State of the Automotive Industry Now and Tomorrow

Summary

在这段访谈中，专家们讨论了新冠疫情对美国汽车工业及其对整体经济影响的当前和未来状况。Tom Vaughn、Laura Baucus和Tim Moraz分别从企业融资、供应链管理和地区经济发展的角度，分享了对汽车行业短期挑战和长期复苏的见解。他们指出，尽管短期内面临困难，但汽车行业对长期增长持乐观态度，并正在重新评估供应链管理，考虑是否需要调整“及时生产”模式。此外，讨论还涉及了并购活动、资本获取以及汽车行业作为美国经济风向标的潜力。

Takeaways

• 🚗 汽车行业对未来的展望是乐观的，尽管短期内面临挑战，但长期预期是积极的。
• 📉 由于COVID-19的影响，预计未来六个月内新供应链订单的比率将下降，但预计在接下来的12到24个月内会有所增加。
• 🔄 汽车行业在疫情期间经历了暂时的关闭，但重启过程比预期的要顺利，84%的企业关闭后能够重新开放并保持运营。
• 🛠️ 汽车行业正在重新评估其供应链管理，特别是对于长供应链和及时生产模式（JIT）的风险和收益。
• 💼 从企业财务的角度来看，汽车行业相对准备好应对当前的风暴，拥有足够的现金储备，但新资金的成本可能会上升。
• 🔎 行业正在密切关注其供应链，以确保其健康和能够承受潜在的关闭。
• 🌐 国际供应链的影响正在被重新评估，考虑到额外成本和风险，汽车制造商可能会考虑缩短供应链。
• 🏭 尽管有讨论关于将生产重新转移回美国，但目前的重点仍然是重启现有的供应链。
• 💡 汽车行业可能会因疫情而永久性地改变，包括对供应链的评估，以及可能的购买习惯的变化。
• 📈 汽车行业的表现通常被视为美国经济的一个风向标，当前的积极展望可能预示着经济的复苏。
• 📊 从并购的角度来看，强大的公司可能会保持观望态度，而那些财务较弱的公司可能会寻求合作伙伴或出售。

Q & A

当前汽车行业面临的主要挑战是什么？

根据访谈内容，汽车行业目前面临的主要挑战包括短期内供应链订单的下降，以及由于COVID-19疫情导致的生产中断和重启的困难。

汽车行业对接下来六个月的供应链订单有何预期？

根据调查，45%的汽车行业受访者预计未来六个月供应链订单会有所下降。

汽车行业对长期前景的看法如何？

尽管短期内面临挑战，但71%的汽车行业受访者预计在24个月内订单率会有所增加，显示出对长期前景的乐观态度。

COVID-19疫情对汽车制造商的运营产生了哪些影响？

疫情导致84%的汽车行业受访者不得不暂时关闭运营，但重启后，只有20%的受访者表示他们不得不再次关闭。

汽车行业如何评估其供应链的健康状况？

汽车行业正在重新评估其供应链，特别是长供应链的风险和效益，以及是否需要调整现有的及时生产(JIT)模式。

西密歇根地区的汽车制造业在疫情中表现如何？

西密歇根地区的汽车制造业显示出强大的恢复能力，许多制造商看到了危机中的机会，尽管面临劳动力和供应链管理的挑战。

汽车行业是否考虑将生产从海外迁回美国？

目前，汽车行业的主要焦点是重新开放现有的供应链，而不是立即将生产从海外迁回美国。

汽车行业对资本和财务的准备情况如何？

与10年前的经济衰退相比，汽车行业在财务上更为准备充分，许多供应商在疫情初期就借入了信贷额度，以保持现金流动性。

汽车行业的并购活动在疫情期间有何变化？

强大的卖家目前持观望态度，而那些财务较弱的公司则在寻找合作伙伴或出售机会，私募股权基金和其他公司正在寻找价值投资的机会。

汽车行业如何看待其在美国经济中的作用？

汽车行业被视为美国经济的一个风向标，其对经济的乐观态度通常预示着对并购市场的乐观，以及对消费者信心和消费支出的重视。

疫情是否会永久改变汽车制造业？

疫情可能会导致汽车制造业对长供应链的重新评估，考虑是否将某些生产迁回北美，并更密切地审查供应商的可持续性。

Outlines

00:00

🚗 汽车行业现状与未来展望

在这段对话中，主持人与来自不同领域的专家讨论了汽车行业的现状和未来。讨论的焦点是新冠疫情对汽车行业的影响，以及行业对未来的预期。Tom Vaughn介绍了他们对汽车制造商和供应商进行的一项调查，结果显示45%的汽车行业受访者预计未来六个月新订单会下降，但对接下来12到24个月的预期则相对乐观，分别有46%和71%的受访者预计订单会增加。这表明尽管短期内行业面临挑战，但长期来看，行业对复苏持乐观态度。

05:01

🔄 汽车行业的供应链与重启挑战

Laura Baukus讨论了汽车行业在疫情期间的供应链问题和重启策略。84%的受访者表示他们的企业不得不暂时关闭。然而，一旦重启，大多数企业能够保持运营，只有20%的企业在重启后再次关闭。这反映了汽车行业在规划和沟通方面的努力，使得重启过程比预期的要顺利。此外，还讨论了汽车行业在不同地区的运营情况，以及如何面对劳动力和供应链管理的挑战。

10:03

🌐 国际供应链的依赖与调整

专家们探讨了汽车行业对国际供应链的依赖，以及在疫情背景下可能进行的调整。Laura提到，尽管全球供应链相互关联，但企业正在重新评估长供应链的风险和成本，特别是考虑到未来可能的疫情和相关的额外成本。讨论还涉及了是否有将生产从海外重新转移回美国的动向，但目前，重点仍然是恢复现有的供应链，并确保其顺畅运行。

15:03

💼 汽车行业的财务准备与投资展望

Tom Vaughn分享了汽车行业在财务准备方面的情况，以及他们对未来投资的看法。与十年前的大萧条相比，汽车行业在这次疫情中财务准备更为充分，这使得他们能够更好地应对当前的挑战。尽管新资金的成本可能会上升，但企业正在努力利用现有资金，并寻求通过股权融资来加强资产负债表。此外，讨论了汽车行业的并购活动，以及它们如何反映行业的健康状况和对未来的预期。

20:04

📊 汽车行业作为美国经济的风向标

在这段对话中，专家们讨论了汽车行业如何作为美国整体经济的一个指标。Tom指出，他们的调查发现，汽车行业的乐观情绪与美国经济的乐观情绪密切相关。当消费者信心和支出上升时，汽车行业的并购市场也会表现出乐观。尽管短期内对经济的看法分歧，但长期来看，汽车行业的受访者对未来24个月的经济持积极态度，这被视为经济复苏的一个积极信号。

🏭 汽车行业对美国经济的长期影响

最后，专家们讨论了汽车行业可能因疫情而发生的变化，以及这些变化对美国经济的长期影响。Laura认为，汽车行业可能会重新评估长供应链，并考虑将生产转移到北美。此外，行业也在考虑消费者购买习惯的变化，以及这些变化如何影响汽车需求。Tim强调了汽车行业对密歇根州经济的重要性，以及它对整个美国经济的影响。

Keywords

💡汽车行业

汽车行业是指涉及汽车设计、制造、销售和服务的一系列企业与活动的总称。在视频中，汽车行业被讨论为美国经济的一个重要指标，其当前和未来的健康状况对整个经济有深远的影响。例如，Tom Vaughn提到了汽车行业和供应商在COVID-19大流行期间的新订单情况，显示出行业短期内面临的挑战和长期内的乐观预期。

💡供应链

供应链是指产品从原材料采购到最终用户手中的整个流程，包括制造、运输、分销等环节。视频中多次提到供应链，特别是在讨论COVID-19对汽车行业的影响时，如Laura Bacchus所言，供应链的中断对整个行业产生了重大影响，同时也促使行业重新评估其供应链管理策略。

💡COVID-19大流行

COVID-19大流行是指由新型冠状病毒引起的全球性疫情。视频中讨论了这场大流行对汽车行业的影响，包括生产中断、供应链问题以及对未来市场预期的影响。例如，84%的受访者表示他们的公司因大流行而不得不暂时关闭。

💡经济复苏

经济复苏是指经济活动在经历衰退或危机后的恢复过程。视频中，讨论了汽车行业对美国经济复苏的预期，特别是在长期展望中，许多受访者对24个月后的经济持乐观态度，这表明汽车行业可能对整体经济复苏起到积极的推动作用。

💡并购

并购是指企业通过购买或合并其他企业来扩大规模或进入新市场的行为。Tom Vaughn提到了并购活动，指出在当前经济环境下，一些财务状况不佳的公司可能会寻求合作伙伴或出售，而财务状况良好的公司则可能利用这个机会进行战略性购买。

💡精益制造

精益制造是一种旨在减少浪费、提高效率的生产管理方法。它强调持续改进，消除生产过程中的不必要步骤。Laura Bacchus提到，尽管精益制造在汽车行业中非常成功，但当前的危机促使企业重新评估其供应链策略，以适应可能的未来风险。

💡区域经济

区域经济是指特定地理区域内的经济活动和经济关系。Tim Moraz在讨论中提到，尽管有观点认为制造业正在向南部或沿海地区转移，但中西部地区，特别是西密歇根州，仍然保持着强大的制造业基础，并且经济持续增长。

💡供应链管理

供应链管理是指对供应链中的物流、信息流和资金流进行有效协调和管理的过程。视频中，Laura Bacchus讨论了供应链管理在当前危机中的重要性，以及企业如何通过确保供应链的健康和稳定来应对挑战。

💡企业融资

企业融资是指企业为了维持运营和发展而筹集资金的活动。Tom Vaughn提到，在当前经济环境下，尽管利率较低，但企业融资面临挑战，许多企业正在寻求通过股权融资来加强资产负债表。

💡消费者信心

消费者信心是指消费者对经济状况和个人财务前景的乐观程度。Tom Vaughn在视频中提到，消费者信心和消费支出是经济的领先指标，汽车行业的调查显示，消费者对经济的积极看法是未来经济复苏的一个好兆头。

Highlights

汽车行业及其对美国整体经济的影响是本次讨论的主题。

Tom Vaughn介绍了汽车制造商和供应商对美国经济和汽车行业的展望。

Laura Baucous讨论了汽车行业团队和供应链团队的领导地位。

调查显示，45%的汽车行业受访者预计未来六个月新供应链订单将下降。

然而，46%的汽车行业受访者预计未来12个月新订单将增加。

71%的汽车行业受访者预计未来24个月将看到订单增加。

汽车行业短期内面临挑战，但长期展望乐观。

Laura Baucous指出，尽管84%的受访者曾暂停运营，但只有20%在重启后再次暂停。

Tim Moraz强调了西密歇根州汽车制造业的强劲复苏。

讨论了汽车行业供应链管理的挑战和机遇。

Tom Vaughn提到，强大的公司在当前危机中选择不出售。

财务较弱的公司正在寻找合作伙伴或出售机会。

Tim Moraz反驳了“锈带”说法，强调西密歇根州制造业的持续增长。

Laura Baucous讨论了国际供应链的复杂性和重新评估的必要性。

Tom Vaughn认为，汽车行业的财务状况比十年前的经济衰退时要好。

讨论了企业融资问题，包括债务和股权。

Tom Vaughn认为，汽车行业的展望对美国经济是一个积极的指标。

Laura Baucous预测，汽车行业可能会因疫情而发生长期变化。

Tim Moraz强调了汽车行业对密歇根州经济的重要性。

Transcripts

[Music]

the current and future health of the

automotive industry and its implications

for the us economy at large

is the topic of my conversation today

let me introduce our panelists who will

be speaking today

we'll be hearing from tom vaughn he is a

member of the corporate finance group

and co-leader of the m

a practice group with dykema tom welcome

great thank you robert glad to be here

and

laura baucus she is a member of the

automotive industry team and a leader in

the supply chain group of diecoma

hello laura hi robert thanks for having

me

and tim moraz he is vice president of

the right place

hi tim hi thanks for the invite to be

part of this today

so that's our panel for today let me

start by directing a question to tom

and that is a general question that

speaks to the key

findings of a survey that you folks did

you were analyzing

automaker and supplier perspectives on

the u.s economy

and the auto industry in the midst of

the covet 19 pandemic

what are some of the key findings of

that survey that relate to the current

and future health of the automotive

industry

okay yeah that's that's great and just a

little bit by way of background

um we also did an m a survey at above

the same time

as we did the auto survey and so we're

going to do some comparisons to that

survey during the discussion today great

and then we also took our survey the

auto survey

and we broke our respondents into two

groups we have all respondents

and then we also took the respondents

from companies

that are really involved in the auto

industry manufacturers suppliers

um those type of companies and have auto

only

responses as opposed to responses from

people like me who are professionals who

practice

in the industry so sometimes you're

going to hear us talk about the auto

respondents and what their views were

with respect to it because they differed

in some of the areas from the views of

all of the respondents so great so

there's a number of ways to slice and

dice it then for sure

so there's a number of ways to slice and

dice and it always makes the information

uh very very interesting in this process

okay tom well let's sum up for me just

some of the high points of that survey

what did you learn from from this yeah

so one of the questions we asked our

respondents were

about the rate of new supply chain

orders in the automotive business

uh as impacted by covet 19. and so we

asked responders

what they saw in terms of the rate of

new orders in the next six months

um and that was uh pretty much with the

autoresponders

45 of the auto responders expected a

decline

by over the course of the next six

months uh whereas about 38

over all of our respondents felt like

there would be a decline now when again

were they being when were they being

surveyed

exactly uh so what what would be the

rate of new supply chain orders over the

next six months

starting at what point though i mean

when were they

at july 1st july 1st okay so essentially

the rest of this year

rest of this calendar okay go ahead i'm

sorry i just wanted to make sure we knew

what we're talking about about the next

six months but

so 45 of the auto responders expected a

decline

when we asked the question about the

next 12 months

that shifted with 46 of the auto

respondents

expecting an increase in the rate of new

orders you know compared to the prior

uh 12-month period and when we jumped

out looking out 24 months uh the auto

respondents

71 of them expected to see an increase

so what we took away from this in

looking at the survey results

was really a view that in the short term

the auto industry and the suppliers

need to get through the short term here

it's going to be a tough

next six to 12 months but if they can

get through to the other end

the expectation is uh you know the

industry is going to be back

and and chugging along yeah

all the industries materials we see

i think everybody expects the next

couple years to be slower growth than we

have seen in the past

but still hopefully some growth and i

think our respondents felt the same way

interesting that such a one of our

largest most vibrant industries has such

a sense of essentially a sense of

optimism

uh compared with what some people are

saying thinking that some economists

saying it may take five years for our

economy to recover and here's a

automotive industry telling us that they

may at least start that a lot earlier

however

there are shorter term implications and

a number of these automakers have

suspended operations have they not laura

initially and and what what's going on

there and with regard to reopening

remember back in march the auto industry

abruptly had to shut down you know this

is something

never seen before in the industry those

of us who work with the industry from

the legal perspective which i do on the

supply chain

understand and appreciate that the

shutting down of any supplier from you

know a tier three

all the way up to the oem is a big deal

so when everything shut down

it was a game changer but what happened

was that

you know it first of all you can see

from our results you know 84

almost everybody had to shut down it was

almost everyone in the industry but what

happened after that

is that the industry continued to work

together and have

you know a great amount of free flow

communication during the months you know

march

april may and they had to each state had

differing orders on who could be an

essential worker

who could be open and not be open then

of course this is a global supply chain

you've got

mexico which had its own orders and then

you've got a long supply chain for

reaching out to asia what that resulted

in is that the reopening

actually went much smoother than perhaps

people had anticipated

and that's really to the testament of

the planning in the auto industry

um so while 84 of our respondents auto

respondents said they had to shut down

in the pandemic

only 20 responded that after they

reopened they had to shut down again

and that's an impressive number so once

they opened they stayed open

basically are good for the most part

there are some widely publicized

incidents where there may have been

you know a case of so if someone tested

positive they shut down for cleaning but

for the most part

it has gone quite smoothly you make a

good point laura that we should probably

not be thinking of this

automotive industry that we're calling

as a monolithic thing where everybody is

in lockstep and doing exactly the same

thing regardless of where they are

tim i'm wondering uh there in west

michigan uh that you specialize in you

promote west michigan

um how has that reflected specifically

in your area what were you seeing in

terms of auto manufacturing there

you know one of the one of the things

that we're really proud of here in west

michigan i would even say in the state

is

the latest numbers we've been seeing

coming out from the state of michigan is

that

the state as a whole in terms of the

automotive industry it has been has been

able to come back pretty strong

um you know the the the automotive

manufacturers that we're meeting with

here in the region

you know i think i think many of them

are seeing opportunity in the chaos

um but really the two big hurdles

for our employers coming out of this are

one are dealing with

with workforce issues um and two dealing

with with continued supply chain

management issues um

you know i think this is you know to

lowest point i think a lot of this

the the shutdown and the global supply

chain has really redefined

the word redundancy when it comes to

supply chain management um

and a lot of our companies having to

deal with that you know just because

my my supply chain manufacturers open in

west michigan

doesn't mean that my supplier in arizona

is open and

to be able to get parts for production

um on the other side of that you know

with workforce issues

um you know we we had workforce issues

going into this you know

you know into the covid crisis um coming

out of it it's going to make it you know

just that much harder

very interesting point you make about

supply there of course you know the

automotive industry was one of the

pioneers of the

just in time supply model where you keep

very little inventory you rush stuff to

the production

line the moment you need it you don't

have a lot of extra stuff sitting around

now

a lot of companies are saying we need

some buffer stock we need to

if not scrap the jit concept at least

revise it

laura that's a supply chain story right

there are you seeing some modification

of the just-in-time

theory of production well at this point

we're not seeing

a wholesale modification of the

just-in-time it's worked

remarkably well in lean manufacturing

for decades but what we are seeing is

some re-evaluation

of long supply chains meaning your

suppliers in china

and with possible pandemics in the

future

with differing times where companies

might shut down and

an ability to get stock and parts are

timely

just a reevaluation of risk and benefit

is the money that you might potentially

save

worth the risk and not being able to get

the parts

in time uh yeah

tom i'd like to talk to you for a moment

about the m a thing i i know

maybe we're going to save that for the

end but i'm also wondering in terms of

short term

is it too early to already start to see

patterns of mergers and acquisitions are

are companies moving that quickly in

response to the situation or are they

kind of holding their fire and thinking

of m

a as more of a long-term strategy in

response to what's going on

so i've answered that question in two

ways first off from a seller's

perspective i think we're seeing a

little bit of dichotomy here

any seller who believes that they've got

a strong company

and that they can make it through the

current covid crisis

is sitting on the sidelines they're not

going to put the company out there

because valuations are down i mean all

of the statistics and

our respondents show that valuations are

down

by at least 20 and that's very

consistent with statistics i'm seeing

so strong sellers are staying on the

sidelines but

we are also seeing m a activity and

including the auto industry of people

that were not as financially strong

people

that have some financial weakness are

going out and looking for partners

or are looking for an opportunity uh to

store up their financial

you know where with all um that

perspective

i think there are some good buying

opportunities out there and we're seeing

you know pe funds and other companies

get into the market

uh looking for opportunities to pick up

on good values you know at this uh at

this point in time

yeah tim i want to get back to you just

for a moment about the regional aspect

of it uh

because i'm sure you hate this phrase

that you've had to bear for decades the

rust belt referring to the industrial

northeast and supposedly everything has

moved to the south

south east southwest i'm sure you would

counter that argument as a promoter of

west michigan but do you in fact see

different patterns shifting patterns

within the united states and i'll talk

about international moment

but in terms of where cars and trucks

are being produced right now

in the u.s do we see shifting patterns

regionally

you know i can only speak like you said

for west michigan and you know one of

the things that you know i'm proud to

say is

in terms of our projects you know

through the right place we we have

continued to set five record years

of economic growth here much of it much

of which

has been in the manufacturing sector so

for you know for all those

folks that you know one to your point

have said you know the

the midwest is dead you know

manufacturing is dead

you know we need to move to the coast

and we need to move south

um we have we have countless projects

that prove otherwise

so the economy in west michigan

continues to remain strong

um you know one of the great things we

have going for us in west michigan is we

are a diverse economy so many of our

automotive suppliers

also are suppliers to other industries

as well um so you have that

diversification mix that you don't have

in other communities

laura could you talk about some of the

international supply chain

implications i know that a lot of tier

one

suppliers and the like surround the oems

within this country but i'm wondering to

what extent have

u.s automakers or automakers making

autos in the u.s to what extent have

they had to depend

on long supply lines for parts to what

extent had they had to depend on china

and other and other countries like that

and is that changing now

with the realization that there's so

much more risk attending that type of a

strategy

so of course data chain is interrelated

globally

every single oem every single tier one

has long supply chains

whether you know mexico which would be

the shortest all the way to asia

throughout europe

and that's being reevaluated to the

extent that you there are additional

costs that weren't there before

that you're having the cost for your

facility with the additional ppe

but now if uh some there's a

small pandemic in another foreign

country

that might shut down then when it

finally reopens you're going to have

expedited freight and other costs

that you just didn't have before so

that's why it's being relooked at

and to the same extent in the

international and the u.s supply chain

you know we see the oems and the tier

ones looking very much

after supply chains to make sure they're

healthy you know the visibility's always

been there but they're dramatically

at this point uh making sure they're on

top of

everything because anyone in the supply

chain goes down it's going you know it's

going to impact the smooth reopening

that we've had

are we seeing any kind of a move to

reshoring of anything that was produced

overseas that is now coming back to the

united states and being manufactured

here

or do those are those patterns pretty

much the same as far as you can see for

now

from what i can see and again it's the

legal perspective so we might get it at

the back end

uh it's much too soon at this point the

focus is

reopening the supply chains that exist

and with the automotive industry

you know every single part down to the

smallest widget has to go through

extensive

testing um particularly safety parts and

that's where the focus is reopening the

supply chain and now that's opening

making sure that it's running smoothly

yeah

yeah and and i just support laura on

that one i think

every supplier in oem is you know

constantly evaluating and reevaluating

their supply chain and they certainly

are doing that right now but the way

that the auto industry works

nothing can be done that quickly um so

the changes

if they're going to come are going to

come in the future not here in the short

term would be my perspective

yeah tom i want to speak to your

expertise in corporate finance too

because there has been a lot of concern

even before the pandemic about

access to capital and finance problems

and well

we had low interest rates which is great

but everything else has been difficult

in terms of worry about corporate debt

and the like

how is the automotive industry

approaching the corporate finance

question right now are they a little bit

nervous about what's going on and do

they have the funds in the working

capital to move forward with

the types of investments they need to

make

yeah a couple different things the one

thing is that the auto industry was in a

completely different

mode today than they were back in the

big recession

from 10 years ago there they were not

financially prepared for a downturn

they were this time they were expecting

a downturn to some extent

not quite as extensive as we had but

they were prepared for it so most auto

suppliers

and the oems financially were well

prepared for this

and well prepared to weather the current

storm

and and i think we've seen that with

their uh you know

limited layoffs and ability to really

maintain operations and activities

and of course a lot of suppliers

borrowed down on their lines of credit

uh you know just in at the start of the

pandemic

so most people are sitting there with

pretty good cash um

i don't think anybody is out right i

shouldn't say out not looking for new

money but i think everybody knows

new money coming today is going to be

expensive so trying to live off of what

they have

is where they're at but we also know

there's lots of activity

out there lots of pipes being done where

people are bringing in

um some equity to shore up the balance

sheet uh you know a little bit at this

point in time

i think lenders are still being pretty

cautious so probably the the debt

market's a little bit tougher

um than it has been uh with the equity

market maybe a little bit

uh more of a safety net for people okay

so let's broaden this discussion to talk

about what had the extent to which what

you've learned what we've all learned

about the automotive industry is a

bellwether

for the u.s economy as a whole let me

just go to you first tom and say

based on your research is this in fact a

good indication of how the larger

economy

is doing in terms of optimism pessimism

future

investments and the like should we take

that as an example

yeah it's a very interesting we've done

the m a survey for 16 years

and the one thing that we have found is

uh m a and the u.s economy

move very much hand in hand so optimism

on the economy

turns out to be optimism for the m a

market

and we have also found we did a survey

last year uh found that one of the

that our survey respondents believe that

probably the leading economic indicator

is consumer confidence and consumer

spending so when we see positive outlook

in our surveys

uh from our respondents we think that's

a good sign for the the future

and so we did ask our respondents about

the next 12 months

will the economy have a positive neutral

or negative compared

to where we're at today and it was about

evenly split over the next 12 months

uh interestingly though when we went out

to 24 months

um that changed pretty dramatically with

46 percent

of the auto respondents having a

positive outlook

and 76 of the m a respondents

having a positive outlook which was

really pretty bullish 24 months out

so i would say that the outlook released

from our survey

on a longer term basis is is a very

positive outlook and a

positive for the recovery great and and

laura let me just ask you if the extent

to which you think the auto

manufacturing industry might be

transformed

permanently as a result of the pandemic

as opposed to just

actions that are taken right now in

order to survive with this current

situation

i think you touched on some of the

things earlier in your questions

you know there there will be an

evaluation of long supply chains

whether it makes sense to bring things

onshore at least back into north america

to some extent

there's going to be you know looking

very closely at

suppliers to ensure that they are

viable and can be viable and can

withstand a shutdown for three months

which is not something that had to be

looked at before

another question in our minds and this

is for the future is

will buying habits change and how will

they change

to the extent people are working

remotely maybe families will only need

one car

um or two instead of several you know

these are some of the questions we don't

know but

people are certainly looking at them and

tim let me just get a quick comment from

you to uh

to wrap up optimism in the in the upper

midwest west michigan

the uh heart of the traditional

automotive industry in america i mean do

you

get a feeling that they feel the same

way as you know tom and

laura talking about yeah you know i

think one of the things that we taught

you know the three of us talked about

you know previously was that the idea

that you know as goes the auto industry

so goes michigan

um you know i i think folks don't

realize the amount

of industry that is attached even

indirectly to the automotive industry

you know us in economic development

you know we look at things like job

multipliers and

you know the job multi the job

multiplier in the automotive industry is

you know four

to six sometimes even you know 8x and so

you know

even though you're you may be thinking

about automotive direct

jobs um you know you need to talk about

you know other industries that are

supportive of of the auto industry and

how much

of our overall economy is supported by

the auto industry

um and so seeing these numbers come back

that we saw in the survey that there is

a long-term optimism you know i think is

reassuring

some really interesting insights into

the state of the automotive industry and

its implications for the us economy at

large

tom vaughn of dykema laura bacchus of

daikoma

tim moraz of the right place thanks to

all of you for participating today i

really appreciate your time thanks a lot

thank you thanks for having us thanks

robert enjoyed it