When Will the Vehicle Supply Chain Recover?
Summary
TLDR在这段对话中,田纳西大学全球供应链研究所执行董事Shea Scott与Bob讨论了当前汽车供应链的状况。Scott指出,由于芯片短缺等问题,汽车行业仍面临严峻挑战,且短期内没有缓解迹象。他解释说,疫情期间汽车制造商大幅削减了芯片需求,导致芯片制造商将资源重新分配给其他产品,从而加剧了当前的困境。Scott还提到,除了芯片短缺,港口拥堵、卡车司机短缺等问题也对汽车行业产生了影响。此外,供应链问题导致新车和二手车价格上涨,消费者面临选择有限。Scott预测,这些问题可能需要一年以上的时间才能解决,这可能意味着汽车供应链将面临长期且根本性的改变。
Takeaways
- 🚗 目前汽车供应链仍面临挑战,尤其是芯片短缺问题导致福特等汽车制造商不得不暂时关闭设施。
- 📉 芯片短缺问题并非全国性问题,而是根据各汽车制造商与供应商的关系以及他们获取供应和优先级的能力而异。
- 🔄 疫情初期,汽车制造商大幅削减了预测,导致芯片供应中断,而芯片制造商则将供应重新分配给其他需求增长的产品。
- 🚀 丰田等有远见的公司通过提前购买芯片在问题初期受影响较小,但目前也开始面临芯片短缺问题。
- 🚚 除了芯片短缺,汽车行业还受到港口拥堵、卡车司机短缺等供应链问题的影响。
- 📈 新车和二手车价格因供应短缺而上涨,新车价格上升超过10%,二手车价格根据车型不同上涨约40%。
- 🛍️ 消费者现在很难找到自己想要的车型,与过去相比,消费者现在更愿意为更少的选择支付更高的价格。
- 🔍 一些汽车制造商,包括宝马等豪华品牌,开始减少或取消一些车型的触摸屏和其他高端功能。
- 🏭 短期内,汽车行业面临的挑战主要是零件短缺,而长期来看,可能需要基础性的改变,如新的供应设施或汽车设计的重构。
- ⏳ 尽管汽车生产商预计年底前会有所缓解,但芯片制造商对此持保留态度,预计至少未来12个月这些问题仍将持续。
- 🤔 汽车行业领导者正在探索多种解决方案,包括与芯片制造商合作增加供应,以及考虑汽车设计的改变,但目前尚不清楚最终结果如何。
Q & A
当前汽车供应链面临的最大挑战是什么?
-当前汽车供应链面临的最大挑战是半导体芯片的短缺,这导致了包括福特在内的多家汽车制造商不得不闲置设施。
为什么汽车制造商在芯片供应上遇到了问题?
-在疫情初期,汽车制造商大幅削减了芯片需求预测,从而退出了芯片供应链。芯片制造商随后将供应重新分配给了其他需求激增且利润更高的产品。
丰田汽车在芯片短缺问题上的表现如何?
-丰田汽车因有远见地提前购买芯片,在问题初期受影响较小。然而,随着时间的推移,即使是丰田也开始感受到芯片短缺的压力。
除了芯片短缺,汽车行业还面临哪些供应链问题?
-除了芯片短缺,汽车行业还受到港口拥堵、卡车和司机短缺等物流问题的影响。
供应链问题对新车和二手车价格有何影响?
-供应链问题导致新车价格上涨超过10%,二手车价格根据车型不同,同比上涨约40%。
消费者在购车时面临哪些挑战?
-消费者在购车时可能会发现难以找到所需的车型,而且可能没有定制选项,只能选择现车或者离开。
汽车制造商在减少哪些功能以应对零件短缺?
-一些汽车制造商,包括宝马在内,开始在一些车型中减少触摸屏的使用,而一些美国制造商则放弃了如加热座椅这样的标准配置。
汽车制造商预计何时能缓解零件短缺问题?
-汽车制造商预计到年底可能会有所缓解,但芯片制造商对此持保留态度,预计至少还需要12个月或更长时间来解决这些问题。
当前的供应链问题是否会导致汽车供应链的永久性变化?
-当前的问题可能会促使汽车供应链发生永久性变化,包括零件类型、汽车和零件的制造地点等。
汽车行业领导者正在考虑哪些解决方案来应对供应链问题?
-他们正在寻求芯片制造商增加供应、考虑设计变更,以及可能的制造地点调整等多种解决方案。
对于当前的汽车供应链问题,消费者应如何应对?
-鉴于当前供应链的不确定性,消费者可能需要考虑延长现有汽车的使用时间,而不是急于购买新车。
Outlines
🚗 汽车供应链现状讨论
在这段对话中,Bob与田纳西大学全球供应链研究所的执行董事Shea Scott教授讨论了当前汽车供应链的状况。他们讨论了汽车制造商面临的挑战,包括零部件和成品汽车的供应问题。特别指出了芯片短缺问题,这导致福特等汽车制造商不得不暂时关闭工厂。Shea Scott提到,汽车制造商在疫情初期大幅削减了芯片需求预测,导致芯片制造商将供应重新分配给其他产品,尤其是比汽车行业更有利可图的产品。此外,还提到了丰田等公司尽管采取了前瞻性措施,但仍然开始感受到芯片短缺的影响。
🔍 汽车行业面临的长期挑战
这段对话继续探讨了汽车行业的其他挑战,包括港口拥堵和卡车司机短缺等问题。讨论了这些因素如何影响新车和二手车的价格,以及消费者在购买时面临的选择限制。还提到了汽车制造商为了应对零部件短缺,开始减少一些车辆的豪华功能,如触摸屏和加热座椅等。Shea Scott教授还提到,尽管汽车制造商预计年底前会有所缓解,但芯片制造商对此并不乐观,预计至少在未来12个月内,这些问题仍将持续。最后,讨论了汽车供应链可能发生的长期变化,包括可能的重新设计和零部件供应的本地化。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链
💡芯片短缺
💡丰田
💡港口拥堵
💡汽车价格
💡汽车制造商
💡汽车特性
💡供应链管理
💡需求预测
💡长期变化
💡安全和可靠性
Highlights
目前汽车供应链仍然面临挑战,尤其是芯片短缺问题。
福特等汽车制造商因零件短缺而暂时关闭工厂。
芯片短缺问题在全国范围内普遍存在,影响程度因制造商与供应商关系而异。
疫情初期汽车制造商大幅削减预测,导致芯片供应中断。
芯片制造商将供应重新分配给其他产品,因为这些产品的利润通常高于汽车行业。
丰田等具有前瞻性的公司也开始感受到芯片短缺的影响。
汽车行业同样受到港口拥堵、卡车司机短缺等供应链问题的影响。
供应链问题导致新车和二手车价格上涨。
消费者难以找到所需车型,市场供需失衡。
宝马等豪华品牌减少车辆功能,如触摸屏和加热座椅。
汽车制造商正在寻求解决方案,包括重新设计车辆和增加芯片产能。
芯片短缺问题可能需要12个月或更长时间才能解决。
汽车行业可能面临永久性的供应链变化。
汽车行业领导者正在探索多种解决方案,包括芯片制造商的本土化和车辆设计的变更。
未来汽车设计可能会减少芯片使用,提高质量和可靠性。
汽车行业需重新考虑供应链结构,以应对当前和未来的挑战。
Transcripts
[Music]
the state of the vehicle supply chain is
the topic of my conversation today with
shea scott he is executive director of
the global supply chain institute and a
member of the faculty of the department
of marketing and supply chain management
at the university of tennessee hello
shay
hi bob good to be with you today good to
see you again thanks for being with me
so our topic indeed is the state of the
vehicle supply chain right now and and
how do you think the supply chain is
faring at the moment with regard to
things like supplies of parts and for
that matter finished automobiles as well
uh well it's probably no surprise for me
to say that we're still in a very uh
challenging environment uh we've seen
even in the last uh 24 hours that uh
additional uh automakers such as ford uh
have uh have further uh announced idling
of facilities and uh and shortages of
supplies particularly chips so we are
still in the still in the thick of
things no relief in sight at least in
the short term uh where are the
shortages most acute is it a nationwide
problem or any particular area uh that
is more serious
still very much uh very much a national
problem it does vary by uh by automaker
and a lot of that just depends upon
their own relationships with suppliers
and their ability to find uh to find
supply and prioritize themselves you
know so much of this
goes back uh to the uh to the very
beginning of the pandemic when
automakers
decided that they
were going to drastically cut forecast
and they essentially just stepped out of
line
for chip supplies and then chip makers
have reallocated those supplies toward
burgeoning demand for other products
which consequently is often more
profitable than uh than the automotive
industry and thus we still find
ourselves in the pickle we're in yeah
and i'm hearing that even those that had
more foresight toyota is often cited as
being one that made a lot of forward
purchasing of chips and as a result at
least at the beginning of this problem
was less affected but now it's beginning
to catch up with them as well is it not
sure i mean you can only lock in so much
uh so much supply so much buffer
inventory and here we are you know a
couple of years into this and um and
even those to your points such as toyota
are beginning to beginning to see these
issues that really are going to require
some some fundamental um
rethinks in order for us to in order for
us to to leave these issues whether it's
a you know combination of redesign uh by
by automotive manufacturers or uh or new
capacity uh from uh from chipmakers so
no no quick easy solutions yeah but i
mean chips aren't the whole problem are
they i mean just like every other
industry that imports any amount of
parts whatsoever the auto industry is
equally affected by congestion and
supply chain especially at ports and
trucks and driver shortages so that's
got to be an issue as well
absolutely absolutely you know the the i
think we've all been reminded how
delicate of an ecosystem we live in uh
whether we're in the automotive industry
whether we're in another industry and
and you know many of our supply chain
processes uh had benefited from
relatively stable predictable demand
and
and what we often assumed would be
really unlimited or infinite supply
and and of course those conditions have
both changed now and and we've been uh
out of equilibrium now for quite some
time and and to your point it's specific
shortages like chips but uh congestion
which
you know is easing to some degree but i
don't know if it really matters whether
they're 94 ships or 77 ships still off
the coast of la long beach there's still
um still a tremendous amount of
congestion yeah i would imagine this has
had a severe impact on the price that
both new cars and used cars is that in
fact the case
absolutely uh we're seeing new car
prices up uh over 10 percent uh used car
prices depending on what you look at up
about 40
from a year ago
um and and so just uh just tremendous uh
upward price pressures and and shortages
you know a lot of it is uh you know you
you uh really can't find what what you
want as a consumer a lot of times now
and there again that's different than
the world that we've become accustomed
to where you know i just go online and i
find exactly what i want and there are
three people willing to sell it to me
and i begin to negotiate on price not so
much certainly there's no customization
involved i want this in my car i want
that you just if it's on the lot or
available you either buy it or walk away
but yeah it's not and we look at it we
also look at at automakers that are from
a from a consumer point of view going
backwards from a feature standpoint you
know we're seeing uh it was quite uh
publicized quite a bit a couple of
months ago bmw even in luxury models is
backing off touch screens in some of
their vehicles uh some of the some of
the us manufacturers pulling away from
things such as heated seats that had
really become standard in many of the in
many of models and and so there again
not a not a uh
not the normalcy that we're used to the
feature aspect is some of that a
function just of that they can't get the
parts to make them or there are some
safety concerns that have arisen too
with drivers being distracted by using
these incredibly complex on-board
systems
great question i mean i think the the
short-term right now most of the
shortages are driven by um
by driven by part shortages
those features being removed although
granted there is the the overarching
discussion around you know are our
vehicles becoming too complex uh to to
to integrated to distracting to drivers
uh but uh but you know things such as
heated seats those are uh a uh a luxury
that that we've become familiar with and
uh
and and i think uh consumers uh are are
showing that they're willing to to pay
more for less though
yeah well we've said that there has been
no relief yet what do you see in the
next year any chance of that or i mean
it seems like a ship shortage is a
long-term problem is there any hope for
relief for relief for this industry in
say the next year
well first and foremost there's so many
factors at work no one can really say
with with assurance i think right now
we're still seeing uh and hearing from
automotive producers that they expect
some relief by the end of this year
however it's interesting that the
chipmakers themselves are saying not so
fast
so as i look into the situation and read
i think we've got at least another 12
months
of of these types of issues that we're
in for if not longer because to your
point some of these changes are really
going to need to be foundational whether
it's new supply and if so where do we
build those facilities where does the
capital come from or a re-engineering of
the of the cars um
uh design where the engineers had gotten
used to sticking lots of cheap abundant
chips everywhere
certainly one can redesign the vehicle
to have higher quality fewer chips that
run systems but that requires uh the
redesign and recertification process and
then you know all of those safety and
reliability concerns that you mentioned
interesting point you come back
interesting point you bring up does this
then signal the possibility of permanent
changes in automotive supply chains with
regard to as you say the types of parts
that go into it and where the cars are
made and where the parts are made are we
looking that down the line at that
i think that's certainly on the table
and and right now uh you know automotive
uh automotive industry leaders are
trying to figure that out and i think
they're pursuing you know multiple uh
multiple resolutions right i mean
they're certainly looking for and i
think getting some movement from chip
makers to onshore and increase supplies
they're they're surely looking at at
design changes that that can uh that can
potentially address some of this and as
i said no one really knows exactly how
we're going to come out of this but it's
probably not going to be anytime soon
i guess those of us who still have
automobiles maybe we ought to hang on to
them for a few more years and not worry
about having to acquire more
shea scott university of tennessee great
speaking with you thanks for the update
on what's going on in the vehicle supply
chain really appreciate it
great to be here
you
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