NVDA Stock - Where's NVIDIA Going Next?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the host analyzes post-earnings price action, noting the stock closed around $180 after a volatile session. While slightly bearish in the short term, he highlights that breaking above $183–184 could trigger a bullish move toward $200, whereas a drop below $170–175 may present strong buying opportunities. The video covers technical levels, Fibonacci support and resistance, potential risk/reward scenarios, and notable options flow, emphasizing that despite short-term fluctuations, Nvidia’s long-term trend remains strong. Overall, viewers gain actionable insights on potential setups, key levels to watch, and market sentiment shaping Nvidia’s next moves.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia's price closed down 2% at $180, underperforming the broader market.
• 📉 Despite a morning rally, Nvidia's price retraced sharply, closing flat by the end of the day.
• 📊 Nvidia remains in a tight range between $179–$180, with a key resistance at $183–$184 and support around $170–$175.
• ⚖️ The stock is seen as slightly bearish in the short-term, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.
• 🔑 Confirmation of bullish momentum requires a break above $183–$184, turning it into support with daily candle closures.
• 🔴 A failure to break above the resistance level could lead to a bearish move, with potential price targets around $170 or $150.
• 🛍️ A 20% drop from the current price is not deemed impossible, but it would be viewed as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
• 💡 The market's tendency is to do what seems 'impossible,' whether that's a sharp drop or an unexpected rally.
• 💰 Nvidia's options flow is leaning bullish, with $43M in bullish flows vs. $32M in bearish flows, though late-day activity showed mixed sentiment.
• 📅 Keep an eye on Nvidia’s position within a rising channel; a break below this support could signal a short-term bearish trend.

Q & A

What was Nvidia's closing price on the day discussed in the video?

Nvidia closed at approximately $180 per share, representing a decline of about 0.82% on the day.

How did Nvidia's price action behave immediately after the market opened?

Nvidia experienced a strong rally in the morning, but this was followed by a complete collapse back down, eventually recovering to end the day fairly flat.

What is the present sentiment of the analyst regarding Nvidia's short-term trend?

The analyst leans slightly bearish, noting that the stock is currently sandwiched in a tight price range and struggling to maintain levels above key Fibonacci support.

Which technical level does the analyst consider crucial for confirming a bullish trend?

Daily closures above $183 to $184 per share and turning this level into support are considered critical for confirming bullish momentum.

What potential upside target does the analyst see if Nvidia successfully breaks above $183 to $184?

If Nvidia breaks above this level and establishes support, a technical target near $200 per share, possibly experiencing a short squeeze, becomes realistic.

What downside risks does the analyst identify for Nvidia?

If Nvidia fails to hold key support levels in the mid-$170s, it could make lower lows and lower highs, potentially dropping toward the $150 range on the weekly chart.

How does the analyst view Nvidia's stock in terms of long-term potential?

Despite short-term bearishness, the analyst believes that Nvidia, being a strong and large stock, will ultimately resolve higher over time, with even a 20% retracement being considered a buying opportunity.

What recent options flow does the analyst highlight for Nvidia?

The analyst points out a bullish options flow with a notable $2.1 million call at $177.5 expiring tomorrow, along with several smaller bearish puts, totaling 43 million bullish flow versus 32 million bearish flow.

What scenario would make the analyst switch back to a bullish perspective?

A bullish perspective would be restored if Nvidia breaks above $183 to $184 and confirms support there, setting up the potential for a move toward $200 per share.

How does the analyst suggest approaching Nvidia trading in the current market context?

The analyst recommends patience, watching key technical levels, and using strategies like covered calls for those holding shares, while being mindful of risk-reward scenarios.

What other stocks does the analyst mention as attractive setups currently?

The analyst mentions Berkshire Hathaway, Apple, United, and UnitedHealthcare as stocks currently showing favorable risk-reward setups.

What does the analyst mean by describing Nvidia’s recent price action as a 'dead cat' scenario?

A 'dead cat' scenario refers to a temporary rebound following a sharp drop, which lacks sustained bullish momentum, suggesting the stock may still struggle until a breakout above key levels occurs.