NVDA Stock - Whats Next For NVIDIA?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the host provides an in-depth analysis of Nvidia stock, focusing on its recent performance and what to expect moving forward. After a slight dip in Nvidia's stock price, the video explores key levels of support and resistance, with particular attention on the $180–$183 range. The host discusses potential scenarios for both bullish and bearish movements, considering AMD’s earnings and market sentiment. There’s also a look at long-term indicators such as the MACD and volume trends. Viewers are encouraged to monitor these levels closely for further insights into Nvidia’s next moves.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia stock is down 1% for the day, closing at $178.26, with a 6% drop in after-hours trading.
• 😀 The drop in Nvidia's stock price may be influenced by AMD's earnings and SMCI's performance.
• 😀 Nvidia's price showed a potential 'inside day' pattern, with support coming from the 9 Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
• 😀 The main question is whether Nvidia will continue its upward momentum or experience a correction.
• 😀 The 1-hour chart shows Nvidia approaching the Fibonacci resistance level around $180-$181, a crucial point to monitor for a potential reversal.
• 😀 If Nvidia's price drops below $175-$176, a stronger correction may occur, potentially reaching the mid-$160s.
• 😀 A bullish scenario exists if Nvidia breaks past the $181-$183 range, which could propel the stock towards $190.
• 😀 Weekly chart analysis reveals a slight increase in MACD, but not enough to confirm a strong bullish trend, with a possible risk of a pullback if weakness emerges.
• 😀 If Nvidia closes the week below $171, it could validate a bearish pattern and indicate a potential topping out of the rally.
• 😀 There is concern regarding Nvidia's rally on decreasing volume, as past rallies with similar characteristics resulted in significant sell-offs.
• 😀 Despite the technical analysis, options flow shows a bullish sentiment overall, with a 3:1 bullish-to-bearish ratio, indicating continued investor optimism.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video script?

The main focus of the video script is an update and analysis of Nvidia's stock performance, including market movements, technical analysis, and potential future trends.

What was the performance of Nvidia's stock on the day the video was recorded?

Nvidia's stock was down about 1% on the day, closing at $178.26, and down approximately 6% after hours.

What were the possible factors influencing Nvidia's stock drop?

The drop in Nvidia's stock could have been influenced by earnings reports from AMD and SMCI, with SMCI experiencing a larger drop (13.5%) and AMD down by about 4%.

What is the significance of the 9 exponential moving average (EMA) in the analysis?

The 9 EMA is seen as a key support level for Nvidia's stock, with the stock bouncing off it multiple times over the past weeks, though some signs of slowing momentum are noted.

What is the potential scenario for Nvidia if it faces a rejection at the 180-181 price range?

If Nvidia faces a rejection at the 180-181 price range, the stock may experience a pullback, potentially retesting lower levels like the mid-170s and possibly heading towards the mid-160s, which aligns with the bottom of a rising channel.

What needs to happen for Nvidia's stock to break above resistance levels and potentially rise to $190?

For Nvidia's stock to break above resistance and rise to $190, it would need to surpass the 181-183 resistance levels. A sustained break above these levels, particularly a break of 183, could pave the way for a move towards $190.

What role does the weekly chart play in the overall analysis?

The weekly chart is important for understanding the broader trend of Nvidia's stock. The video highlights the potential for weakness in the second half of the week if Nvidia closes below certain key levels or shows a negative MACD trend.

What does the MACD indicate about Nvidia's stock performance?

The MACD suggests that while Nvidia's stock has seen a rally, the recent movement shows only a slight increase in momentum, which could indicate potential weakness if the stock begins to print lower highs on the MACD.

How does volume impact the analysis of Nvidia's rally?

The analysis raises concerns about Nvidia's rally occurring on declining volume, which has historically preceded sell-offs. The video emphasizes the importance of monitoring volume trends as they may indicate the sustainability of the rally.

What does the options flow reveal about market sentiment?

The options flow reveals that the bulls are still in control overall, with a ratio of 3 to 1 in favor of bullish options. There was also a notable $2.8 million call at a 180 strike price, but the flow was generally mixed throughout the day.