Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison

Summary

The speaker discusses the rise of China as the most significant international challenge of our time, comparing it to historical power shifts like that of Athens and Sparta. The rapid growth of China's economy and global influence is creating tensions with the United States, the current global leader. Drawing from Thucydides' analysis of rising and ruling powers, the speaker highlights the risk of conflict. However, they emphasize the need for creative solutions to avoid war and manage this power shift peacefully, invoking the post-WWII international order as an example of bold, imaginative leadership.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The rise of China is the biggest international challenge the world will face for the foreseeable future.
• 📈 China's growth is unprecedented, lifting millions out of poverty and rapidly challenging the U.S. as a global superpower.
• ⚔️ Historically, when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, 12 out of 16 cases have resulted in war, according to a review of the past 500 years.
• 🧠 The 'Thucydides Trap' describes the dynamic where fear and competition between a rising power (like China) and a ruling power (like the U.S.) can lead to conflict.
• 🏛️ The speaker introduces Thucydides, an ancient Greek historian, whose insights about the rise of Athens and the reaction of Sparta are applicable to modern-day U.S.-China relations.
• 🚧 China's rapid infrastructure development, such as the Sanyuan Bridge renovation in 43 hours, starkly contrasts with the slower processes in the U.S.
• 🇨🇳 Chinese President Xi Jinping has set ambitious goals for China, aiming for global dominance in technology by 2025 and unambiguous leadership by 2049.
• 💡 The speaker warns that without bold, imaginative solutions, the U.S. and China may follow historical patterns toward catastrophic war.
• 📜 History provides lessons, such as the post-WWII creation of the international order, where unconventional ideas led to peace and prosperity.
• 💭 The speaker calls for creative, out-of-the-box thinking to avoid repeating historical mistakes and to manage the U.S.-China rivalry peacefully.

Q & A

What is the biggest international story of the speaker's professional lifetime?

The rise of China is described as the biggest international story of the speaker's professional lifetime and the most important international challenge the world will face for the foreseeable future.

How does the speaker describe the challenge posed by China's rise?

The challenge is the impact of China's rise on the United States and the international order, which the US has been the principal architect and guardian of for the past century.

What historical comparison does the speaker use to explain the US-China rivalry?

The speaker refers to the past 500 years, where there have been 16 cases of rising powers threatening to displace ruling powers. In 12 of these cases, the rivalry ended in war, such as Athens versus Sparta or Germany versus Britain before World War I.

How has China's economy changed over the last 40 years?

In 1978, 90% of China's one billion citizens were living on less than two dollars a day. By 2018, fewer than 1% of China's population remained under that poverty threshold, marking a rapid economic transformation.

What is 'Thucydides’s Trap' and how does it relate to the US-China relationship?

'Thucydides’s Trap' is a term coined by the speaker to describe the dangerous dynamic when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, potentially leading to conflict. The US-China relationship is seen as an example of this trap, similar to Athens and Sparta.

Who is Thucydides, and why is he relevant to the speaker's argument?

Thucydides was an ancient Greek historian who wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. He observed that the rise of Athens and the fear it instilled in Sparta made war inevitable. This dynamic, known as 'Thucydides’s Trap,' is used by the speaker to explain the current tensions between the US and China.

What are China's strategic goals according to President Xi Jinping?

China's strategic goals include becoming the dominant power in key technologies by 2025, the global innovation leader by 2035, and achieving unambiguous global leadership, including military dominance, by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

What historical examples does the speaker use to illustrate the danger of rivalries between rising and ruling powers?

The speaker uses examples like World War I, where the rise of Germany threatened British dominance, and the conflict was sparked by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. The speaker argues that similarly, small provocations today, such as actions by North Korea, could spark larger conflicts.

How does the speaker describe the economic shift between the US and China?

In 2004, China's economy was half the size of the US's. By 2014, the economies were equal, and by 2024, China's economy is projected to be 50% larger than the US economy. This shift creates tension as China challenges American economic leadership.

What solutions does the speaker propose to avoid conflict between the US and China?

The speaker calls for creative, out-of-the-box thinking to find ways to manage the rivalry without resorting to war. He points to the post-World War II order, where international institutions like the UN and NATO were created through imaginative efforts, as an example of how countries can work together for peace.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 The Rise of China: A Global Shift

This paragraph introduces the topic of China’s meteoric rise as the most important international challenge of our time. It contrasts the dominance of the U.S. during the 'American Century' with China’s rapid ascent in global power, which has caused a major disruption to the international order. The speaker highlights the historical significance of rising powers and draws comparisons with other instances of rivalry between dominant and rising nations, leading to a discussion on the potential consequences of China’s rise.

05:03

📜 Thucydides’ Trap: Historical Rivalries and Conflict

In this section, the speaker presents the concept of 'Thucydides's Trap,' a historical pattern where a rising power threatens a ruling power, leading to tension and, often, war. Thucydides, an ancient Greek historian, observed this dynamic in the war between Athens and Sparta. The speaker applies this to the modern-day rivalry between the U.S. and China, suggesting that understanding this pattern helps make sense of the current geopolitical climate. The paragraph ends with a call to avoid repeating history and finding peaceful solutions to these power shifts.

10:06

🚀 China’s Ambitious Future Plans

This paragraph outlines China's bold goals for global dominance, particularly in technology. With specific targets for 2025, 2035, and 2049, China aims to lead in industries like artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The speaker notes how China's progress will inevitably challenge U.S. dominance, especially in technology and economic power. He emphasizes how rapidly China has grown and how this shift will increasingly affect the global balance of power.

15:08

⚖️ The Imminent Consequences of Power Shifts

Here, the speaker reflects on the potential outcomes of the U.S.-China rivalry. The discussion touches on how past historical power transitions have led to war, often unintentionally triggered by third-party events, as seen in World War I. The speaker raises concerns about the possibility of a similar spiral between the U.S. and China, particularly under the leadership of figures like Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with provocations from other countries like North Korea. The paragraph ends by posing the grave question of whether the U.S. and China can avoid a catastrophic conflict.

💡 A Call for Creative Solutions to Avoid Conflict

In the final paragraph, the speaker appeals to the audience to think outside the box to find solutions for avoiding war between the U.S. and China. He highlights the need for imaginative thinking, akin to the post-World War II reconstruction efforts, which created lasting international institutions like the United Nations and NATO. The speaker emphasizes the urgency of the situation, calling for a collective surge of creativity to build a peaceful global order in the 21st century. He concludes by stressing the importance of learning from history to prevent repeating past mistakes.

Keywords

💡Thucydides's Trap

Thucydides's Trap is a concept coined by the speaker, derived from the writings of the ancient historian Thucydides. It describes the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, leading to tensions and potential conflict. In the context of the video, this concept is used to explain the rising tensions between China (the rising power) and the US (the ruling power), highlighting the historical pattern where such situations often lead to war.

💡Rise of China

The rise of China refers to the rapid economic, military, and technological advancements that China has made over the last several decades. The speaker emphasizes how China's growth challenges the current international order, particularly the US, which has been the dominant global power. China's ascent is framed as unprecedented, with the speaker citing China's reduction of poverty and technological achievements as examples of its rapid progress.

💡American Century

The 'American Century' is a term used to describe the period during the last 100 years when the United States has been the dominant global power, shaping the international order. The speaker refers to this era to highlight how Americans are accustomed to their position at the top of the global hierarchy, which makes the rise of China a profound and unsettling challenge for the US.

💡International Order

The international order refers to the global system of rules, norms, and institutions that govern international relations, often shaped by dominant powers. The speaker emphasizes that the current international order has been largely crafted and maintained by the United States. China’s rise is seen as a potential disruptor of this order, posing a challenge to the established global structure.

💡Sparta and Athens

Sparta and Athens are ancient Greek city-states used as metaphors to describe the dynamic between a ruling power (Sparta) and a rising power (Athens) in Thucydides's history. In the video, this historical example is used to parallel the current situation between the US (as Sparta) and China (as Athens), illustrating how the rise of a new power often leads to tension and conflict with the established power.

💡Tectonic Change

Tectonic change refers to a profound and large-scale shift in global dynamics, such as the economic and geopolitical transformations resulting from China’s rise. The speaker uses this term to emphasize the magnitude of the changes happening in the global power structure, particularly the shift in economic dominance from the US to China, which will have wide-reaching consequences for the world.

💡Great Power War

A great power war refers to large-scale conflicts between the world's most powerful nations. The speaker highlights the fact that such wars have been avoided for over 70 years due to the post-World War II international order. However, with the rise of China, the fear of another great power conflict becomes a pressing concern, particularly given the historical tendency for rivalries between rising and ruling powers to lead to war.

💡Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping is the President of China and is portrayed in the video as a highly ambitious and competent leader. The speaker notes Xi's vision for China, which includes becoming the world's dominant power in key technologies by 2025, innovation leader by 2035, and the strongest global power by 2049. Xi's leadership and the strategic goals he has set for China are central to understanding the nation's rise and its implications for global power dynamics.

💡Economic Rivalry

Economic rivalry refers to the competition between nations for economic dominance, particularly in terms of GDP, trade, and technological leadership. In the context of the video, the economic rivalry between the US and China is a key element of their broader geopolitical conflict, with China already surpassing the US in some areas of technological innovation and trade partnerships. This rivalry is seen as a potential source of tension and conflict.

💡World War I

World War I is referenced as an example of how seemingly minor events, such as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, can trigger catastrophic global conflicts. The speaker uses this historical analogy to caution against the risk of a similar escalation between the US and China, suggesting that even small provocations could lead to unintended war between these great powers.

Highlights

The biggest international story and challenge of our time is the rise of China.

China's rapid rise is unparalleled, impacting the United States and the international order.

The concept of 'Thucydides's Trap' explains the tension when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power.

Historically, 12 out of 16 cases where a rising power challenged a ruling power ended in war.

China's transformation over the past 40 years has lifted millions out of poverty.

China aims to be the dominant global power by 2049, with significant milestones set for 2025 and 2035.

Xi Jinping's goal is to make China 'great again,' with ambitious plans for technological and military advancement.

The US-China rivalry is viewed through the lens of Thucydides's Trap, with potential for conflict if not managed.

The speed and efficiency of China's infrastructure projects contrast sharply with those in the United States.

A third-party provocation often triggers the descent into war between a rising and a ruling power.

The rise of China and the reaction of the US create a dangerous dynamic that needs careful management.

There is a pressing need for innovative and out-of-the-box thinking to manage the US-China rivalry.

Historical examples, like the Marshall Plan and the creation of the United Nations, show the power of imaginative solutions.

A new international order was created after WWII, allowing for unprecedented peace and prosperity.

We need a similar surge of imagination and creativity today to avoid repeating the mistakes of history.

Transcripts

So, let me thank you for the opportunity to talk about

the biggest international story of your professional lifetime,

which is also the most important international challenge

the world will face for as far as the eye can see.

The story, of course, is the rise of China.

Never before have so many people risen so far so fast,

on so many different dimensions.

The challenge is the impact of China's rise --

the discombobulation this will cause the Unites States

and the international order,

of which the US has been the principal architect and guardian.

The past 100 years have been what historians now call an "American Century."

Americans have become accustomed to their place

at the top of every pecking order.

So the very idea of another country

that could be as big and strong as the US -- or bigger --

strikes many Americans as an assault on who they are.

For perspective on what we're now seeing in this rivalry,

it's useful to locate it on the larger map of history.

The past 500 years have seen 16 cases

in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power.

Twelve of those ended in war.

So just in November, we'll all pause to mark the 100th anniversary

of the final day of a war that became so encompassing,

that it required historians to create an entirely new category: world war.

So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day

of the 11th month in 1918,

the guns of World War I fell silent,

but 20 million individuals lay dead.

I know that this is a sophisticated audience,

so you know about the rise of China.

I'm going to focus, therefore, on the impact of China's rise,

on the US, on the international order

and on the prospects for war and peace.

But having taught at Harvard over many years,

I've learned that from time to time, it's useful to take a short pause,

just to make sure we're all on the same page.

The way I do this is, I call a time-out,

I give students a pop quiz -- ungraded, of course.

So, let's try this. Time-out, pop quiz.

Question:

forty years ago, 1978, China sets out on its march to the market.

At that point, what percentage of China's one billion citizens

were struggling to survive on less than two dollars a day?

Take a guess -- 25 percent?

Fifty?

Seventy-five?

Ninety.

What do you think?

Ninety.

Nine out of every 10 on less than two dollars a day.

Twenty eighteen, 40 years later.

What about the numbers?

What's your bet?

Take a look.

Fewer than one in 100 today.

And China's president has promised that within the next three years,

those last tens of millions will have been raised up

above that threshold.

So it's a miracle, actually, in our lifetime.

Hard to believe.

But brute facts are even harder to ignore.

A nation that didn't even appear on any of the international league tables

25 years ago

has soared,

to rival -- and in some areas, surpass -- the United States.

Thus, the challenge that will shape our world:

a seemingly unstoppable rising China

accelerating towards an apparently immovable ruling US,

on course for what could be the grandest collision in history.

To help us get our minds around this challenge,

I'm going to introduce you to a great thinker,

I'm going to present a big idea,

and I'm going to pose a most consequential question.

The great thinker is Thucydides.

Now, I know his name is a mouthful,

and some people have trouble pronouncing it.

So, let's do it, one, two, three, together:

Thucydides.

One more time: Thucydides.

So who was Thucydides?

He was the father and founder of history.

He wrote the first-ever history book.

It's titled "The History of the Peloponnesian War,"

about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago.

So if nothing else today, you can tweet your friends,

"I met a great thinker.

And I can even pronounce his name: Thucydides."

So, about this war that destroyed classical Greece,

Thucydides wrote famously:

"It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta

that made the war inevitable."

So the rise of one

and the reaction of the other

create a toxic cocktail of pride,

arrogance, paranoia,

that drug them both to war.

Which brings me to the big idea:

Thucydides's Trap.

"Thucydides's Trap" is a term I coined several years ago,

to make vivid Thucydides's insight.

Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs

when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power,

like Athens --

or Germany 100 years ago, or China today --

and their impact on Sparta,

or Great Britain 100 years ago, or the US today.

As Henry Kissinger has said,

once you get this idea, this concept of Thucydides's Trap in your head,

it will provide a lens

for helping you look through the news and noise of the day

to understand what's actually going on.

So, to the most consequential question about our world today:

Are we going to follow in the footsteps of history?

Or can we, through a combination of imagination and common sense

and courage

find a way to manage this rivalry

without a war nobody wants,

and everybody knows would be catastrophic?

Give me five minutes to unpack this,

and later this afternoon, when the next news story pops up for you

about China doing this, or the US reacting like that,

you will be able to have a better understanding of what's going on

and even to explain it to your friends.

So as we saw with this flipping the pyramid of poverty,

China has actually soared.

It's meteoric.

Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel, I think, put it best.

He said, "All this has happened so fast, we haven't yet had time to be astonished."

(Laughter)

To remind myself how astonished I should be,

I occasionally look out the window in my office in Cambridge

at this bridge, which goes across the Charles River,

between the Kennedy School and Harvard Business School.

In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said they were going to renovate this bridge,

and it would take two years.

In 2014, they said it wasn't finished.

In 2015, they said it would take one more year.

In 2016, they said it's not finished,

we're not going to tell you when it's going to be finished.

Finally, last year, it was finished -- three times over budget.

Now, compare this to a similar bridge that I drove across last month in Beijing.

It's called the Sanyuan Bridge.

In 2015, the Chinese decided they wanted to renovate that bridge.

It actually has twice as many lanes of traffic.

How long did it take for them to complete the project?

Twenty fifteen, what do you bet?

Take a guess -- OK, three --

Take a look.

(Laughter)

The answer is 43 hours.

(Audience: Wow!)

(Laughter)

Graham Allison: Now, of course, that couldn't happen in New York.

(Laughter)

Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader

and a government that works.

The most ambitious and most competent leader

on the international stage today is Chinese President Xi Jinping.

And he's made no secret about what he wants.

As he said when he became president six years ago,

his goal is to make China great again --

(Laughter)

a banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this.

To that end, Xi Jinping has announced specific targets for specific dates:

2025, 2035, 2049.

By 2025, China means to be the dominant power

in the major market in 10 leading technologies,

including driverless cars, robots,

artificial intelligence, quantum computing.

By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader

across all the advanced technologies.

And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary

of the founding of the People's Republic,

China means to be unambiguously number one,

including, [says] Xi Jinping, an army that he calls "Fight and Win."

So these are audacious goals, but as you can see,

China is already well on its way

to these objectives.

And we should remember how fast our world is changing.

Thirty years ago,

the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented.

Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly?

Obviously, the current number one.

As China gets bigger and stronger and richer,

technologically more advanced,

it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives.

Now, for red-blooded Americans --

and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I'm from North Carolina --

there's something wrong with this picture.

The USA means number one, that's who we are.

But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore.

Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this

to his Senate Armed Services Committee.

And I made for them a chart that you can see,

that said, compare the US and China

to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground,

each represented by the size of their economy.

As late as 2004, China was just half our size.

By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours.

And on the current trajectory, by 2024, it will be half again larger.

The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere.

For example, in the current trade conflict,

China is already the number one trading partner

of all the major Asian countries.

Which brings us back to our Greek historian.

Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File" has reviewed the last 500 years of history

and found 16 cases in which a rising power

threatened to displace a ruling power.

Twelve of these ended in war.

And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these

did either of the protagonists want a war;

few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power

or the ruling power.

So how does this work?

What happens is, a third party's provocation

forces one or the other to react,

and that sets in motion a spiral,

which drags the two somewhere they don't want to go.

If that seems crazy, it is.

But it's life.

Remember World War I.

The provocation in that case

was the assassination of a second-level figure,

Archduke Franz Ferdinand,

which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor

to issue an ultimatum to Serbia,

they dragged in the various allies,

within two months, all of Europe was at war.

So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today.

What would he say?

Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power

than Donald J Trump?

(Laughter)

Or a more apt lead for the rising power than Xi Jinping?

And he would scratch his head

and certainly say he couldn't think of more colorful provocateur

than North Korea's Kim Jong-un.

Each seems determined to play his assigned part

and is right on script.

So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question,

the question that will have the gravest consequences

for the rest of our lives:

Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war

that would be catastrophic for both?

Or can we summon the imagination and courage

to find a way to survive together,

to share the leadership in the 21st century,

or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create a new form of great power relations?

That's the issue I've been pursuing passionately

for the last two years.

I've had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen

to leaders of all the relevant governments --

Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo --

and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business.

I wish I had more to report.

The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware

of this Thucydidean dynamic

and the dangers that it poses.

The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan

for escaping history as usual.

So it's clear to me that we need some ideas

outside the box of conventional statecraft --

indeed, from another page or another space --

which is what brings me to TED today

and which brings me to a request.

This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet,

who get up in the morning and think

not only about how to manage the world we have,

but how to create worlds that should be.

So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it,

some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,

that when we find, will make a difference in this space.

And just to remind you if you do,

this won't be the first time.

Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II.

A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others,

not just from government, but from the world of culture and business,

engaged in a collective surge of imagination.

And what they imagined and what they created

was a new international order,

the order that's allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives,

without great power war

and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet.

So, a remarkable story.

Interestingly, every pillar of this project that produced these results,

when first proposed,

was rejected by the foreign policy establishment

as naive or unrealistic.

My favorite is the Marshall Plan.

After World War II, Americans felt exhausted.

They had demobilized 10 million troops,

they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda.

But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was

and how aggressive Soviet communism was,

Americans eventually decided to tax themselves

a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years

and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries,

including Germany and Italy,

whose troops had just been killing Americans.

Amazing.

This also created the United Nations.

Amazing.

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

The World Bank.

NATO.

All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity.

So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again.

And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity,

informed by history,

for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us,

in the end, only those who refuse to study history

are condemned to repeat it.

Thank you.

(Applause)