能够利用技术帮助我们。但教育人们理解技术,特别是在供应链领域,需要时间。一些公司的错误是购买技术而没有考虑要解决的问题是什么。
供应链对全球贸易有什么作用?
-供应链对全球贸易至关重要,它使得贸易成为可能,因为供应链将商品带给需要它们的人。如果没有供应链,我们就会回到每个人只为自己服务的石器时代,这显然不是一个好的发展方向。
供应链中的买卖关系是如何运作的?
-供应链是一系列买卖关系,买方和卖方都有动机。如果买卖双方之间的联系断裂,卖方会寻找其他买家,买方会寻找其他卖家,他们不需要从上层进行大规模的协调,因为每个环节都有动机尽可能解决问题。
Outlines
😀 供应链在疫情中的关键作用
第一段主要讨论了供应链在疫情期间的表现和媒体对其的误解。尽管媒体倾向于夸大问题,但实际上供应链并没有失败。以食品供应链为例,尽管餐厅、大学和工业在2020年2月至3月间突然关闭,导致大量食品需求消失,但人们并未因此挨饿,食品依然能够被有效分配。此外,疫情加速了技术的应用,尤其是机器人技术在仓库中的应用,因为机器人不需要休息、疫苗或口罩,可以全天候工作。在美国,由于劳动力短缺,自动化和机器人技术的需求增加。自动化和机器人技术虽然会犯错,但一旦算法修正,错误将不再发生。准备应对危机时,需要优先考虑可能发生的事件及其影响,尤其是那些不常发生但影响重大的事件。韧性是准备的关键,它来自材料科学,指的是材料在变形后恢复形状的能力。在企业中,韧性是指在经历中断后能够恢复到相同服务、制造或分销水平的能力。准备韧性需要了解所有供应商的位置,准备应对零件不足的情况,优先考虑客户,集中信息和决策制定,并确保决策过程的有效性。危机是识别优秀客户、员工和供应商的好机会,这些是企业在危机后应依赖的对象。
📚 供应链教育与职业发展
第二段讨论了供应链教育和职业发展的重要性。疫情期间,供应链的作用被更多人认识到,申请供应链相关教育项目的人显著增加。供应链不仅控制着公司从供应商到运输、制造、分销和退货的整个流程,而且已成为一个非常复杂的职业领域。这一领域的一个显著变化是女性从业者的增加,从传统的仓储和运输行业转变为涉及计算机、管理和流程的领域,女性和男性学生的比例达到了50/50。此外,疫情期间技术的采纳速度加快,公司决策购买软件的时间从几个月缩短到几周甚至一个月。然而,一些公司在快速决策时可能忽略了法律审查等重要步骤,现在一些公司正在设立委员会,以确保在保持快速响应的同时不会牺牲基本原则。贸易壁垒,特别是在疫苗和疫苗原料短缺时,对全球供应链产生了负面影响。芯片短缺问题尤为严重,因为建立一个新的芯片制造工厂需要数年时间,并且风险很大。教育和理解新技术之间存在滞后,特别是在供应链领域,需要时间培养能够理解区块链、物联网和3D打印等技术的新人才。一些公司在没有明确问题的情况下购买技术,这是一个常见错误。供应链是贸易的基础,如果没有供应链,我们将回到每个人自给自足的石器时代。
🔄 供应链的自我调节机制
第三段强调了供应链中买卖双方的自我调节机制。在供应链中,买卖双方都有自己的动机,如果买卖双方之间的联系断裂,卖方会寻找其他买家,买方会寻找其他卖家。这种机制不需要中央协调,因为链条中的每个环节都有解决问题的动力。供应链是一个自我调节的系统,其中每个环节都是解决问题的关键,整个系统就像一个大脑,自我管理和调整。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链
💡技术采纳
💡自动化
💡韧性
💡供应链管理
💡危机准备
💡客户优先级
💡供应链角色
💡贸易壁垒
💡芯片短缺
Highlights
供应链在疫情期间表现出色,没有失败。
媒体对供应链的报道往往过于悲观。
疫情期间食品供应链迅速适应,确保了人们没有挨饿。
Kovit加速了技术在供应链中的采用。
机器人在仓库中的应用因无需考虑疫情相关健康问题而增加。
美国劳动力短缺推动了自动化和机器人技术的应用。
自动化和机器人技术一旦出错,只需修正算法即可避免重复错误。
准备应对危机时需要优先考虑可能发生且影响严重的事情。
准备应对不常发生但影响重大的事件是具有挑战性的。
韧性是从材料科学中借鉴的概念,指的是公司在遭受干扰后恢复原有服务水平的能力。
为了建立韧性,需要提前准备并了解所有供应商的情况。
危机期间可以识别出优秀的客户、员工和供应商。
供应链的重要性在疫情期间得到了提升。
供应链专业的女性从业者数量增加,变得更加多样化。
疫情期间技术采纳速度加快,决策时间缩短。
一些公司在疫情期间削减过多,现在需要重新审视决策过程。
疫情期间出现了疫苗和材料的贸易壁垒。
芯片短缺问题凸显,因为建立新的芯片制造厂需要数年时间。
供应链中的技术理解存在滞后,需要时间来培养理解新技术的人才。
公司在采用新技术时,有时会没有明确要解决的问题。
供应链是贸易的基石,没有供应链就没有贸易。
供应链是经济中看不见的手,通过买卖双方的激励自我调节。
Transcripts
supply chain
executives and managers and workers with
the heroes of this pandemic
several things that we learn about
supply chain the media the general media
know very little about supply chain the
media tend to catastrophizing everything
to make everything bad
supply chain failed
supply chain did not fail in fact supply
chain it was the best time for supply
chain for example think about the food
supply chain from one day to the next in
end of february beginning of march 2020
all restaurants were closed all
universities are closed all industry was
closed
so suddenly half the food that was going
to these places
was not going anymore yet by and large
nobody went hungry the stuff kept going
people made a big deal out of it and it
was wrong
big time kovit has accelerated
significantly the adoption of technology
in general and one of the main
issue was robotics in warehousing first
of all because
robots
don't get coffee don't need to be
vaccinated don't need to wear masks so
they just work 24 7. not a problem
second
in the united states at least now
there's lack of workers
there are many more open positions than
workers
so
again it's another drive for automation
in general and particularly robotics in
in warehousing
and the thing with with automation and
robotic it's not that it doesn't have
mistakes
but you make the mistakes only once
i mean you fix the algorithm and it's
fixed that's it from this point on
there's no problem
if you think about preparation to begin
with you have to prioritize what are you
kind of preparing for so he you can
think about what's the probability that
something will happen and then if it
happens how bad it's going to be
and most people think that you have to
prepare
mostly for the stuff that has high
likelihood to happen
and it will happen it's going to be bad
the most dangerous thing that have to be
prioritized is things that do not happen
a lot but they have
in a significant impact this is like a
coveted like
bp explosion like
you know
japan and japan disaster things that who
could have dreamed that japan will not
be prepared for earthquakes i mean my
god japan
the country that's more prepared than
any other country
the reason that
it's harder to prepare for is because it
didn't happen things that happened a lot
before even though they were bad
you know you could drill them you could
prepare for them
you know it's never exactly the same as
you prepare for but you have the basic
framework things that
never happened before you can
only
come up with general resilience
resilience is a concept taken from
material science actually it's the
ability of material
to retain its shape after deformation
here we're talking about the ability of
a company
to bounce back to the same level of
service manufacturing level
distribution whatever after some kind of
disruption
[Music]
many elements from this how to prepare
for resilience you have to
map all your
suppliers to know
where they are you have to prepare ahead
of time what will you do if you don't
have enough if you don't get enough
parts and you cannot give everything to
every to every customer how do you
prioritize customers how do you
centralize all the information and the
decision-making how do you make sure the
decision-making is not is done well and
everybody is doing his job
a good crisis is very good to find out
who the good customers are who the good
employees are who who the good suppliers
are knowing who the good ones are this
is who you should bet on coming out of
the crisis and you should think about do
you still want to have certain division
that didn't perform you still want to
deal with certain supply research and
customers it's an opportunity to see who
is
who is committed to you in the long term
[Music]
one of the great things that happened is
that it elevated the role of supply
chain everybody now know how important
supply chain is they used to ask my wife
what's your husband doing at mit and he
used to say works on supply chain they
say
what is that i mean and now everybody
say oh that's important i mean it's just
completely changed and you see in
companies supply chain is elevated now
even
applications to programs to graduate
programming supply chain to our program
but many other programs
are increasing dramatically people
realize that that's an important and
good career move
uh that you can
because it kind of controls everything
that happens
in the company from the supplier to the
transportation to manufacturing to
distribution to return the whole thing
is supply chain another interesting
thing that happened in supply chain
while we're at it
is it became it used to be just
warehousing and trucking basically
it's now a very very sophisticated
profession
and one of the metrics that we see for
this becoming more sophisticated
profession
many more women in the profession
it used to be trucking and warehousing
used to be a men's world
now we're talking about computers and
management and processes and
we now have this this year we have 50 50
among our students men and women
so it's great
it's great to see
talent that was not even thinking about
supply chain maybe 20 years ago 30 years
ago
entering the profession it can only make
it better
another thing that happened is
there was a much
much faster
uptake of technology during the pandemic
usually it may take you know months and
years for a company to make a decision
to buy some piece of software this was
you know weeks you know a month and
things like that now the truth is
that many companies felt that they
cut too much and they need a better for
example legal review is a contract were
written quickly and all of this
so some companies have now committees
that look at
how can we do do how can we do stuff
quickly just like we did the epidemic
but not cut too many corners
unfortunately during coffee we saw that
there were trade barriers for vaccines
themselves for materials to make
vaccines whenever there is a shortage
and
the demand goes up significantly
we will see
countries that are starting to
constraint how much can be can be
exported out and this is really bad news
for chips and other technology in
particular because
the uses of chip in general is going up
exponentially shortage of chip is
is a problem because it takes years to
build
a real cheap manufacturing plan it takes
years to build and it's complicated and
risky
you know i was talking once to a ceo and
he said let me tell you what risk means
every few years we dig a big hole in the
ground
and we put four billion dollars into it
and we hope that there'll be a plant
that four years from now
it will make what we hope it will make
we don't even know the science if
science can be there we don't even know
if we can make things like this but we
have to make the the bet right now
talk about risk that's risk
some of the challenge is to understand
the technology the technology is
becoming better and can help us a lot
but
there's a lag between
the education of people to understand
the technology especially in supply
chain it takes time
for to get new people who get the right
education and can understand you know
blockchain and internet of things and 3d
printing and
know where it fits and where it doesn't
fit some of the mistakes that i see
companies make sometimes is they
buy technology without ever thinking
what's the problem that you're trying to
solve
[Music]
without supply chain it means that
every
there's no trade basically supply chain
enables trade because you bring
something
to somebody who needs it so okay so you
already have a purchasing and
distribution function even if it's one
person
then in the old babylonian you know
markets people
came to the market so there was there
were merchants in the market who had to
bring stuff so that they had procurement
they had distribution customer came they
had to
send it there was transportation so all
the elements were always there
without supply chain we are back to
every person for himself you have to
hunt you have to build your own house
you have to do everything yourself you
don't
take anything from from anybody so we're
back to the stone age and it's
it was no fun
supply chain enables the world to work
the invisible hand of the economy if you
think about supply chain it's a chain of
buy and sell a buy and sell a buying set
a buying set of material in parts and
products and
so it's basically
you know both buyer and sellers have
incentive if the link break between one
buyer and one seller
the seller will look for other buyers
the buyer will look for you know
other sellers they don't need
a big orchestration
uh from above because every chain in the
link has incentive to solve the problems
as far as they can the beauty is this
there's no brain don't need the brain
it's the system is the brain that's it
Посмотреть больше похожих видео
Reshaping Supply Chains for a Post-Pandemic World
Navigating the Rocky Supply Chain Landscape
How Can Supply Chains Embrace Sustainability?
Beyond the Box Episode 3: Visibility in supply chains
The Critical Role of Supply Chains in Business and Society
Omera Khan: Building robust & resilient supply chains in today's dynamic business environment
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)