NVDA Stock - Are Bulls In Control Still?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the presenter discusses the stock's recent performance, market trends, and technical analysis. Nvidia closed the day with a slight dip, underperforming compared to AMD. The focus is on key support levels, particularly around $179-$180, and the ongoing consolidation pattern. While the stock shows bullish momentum, concerns over elevated MACD and SMI indicators are noted. The presenter remains optimistic as long as critical levels hold, and offers insights into potential upside targets and options flow, including a notable bullish call before earnings.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia closed the day down by 0.9%, closing at $181.5 per share, underperforming compared to AMD, which gained 5.5%.
• 📈 AMD broke out of a bull flag and hit an upper target of $187, with potential for a cup and handle pattern forming.
• 💡 PPI data is an unknown catalyst for the market, and there’s a possibility of market reactions like fakeouts or volatile price movements.
• 📊 Nvidia's chart shows consolidation with some indecision, evident by multiple Doji candles, but bulls are still in control as long as the price stays above the key support range of $179–$180.
• 🔮 The bulls remain in control as long as the price holds above $179–$180 and doesn't close below these levels on a daily candle.
• 🧐 The stock is expected to follow a systematic, technical approach, respecting basic analysis, and traders could see further upside if the price breaks above the $183–$184 range.
• 💥 If Nvidia breaks above $183–$184, there's potential for a move to the low $190s, possibly pushing up to $200 per share into earnings.
• ⚠️ The MACD is highly elevated, signaling that Nvidia's stock could correct at some point, but no immediate signs of this correction are visible in the current data.
• 📉 A concern is the divergence between Nvidia’s price making higher highs, while the SMI indicator is making lower highs, suggesting potential weakness in momentum.
• 📅 Significant options flow activity includes a large call for $180 strike on August 29th and a bearish put for $165 strike in December, with bullish flow seen for a September 12th $185 strike.

Q & A

What is the main focus of this Nvidia daily update video?

The video provides an update on Nvidia's stock performance, technical analysis, and future outlook. The presenter also shares thoughts on potential price movements and provides insights on market trends affecting Nvidia.

What is the current market performance of Nvidia as discussed in the video?

Nvidia closed the day down about 0.9%, ending at $181.5 per share, which was underperforming compared to the market and especially AMD, which saw an impressive 5.5% increase.

What technical indicators are being used to analyze Nvidia's stock?

The video references key technical analysis tools such as volume, support levels (179-180), moving averages, candlestick patterns (specifically Doge candles), and the MACD indicator.

What are the potential risks or concerns identified in the analysis?

Some risks include the elevated MACD, which suggests that the stock might be due for a correction, and the potential for a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern if key support levels are lost.

What is the significance of the $179 to $180 support level for Nvidia?

As long as Nvidia remains above the $179 to $180 range and doesn't close multiple daily candles below this level, the bulls are still in control. If the stock fails to hold this support, it could lead to further bearish pressure.

What is the presenter’s outlook for Nvidia in the short term?

The presenter leans bullish as long as Nvidia holds above the key support levels of $179 to $180. If this level holds, the presenter expects a move higher, possibly reaching the low $190s in the short term.

What is the presenter’s long-term view on Nvidia's stock?

While the presenter remains bullish in the short term, they acknowledge that Nvidia will eventually face a correction. The key question is when this will happen, and the presenter expects the stock to eventually lose the current support levels and correct.

What are the key resistance levels for Nvidia's stock?

The key resistance levels are in the $183-$184 range. If Nvidia can break above this level and hold it as support, the stock could continue higher, with a possible target in the low $190s.

What type of pattern is the presenter anticipating for AMD?

The presenter mentions that AMD may be setting up a cup and handle pattern, which could potentially lead to a move higher if the handle forms and the stock breaks above the upper range.

How does Nvidia’s stock generally behave according to the presenter?

Nvidia's stock is described as systematic, with a tendency to respect technical analysis consistently. The presenter notes that it’s a relatively easy stock to trade if you follow its technical indicators, despite being a large-cap stock.