The Possibilities of AI [Entire Talk] - Sam Altman (OpenAI)

Summary

在斯坦福大学举办的企业家思想领袖研讨会上，Sam Altman，OpenAI的联合创始人兼首席执行官，分享了他对于人工智能未来的深刻见解。Altman认为，我们正处于创业的最佳时期，AI的发展将带来前所未有的机遇。他强调了迭代部署的重要性，认为社会和技术的共同演化对于形成有益的产品至关重要。同时，他也提到了对于AI强大能力的负责任使用，以及对AI带来的潜在风险的担忧。Altman还讨论了OpenAI的组织结构和使命，以及他们如何适应不断变化的环境。最后，他以对AI未来进步的乐观态度结束了演讲，认为尽管存在挑战，但AI将为人类带来巨大的积极影响。

Takeaways

• 🎓 Sam Altman 是 OpenAI 的联合创始人和 CEO，该公司是聊天机器人 Dolly 和 Sora 背后的研究和部署公司。
• 🌟 Sam Altman 的生活是一个不断突破界限和超越可能性的模式，无论是对他自己还是对世界。
• 🚀 Sam 认为，鉴于世界的变化程度和影响力的机会，现在可能是几个世纪以来创业的最佳时机。
• 🤖 他预见到人工智能（AI）将每年变得更加卓越，并且最伟大和最具影响力的公司和产品将在这种时代诞生。
• 🧠 Sam 强调，对于想要创业的人来说，追随自己的直觉和非共识的想法是非常重要的。
• 💡 OpenAI 通过迭代部署其产品，让社会和技术共同演化，从而学习并变得更好。
• 🌐 Sam 讨论了 AI 对全球政治格局和权力平衡可能产生的影响，尽管这不是他主要关注的问题。
• 💰 关于 OpenAI 的经济模型，Sam 表示他不担心烧钱问题，只要最终为社会创造的价值远超过成本。
• 📈 Sam 认为，随着技术的发展，社会将需要适应新的形式，并且他担心社会适应新变化的速度。
• 🔍 他提到，尽管人们倾向于关注 AI 的灾难性风险，但更应该关注那些微妙的危险，因为这些往往被忽视。
• 🎉 最后，Sam 强调了 OpenAI 文化中的团队凝聚力和对实现 AGI（人工通用智能）这一共同使命的忠诚。

Q & A

Sam Altman 是如何描述他在斯坦福大学作为本科生时的感受的？

Sam Altman 描述他在斯坦福大学作为本科生时的感受用了三个词：兴奋（excited）、乐观（optimistic）和好奇（curious）。

Sam Altman 认为现在是一个创业的好时机吗？

是的，Sam Altman 认为现在可能是几百年来创业最好的时机，他认为世界正在发生巨大的变化，并且有机会去影响这个变化，无论是创立公司还是进行人工智能研究，都是非常好的机会。

Sam Altman 对于想要进入人工智能领域的斯坦福本科生有什么建议？

Sam Altman 建议如果学生确定想要创业，那么最好的学习方式就是去实际运营一个初创公司。他认为，尽管加入一个现有的公司可以学习到很多东西，但直接创业可以让你更快地学习和成长。

Sam Altman 认为未来几年人工智能领域最大的挑战是什么？

Sam Altman 没有具体说明他认为未来几年人工智能领域最大的挑战是什么，他建议听众不要从别人那里获取关于创业点子的建议，而应该自己去发现那些不明显的想法，并信任自己的直觉和思考过程。

Sam Altman 对于人工智能的未来发展有什么愿景？

Sam Altman 认为未来几年我们将拥有比现在强大得多的系统，他放弃了尝试给出人工通用智能（AGI）的具体时间表，但强调每年都会有更加强大的系统出现。

Sam Altman 如何看待人工智能可能带来的危险？

Sam Altman 更担心人工智能带来的微妙危险，而不是灾难性事件，因为灾难性危险已经得到了很多人的关注和讨论，而微妙的危险可能会被忽视。

Sam Altman 认为人工智能的未来发展对社会的影响会是怎样的？

Sam Altman 认为即使有了比人类在许多领域都更聪明的人工智能，人类的日常生活可能不会有太大的不同，但是在某些方面，比如拥有丰富的智能工具，将会有很大的不同。

Sam Altman 对于人工智能在空间探索或殖民化中的作用有什么看法？

Sam Altman 认为，由于太空对生物生命不太友好，发送机器人去探索或殖民可能更容易。

Sam Altman 如何评估创业想法是否具有非共识性？

Sam Altman 认为，评估一个想法是否具有非共识性是复杂的，因为不同的群体对技术的看法不同。他认为，最重要的是相信自己的直觉和思考过程，并且随着时间的推移，这种能力会变得更加容易。

Sam Altman 对于未来能源需求的变化和如何实现可再生能源的普及有什么看法？

Sam Altman 认为能源需求将会上升，并且他希望我们能够达到一个高标准，使得能源需求确实上升。他预测，最终可能是核聚变或者太阳能加储存成为地球上的主要电力来源。

Sam Altman 在离开然后又回到 OpenAI 的过程中学到了什么？

Sam Altman 学到了团队的韧性和能力，他意识到即使没有他，团队也能够运营公司。此外，他也认识到自己对 OpenAI、团队、文化和使命的热爱，这促使他决定回来继续共同推进公司的发展。

Sam Altman 如何看待 OpenAI 的组织结构，特别是非营利组织拥有营利性公司的部分？

Sam Altman 表示，OpenAI 的结构是随着时间的推移逐渐形成的，他们没有预见到会需要这么多资金用于计算，也没有预见到会有这么好的商业模式。他认为，尽管这个结构不是他们如果能够重新来过会做的选择，但他们在重要的事情上是正确的，并且他们将会继续根据需要调整结构。

Outlines

00:00

🎓 斯坦福大学创业思想领袖研讨会介绍

本段落介绍了斯坦福大学创业思想领袖(ETL)研讨会的背景，由斯坦福技术创新与创业工程中心(STVP)和斯坦福商业协会(Basis)共同举办。主讲人Rvike Balani教授对Sam Altman进行了介绍，Sam是OpenAI的联合创始人和CEO，该公司是研究和部署通用人工智能(AI)的先驱，旨在造福全人类。Sam的个人经历和成就被详细阐述，包括他在斯坦福的学习经历、参与Y Combinator的经历、以及他在Loopt公司的创业经历。

05:02

🚀 Sam Altman对未来AI研究和创业的展望

Sam Altman分享了他对AI未来的看法，包括如果回到19岁，他会选择投身于AI研究，并且可能会选择在私营部门而非学术界进行研究。他强调了独立思考和追求非共识想法的重要性，认为这是开创性工作的关键。他还提到了OpenAI面临的挑战，如构建更大规模的计算机系统，以及如何将高级智能转化为产品并对社会产生积极影响。

10:04

💰 OpenAI的财务状况和Sam对AI未来的预测

Sam讨论了OpenAI的财务状况，包括公司在AI模型研发上的巨额投资以及对未来技术发展的乐观态度。他提到了计算成本的增长，以及如何通过提供强大的工具来激发人们的创造力。Sam还表达了对AI技术逐步部署和迭代的重视，以及对AI技术未来发展的愿景，包括到2030年的世界将会如何变化。

15:06

🤖 AGI的定义、风险和对人类生活的影响

在这一段中，Sam讨论了人工通用智能(AGI)的定义，并对AGI的潜在风险和对人类生活的可能影响进行了深入探讨。他表达了对AI技术带来的微妙变化的担忧，并强调了社会适应新技术的速度。他还提到了对AI技术发展速度的不确定性，以及对AI技术如何影响全球经济和人类生活的深思。

20:08

🧘♂️ 自我认知与内在驱动力的探讨

Sam反思了他对自我驱动力的理解，包括他的优势、潜在的弱点以及他的内在动机。他讨论了如何识别和利用自己的多元技能，以及他如何平衡对技术的乐观态度和对潜在风险的认识。此外，他还探讨了不同阶段的职业生涯中驱动力的变化，以及他对未来AI技术发展的期待。

25:09

🌐 全球AI基础设施的建设和AGI的地缘政治影响

Sam讨论了全球AI基础设施的重要性，以及如何实现全球公平的AI技术访问。他还提到了不同国家对于建设本地AI基础设施的意识，以及OpenAI在其中可能扮演的角色。此外，他也谈到了AI技术对地缘政治和全球力量平衡可能产生的影响。

30:11

🤔 AI的不确定性识别与未来工作的挑战

Sam强调了构建能够识别自身不确定性和缺陷的AI系统的重要性。他认为，随着AI模型变得更加强大，我们需要更细致地迭代部署AI技术，并建立更紧密的反馈机制。他还讨论了如何负责任地部署AI，以及AI在空间探索等未来领域的潜在应用。

35:13

🔥 OpenAI的组织结构和文化对其成功的影响

Sam描述了OpenAI独特的组织结构，包括非营利组织拥有营利性公司的模式，以及这种结构如何适应公司的发展。他强调了OpenAI团队的韧性和对使命的忠诚，以及这些因素如何塑造了公司的文化和推动了其成功。他还提到了对于AI技术潜在滥用的担忧，以及如何通过建立反馈机制和与社会的合作来缓解这些风险。

40:14

🎉 Sam Altman的生日庆祝和对未来AI的展望

在最后的段落中，Sam反思了AI技术可能带来的变革，包括对未来工作方式和人类能力的影响。他讨论了AI技术如何成为社会智能的一部分，并为后代提供新的工具和可能性。Sam还提到了AI技术可能带来的挑战，以及如何通过建立一个反馈机制来确保AI技术的积极影响。

Keywords

💡创业思想领袖研讨会(ETL)

创业思想领袖研讨会(ETL)是斯坦福大学为有志于创业的学生举办的一个系列讲座。在视频中，ETL邀请了Sam Altman作为嘉宾，他是OpenAI的联合创始人和首席执行官。ETL由斯坦福创业工程中心(stvp)和斯坦福创业学生商业协会(Basis)共同提供，是视频中讨论的起点和背景。

💡OpenAI

OpenAI是一个研究和部署公司，以其开发的通用人工智能(AI)技术而闻名，如聊天机器人Dolly和Sora。Sam Altman在2015年共同创立了OpenAI，旨在创建对全人类有益的通用人工智能。在视频中，Sam讨论了OpenAI的使命和成就，以及AI技术的快速发展。

💡人工智能(AI)

人工智能(AI)是指由计算机系统或机器模仿、扩展和执行人类智能相关功能的技术。在视频中，AI是核心主题，讨论了AI如何改变世界、如何影响经济和日常生活，以及AI技术的未来发展方向。

💡迭代部署

迭代部署是一种产品开发方法，它允许产品在完成最终版本之前，通过一系列的小步骤或迭代进行改进和发布。在视频中，Sam Altman提到OpenAI采用迭代部署的方法来推出AI模型，如Chat GTB，以便社会和技术可以共同进化。

💡人工通用智能(AGI)

人工通用智能(AGI)是指能够执行任何智能任务的AI系统，与人类智能的广泛能力相当。在视频中，Sam Altman讨论了AGI的发展，以及它对社会和经济的潜在影响。

💡计算能力

计算能力指的是执行数据处理和执行算法的能力。在AI领域，随着模型变得更加复杂，对计算能力的需求也在增加。视频中提到，随着AI技术的发展，对更大、更快的计算机和数据中心的需求也在增长。

💡非共识思维

非共识思维是指持有与众不同的观点或想法，这些观点可能不被广泛接受或理解。在视频中，Sam Altman强调了独立思考和追求非共识想法的重要性，他认为这是创新和创业成功的关键。

💡自我意识

自我意识是指个人对自己内在思想、感受和动机的认识。在视频中，Sam Altman被问及他的自我意识，以及他如何识别自己的长处、弱点和驱动力，这些都是个人成长和领导力发展的重要组成部分。

💡韧性

韧性是指在面对挑战和逆境时的适应和恢复能力。在视频中，韧性被提到作为未来几十年中，随着技术和社会的快速变化，个人和组织需要培养的关键生活技能之一。

💡能源需求

能源需求指的是社会和经济活动对能源的消耗需求。在视频中，讨论了随着AI和其他技术的发展，能源需求将如何变化，以及如何实现可持续和可再生能源的未来发展。

💡全球创新

全球创新涉及世界各地的创新活动和合作，以促进技术和解决方案的发展。在视频中，Sam Altman讨论了全球创新的重要性，特别是在AI领域，以及如何确保全球公平地获得使用先进计算资源的机会。

Highlights

Sam Altman作为OpenAI的联合创始人和首席执行官，讨论了AI的未来和对人类社会的影响。

OpenAI是研究和部署通用人工智能的公司，目标是造福全人类。

Sam Altman的个人经历，从在St. Louis长大，到斯坦福大学学习，再到成为Y Combinator的总裁。

OpenAI创造了历史上增长最快的应用程序，ChatGBT在两个月内达到了1亿活跃用户。

Sam Altman对于AI研究和创业的看法，认为现在是创业的最佳时期。

对于想要进入AI领域的创业者，Sam建议他们追求非共识的想法。

Sam讨论了AI技术发展的速度，以及如何负责任地部署AI。

关于AI基础设施的重要性，以及OpenAI如何考虑整个生态系统。

Sam对AI技术成本增长的看法，以及OpenAI如何平衡研发成本和社会价值。

讨论了AI技术的迭代部署，以及如何让社会与技术共同进步。

Sam对AGI（人工通用智能）的定义和我们当前的理解进行了讨论。

关于AI带来的潜在危险，Sam更担心的是那些不易察觉的危险。

Sam分享了他在OpenAI的领导角色中获得的经验和教训。

讨论了OpenAI的组织结构，包括非营利组织和盈利公司的共生关系。

Sam对AI技术在全球化和地缘政治中的作用的看法。

关于AI系统如何识别并传达自身的不确定性和缺陷。

Sam讨论了OpenAI的企业文化，以及它是如何推动团队成功的。

对于AI技术的滥用问题，Sam认为需要整个社会共同努力来最小化负面影响。

Sam对于创造比人类更聪明的AI的前景表示既兴奋又谨慎。

Transcripts

[Music]

welcome to the entrepreneurial thought

leader seminar at Stanford

University this is the Stanford seminar

for aspiring entrepreneurs ETL is

brought to you by stvp the Stanford

entrepreneurship engineering center and

basis The Business Association of

Stanford entrepreneurial students I'm

rvie balani a lecturer in the management

science and engineering department and

the director of Alchemist and

accelerator for Enterprise startups and

today I have the pleasure of welcoming

Sam Altman to ETL

um Sam is the co-founder and CEO of open

AI open is not a word I would use to

describe the seats in this class and so

I think by virtue of that that everybody

already play knows open AI but for those

who don't openai is the research and

deployment company behind chat gbt Dolly

and Sora um Sam's life is a pattern of

breaking boundaries and transcending

what's possible both for himself and for

the world he grew up in the midwest in

St Louis came to Stanford took ETL as an

undergrad um for any and we we held on

to Stanford or Sam for two years he

studied computer science and then after

his sophomore year he joined the

inaugural class of Y combinator with a

Social Mobile app company called looped

um that then went on to go raise money

from Sequoia and others he then dropped

out of Stanford spent seven years on

looped which got Acquired and then he

rejoined Y combinator in an operational

role he became the president of Y

combinator from 2014 to 2019 and then in

2015 he co-founded open aai as a

nonprofit research lab with the mission

to build general purpose artificial

intelligence that benefits all Humanity

open aai has set the record for the

fastest growing app in history with the

launch of chat gbt which grew to 100

million active users just two months

after launch Sam was named one of

times's 100 most influential people in

the world he was also named times CEO of

the year in 2023 and he was also most

recently added to Forbes list of the

world's billionaires um Sam lives with

his husband in San Francisco and splits

his time between San Francisco and Napa

and he's also a vegetarian and so with

that please join me in welcoming Sam

Altman to the stage

and in full disclosure that was a longer

introduction than Sam probably would

have liked um brevity is the soul of wit

um and so we'll try to make the

questions more concise but this is this

is this is also Sam's birth week it's it

was his birthday on Monday and I

mentioned that just because I think this

is an auspicious moment both in terms of

time you're 39 now and also place you're

at Stanford in ETL that I would be

remiss if this wasn't sort of a moment

of just some reflection and I'm curious

if you reflect back on when you were

half a lifee younger when you were 19 in

ETL um if there were three words to

describe what your felt sense was like

as a Stanford undergrad what would those

three words be it's always hard

questions

um I was like ex uh you want three words

only okay uh you can you can go more Sam

you're you're the king of brevity uh

excited optimistic and curious okay and

what would be your three words

now I guess the same which is terrific

so there's been a constant thread even

though the world has changed and you

know a lot has changed in the last 19

years but that's going to pale in

comparison what's going to happen in the

next 19 yeah and so I need to ask you

for your advice if you were a Stanford

undergrad today so if you had a Freaky

Friday moment tomorrow you wake up and

suddenly you're 19 in inside of Stanford

undergrad knowing everything you know

what would you do would you drop be very

happy um I would feel like I was like

coming of age at the luckiest time

um like in several centuries probably I

think the degree to which the world is

is going to change and the the

opportunity to impact that um starting a

company doing AI research any number of

things is is like quite remarkable I

think this is probably the best time to

start I yeah I think I would say this I

think this is probably the best time to

start a companies since uh the internet

at least and maybe kind of like in the

history of technology I think with what

you can do with AI is like going to just

get more remarkable every year and the

greatest companies get created at times

like this the most impactful new

products get built at times like this so

um I would feel incredibly lucky uh and

I would be determined to make the most

of it and I would go figure out like

where I wanted to contribute and do it

and do you have a bias on where would

you contribute would you want to stay as

a student um would and if so would you

major in a certain major giving the pace

of of change probably I would not stay

as a student but only cuz like I didn't

and I think it's like reasonable to

assume people kind of are going to make

the same decisions they would make again

um I think staying as a student is a

perfectly good thing to do I just I it

would probably not be what I would have

picked no this is you this is you so you

have the Freaky Friday moment it's you

you're reborn and as a 19-year-old and

would you

yeah what I think I would again like I

think this is not a surprise cuz people

kind of are going to do what they're

going to do I think I would go work on

research and and and where might you do

that Sam I think I mean obviously I have

a bias towards open eye but I think

anywhere I could like do meaningful AI

research I would be like very thrilled

about but you'd be agnostic if that's

Academia or Private Industry

um I say this with sadness I think I

would pick

industry realistically um I think it's I

think to you kind of need to be the

place with so much compute M MH okay and

um if you did join um on the research

side would you join so we had kazer here

last week who was a big advocate of not

being a Founder but actually joining an

existing companies sort of learn learn

the chops for the for the students that

are wrestling with should I start a

company now at 19 or 20 or should I go

join another entrepreneurial either

research lab or Venture what advice

would you give them well since he gave

the case to join a company I'll give the

other one um which is I think you learn

a lot just starting a company and if

that's something you want to do at some

point there's this thing Paul Graham

says but I think it's like very deeply

true there's no pre-startup like there

is Premed you kind of just learn how to

run a startup by running a startup and

if if that's what you're pretty sure you

want to do you may as well jump in and

do it and so let's say so if somebody

wants to start a company they want to be

in AI um what do you think are the

biggest near-term challenges that you're

seeing in AI that are the ripest for a

startup and just to scope that what I

mean by that are what are the holes that

you think are the top priority needs for

open AI that open AI will not solve in

the next three years um yeah

so I think this is like a very

reasonable question to ask in some sense

but I think it's I'm not going to answer

it because I think you should

never take this kind of advice about

what startup to start ever from anyone

um I think by the time there's something

that is like the kind of thing that's

obvious enough that me or somebody else

will sit up here and say it it's

probably like not that great of a

startup idea and I totally understand

the impulse and I remember when I was

just like asking people like what

startup should I start

um but I I think like one of the most

important things I believe about having

an impactful career is you have to chart

your own course if if the thing that

you're thinking about is something that

someone else is going to do anyway or

more likely something that a lot of

people are going to do anyway

um you should be like somewhat skeptical

of that and I think a really good muscle

to build is coming up with the ideas

that are not the obvious ones to say so

I don't know what the really important

idea is that I'm not thinking of right

now but I'm very sure someone in this

room does it knows what that answer is

um and I think learning to trust

yourself and come up with your own ideas

and do the very like non-consensus

things like when we started open AI that

was an extremely non-consensus thing to

do and now it's like the very obvious

thing to do um now I only have the

obvious ideas CU I'm just like stuck in

this one frame but I'm sure you all have

the other

ones but are there so can I ask it

another way and I don't know if this is

fair or not but are what questions then

are you wrestling with that no one else

is talking

about how to build really big computers

I mean I think other people are talking

about that but we're probably like

looking at it through a lens that no one

else is quite imagining yet um

I mean we're we're definitely wrestling

with how we when we make not just like

grade school or middle schooler level

intelligence but like PhD level

intelligence and Beyond the best way to

put that into a product the best way to

have a positive impact with that on

society and people's lives we don't know

the answer to that yet so I think that's

like a pretty important thing to figure

out okay and can we continue on that

thread then of how to build really big

computers if that's really what's on

your mind can you share I know there's

been a lot of speculation and probably a

lot of here say too about um the

semiconductor Foundry Endeavor that you

are reportedly embarking on um can you

share what would make what what's the

vision what would make this different

than it's not just foundies although

that that's part of it it's like if if

you believe which we increasingly do at

this point that AI infrastructure is

going to be one of the most important

inputs to the Future this commodity that

everybody's going to want and that is

energy data centers chips chip design

new kinds of networks it's it's how we

look at that entire ecosystem um and how

we make a lot more of that and I don't

think it'll work to just look at one

piece or another but we we got to do the

whole thing okay so there's multiple big

problems yeah um I think like just this

is the Arc of human technological

history as we build bigger and more

complex systems and does it gross so you

know in terms of just like the compute

cost uh correct me if I'm wrong but chat

gbt 3 was I've heard it was $100 million

to do the model um and it was 100 175

billion parameters gbt 4 was cost $400

million with 10x the parameters it was

almost 4X the cost but 10x the

parameters correct me adjust me you know

it I I do know it but I won oh you can

you're invited to this is Stanford Sam

okay um uh but the the even if you don't

want to correct the actual numbers if

that's directionally correct um does the

cost do you think keep growing with each

subsequent yes and does it keep growing

multiplicatively uh probably I mean and

so the question then becomes how do we

how do you capitalize

that well look I I kind of think

that giving people really capable tools

and letting them figure out how they're

going to use this to build the future is

a super good thing to do and is super

valuable and I am super willing to bet

on the Ingenuity of you all and

everybody else in the world to figure

out what to do about this so there is

probably some more business-minded

person than me at open AI somewhere that

is worried about how much we're spending

um but I kind of

don't okay so that doesn't cross it so

you

know open ey is phenomenal chat gbt is

phenomenal um everything else all the

other models are

phenomenal it burned you've earned $520

million of cash last year that doesn't

concern you in terms of thinking about

the economic model of how do you

actually where's going to be the

monetization source well first of all

that's nice of you to say but Chachi PT

is not phenomenal like Chachi PT is like

mildly embarrassing at best um gp4 is

the dumbest model any of you will ever

ever have to use again by a lot um but

you know it's like important to ship

early and often and we believe in

iterative deployment like if we go build

AGI in a basement and then you know the

world is like kind

of blissfully walking blindfolded along

um I don't think that's like I don't

think that makes us like very good

neighbors um so I think it's important

given what we believe is going to happen

to express our view about what we

believe is going to happen um but more

than that the way to do it is to put the

product in people's hands um

and let Society co-evolve with the

technology let Society tell us what it

collectively and people individually

want from the technology how to

productize this in a way that's going to

be useful um where the model works

really well where it doesn't work really

well um give our leaders and

institutions time to react um give

people time to figure out how to

integrate this into their lives to learn

how to use the tool um sure some of you

all like cheat on your homework with it

but some of you all probably do like

very amazing amazing wonderful things

with it too um and as each generation

goes on uh I think that will expand

and and that means that we ship

imperfect products um but we we have a

very tight feedback loop and we learn

and we get better um and it does kind of

suck to ship a product that you're

embarrassed about but it's much better

than the alternative um and in this case

in particular where I think we really

owe it to society to deploy tively

um one thing we've learned is that Ai

and surprise don't go well together

people don't want to be surprised people

want a gradual roll out and the ability

to influence these systems um that's how

we're going to do it and there may

be there could totally be things in the

future that would change where we' think

iterative deployment isn't such a good

strategy um but it does feel like the

current best approach that we have and I

think we've gained a lot um from from

doing this and you know hopefully s the

larger world has gained something too

whether we burn 500 million a year or 5

billion or 50 billion a year I don't

care I genuinely don't as long as we can

I think stay on a trajectory where

eventually we create way more value for

society than that and as long as we can

figure out a way to pay the bills like

we're making AGI it's going to be

expensive it's totally worth it and so

and so do you have a I hear you do you

have a vision in 2030 of what if I say

you crushed it Sam it's 2030 you crushed

it what does the world look like to

you

um you know maybe in some very important

ways not that different uh

like we will be back here there will be

like a new set of students we'll be

talking about how startups are really

important and technology is really cool

we'll have this new great tool in the

world it'll

feel it would feel amazing if we got to

teleport forward six years today and

have this thing that was

like smarter than humans in many

subjects and could do these complicated

tasks for us and um you know like we

could have these like complicated

program written or This research done or

this business

started uh and yet like the Sun keeps

Rising the like people keep having their

human dramas life goes on so sort of

like super different in some sense that

we now have like abundant intelligence

at our fingertips

and then in some other sense like not

different at all okay and you mentioned

artificial general intellig AGI

artificial general intelligence and in

in a previous interview you you define

that as software that could mimic the

median competence of a or the competence

of a median human for tasks yeah um can

you give me is there time if you had to

do a best guess of when you think or

arrange you feel like that's going to

happen I think we need a more precise

definition of AGI for the timing

question um because at at this point

even with like the definition you just

gave which is a reasonable one there's

that's your I'm I'm I'm paring back what

you um said in an interview well that's

good cuz I'm going to criticize myself

okay um it's it's it's it's too loose of

a definition there's too much room for

misinterpretation in there um to I think

be really useful or get at what people

really want like I kind of think what

people want to know when they say like

what's the timeline to AGI is like when

is the world going to be super different

when is the rate of change going to get

super high when is the way the economy

Works going to be really different like

when does my life change

and that for a bunch of reasons may be

very different than we think like I can

totally imagine a world where we build

PhD level intelligence in any area and

you know we can make researchers way

more productive maybe we can even do

some autonomous research and in some

sense

like that sounds like it should change

the world a lot and I can imagine that

we do that and then we can detect no

change in global GDP growth for like

years afterwards something like that um

which is very strange to think about and

it was not my original intuition of how

this was all going to go so I don't know

how to give a precise timeline of when

we get to the Milestone people care

about but when we get to systems that

are way more capable than we have right

now one year and every year after and

that I think is the important point so

I've given up on trying to give the AGI

timeline but I think every year for the

next many we have dramatically more

capable systems every year um I want to

ask about the dangers of of AGI um and

gang I know there's tons of questions

for Sam in a few moments I'll be turning

it up so start start thinking about your

questions um a big focus on Stanford

right now is ethics and um can we talk

about you know how you perceive the

dangers of AGI and specifically do you

think the biggest Danger from AGI is

going to come from a cataclysmic event

which you know makes all the papers or

is it going to be more subtle and

pernicious sort of like you know like

how everybody has ADD right now from you

know using Tik Tok um is it are you more

concerned about the subtle dangers or

the cataclysmic dangers um or neither

I'm more concerned about the subtle

dangers because I think we're more

likely to overlook those the cataclysmic

dangers uh a lot of people talk about

and a lot of people think about and I

don't want to minimize those I think

they're really serious and a real thing

um but I think we at least know to look

out for that and spend a lot of effort

um the example you gave of everybody

getting add from Tik Tok or whatever I

don't think we knew to look out for and

that that's a really hard the the

unknown unknowns are really hard and so

I'd worry more about those although I

worry about both and are they unknown

unknowns are there any that you can name

that you're particularly worried about

well then I would kind of they'd be

unknown unknown um you can

I I am am worried just about so so even

though I think in the short term things

change less than we think as with other

major Technologies in the long term I

think they change more than we think and

I am worried about what rate Society can

adapt to something so new and how long

it'll take us to figure out the new

social contract versus how long we get

to do it um I'm worried about that okay

um I'm going to I'm going to open up so

I want to ask you a question about one

of the key things that we're now trying

to in

into the curriculum as things change so

rapidly is resilience that's really good

and and you

know and the Cornerstone of resilience

uh is is self-awareness and so and I'm

wondering um if you feel that you're

pretty self-aware of your driving

motivations as you are embarking on this

journey so first of all I think um I

believe resilience can be taught uh I

believe it has long been one of the most

important life skills um and in the

future I think in the over the next

couple of decades I think resilience and

adaptability will be more important

theyve been in a very long time so uh I

think that's really great um on the

self-awareness

question I think I'm self aware but I

think like everybody thinks they're

self-aware and whether I am or not is

sort of like hard to say from the inside

and can I ask you sort of the questions

that we ask in our intro classes on self

awareness sure it's like the Peter duer

framework so what do you think your

greatest strengths are

Sam

uh I think I'm not great at many things

but I'm good at a lot of things and I

think breath has become an underrated

thing in the world everyone gets like

hypers specialized so if you're good at

a lot of things you can seek connections

across them um I think you can then kind

of come up with the ideas that are

different than everybody else has or

that sort of experts in one area have

and what are your most dangerous

weaknesses

um most dangerous that's an interesting

framework for it

uh I think I have like a general bias to

be too Pro technology just cuz I'm

curious and I want to see where it goes

and I believe that technology is on the

whole a net good thing but I think that

is a worldview that has overall served

me and others well and thus got like a

lot of positive

reinforcement and is not always true and

when it's not been true has been like

pretty bad for a lot of people and then

Harvard psychologist David mcland has

this framework that all leaders are

driven by one of three Primal needs a

need for affiliation which is a need to

be liked a need for achievement and a

need for power if you had to rank list

those what would be

yours I think at various times in my

career all of those I think there these

like levels that people go through

um at this point I feel driven by like

wanting to do something useful and

interesting okay and I definitely had

like the money and the power and the

status phases okay and then where were

you when you most last felt most like

yourself I I

always and then one last question and

what are you most excited about with

chat gbt five that's coming out that uh

people

don't what are you what are you most

excited about with the of chat gbt that

we're all going to see

uh I don't know yet um I I mean I this

this sounds like a cop out answer but I

think the most important thing about gp5

or whatever we call that is just that

it's going to be smarter and this sounds

like a Dodge but I think that's like

among the most remarkable facts in human

history that we can just do something

and we can say right now with a high

degree of scientific certainty GPT 5 is

going to be smarter than a lot smarter

than GPT 4 GPT 6 going to be a lot

smarter than gbt 5 and we are not near

the top of this curve and we kind of

know what know what to do and this is

not like it's going to get better in one

area this is not like we're going to you

know it's not that it's always going to

get better at this eval or this subject

or this modality it's just going to be

smarter in the general

sense and I think the gravity of that

statement is still like underrated okay

that's great Sam guys Sam is really here

for you he wants to answer your question

so we're going to open it up hello um

thank you so much for joining joining us

uh I'm a junior here at Stanford I sort

of wanted to talk to you about

responsible deployment of AGI so as as

you guys could continually inch closer

to that how do you plan to deploy that

responsibly AI uh at open AI uh you know

to prevent uh you know stifling human

Innovation and continue to Spur that so

I'm actually not worried at all about

stifling of human Innovation I I really

deeply believe that people will just

surprise us on the upside with better

tools I think all of history suggest

that if you give people more leverage

they do more amazing things and that's

kind of like we all get to benefit from

that that's just kind of great I am

though increasingly worried about how

we're going to do this all responsibly I

think as the models get more capable we

have a higher and higher bar we do a lot

of things like uh red teaming and

external Audits and I think those are

all really good but I think as the

models get more capable we'll have to

deploy even more iteratively have an

even tighter feedback loop on looking at

how they're used and where they work and

where they don't work and this this

world that we used to do where we can

release a major model update every

couple of years we probably have to find

ways to like increase the granularity on

that and deploy more iteratively than we

have in the past and it's not super

obvious to us yet how to do that but I

think that'll be key to responsible

deployment and also the way we kind of

have all of the stakeholders negotiate

what the rules of AI need to be uh

that's going to get more comp Lex over

time too thank you next question where

here you mentioned before that there's a

growing need for larger and larger

computers and faster computers however

many parts of the world don't have the

infrastructure to build those data

centers or those large computers how do

you see um Global Innovation being

impacted by that so two parts to that

one

um no matter where the computers are

built I think Global and Equitable

access to use the computers for training

as well inference is super important um

one of the things that's like very C to

our mission is that we make chat GPT

available for free to as many people as

want to use it with the exception of

certain countries where we either can't

or don't for a good reason want to

operate um how we think about making

training compute more available to the

world is is uh going to become

increasingly important I I do think we

get to a world where we sort of think

about it as a human right to get access

to a certain amount of compute and we

got to figure out how to like distribute

that to people all around the world um

there's a second thing though which is I

think countries are going to

increasingly realize the importance of

having their own AI infrastructure and

we want to figure out a way and we're

now spending a lot of time traveling

around the world to build them in uh the

many countries that'll want to build

these and I hope we can play some small

role there in helping that happen trfic

thank

you U my question was what role do you

envision for AI in the future of like

space exploration or like

colonization um I think space is like

not that hospitable for biological life

obviously and so if we can send the

robots that seems

easier hey Sam so my question is for a

lot of the founders in the room and I'm

going to give you the question and then

I'm going to explain why I think it's

complicated um so my question is about

how you know an idea is

non-consensus and the reason I think

it's complicated is cu it's easy to

overthink um I think today even yourself

says AI is the place to start a company

I think that's pretty

consensus maybe rightfully so it's an

inflection point I think it's hard to

know if idea is non-consensus depending

on the group that you're talking about

the general public has a different view

of tech from The Tech Community and even

Tech Elites have a different point of

view from the tech community so I was

wondering how you verify that your idea

is non-consensus enough to

pursue um I mean first of all what you

really want is to be right being

contrarian and wrong still is wrong and

if you predicted like 17 out of the last

two recessions you probably were

contrarian for the two you got right

probably not even necessarily um but you

were wrong 15 other times and and

and so I think it's easy to get too

excited about being contrarian and and

again like the most important thing to

be right and the group is usually right

but where the most value is um is when

you are contrarian and

right

and and that doesn't always happen in

like sort of a zero one kind of way like

everybody in the room can agree that AI

is the right place to start the company

and if one person in the room figures

out the right company to start and then

successfully executes on that and

everybody else thinks ah that wasn't the

best thing you could do that's what

matters so it's okay to kind of like go

with conventional wisdom when it's right

and then find the area where you have

some unique Insight in terms of how to

do that um I do think surrounding

yourself with the right peer group is

really important and finding original

thinkers uh is important but there is

part of this where you kind of have to

do it Solo or at least part of it Solo

or with a few other people who are like

you know going to be your co-founders or

whatever

um and I think by the time you're too

far in the like how can I find the right

peer group you're somehow in the wrong

framework already um so like learning to

trust yourself and your own intuition

and your own thought process which gets

much easier over time no one no matter

what they said they say I think is like

truly great at this this when they're

just starting out you because like you

kind of just haven't built the muscle

and like all of your Social pressure and

all of like the evolutionary pressure

that produced you was against that so

it's it's something that like you get

better at over time and and and don't

hold yourself to too high of a standard

too early on

it Hi Sam um I'm curious to know what

your predictions are for how energy

demand will change in the coming decades

and how we achieve a future where

renewable energy sources are 1 set per

kilowatt

hour

um I mean it will go up for sure well

not for sure you can come up with all

these weird ways in which

like we all depressing future is where

it doesn't go up I would like it to go

up a lot I hope that we hold ourselves

to a high enough standard where it does

go up I I I forget exactly what the kind

of world's electrical gener generating

capacity is right now but let's say it's

like 3,000 4,000 gwatt something like

that even if we add another 100 gwatt

for AI it doesn't materially change it

that much but it changes it some and if

we start at a th gwatt for AI someday it

does that's a material change but there

are a lot of other things that we want

to do and energy does seem to correlate

quite a lot with quality of life we can

deliver for people

um my guess is that Fusion eventually

dominates electrical generation on Earth

um I think it should be the cheapest

most abundant most reliable densest

source

I could could be wrong with that and it

could be solar Plus Storage um and you

know my guess most likely is it's going

to be 820 one way or the other and

there'll be some cases where one of

those is better than the other but uh

those kind of seem like the the two bets

for like really global scale one cent

per kilowatt hour

energy Hi Sam I have a question it's

about op guide drop what happened last

year so what's the less you learn cuz

you talk about resilience so what's the

lesson you learn from left that company

and now coming back and what what made

you com in back because Microsoft also

gave you offer like can you share more

um I mean the best lesson I learned was

that uh we had an incredible team that

totally could have run the company

without me and did did for a couple of

days

um and you never and also that the team

was super resilient like we knew that a

CRA some crazy things and probably more

crazy things will happen to us between

here and AGI um as different parts of

the world have stronger and stronger

emotional reactions and the stakes keep

ratcheting up and you know I thought

that the team would do well under a lot

of pressure but you never really know

until you get to run the experiment and

we got to run the experiment and I

learned that the team was super

resilient and like ready to kind of run

the company um in terms of why I came

back you know I originally when the so

it was like the next morning the board

called me and like what do you think

about coming back and I was like no um

I'm mad um

and and then I thought about it and I

realized just like how much I loved open

AI um how much I loved the people the C

the culture we had built uh the mission

and I kind of like wanted to finish it

Al

together you you you emotionally I just

want to this is obviously a really

sensitive and one of one of oh it's it's

not but was I imagine that was okay well

then can we talk about the structure

about it because this Russian doll

structure of the open AI where you have

the nonprofit owning the for-profit um

you know when we're we're trying to

teach principal ger entrepreneur we got

here we got to the structure gradually

um it's not what I would go back and

pick if we could do it all over again

but we didn't think we were going to

have a product when we started we were

just going to be like a AI research lab

wasn't even clear we had no idea about a

language model or an API or chat GPT so

if if you're going to start a company

you got to have like some theory that

you're going to sell a product someday

and we didn't think we were going to we

didn't realize we're were going to need

so much money for compute we didn't

realize we were going to like have this

nice business um so what was your

intention when you started it we just

wanted to like push AI research forward

we thought that and I know this gets

back to motivations but that's the pure

motivation there's no motivation around

making money or or power I cannot

overstate how foreign of a concept like

I mean for you personally not for open

AI but you you weren't starting well I

had already made a lot of money so it

was not like a big I mean I I like I

don't want to like claim some like moral

Purity here it was just like that was

the of my life a dver driver okay

because there's this so and the reason

why I'm asking is just you know when

we're teaching about principle driven

entrepreneurship here you can you can

understand principles inferred from

organizational structures when the

United States was set up the

architecture of governance is the

Constitution it's got three branches of

government all these checks and balances

and you can infer certain principles

that you know there's a skepticism on

centralizing power that you know things

will move slowly it's hard to get things

to change but it'll be very very

stable if you you know not to parot

Billy eish but if you look at the open

AI structure and you think what was that

made for um it's a you have a like your

near hundred billion dollar valuation

and you've got a very very limited board

that's a nonprofit board which is

supposed to look after it's it's its

fiduciary duties to the again it's not

what we would have done if we knew then

what we know now but you don't get to

like play Life In Reverse and you have

to just like adapt there's a mission we

really cared about we thought we thought

AI was going to be really important we

thought we had an algorithm that learned

we knew it got better with scale we

didn't know how predictably it got

better with scale and we wanted to push

on this we thought this was like going

to be a very important thing in human

history and we didn't get everything

right but we were right on the big stuff

and our mission hasn't changed and we've

adapted the structure as we go and will

adapt it more in the future um but you

know like you

don't like life is not a problem set um

you don't get to like solve everything

really nicely all at once it doesn't

work quite like it works in the

classroom as you're doing it and my

advice is just like trust yourself to

adapt as you go it'll be a little bit

messy but you can do it and I just asked

this because of the significance of open

AI um you have a you have a board which

is all supposed to be independent

financially so that they're making these

decisions as a nonprofit thinking about

the stakeholder their stakeholder that

they are fiduciary of isn't the

shareholders it's Humanity um

everybody's independent there's no

Financial incentive that anybody has

that's on the board including yourself

with hope and AI um well Greg was I okay

first of all I think making money is a

good thing I think capitalism is a good

thing um my co-founders on the board

have had uh financial interest and I've

never once seen them not take the

gravity of the mission seriously um but

you know we've put a structure in place

that we think is a way to get um

incentives aligned and I do believe

incentives are superpowers but I'm sure

we'll evolve it more over time and I

think that's good not bad and with open

AI the new fund you're not you don't get

any carry in that and you're not

following on investments onto those okay

okay okay thank you we can keep talking

about this I I I know you want to go

back to students I do too so we'll go

we'll keep we'll keep going to the

students how do you expect that AGI will

change geopolitics and the balance of

power in the world um like maybe more

than any

other technology um I don't I I think

about that so much and I have such a

hard time saying what it's actually

going to do um I or or maybe more

accurately I have such a hard time

saying what it won't do and we were

talking earlier about how it's like not

going to CH maybe it won't change

day-to-day life that much but the

balance of power in the world it feels

like it does change a lot but I don't

have a deep answer of exactly how

thanks so much um I was wondering sorry

I was wondering in the deployment of

like general intelligence and also

responsible AI how much do you think is

it necessary that AI systems are somehow

capable of recognizing their own

insecurities or like uncertainties and

actually communicating them to the

outside world I I always get nervous

anthropomorphizing AI too much because I

think it like can lead to a bunch of

weird oversights but if we say like how

much can AI recognize its own

flaws uh I think that's very important

to build and right now and the ability

to like recognize an error in reasoning

um and have some sort of like

introspection ability like that that

that seems to me like really important

to

pursue hey s thank you for giving us

some of your time today and coming to

speak from the outside looking in we we

all hear about the culture and together

togetherness of open AI in addition to

the intensity and speed of what you guys

work out clearly seen from CH gbt and

all your breakthroughs and also in when

you were temporarily removed from the

company by the board and how all the all

of your employees tweeted open air is

nothing without its people what would

you say is the reason behind this is it

the binding mission to achieve AGI or

something even deeper what is pushing

the culture every

day I think it is the shared Mission um

I mean I think people like like each

other and we feel like we've you know

we're in the trenches together doing

this really hard thing um

but I think it really is like deep sense

of purpose and loyalty to the mission

and when you can create that I think it

is like the strongest force for Success

at any start at least that I've seen

among startups um and you know we try to

like select for that and people we hire

but even people who come in not really

believing that AGI is going to be such a

big deal and that getting it right is so

important tend to believe it after the

first three months or whatever and so

that's like that's a very powerful

cultural force that we have

thanks um currently there are a lot of

concerns about the misuse of AI in the

immediate term with issues like Global

conflicts and the election coming up

what do you think can be done by the

industry governments and honestly People

Like Us in the immediate term especially

with very strong open- Source

models one thing that I think is

important is not to pretend like this

technology or any other technology is

all good um I believe that AI will be

very net good tremendously net good um

but I think like with any other tool

um it'll be misused like you can do

great things with a hammer and you can

like kill people with a hammer um I

don't think that absolves us or you all

or Society from um trying to mitigate

the bad as much as we can and maximize

the good

but I do think it's important to realize

that with any sufficiently powerful Tool

uh you do put Power in the hands of tool

users or you make some decisions that

constrain what people in society can do

I think we have a voice in that I think

you all have a voice on that I think the

governments and our elected

representatives in Democratic process

processes have the loudest voice in

that but we're not going to get this

perfectly right like we Society are not

going to get this perfectly right

and a tight feedback loop I think is the

best way to get it closest to right um

and the way that that balance gets

negotiated of safety versus freedom and

autonomy um I think it's like worth

studying that with previous Technologies

and we'll do the best we can here we

Society will do the best we can

here um gang actually I've got to cut it

sorry I know um I'm wanty to be very

sensitive to time I know the the

interest far exceeds the time and the

love for Sam um Sam I know it is your

birthday I don't know if you can indulge

us because I know there's a lot of love

for you so I wonder if we can all just

sing Happy Birthday no no no please no

we want to make you very uncomfortable

one more question I'd much rather do one

more

question this is less interesting to you

thank you we can you can do one more

question

quickly day dear

Sam happy birthday to you

20 seconds of awkwardness is there a

burner question somebody who's got a

real burner and we only have 30 seconds

so make it

short um hi I wanted to ask if the

prospect of making something smarter

than any human could possibly be scares

you it of course does and I think it

would be like really weird and uh a bad

sign if it didn't scare me um humans

have gotten dramatically smarter and

more capable over time you are

dramatically more capable than your

great great grandparents and there's

almost no biological drift over that

period like sure you eat a little bit

better and you got better healthare um

maybe you eat worse I don't know um but

that's not the main reason you're more

capable um you are more capable because

the infrastructure of

society is way smarter and way more

capable than any human and and through

that it made you Society people that

came before you um made you uh the

internet the iPhone a huge amount of

knowledge available at your fingertips

and you can do things that your

predecessors would find absolutely

breathtaking

um Society is far smarter than you now

um Society is an AGI as far as you can

tell and the

the way that that happened was not any

individual's brain but the space between

all of us that scaffolding that we build

up um and contribute to Brick by Brick

step by step uh and then we use to go to

far greater Heights for the people that

come after us um things that are smarter

than us will contribute to that same

scaffolding um you will

have your children will have tools

available that you didn't um and that

scaffolding will have gotten built up to

Greater Heights

and that's always a little bit scary um

but I think it's like more way more good

than bad and people will do better

things and solve more problems and the

people of the future will be able to use

these new tools and the new scaffolding

that these new tools contribute to um if

you think about a world that has um AI

making a bunch of scientific discovery

what happens to that scientific progress

is it just gets added to the scaffolding

and then your kids can do new things

with it or you in 10 years can do new

things with it um but the way it's going

to feel to people uh I think is not that

there is this like much smarter entity

uh because we're much smarter in some

sense than the great great great

grandparents are more capable at least

um but that any individual person can

just do

more on that we're going to end it so

let's give Sam a round of applause

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