Proactive Strategies for Resilient Supply Chains: Mitigating Hidden Risks
Summary
TLDR本视频脚本讨论了供应链的弹性问题,由麻省理工学院的David教授和Accenture的董事总经理pfk共同介绍。David教授领导MIT数据科学实验室,专注于数据科学,特别是供应链弹性。他们开发了一种新的供应链弹性评估方法,通过与福特汽车公司的合作,成功预测了2020年初新冠疫情对供应链的影响。pfk强调了供应链弹性管理的重要性,提出了五个最佳实践要素,并讨论了如何通过数字化孪生和压力测试来优化供应链弹性。他们还分享了如何利用这些工具来快速响应市场变化,提高企业竞争力。
Takeaways
- 🎓 **学术与实践结合**:Dr. Levy 与 Accenture 的合作展示了学术界与咨询公司之间的成功合作,共同开发了供应链韧性压力测试工具。
- 📈 **供应链韧性的重要性**:通过 COVID-19 大流行,供应链韧性从边缘话题变成了核心议题,企业开始重视并投资于韧性建设。
- 🔍 **数据科学的应用**:MIT 数据科学实验室与福特汽车公司合作,开发了新的方法来衡量供应链的韧性并识别潜在风险。
- 📊 **数字孪生技术**:构建供应链的数字孪生是实现供应链可视化和韧性管理的关键步骤。
- ⏱️ **时间关键指标**:引入了时间恢复(Time to Recover)、生存时间(Time to Survive)和性能影响(Performance Impact)等关键性能指标来评估供应链的韧性。
- 💡 **前瞻性管理**:通过预测性分析,企业可以提前识别潜在的供应链问题,并采取预防措施,从而避免未来的业务中断。
- 🌐 **全球化风险**:供应链的全球性质意味着一个地区的中断可能对全球产生连锁反应,因此需要全球视角来管理风险。
- 📉 **财务影响的量化**:通过建立数字孪生模型,企业可以量化供应链中断对财务的具体影响,从而更准确地评估风险和投资。
- 🛠️ **风险缓解策略**:通过压力测试和场景分析,企业可以确定和优先处理风险缓解活动,以提高供应链的韧性。
- 🚀 **竞争优势**:在面对全球性的中断时,能够快速反应并有效管理供应链的企业可以将其转化为竞争优势。
- 📚 **持续学习与改进**:企业需要持续地从每次供应链中断中学习,不断改进其韧性管理策略,以适应不断变化的全球环境。
Q & A
什么是供应链弹性(resiliency),它为什么重要?
-供应链弹性是指供应链在面对各种干扰时,能够快速响应并恢复正常运营的能力。它重要是因为在当前的商业环境中,如自然灾害、政治冲突、疫情等不可预测的事件频发,拥有弹性的供应链能够帮助企业减少中断带来的影响,保持业务连续性,甚至在某些情况下,通过快速反应获得竞争优势。
Dr. Levy 在供应链弹性方面有哪些贡献?
-Dr. Levy 是麻省理工学院(MIT)的教授,他在供应链弹性方面做出了显著贡献。他与福特汽车公司合作,开发了一种新的方法来衡量供应链的弹性水平,并识别潜在风险。他的研究成果发表在《哈佛商业评论》上,并且他在2020年初准确预测了新冠疫情对北美和欧洲供应链的影响。
Accenture 和 MIT 是如何合作来提升供应链弹性的?
-Accenture 与 MIT 合作,将 MIT 开发的技术规模化,应用到多个行业中。他们共同开发了所谓的“供应链压力测试(residency stress test)”,帮助企业通过模拟不同的干扰情景来测试和提高其供应链的弹性。
什么是供应链压力测试,它如何帮助企业?
-供应链压力测试是一种评估工具,它借鉴了金融行业在2008年金融危机后的做法,要求企业模拟各种潜在的干扰情景,以测试其供应链的抗压能力。通过压力测试,企业能够识别潜在的风险点,制定应对策略,从而在真正的危机发生时能够更加迅速和有效地响应。
在供应链管理中,为什么需要高层领导的支持?
-在供应链管理中,需要高层领导的支持来打破内部隔阂,实现端到端的可视化管理。没有高层的支持,采购、生产、研发等部门可能无法协同工作,形成统一的供应链弹性策略。
如何衡量供应链的弹性?
-衡量供应链弹性可以通过几个关键的指标,如恢复时间(time to recover)、生存时间(time to survive)和性能影响(performance impact)。这些指标帮助企业量化在特定干扰下,供应链恢复正常运营所需的时间和对企业财务的影响。
什么是数字孪生(digital twin),在供应链管理中它扮演什么角色?
-数字孪生是一种虚拟模型,它能够代表物理世界中的实体或系统。在供应链管理中,数字孪生可以用来模拟整个供应链的运作,帮助企业进行风险评估、决策制定和性能优化。
为什么说供应链风险常常隐藏在意想不到的地方?
-供应链风险常常隐藏在意想不到的地方,因为传统的风险管理往往关注于那些显而易见的、成本较高的供应商。然而,一些小型供应商或者那些看似不重要的环节,一旦发生问题,也可能对整个供应链造成巨大的影响。
企业如何利用数字孪生来提高供应链的弹性?
-企业可以通过建立供应链的数字孪生来模拟不同的运营场景和潜在的干扰情景。通过这种方式,企业能够识别风险,优化库存管理,制定灵活的采购策略,并在危机发生前制定应对措施。
在当前的全球形势下,企业应如何考虑其供应链的地理分布?
-企业在考虑供应链的地理分布时,不能仅仅关注于将供应商和生产设施靠近市场需求,以期望提高弹性。实际上,根据数据,仅仅改变供应商的地理位置并不能保证供应链的弹性。企业需要综合考虑多种因素,包括政治稳定性、基础设施、供应商的可靠性等。
半导体行业的供应链问题对多个行业产生了哪些影响?
-半导体行业的供应链问题对汽车、消费电子、医疗设备等多个行业产生了影响。由于半导体短缺,许多行业面临生产延迟和成本上升的问题。此外,半导体供应链的复杂性和全球性意味着一个地区的干扰可能会对全球市场产生连锁反应。
企业如何平衡供应链的效率和弹性?
-企业需要在供应链的效率和弹性之间找到合适的平衡点。这意味着在优化成本和提高服务水平的同时,也要考虑到潜在的风险和干扰。企业可以通过建立数字孪生、进行压力测试、制定灵活的策略来提高供应链的弹性,同时保持效率。
在当前的能源危机中,企业应如何提高供应链的弹性?
-面对能源危机,企业需要采取多种措施来提高供应链的弹性。这可能包括寻找替代能源、优化能源使用、建立多元化的供应商网络、提高能源效率等。此外,企业还需要密切关注市场动态,快速响应能源价格的变化和政策调整。
Outlines
🎓 学术与实践的结合:供应链弹性讨论
本段落介绍了两位嘉宾,Dr. Levy和pfk,他们在运营研究、供应链管理以及创业方面有着丰富的经验。Dr. Levy是麻省理工学院(MIT)的教授,专注于供应链弹性的研究,并与福特汽车公司合作开发了一种新的衡量供应链弹性的方法。pfk作为埃森哲的董事总经理,与Dr. Levy合作,共同开发了一种名为“弹性压力测试”的工具,旨在帮助企业应对供应链中断。此外,还提到了MIT与埃森哲之间的技术合作,以及学术界与咨询行业之间的合作重要性。
📈 供应链弹性的五个要素
在这段对话中,讨论了如何衡量和提升供应链的弹性。首先,强调了CEO在推动供应链弹性方面的领导作用,因为需要打破内部隔阂,实现端到端的可见性。其次,提到了建立专门的供应链弹性团队的重要性,以及利用数据进行决策的必要性。此外,还强调了将中断视为机遇,以创造竞争优势的观点。最后,讨论了面对不断变化的市场环境,如何通过工业化的方式帮助客户定期进行弹性分析,以应对无处不在的中断。
🔍 供应链弹性的实施案例分析
本段落通过福特汽车公司的案例,深入探讨了供应链弹性的实施细节。介绍了如何通过建立数字孪生模型来映射整个供应链,并使用新的KPIs(关键绩效指标)如恢复时间、生存时间和性能影响来识别隐藏的风险。通过这些指标,可以计算出特定供应商中断对公司收入的具体影响,从而帮助公司优先考虑风险缓解策略。此外,还讨论了如何通过减少库存来降低成本,同时保持较长的生存时间。
📉 隐藏的供应链风险
在这一部分中,强调了供应链风险可能隐藏在意想不到的地方,例如小供应商的中断可能会对公司的底线产生巨大影响。讨论了如何通过数字孪生模型来识别这些风险,并使用时间生存(time to survive)这一新的KPI来衡量供应链在没有某个设施的情况下能够维持多长时间。此外,还提到了如何通过减少库存来降低成本,同时保持较长的生存时间,从而创造商业机会。
🛠️ 供应链弹性管理的数字化转型
本段落讨论了如何通过数字化手段来提升供应链的弹性。提出了三个简单的步骤:首先进行成熟度评估,然后建立数字孪生模型,最后进行压力测试以应对不同的危机场景。强调了数字孪生模型的重要性,因为它可以提供对整个供应链(包括一级、二级、三级和四级供应商)的全面可见性。通过这些步骤,可以快速响应市场变化,优化库存,并在竞争中获得优势。
🌐 跨行业供应链弹性的关键洞察
在这一部分中,总结了在多个行业中实施供应链弹性管理的关键洞察。强调了供应链弹性管理不仅是一种哲学,还需要通过供应链映射、建立数字孪生模型和使用新的KPIs来实现。这些措施有助于识别隐藏的风险,建立所需的灵活性和冗余,并在事件发生时快速响应。此外,还讨论了如何在当前的全球危机中,如能源危机和半导体短缺,应用这些原则来构建更具弹性的供应链。
🚀 供应链弹性与政策制定
最后这一段讨论了供应链弹性与政策制定之间的关系。以半导体行业为例,分析了当前的产能不足问题,以及中国台湾局势对全球供应链的潜在影响。强调了在新的半导体制造设施建成之前,如何通过快速反应来维持供应链的弹性。此外,还讨论了政策制定者如何通过投资和技术创新来提高供应链的弹性,并强调了快速反应在竞争中的重要性。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链弹性
💡运营研究
💡数字孪生
💡风险管理
💡压力测试
💡首席执行官
💡数据科学
💡中断
💡竞争优势
💡敏捷性
Highlights
介绍了与MIT合作开发的供应链弹性压力测试,旨在帮助企业应对和管理中断。
强调了供应链弹性的重要性,特别是在COVID-19大流行期间。
提到了与福特汽车公司合作开发的衡量供应链弹性的新方法。
讨论了供应链中断对企业财务影响的量化,如福特汽车公司因供应商中断可能损失4亿美元。
强调了时间恢复(time to recover)和性能影响(performance impact)等关键概念。
提出了时间存活(time to survive)这一新的KPI,用于独立于供应商信息的内部评估。
展示了如何通过数字孪生技术来映射整个供应链并识别隐藏的风险。
讨论了供应链中断的财务影响,以及如何通过建立数字孪生来提前识别和缓解风险。
强调了供应链管理中CEO的领导作用和跨部门合作的重要性。
提出了供应链弹性管理作为常规管理流程的必要性。
讨论了如何通过成熟度评估、建立数字孪生和压力测试来提高供应链弹性。
介绍了如何利用数字孪生技术来提高对材料级别风险的可见性。
强调了在供应链管理中,快速反应时间的重要性。
讨论了半导体行业的供应链中断问题,以及如何通过建模和预测来应对。
分享了与Denzel公司合作的案例,展示了如何在半导体行业中应用供应链弹性管理。
强调了在政策层面上,投资于半导体制造设施的同时需要考虑供应链的弹性。
讨论了在当前能源危机下,如何通过供应链弹性管理来应对原材料成本上升的问题。
提出了关键绩效预测器(KPP)的概念,作为预测未来供应链状态的工具。
Transcripts
foreign
[Music]
so I am super excited to to introduce
two guests here right now you may have
heard uh Professor Levy earlier this
morning in a talk uh Dr Levy
um is one of the most esteemed academics
in operations research and supply chain
also an entrepreneur in the space as
well so super excited to hear what he
has to say on resiliency
um he doesn't know this but my
connection with MIT in this space I'm
not an academic goes back to watching a
friend of mine at the time John Roark
defend his PhD thesis in 1998 at MIT
which became a company called uh optient
and later on Dr Levy would would found
uh kind of a Next Generation version of
that looking at different supply chain
constraints so what's fascinating about
looking at supply chain is you're going
to hear now is we can look at an
operations research lens but bring it to
Modern supply chain risk versus just
demand capacity planning so Dr Levy
great to have you here
and pfk who is a managing director at
Accenture and works with Dr Levy and
colleagues looking at resiliency will be
kicking it off so pfk
[Applause]
soda so good afternoon everyone so I go
by pfk and so we're going to discuss
resilience today and what we want to do
this afternoon is to go beyond the bus
because residence has been the buzzword
for last two years and so we're happy
that today we're gonna show you what we
did with our clients to equip them so
that they can become you know super good
at managing resiliency and together with
MIT we develop what we call the
residency stress test that we're going
to present today and which we think this
is a this is interesting stuff for our
clients to do so that they can you know
manage disruption
we're going to present that I'm happy
that we did that together with David and
the good thing you know you know the
collaboration between academics and
Consultants sometimes it's a bit of a
love and hate relationship basically
these things we are bullshitters
we consultant and we think that you are
totally non-pragmatic and I'm glad to
say that we have been working together
with David for years and hopefully this
session will maintain peace between
consultants and academics and joke aside
you know we're happy about what we did
and we want this to be very pragmatic
get a session of of questions that yeah
you guys can challenge us and David
passes the mic to introduce yourself
great thank you welcome everybody
um as pfk said I'm on the faculty at MIT
at MIT I lead the MIT data science lab
which is a partnership between MIT and
about 25 companies focusing on data
science one area that we started
focusing on way before the pandemic in
2012 after event like the tsunami in
Japan and the flood in Thailand was
supply chain resiliency we collaborated
let me move here we collaborated with
the Ford Motor Company to develop a new
way
for companies to measure the level of
resiliency in their supply chain and
identify hidden risk and we reported
our finding and the New Concept in the
yellow Harvard Business review article
that was published toward the end of
2014 at that time
I was knocking on many doors trying to
convince companies to look not only at
supply chain efficiency but also at
resiliency very little interest most
companies focus on cutting costs through
lean through consolidation Outsourcing
and of and offshore everything changed
at the beginning of the epidemic but
perhaps known in the way you expected
in January of 2020 the pandemic was in
China it was not in North America and it
was not in Europe I started collecting
data on what's happening in China and I
use the technologies that I developed
six years earlier
to understand the impact of what's going
on in China on supply chain in Europe
and in North America and I published the
paper on the right hand side on the top
right hand side in February saying that
supply chain in North America and Europe
will shut down
in mid-march and this is exactly what
happened and after that we had the flood
of interest in our technology in our
framework MIT sign a contract with
Accenture to scale up our technology
into movie to multiple Industries
two months later in April of 2020.
I published a follow-up
identifying the importance of supply
chain stress tests
that companies need to take their supply
chains through and I borrow the concept
of stress tests from the financial
industry where after the financial
crisis of 2008 the federal government in
the U.S government in in Europe require
Banks to take the supply chains through
stress testing making sure that they are
ready for the next financial crisis and
in that paper
very short paper I highlighted the
importance of applying stress test for
supply chain in healthcare life science
semiconductors and the food industry and
I'm pleased to see how much interest we
have with this technology and how
successful our partnership has been in
in applying and implementing these
technology
let's be
okay so talking about what we call best
performers you know we want to go
straight to the point and tell you how
what we would describe is there's no
very best performance but if we were to
to give you some element of ingredients
this is a quote from the CEO of uh
Automotive tier one suppliers 15 billion
uh something like 180 sites and 150 000
people working for this company and the
question was very simple from the CEO
back in 2020 how do I measure resilience
I hear about Brazil but I've got no clue
how I can measure it second year what is
a business case of investing into
resilience what is at stake what are the
benefits what are the potential cost and
where do I start and this is where we
engage the discussion say we need to
industrialize to help our client being
able to be equipped so that they can run
those type of analysis but also have
them on a regular basis because we know
disruption is all over the place and
it's not a standard Road it's not a
one-off investment so five ingredients
to describe what the best practices look
at you know this is a CEO initiative why
is it important because if you want to
have a residency if you want to have
end-to-end visibility you need to break
the internal silos and you cannot do
that if you are a procurement guy or
manufacturing guy a r d guy you need to
bring the end-to-end perspective and you
need to the top leadership to be behind
that
supply chain residency team this this
company has set up a dedicated team
which is only focused on residency
this is a job this has become a core
process
of course they're leveraging data we're
going to discuss about the stress test
you need to get the data so that you get
the right data the right visibility to
take the right decision faster versus
competition
and finally they are looking at win
business it's not you know it's not
about risk management they see
disruption as an opportunity I want to
create competitive Advantage versus
competition so I want to be equipped so
that I can go faster versus rest and
this is what they did and so the CEO
commented about this stuff uh two years
ago and this is what we're going to
share with you today
in an element of context you know I'm
going to be quick because we want to
have a question you know the disruption
is a new normal it's all over the place
the one that I like you know if you look
at un they say we're going to move from
400 to 600 climate disaster per year so
like it or not you know we're going to
have to face those type of situations
you know about geopolitical we're going
to talk about that the one that I like
is demand search we have in
is what the friendship that in Holland
we are on the second land of cheese and
you probably remember you don't know
that but Oprah Winfrey you know two
years ago she did uh she did a show and
she talked about one of the worst she's
in France I'm not gonna name give the
name and in a question of 24 hours the
men in the U.S you know was multiplied
by 20. and so we are in a world today
with the Gartner calls that the business
moment you have a very you have a Kim
Kardashian talking about something and
suddenly the supply chain guy is
expected to come up with a 10 times the
production so we are in a in a world of
disruption and being resilient becomes
something super important and you this
is a way you can create competitive
advantage what we're going to do next
David is present you know the concept
has been there for years it's about you
know how do you make sure that you know
you can look at your resiliency not in a
question of days or weeks but in
question of hours and this is what we
did David thank you
so remember our definition of supply
chain resiliency we are looking at the
supply chain end to end and we are
trying to identify its ability to
respond to a disruption anywhere
in the business on our supply chain and
business performance and so it's
appropriate to illustrate our framework
our concept
uh with the original implementation add
default model company here is a
simplified version of fault supply chain
just to illustrate the complexity in
tier one we have about 6 000 suppliers
in this supply chain there are about 60
000 components that flow between the
different facilities initial
implementation was at the North America
assembly facilities in the initial
discussion with the leadership at Ford
they asked where should we focus our
attention in terms of supply chain
resiliency and risk mitigation strategy
the supply chain is too complex
procurement it fold had their own answer
procurement suggested recommended to the
leadership to focus on strategic
suppliers who are strategic suppliers
strategic suppliers Supply will fold
spend huge amount of money with each
supplier every year and the leadership
ask us if this is the case or maybe we
should focus elsewhere and so to answer
that question I'm going to introduce a
couple of Concepts the first one is time
to recover time to recover is associated
with a specific facility or a region
consider for example the chemical
supplier we try to identify how long it
takes a chemical Supply to recover to
full functionality after A disruption
talking to this supplier the supplier
identify time to recover to be two weeks
why it's two weeks because now they
provide food with chemical foamy
facilities that the company has in China
if there is a disruption they can switch
production and wrap up capacity to a
facility in Singapore and it takes about
two weeks now there are many supply
chain people here and immediately you
have multiple questions about time to
recover the fails time to recover is
scenario dependent so associated with
time to recover I need to identify what
is a scenario the second if I connect
with a specific supplier and try to
identify their time to recover Supply is
going to be optimistic they know that if
they tell us time to recovery six months
it's going to be a big problem and so we
need to compliment time to recover with
kpis that are more objective and I will
show you in a second but suppose we
validated the information about the time
to recover from this chemical supplier
we can now calculate performance impact
what is performance impact this is the
impact on fold bottom line when this
supplier is down for two weeks an
important requirement in our ability to
calculate performance impact is supply
chain mapping so our starting point was
mapping the entire supply chain building
a digital twin that represents the
supplier and then in this simplified
example we estimated that the
performance impact on Revenue associated
with the disruption at this supply for
two weeks is about 400 million dollars
you understand that under the hood we
have an analytics that allocate the
available resources after the disruption
in effective way to try to achieve
certain objectives that Ford is focusing
on so these are at a high level two
important Concepts let me now show you a
data straight from the fold system and
you can see two insights on this slide
on the left hand side
you see a figure with thousands of
bubbles each bubble represents a tier
one supplier
on the y coordinate I am showing you
spin annual spend at each one of the of
the supplier to protect fold
confidential information I just don't
show you the value but you immediately
see that the suppliers there at the top
is a strategic supplier for spend huge
amount of money with this supplier here
are three other suppliers it can be
considered strategic suppliers for spend
a huge amount of money with each one of
them on the x coordinate I have
performance impact
fold is looking at impact on profit
during A disruption at each one of the
suppliers you can see immediately that
the Strategic suppliers expose the
company to some risk I would say
moderate
the risky supplier are actually not the
Strategic supplier they are all at the
bottom right hand side I love this
supplier the one that I'm pointing out
to this is a tiny suppliers that provide
fault with components that cost 20 cents
but if Supply is disrupted huge impact
on bottom line ask yourself the
following question how many procurement
executive go to sleep and seeing oh this
time is supplier is my riskiest supplier
certainly not at fault
that's why I say in supply chain risk is
hidden in unexpected places here is
another Snapshot from the fourth system
where you see the Tier 1 suppliers by
location each bubble is a tier one
supplier the size of the bubble is
proportional to the risk that this
supplier exposed forward to and you can
see fails fold as North America assembly
facilities receive Supply from suppliers
in North America in Europe and in Asia
and risky suppliers are everywhere there
is an idea especially in North America
that if you false suppliers and
Manufacturing facilities to move
closer to market demand you are going
necessarily to increase resiliency this
is not supported by data that's why I am
saying be careful with the idea of just
pushing supplier from one country to
another that may be important for many
reasons but on its own does not
guarantee resiliency and as I was
explaining to one of the members here
we had during the pandemic many examples
of domestic supply chain in the U.S that
were affected by covid and created
enormous shortage especially in the food
and beverage industry now remember that
we need also a kpi that is independent
of scenario and it's independent of
information received from the supplier
and that's what I call time to survive
what is time to survive
time to survive you remove a facility
from the supply chain and you ask how
long can I make Supply with the men
without that facility it's not zero
because a pipeline is full with
inventory but I can calculate it
and you can see on this slide
detailed information about Ford
suppliers and component time to survive
on the x coordinate I'm showing you time
to survive in weeks so you can see one
day two days three days one week
10 days all the way to two weeks 30
weeks 50 weeks they had suppliers and
component so it's time to survive was 60
70 even 100 weeks
just by looking at this slide you see a
challenge and an opportunity the
challenge is associated with all the
suppliers on the left hand side these
are the suppliers time to survive is
very short one day two days I don't care
what they tell me I know these are risky
Supply because if they are disrupted
enormous impact on bottom line
the light inside suggests a big business
opportunity why it's a big business
opportunity because for some component
for time to survive these 100 weeks why
is it 100 weeks because Ford is sitting
on a lot of inventory if I just cut
inventory by 20 or 30 percent
I can cut costs and still have a very
long time to survive and so let me close
this section by highlighting the
importance of understanding Financial
impact of A disruption by building a
digital twin looking around the corner
to identify hidden risk and using a new
kpi let me
give insight about the kpis that I'm
using here and and the insight about the
kpi that I'm using here time to survive
time to recover and performance impact
the best way to describe them is to
borrow an Insight from Sports
I don't play Ice Hockey but I like to
watch ice hockey Wayne Gretzky one of
the most famous players in that game
used to say I don't skate to where the
pack is I skate to where the pack is
going to be this is what we are doing
here we are identifying potential
problems it will hit our supply chain in
the future and we want to take
mitigation strategies today before they
hit the supply chain I like this to
quotes from Ford and Schneider Electric
fault VP of product development and
purchasing saying if you can do that
develop a digital twin and use time to
recover time to survive in performance
impact you can identify and prioritize
your risk mitigation activities and net
Clayton
in a talk that I gave with a net in
September of last year
basically said we implemented this
concept and these types of ideas
it help us improve our business
performance and she said leveraging Digi
digitization was very critical you can
automate these capabilities and when you
use Concepts such as time to survive in
time to recover you keep your business
and growth healthy and keep your
customer and shareholder happy
yeah okay so the old idea you know I
think the concept I've been there for
for years you know for the start of this
residency Journal years ago but the
question becomes you know how can we
equipment how can we leverage data
analytics so that you know all our
clients can be ready can be residency
ready and you know develop unique
capabilities to manage and optimize
resiliency and again it's all about
developing a resiliency management as a
routine and a management core process
because we are you know we know
disruptions is coming and you have to to
become a residency savings so basically
three simple steps
start by the high-level maturity
assessment I'm not going to spend time
on that we've got specific industry
Benchmark to you know engage the
discussion where do you stand then the
most important step is about building
the digital twin I think this morning
there was a question how many companies
do have a digital twin today I think
we're in the range of 10 percent
if you want to be in the very best if
you want to be a best performer in
residency you need a digital twin and
we're going to show you how it what we
develop to equip our clients with this
stuff and finally most importantly you
know stress tests come up with multiple
scenarios to see at the climate
disruption Supply shortage Talent you
know geopolitical crisis what is the
impact on my Revenue because uh to
David's point you know we're not
interested in what overall risk how does
it impact my bottom line
so you know maturity score just to size
a stake and you know and put the topic
on the table most importantly you know
get the visibility with the digital twin
and we to your point we are going at the
material Level at the bit of material
because this is where you're relevant
this is where you can really calculate
your uh your impact on the revenues and
we are going to end tier suppliers
which is the beauty of digital twin you
know you're not only looking at tier one
you're looking at tier two tier 3 tier
four and I'm sure in this room you have
many experience you know you knew about
your tier one but you didn't know that
the tier three was located in Poland
Ukraine or during the float in Malaysia
and you are stuck so the simple digital
twin is providing you a first Insight in
terms of overall visibility where are my
risk and from there what we do we apply
stress test in a scenario looking at
different options duration different
type of Crisis to come up with an
overall residency score but more
importantly to look at what are the
options what are the mitigating actions
with this Automotive suppliers that we
presented we came up with a 15-20
priorities but the first three were
reducing sixty percent of the overall
risk so this helps you prioritize and
decide where you need to invest dual
sourcing inventory you know redesigning
the parts you've got the priorities
because we all know resiliency is
costing a lot and you want to become
resiliency 2.0 which means cost
effective resiliency because if you're
piling up inventory you know this will
not help you with your bottom line
so what is the outcome we come up with a
residency dashboard because providing
you a residency score and saying how you
make how you're doing versus competition
and as I said most importantly what are
the potential alternative scenarios and
now the reaction of the seal was you
know when we are the floating in Germany
he asked you know what's going to happen
to me
and he said and so in a question of days
the team was able to respond you know
this is what we need to do how can we
switch from one place to the other what
type of suppliers and your direction you
know whatever has this question you know
two months ago it would have taken me
something like two months to get the
answer so I think the name of the game
you know time to reaction time to
absorption and this is what we're trying
to to do and again with this idea that
residency management is becoming a core
process that's got to be part of
procurement and supply chain and this is
where we see the market heading
the video You're the academics here so
you want to to close so just to
summarize what we have learned
through now dozens and dozens of
implementation remember I started in the
automotive industry since then we have
implemented in Semiconductor in cpg
um high-tech here are the four key
insight
much like clean resiliency is is a
philosophy which means that when
companies optimize decision in their
supply chain they need to find the right
balance between efficiency they've been
doing this for a long time resiliency
and business performance and he told in
order to do that very well you need to
build you to start with supply chain
mapping build a digital twin of the
supply chain and use new kpis that
companies and supply chain professionals
have not used Before Time to cover time
to survive in performance impact this
allows you to identify hidden release
to build flexibility and redundancy
where you need it
to identify to measure changes in your
resiliency exposure and to respond when
an event happens anywhere in your
business
let us stop heal
Jason perfect so to kind of translate
this from the past in an academic
approach to the reality of today if we
just you know focus on Europe with the
energy crisis there are a lot of raw
materials take aluminum for example that
the cost of energy can make the cost of
production prohibitive if we look back
during covid at the continued
semiconductor crisis
uh we're dealing with a situation in
case of building resiliency is is a
major effort so I'd love to kind of ask
both of you your thoughts on how do we
look at this from a current lens and
take semiconductor as an example
so semiconductor is really a great
example because a lot multiple
Industries are struggling and the reason
the timing of that question is great
Jason is because we just finished a lot
it completed the loud project with
Denzel which is a very large supplier in
the automotive industry modeling the
inter-supply chain starting with wafer
manufacturing and I'll give you two
types of insight insightful supply chain
professional but also policy related
insight for supply chain professional
what we learn with data from that
industry focus of demand in the
automotive industry is it today there is
not enough capacity for the
semiconductor requirements that the
automotive industry needs and it's
projected based on the data that we have
to last at least until the middle of
next year more importantly
if you think about the China Taiwan
situation what we found that a short
disruption
say for 10 days
we'll have a ripple effect that affects
the entire supply chain for at least 12
months
that is to say to just go back after a
10-day disruption of wafer manufacturing
say because of the tension in Asia
to go back to where we are today which
is not perfect because of the shortages
will take at least 12 months these are
the the supply chain inside but there
are policy inside that are very
important and I was pleased to see that
the economic report by the
U.S president team looking at uh how to
improve supply chain uh Prospect
emphasize this type of technology and we
basically had a discussion with the with
representative from the White House on
two policy inside the first one which is
very important is there are a lot of
investment now geared in North America
towards semiconductor manufacturing
facilities
but you need to build for resiliency
just investing in in semiconductor
Manufacturing in the US may be very
important but by itself does not
guarantee resiliency remember my company
comment uh earlier about other domestic
Supply chains that were affected
dramatically during the pandemic the
second important observation is that it
will take two to three years until these
facilities are live until these
facilities start producing product we
need to make sure that we have an
ability to respond within the next two
to three years before these facilities
come and become operational
embedding a resilience into your supply
chain is one thing but reacting faster
versus competition we we are we have
procurement professional you know the
typical resiliency policies to go from
monosource to dual source but if you are
reacting uh two weeks after a
competition most probably you know the
capacity of the second suppliers will
already mobilize so dual shorter is only
a residency measure if you are reacting
faster versus competition so the time to
reaction is becoming absolutely clear
and this is why you need the data
if you wait too long you're stuck so
having your inventory having a dual
sourcing having that's great
but most importantly you need to react
faster and right now you know if you
look at Transportation we're working for
a automotive suppliers they have one
billion on Transportation they are stuck
they are profitability they need to come
up with solution and it's all about
playing with this agility so yeah as a
procurement and supply chain
professional you need to be equipped to
manage this disruption otherwise you're
you're just in the victim ship mode well
what can I do you know price of energy
are exploding by uh I want to look at
Serato fertilizer they had to stop
plants in Europe because of the the
price of energy was too high so there
are certain situations where you can do
nothing but also situations where you
can react and and react faster versus
competition this is where you can create
competitive Advantage maybe one way to
demonstrate this is to understand that
here we are complementing kpis this is
what most companies are doing which is
focusing on the current state of the
supply chain with what I call in my
publication kpp key performance
predictor I'm trying to predict what
will be the state of the supply chain
six seven eight weeks from now because
if I can identify a potential problem
that will hit my supply chain seven
weeks from now I can respond now and
avoid the problems that otherwise would
hit my business that's why speed is so
important that's why complementing kpis
with kpp is critical for procurement and
supply chain professionals
gentlemen thank you I have 10 other
questions I would love to ask you but
we'll have time in the future I'm sure
thank you both thank you
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