The Impact of the American Megadrought on Food Supply Chains

Summary

在这段视频中，俄亥俄州立大学风险研究所的执行董事菲尔·雷诺讨论了美国西部特大干旱对食品供应链的影响。他指出，人们在面对危机时往往会有恐慌性购买行为，如COVID-19初期抢购卫生纸和洗手液，以及北卡罗来纳州因殖民管道问题而出现的紧急状态导致的抢购汽油现象。干旱导致了草莓、杏仁等作物产量的减少，引发了对食品供应短缺的担忧。雷诺强调，食品供应链需要适应这种极端天气事件的增加频率和严重性，可能需要从欧洲、拉丁美洲、加拿大等地寻找替代供应链。此外，他还提到了气候变化对全球食品生产的影响，以及减少化石燃料使用对缓解这些问题的重要性。

Takeaways

• 📈 美国西部的严重干旱对食品供应链产生了直接影响，可能导致消费者恐慌性购买行为。
• 🛒 消费者在面对紧急情况，如COVID-19大流行或科洛尼尔管道事件时，表现出了恐慌性购买行为。
• 🌱 干旱影响了西海岸的农作物，如草莓和杏仁，这可能导致供应链从美国西海岸转移到欧洲、拉丁美洲、加拿大或其他地区。
• 🍓 食品与一般商品不同，它不能长时间储存，这增加了供应链管理的复杂性。
• 📊 干旱导致的食品短缺可能迫使人们改变购买习惯，比如购买更多食品以备不时之需。
• 🚛 供应链依赖于特定地区的食品供应，这可能因干旱而受到挑战。
• 🌎 气候变化导致的极端天气事件，如风暴和洪水，对食品供应链产生了更广泛的影响。
• 🍽️ 随着经济的开放和餐馆业务的恢复，对食品的需求可能会增加，从而给供应链带来额外压力。
• 🔄 食品供应链通常能够从多个来源获取产品，但当主要供应源受影响时，可能需要依赖次级供应商。
• 💧 干旱导致的水资源短缺，如拉斯维加斯附近的米德湖水位下降，可能对农作物生长造成影响。
• 🌿 虽然美国其他地区有大量农业，但它们可能没有准备好突然为西部地区提供服务，因为它们需要满足自己区域的客户。
• 🌍 作为全球社会，我们需要理解化石燃料对气候变化的影响，并采取行动减少这种影响。
• 🛠️ 企业需要在供应链中加入风险管理，以应对这些不断变化的天气模式和潜在的供应链中断。

Q & A

美国西部的严重干旱对食品供应链有何直接影响？

美国西部的严重干旱直接影响了农作物的生长，尤其是草莓和杏仁等作物，这可能导致这些作物的供应短缺，进而影响食品供应链的稳定性和消费者的购买行为。

在COVID-19疫情期间，消费者的购买行为有哪些变化？

在COVID-19疫情初期，人们出现了恐慌性购买行为，如抢购卫生纸、洗手液等商品。这种恐慌性购买行为在后来逐渐减少，因为人们意识到食品供应是稳定的。

为什么说当前的干旱情况与历史上的干旱有所不同？

当前的干旱情况与历史上的干旱不同，因为它发生在全球气候变化的大背景下，伴随着极端天气事件的增加，如风暴、洪水等，这些都需要在食品供应链管理中予以考虑。

食品供应链如何应对极端天气事件的挑战？

食品供应链可以通过多源采购来应对极端天气事件的挑战，例如在非产季从智利、南美和墨西哥等地进口浆果，在产季则从美国西海岸获取。

干旱对农作物生长的具体影响是什么？

干旱会导致农作物缺水，影响其正常生长，可能会减少农作物的产量和质量，从而影响食品的供应。

为什么说食品供应链的“及时”(just-in-time)模式面临挑战？

“及时”模式在依赖特定地区食品供应的情况下面临挑战，因为如果主要供应地区出现问题，如干旱，那么需要迅速切换到其他供应源，这可能会考验二级或三级供应商的供应能力。

如何减少化石燃料对食品供应链的影响？

作为全球社会，我们需要理解化石燃料对气候变化的影响，并采取行动减少其影响，比如通过减少车辆使用、提高能源效率等措施。

为什么说食品供应链管理需要考虑风险管理？

食品供应链管理需要考虑风险管理，因为极端天气事件和其他不可预测的因素都可能对供应链造成影响，通过风险管理可以提高供应链的韧性和适应性。

如何提高食品供应链对极端天气事件的适应性？

提高食品供应链的适应性可以通过多元化供应源、建立缓冲库存、采用可持续的农业实践以及加强供应链的灵活性和响应能力来实现。

为什么说当前的干旱情况可能导致新的恐慌性购买行为？

由于公众对干旱情况的认识增加，担心食品短缺，可能会引发新的恐慌性购买行为，尤其是在食品供应受限或预期会受限的情况下。

经济重新开放和餐饮业恢复对食品供应链有何影响？

经济重新开放和餐饮业的恢复可能会导致食品需求的增加，因为人们开始外出就餐，这可能会给食品供应链带来额外的压力。

Outlines

00:00

🌍 美国西部严重干旱对食品供应链的影响

本段讨论了美国西部严重干旱对食品供应链的直接影响。Phil Renault，俄亥俄州立大学风险研究所的执行董事，分享了他对当前情况的观察，包括消费者购买行为的变化，以及干旱对作物，特别是西海岸作物如草莓和杏仁的影响。讨论还涉及了人们在新冠疫情期间的恐慌性购买行为，以及这种购买模式如何在面对干旱时再次出现。此外，还探讨了食品浪费问题和供应链的即时性问题，以及依赖特定地区食品供应的挑战。

05:00

🛒 消费者恐慌购买行为及其对食品供应链的影响

这段内容深入探讨了消费者在面对危机时的恐慌购买行为，如COVID-19大流行初期的卫生纸抢购潮，以及北卡罗来纳州因殖民管道问题宣布紧急状态后人们抢购燃油的情况。讨论了这种心理行为背后的动因，并提出了经济重新开放和餐饮业复苏可能对食品供应链产生的压力，尤其是当人们渴望外出社交时对食品的额外需求。此外，还提到了食品供应链的灵活性，如何根据季节变化从不同地区获取产品，以及当前干旱情况下可能需要重新考虑的供应链策略。

10:02

🌱 极端天气事件对农业和食品供应的挑战

在这一段中，讨论了极端天气事件，如干旱和洪水，对农业产出和食品供应的影响。提到了密歇根湖的水位下降对作物所需水资源的影响，以及西部地区前所未有的高温对作物生长的威胁。此外，还讨论了气候变化导致的风暴频率和强度增加，以及这些极端天气事件对食品供应链的挑战。最后，提出了作为全球社会需要理解化石燃料对气候变化的影响，并采取行动减少其影响，同时强调了风险管理在供应链中的重要性。

Keywords

💡干旱

干旱是指长时间没有降雨或者降雨量远低于正常水平，导致水资源短缺的现象。在视频中，美国西部的干旱对食品供应链产生了直接影响，因为干旱会导致农作物产量下降，从而影响食品供应。

💡食品供应链

食品供应链是指食品从生产、加工、运输、销售到最终消费者手中的整个流程。视频中提到，由于干旱，食品供应链可能需要从其他地区如欧洲、拉丁美洲、加拿大等地重新调整，以应对西部地区的干旱问题。

💡恐慌性购买

恐慌性购买是指在某种紧急情况或预期短缺的情况下，消费者出于对未来供应不足的担忧而大量购买商品的行为。视频中提到，由于干旱和COVID-19大流行期间的恐慌性购买行为，可能会导致食品供应链的压力增大。

💡气候变化

气候变化是指由于自然原因或人类活动导致的全球或局部气候状态的长期变化。视频中提到，气候变化导致的极端天气事件增加，如干旱和洪水，对食品供应链构成了挑战。

💡风险管理

风险管理是指识别、评估和控制可能对组织目标产生负面影响的风险的过程。视频中提到，食品供应链需要进行风险管理，以应对气候变化带来的不确定性和潜在影响。

💡依赖性

依赖性在这里指的是食品供应链对特定地区供应的依赖。视频中提到，对美国西部特定地区食品供应的依赖可能会因干旱而受到挑战，需要考虑从其他地区获取供应。

💡即时供应链

即时供应链是一种管理方法，旨在减少库存，通过及时生产和交付来提高效率。视频中提到，食品供应链已经很好地实现了即时供应链管理，但这种模式可能因干旱等突发事件而受到挑战。

💡殖民管道

殖民管道是指美国东部的一个重要输油管道系统。视频中提到，由于殖民管道的问题，北卡罗来纳州宣布进入紧急状态，这导致了恐慌性购买汽油的行为，与食品供应链面临的挑战有相似之处。

💡经济复苏

经济复苏是指经历经济衰退后，经济活动逐渐恢复和增长的阶段。视频中提到，随着经济的开放和餐厅业务的恢复，可能会对食品供应链产生更大的需求压力。

💡极端天气事件

极端天气事件是指不常见的、可能对人类社会和自然环境造成严重影响的天气现象，如严重干旱、洪水、飓风等。视频中提到，极端天气事件的频率和强度增加，对食品供应链构成了新的挑战。

💡全球社会

全球社会指的是全球范围内的人类社会，包括不同国家、文化和社会系统的总和。视频中提到，作为全球社会的一部分，我们需要理解化石燃料对气候变化的影响，并采取措施减少这种影响，以保护食品供应链。

Highlights

美国西部的严重干旱对食品供应链产生了直接影响，可能引发恐慌性购买行为。

COVID-19大流行期间，人们曾出现恐慌性购买卫生纸和洗手液等商品的行为。

北卡罗来纳州由于Colonial Pipeline事件宣布紧急状态，导致人们恐慌性地在加油站购买燃油。

干旱导致的作物产量下降，可能迫使供应链从欧洲、拉丁美洲、加拿大等地寻找替代来源。

食品与一般商品不同，不能长期储存，这增加了供应链管理的复杂性。

食品供应链已经习惯了根据季节从多个来源调配产品。

干旱导致的供应问题可能因为依赖特定地区的食品供应而加剧。

公众对干旱的认识可能会引发食品方面的新一轮恐慌性购买。

随着经济的开放和餐厅业务的恢复，可能会对食品供应链产生额外压力。

食品供应链需要能够灵活地从次要供应商网络中调配资源以满足需求。

美国西部湖泊水位的下降可能会影响作物的灌溉，加剧供应问题。

过去美国西部的一系列干旱事件可能为当前情况提供了一些应对经验。

气候变化导致的极端天气事件频发，对食品供应链构成挑战。

全球社会需要认识到化石燃料对气候变化的影响，并采取行动减少其影响。

COVID-19期间的地缘空间映射显示，减少化石燃料使用能迅速改善环境。

企业需要将风险管理纳入供应链，以应对不断变化的天气模式带来的挑战。

俄亥俄州立大学的风险研究所等组织致力于帮助解决这些实际问题。

Transcripts

[Music]

the impact of the mega drought in the

western u.s

on food supply chains topic of my

discussion today with phil renault he is

executive director of the risk institute

at the ohio state university hi phil

hi bob thanks for uh thanks for sharing

your uh your podcast with me today

and thanks for joining me as if the

pandemic weren't enough as if economic

recession weren't enough we have a

drought in the western united states

which seems extremely

persistent and of course it's going to

have a direct impact on food supply

chains but i'd like to hear from you

what are some of the observations that

you've seen with regard to food supply

availability consumer buying behavior

what are the big takeaway points that

you're seeing right now as a result of

this

uh particular event yeah i think bob

it's

it's a very very interesting

conversation because if we look back at

buying behaviors during covid

we think about the early onset of coven

how did people react they ran to the

supermarkets to buy

toilet paper and and uh other

commodities hand sanitizer etc etc

uh to gear up if we think about just a

couple of weeks ago with the behavior

um and i was talking to with a friend of

mine in north carolina earlier today

the colonial pipeline north carolina

created a

state of emergency what was the

immediate behavior

the immediate behavior was run to the

filling stations

and fill up your car he was talking

about

people running in with trash bags and

filling up trash bags with fuel etc etc

so it's this panic buying behavior that

seems to have

kind of emerged during covid so

our thinking now is with the drought and

that's serious because we've

experienced the worst

temperature change since the 1880s

if you think about that that's massive

and what's the impact on crops so

we've got strawberries and we've got

almonds and we've got all sorts of

different crops that are

that are originated in in the west coast

of uh

of the us does now that suddenly mean

that i need to change

my supply chain for those crops to

europe

or latin america or canada or other

areas that

may not be experiencing those severe

droughts

so not only do we have this panic

buying scenario that people are saying

well strawberries are going to be

a short supply so therefore i'm going to

buy as many as i can

the challenge with food though is it

wastes yeah

you can't keep them around that long i

can't keep it in my garage and you know

for the

time space that i need it or hand

sanitizer

food's going to weigh so i need to kind

of gear up and

and make sure that i've got a supply for

that week's family needs

so it creates a whole different kind of

set of dynamics

that we in society today are very used

to

just in time right and we've done a very

very good job of that

in the supply chain to create this

just-in-time

process as things like

dependency on food supplies from certain

areas of the country

that will always challenge us or will

continue to challenge us going forward

now this is interesting because

certainly we saw panic buying in the

early

weeks and months of the pandemic but

that sort of tapered off a little bit as

people realized that grocery stores were

not going to close

that the food was going to be there and

we got back to what might be considered

somewhat normal levels of grocery buying

more than usual because so many people

were at home maybe i don't know

but you're saying now that there's

enough of a public awareness

of this drought that that might spark a

new round

of panic buying on the food side i mean

it could

i mean i there's no guarantees there but

you look at the you look at the behavior

of people um you know this this colonial

pipeline for example while it's not food

it demonstrates the panic buying that

exists today

so people's tendencies and behaviors

seem to be changing based upon the news

cycles that are out there so

suddenly we realize that it was not a

supply problem

in colonial right it was not a supply

problem yeah

it was in effect a supply chain problem

why

because driver shortages couldn't get

enough drivers in the seats to get the

product to the filling stations

so if we create our own sense of

emergency our own sense of panic here

by governors in the case of north

carolina's

creating a state or a state of emergency

so the reaction of the buying public is

oh

there's got to be something much worse

than what i'm seeing

therefore my reaction is panic buying

psychological for sure it's

psychological now

i'm also wondering if as the economy

opens up and specifically as restaurants

begin doing business again

will there be an even greater new need

for food i mean there's x amount of food

that

that people can purchase and maybe they

were buying more of it you know for

their homes before

but will that well that put more

pressure on the food supply chain as

restaurants start needing it too

likely it likely will result in that

because

you know we've had this sense of uh or

this reality

that the food we'd buy was for our own

consumption so we go to

whatever food uh location we're buying

from delivered to the home

not going out to restaurants we have

this sense of

and i saw it today in the last couple of

days where people are

are anxious they're anxious to get out

they're anxious to socialize they're

anxious to meet their friends and

relatives

in restaurants and other areas where

you know they gather so that's likely to

push the demand up for

products that are supplied primarily

from west coast destinations

another thing is though i think that a

lot of food supply chains are well

especially on the produce side are well

accustomed to drawing from multiple

sources

as needed like off season you can get

berries and things on the west coast

from chile and and south america and

mexico and then during the season you

get it from up here they shift all the

time

so i'm thinking in that area is it that

much of a challenge to shift sourcing

uh in response to it could be because if

suddenly

one of our primary sources

is not there and we have to then go back

to

i'll call it tier two tier three uh

suppliers and the demand for tier two

tier three now is tier one then what

does that mean

it means that we may not have the

capacity in that tier two

tier three supplier network to meet the

demands of the wider

needs right right and certainly

there's plenty of agriculture elsewhere

in the united states but that doesn't

mean that they are well positioned to

suddenly start serving the west

because they're serving their own

customers regionally well correct

correct

and you know with the uh i mean if you

look at uh

lake mead for example i think it's down

to

proportions that have never been seen

since the

the day was built um

you know those crops may not need get

the

necessary water supply they may not be

able to get it because of the

the uh the situation that lake need so

it just exacerbates the problem

yeah there is a unprecedented nature to

some of this you talked about

temperatures not seen since the 1880s

and the like but we've also had

uh here in the western united states

we've had a series of droughts that

come and go or seem to come and go are

there lessons we can draw on the

past in order to how to deal with this

current situation or are we in

completely new territory here now

i think you know i'd like to say there

are lessons we can draw from the past

but i think we're a new territory

if we look at not only and i want to

talk about the wider climate change here

rather than just

singular droughts if we look at the

impact

of increased frequency and severity of

storms

uh we look at floods in houston

uh we look at the number of name storms

that have impacted the gulf

in the uh the east coast of of the us

so we've got this this this kind of

growth in a pattern of extreme weather

events

that are causing other challenges so for

example

while my crops may be

challenged on the west coast because of

drought conditions

i may have situations in other parts

of the country let's say the midwest or

or

southeast where i've got an over

abundance of water and therefore my

fields are not as productive

as they have been because i've got an

oversupply of water

right so either way there's a challenge

in the balance that needs to occur

i'm not hearing much in the way of

solutions here and i'm not suggesting

that you

that you should have them uh but other

than shifting sourcing on a

on a need to basis um

what can we do to prepare for these for

these changing weather patterns if

anything

with regard to the food supply yeah i

mean i think

you know we we need as a as a society

a global society i'm not talking about

u.s society as a global society

understand the impacts of

fossil fuels other things that are

impacting

our our it was interesting because if

you look at

um some geospatial mapping

and you look at during the pandemic

during covid

on a global basis you look at some major

cities like la

and that chicago boston new york

where the disruption in those particular

areas

of number of vehicles on the road and

you see how

quickly things turned around in a more

positive basis

it was quite quite you know

energizing to me to look at that and say

we can turn this around

we've got to take some immediate actions

and we've got to think globally on how

we can reduce fossil fuel

kind of impact to uh to our society

you know it does tend to cleanse itself

and we saw that

just in the short period of time where

vehicles were off the road during

during coveted pandemic it cleansed

itself pretty quickly

and it also gives companies a new found

awareness of the importance of working

risk management into their supply chains

hence the existence of the risk

institute

and similar organizations uh so we're

we're happy to have you phil

uh helping helping us to figure these

things out uh

phil renault the ohio state university

great to talk to you

always great to talk to you thanks for

your insights into this

what appears to be in a practical

problem but maybe not not if we set

forward to you know to

devise some solutions right pretty

quickly but thanks very much for your

time i really appreciate it

thank you bob have a great day