Warren Buffett Just Sold $100 Billion Worth of Stock.

Investor Center
10 Sept 202415:15

Summary

TLDRDer Video-Skript beleuchtet Warren Buffetts Aktionen im Jahr 2024, insbesondere die Verkäufe von Aktien im Wert von 97 Milliarden US-Dollar. Buffett, der früher für sein Halten von Aktien bekannt war, hat nun aufgrund des steigenden Aktienmarkts und möglicher zukünftiger Steuererhöhungen eine enorme Menge an Bargeld von 276 Milliarden US-Dollar angehäuft. Dies hat Anleger besorgt, da Buffetts frühere Aktionen vor Aktienmarktkrisen ein Zeichen für eine bevorstehende Korrektur waren. Der Aktienmarktwert in Bezug auf die US-Wirtschaft (Buffett-Indikator) ist aktuell höher als je zuvor, was auf eine mögliche Blase hindeutet und erklärt Buffetts Zurückhaltung bei neuen Investitionen.

Takeaways

  • 💼 Warren Buffett hat im ersten halben Jahr 2024 einen erstaunlichen Verkauf von 97 Milliarden Dollar an Aktien durchgeführt, was auf eine mögliche Bewertung der US-Aktienmärkte hindeutet.
  • 📉 Buffett hat in der Vergangenheit erfolgreich große Mengen an Bargeld angehäuft, bevor Aktienmärkte einbrachen, um dann günstig einzusteigen.
  • 📈 Die Aktien von Apple, ein Unternehmen, das Buffett zuvor für immer halten wollte, wurden im ersten halben Jahr 2024 im Wert von etwa 90 Milliarden Dollar verkauft.
  • 💰 Buffetts Aktienverkauf ist auf steigende Steuersätze zurückzuführen, was jedoch nur eine Oberflächenbegründung sein könnte.
  • 🔍 Buffett hat in früheren Jahren die Aktien von Apple als Teil der sogenannten 'Big Four' von Berkshire Hathaway bezeichnet, was auf deren Wichtigkeit für das Unternehmen hindeutet.
  • 🚨 Buffetts aktuelles Verhalten, große Mengen an Aktien zu verkaufen und keine neuen Investitionen zu tätigen, lässt auf eine mögliche Überbewertung des Aktienmarktes schließen.
  • 📊 Der 'Buffett-Indikator', der den Wert des US-Aktienmarktes in Relation zur Wirtschaftsgröße misst, zeigt derzeit ein Rekordhoch, was auf eine mögliche Blase hindeutet.
  • 🌐 Die US-Schulden haben ein historisches Hoch erreicht, was die Notwendigkeit von höheren Steuern in der Zukunft nahelegt.
  • 💡 Buffett betont, dass er keine Ideen hat, wie er das verfügbare Bargeld effektiv nutzen könnte, was darauf hindeutet, dass er die aktuellen Investitionsmöglichkeiten als unattraktiv erachtet.
  • 📚 Buffetts jährliche Briefe an die Aktionäre von Berkshire Hathaway sind für Investoren von großem Interesse und enthalten wertvolle Erkenntnisse über sein Investment-Philosophie.

Q & A

  • Wie hoch lag die Aktienverkäufe von Warren Buffett im ersten halben Jahr 2024?

    -Warren Buffett verkaufte im ersten halben Jahr 2024 einen erstaunlichen Betrag von 97 Milliarden US-Dollar an Aktien.

  • Was ist der sogenannte 'Buffett-Indikator' und wie wird er berechnet?

    -Der 'Buffett-Indikator' ist ein Maß für die Beurteilung von Aktienmarktbewertungen, der durch Warren Buffett geprägt wurde. Er wird berechnet, indem der Gesamtwert des US-Aktienmarktes durch das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) der USA dividiert wird.

  • Was zeigt der Buffett-Indikator für den Stand des US-Aktienmarktes zum Zeitpunkt der Videoerstellung?

    -Der Buffett-Indikator zeigte zum Zeitpunkt der Videoerstellung einen Wert von 202%, was auf ein historisch hohes Niveau des US-Aktienmarktes hinweist.

  • Warum hat Warren Buffett im Jahr 2024 eine große Menge an Aktien verkauft?

    -Buffett hat im Jahr 2024 eine große Menge an Aktien verkauft, weil er glaubt, dass der US-Aktienmarkt in einem massiven Blase ist und er auf der Suche nach attraktiven Investitionsmöglichkeiten ist, die seine hohen Standards erfüllen.

  • Wie hoch lag der Cash-Bestand von Berkshire Hathaway nach der Aktienverkaufsrunde von Buffett?

    -Nach der Aktienverkaufsrunde von Buffett lag der Cash-Bestand von Berkshire Hathaway bei einem erstaunlichen Betrag von 276 Milliarden US-Dollar.

  • Was hat Warren Buffett über die Steueraspekte seiner Aktienverkaufstätigkeiten gesagt?

    -Buffett argumentierte, dass er eine große Anzahl von Aktien verkaufte, weil er mit einer möglichen Erhöhung der Steuern rechnet, was die Einnahmen aus den Gewinnen der Verkaufsaktivitäten beeinträchtigen könnte.

  • Welche Rolle spielt die Bewertung von Apple-Aktien im Verkaufsentscheidungsprozess von Buffett?

    -Die Bewertung von Apple-Aktien hat eine wichtige Rolle gespielt, da Buffett beobachtet hat, dass der Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (PE-Verhältnis) von Apple signifikant gestiegen ist und er möglicherweise eine Überbewertung schätzt.

  • Warum hat Buffett seine Haltung an Apple-Aktien im ersten halben Jahr 2024 reduziert?

    -Buffett hat seine Haltung an Apple-Aktien reduziert, weil er annimmt, dass die Aktien möglicherweise überbewertet sind und er die Steueraspekte der Verkäufe als Grund für die Reduktion angegeben hat.

  • Was sagt Buffett über die aktuelle Situation des US-Aktienmarktes und seine Investitionsstrategie?

    -Buffett sagt, dass er und seine Teammitglieder keine effektive Verwendung für den Cash-Bestand finden konnten, was darauf hindeutet, dass sie die aktuellen Investitionsmöglichkeiten als unattraktiv erachten.

  • Wie hoch ist die US-Schuldenquote im Vergleich zum BIP und was bedeutet das für Buffetts Investitionsentscheidungen?

    -Die US-Schuldenquote im Vergleich zum BIP ist historisch hoch, was darauf hindeutet, dass die US-Regierung möglicherweise Steuern erhöhen muss, was wiederum Buffetts Entscheidungen beeinflusst, Aktien zu verkaufen und auf der Suche nach attraktiven Investitionsmöglichkeiten zu sein.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Warren Buffetts Aktienverkauf und Bargeldanlagen

Warren Buffett hat im ersten halben Jahr 2024 einen erstaunlichen Verkauf von 97 Milliarden US-Dollar an Aktien durchgeführt, während der US-Aktienmarkt weiterhin in ungewohnter Höhe klettert. Buffett hat in der Vergangenheit eine Vorliebe für das Aufbauen von Bargeldvorräten vor Aktienmarktkrisen gezeigt, was auf eine mögliche baldige Korrektur oder einen Absturz des Marktes hindeutet. Sein Bargeldbestand hat in den letzten zwei Jahren von 100 Milliarden auf fast 300 Milliarden US-Dollar fast verdreifacht, was Anleger alarmiert, da Buffett auch Aktien von Unternehmen wie Apple, die er zuvor für immer halten wollte, verkauft hat.

05:00

💼 Steueraspekte und die Entscheidung zum Verkauf von Aktien

Buffett gab an, dass er eine große Position in Apple-Aktien aufgrund von Steuergründen verkauft hat. Er argumentierte, dass die aktuelle Steuerbelastung von 21% im Vergleich zu früheren Raten von 35% oder 52% niedriger ist und dass eine Erhöhung der Steuern in der Zukunft wahrscheinlich ist. Dies könnte die Rendite der Aktienverkaufseinnahmen erheblich verringern. Buffetts Entscheidung, Apple-Aktien zu verkaufen, war jedoch auch auf die Bewertung von Apple zurückzuführen, die von einem PE-Verhältnis von 10 auf über 30 gestiegen ist, was auf eine mögliche Überbewertung hindeutet.

10:02

📉 Buffetts Zurückhaltung bei neuen Investitionen

Buffett hat kürzlich weniger in neue Investitionen investiert, was zu einem Anstauen von Bargeld geführt hat. Er selbst gab an, dass er keine effektive Verwendung für das Bargeld gefunden habe, was darauf hindeutet, dass er die aktuellen Aktienpreise für überteuert hält. Dies wird durch den sogenannten 'Buffett-Indikator' untermauert, der den Wert des US-Aktienmarktes im Verhältnis zur US-Wirtschaft misst. Mit einem Stand von 202% ist dieser Indikator bei einem Rekordhoch, was auf eine mögliche Blase im Aktienmarkt hinweist und erklärt Buffetts Zurückhaltung.

15:02

💡 Lernen von Buffetts Anlagestrategie

Der letzte Absatz des Textes deutet darauf hin, dass es weitere Ressourcen gibt, in denen Warren Buffett seine Anlagestrategie teilt, insbesondere wie man auch mit kleinen Beträgen hohe Renditen erzielen kann. Dies wird als Anregung für Anleger gesehen, die ernsthaft über Investitionen im Aktienmarkt nachdenken und von Buffetts langjähriger Erfahrung und Weisheit lernen möchten.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett ist ein legendärer Investor und der Vorstandsvorsitzende von Berkshire Hathaway. Im Video wird er als jemand, der das Aktieninvestment und die Kapitalanlage sehr gut beherrscht, dargestellt. Buffett verkauft große Mengen an Aktien und hält große Mengen an Barmitteln, was auf eine mögliche Überbewertung des Aktienmarktes hindeutet.

💡Barmittel

Barmittel beziehen sich auf liquide Mittel, die von Unternehmen oder Personen gehalten werden können, um auf zukünftige Investitionen oder Ausgaben zuzugreifen. Im Kontext des Videos hält Buffett eine enorme Menge an Barmitteln, was darauf hindeutet, dass er momentan keine attraktiven Investitionsmöglichkeiten sieht.

💡Aktienverkauf

Aktienverkauf bezieht sich auf den Prozess, bei dem Investoren ihre Aktien verkaufen. Buffett hat im Video im ersten halben Jahr 2024 einen erstaunlichen Verkauf von 97 Milliarden US-Dollar an Aktien durchgeführt, was auf eine mögliche Vorahnung einer Marktkrise hindeutet.

💡Aktienmarkt

Der Aktienmarkt ist ein Ort, an dem Unternehmen ihre Aktien an Investoren verkaufen und kaufen. Im Video wird darauf hingewiesen, dass der US-Aktienmarkt zu einem unangenehmen hohen Niveau gestiegen ist, was Buffett dazu veranlasst hat, Aktien zu verkaufen.

💡Bewertung

Bewertung bezieht sich auf die Einschätzung des Wertes eines Unternehmens oder einer Aktie. Im Video wird die Überbewertung des Aktienmarktes und insbesondere von Apple-Aktien diskutiert, was Buffett dazu veranlasst hat, seine Positionen zu reduzieren.

💡Buffett-Indikator

Der Buffett-Indikator ist ein Maß für die Aktienmarktbewertung, das den Wert des US-Aktienmarktes in Relation zur Wirtschaftsgröße des Landes misst. Im Video wird darauf hingewiesen, dass der Indikator bei 202% liegt, was auf eine mögliche Überbewertung des Marktes hindeutet.

💡Steuerbelastung

Steuerbelastung bezieht sich auf die Last, die von Steuern auf Unternehmen oder Personen ausgeübt wird. Buffett erwähnt im Video, dass er aufgrund der aktuellen Steuersätze und möglicher zukünftiger Erhöhungen von der Aktienverkauf profitiert.

💡Apple

Apple ist ein multinationales Technologieunternehmen, das eine der größten und wichtigsten Beteiligungen von Berkshire Hathaway ist. Im Video wird die Entscheidung Buffetts diskutiert, Apple-Aktien zu verkaufen, was auf eine mögliche Überbewertung und Steuergründe hindeutet.

💡Investitionen

Investitionen beziehen sich auf das Einlegen von Geld in Aktien, Immobilien oder andere Vermögensgegenstände, um zukünftige Gewinne zu erzielen. Im Video wird darauf hingewiesen, dass Buffett und Berkshire Hathaway aufgrund mangelnder attraktiver Investitionsmöglichkeiten zu viel Barmittel halten.

💡Berichte von Warren Buffett

Die Berichte von Warren Buffett sind jährliche Briefe, die er an die Aktionäre von Berkshire Hathaway richtet und in denen er über das Unternehmen und seine Investitionen spricht. Im Video wird erwähnt, dass diese Briefe für Investoren von großem Wert sind und dass sie im Video verwendet wurden, um Buffetts Ansichten über Apple zu untersuchen.

Highlights

Warren Buffett sold $97 billion worth of stock in the first half of 2024, possibly indicating a cautious stance on the market.

Buffett's actions suggest he might be preparing for a stock market downturn, similar to his behavior before previous crashes.

Buffett's cash pile at Berkshire Hathaway has grown to over $182 billion, a significant increase from previous years.

Buffett's past success in investing during market crashes after building cash reserves is highlighted.

The video discusses Buffett's recent sale of approximately $90 billion worth of Apple stock in 2024.

Buffett's tax-related explanation for selling Apple stock is presented, along with a discussion on potential future tax increases.

The transcript mentions Buffett's historical views on taxes and their impact on investment decisions.

Buffett's past praise for Apple as a 'family jewel' asset of Berkshire Hathaway is contrasted with his recent sales.

The video analyzes Apple's price to earnings ratio over time and its potential overvaluation.

Buffett's hesitance to make new investments due to a lack of attractive opportunities is discussed.

The 'Buffett Indicator' is introduced as a measure of stock market valuation relative to the economy.

The current Buffett Indicator reading is at its highest level ever, suggesting potential market overvaluation.

Buffett's cautious approach to the market is linked to the high valuations and his sitting on the sidelines.

The video concludes with a teaser for additional content on Buffett's investment strategies for generating high returns.

Transcripts

play00:01

uh this question is from Johan Halen who

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writes you're sitting on 168 billion of

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cash which you told us today is now more

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than $182 billion his questions are one

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what is Buffett waiting for and two why

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not at least deploy some of it well I

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think that's pretty easy to answer

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Warren Buffett sold the Staggering $97

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billion worth of stock through the first

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6 months of 2024 Yes you heard that

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right as the US Stock Market has

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continued to climb to uncomfortably high

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levels Buffett has been dumping shares

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to the tune of nearly $100 billion you

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need to be paying attention to this or

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else you could lose a lot of money if

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you ask waren Buffett he'll be the first

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to say that it's foolish to attempt to

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time the stock market however Buffett's

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actions tell quite a different story

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take a look at this chart the gray bars

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are berkshire's cash position at the end

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of each quarter the Orange Line

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represents the value of the S&P 500 the

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most frequently used us stock market

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index as we can see here despite what he

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may say in public Buffett has quite the

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track record of building large piles of

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cash ahead of a stock market crash in

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the buildup to the Doom crash of the

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early 2000s Buffett grew berkshire's

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cash pile by a factor of 10 Buffett then

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took advantage of the bubble bursting

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and spent down his cash by buying up

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stocks for cheap there is also the great

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financial crisis you can see that as the

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stock market continued to climb so did

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Buffett's cash pile the stock market

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went on to decline by a staggering 50%

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from its peak what did Buffett do you

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guessed it he used the cash he was

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sitting on to make some of the biggest

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and most successful Investments of his

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career the cash pile that Buffett has

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built now makes these prior examples

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look tiny by comparison as the US Stock

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Market has soared so is the amount of

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cash Buffett is holding raising alarm

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bells that Buffett thinks the US Stock

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Market is in a massive bubble Buffett's

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cash pile has now grown to a staggering

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$276

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billion as you can see here this cash

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pile has nearly tripled in just the past

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2 years growing from 100 billion in the

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summer of 2022 to nearly $300 billion as

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of the making of this video Buffett

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rapidly increasing his cash position has

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followers of Buffett very nervous you

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see in the past when cash increased at

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Berkshire it was slow and steady over a

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period of many years Berkshire hathway

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is a whole in company that owns dozens

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and dozens of different businesses these

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businesses generate cash in the form of

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profits from their operations in the

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past Buffett would slow down his pace of

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making Investments and cash would

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naturally pile up but oh boy is this

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time different I have studied Buffett's

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entire career and I have not been able

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to find another time where Buffett sold

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such a large portion of stocks in such a

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small time frame what's even more

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drawring is the fact that Buffett is

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selling stocks and companies that he

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previously said he planned to hold hold

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forever this includes Buffet selling a

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staggering roughly 90 billion worth of

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Apple stock in the first 6 months of

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2024 alone it wasn't too long ago when

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Buffett considered Apple to be one of

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the stocks he would likely never sell in

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Buffett's 2020 annual letter he called

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the steak and apple one of berkshire's

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family Jewel assets according to a

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simple Google search the term Family

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Jewels refers to valuable items

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belonging to a particular family and

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handed down from one generation to the

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next by Buffett calling the Apple steak

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a family Jewel of Berkshire he was

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essentially implying that this was a

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position Buffett planed to hold for the

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rest of his life in essence signaling

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that he was planning on passing down the

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steak and apple to the next generation

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of leaders at Berkshire hathway this

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praise for Apple was not just a onetime

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thing in Buffett's 2021 annual letter

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Buffett referred to Apple as part of

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Berkshire hathways so-called big four

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the four largest and most important

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Holdings to the future success of Bur

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the big four consisted of berkshire's

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massive Insurance operation Apple the

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railroad BNSF and the utility company

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Berkshire hathway energy notably apple

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is the only stock position to make this

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list the insurance operations BNSF and

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Berkshire hathway energy are all fully

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owned

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subsidiaries as a quick aside a big part

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of the research for this video involved

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going through Buffett's famous annual

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letters to see what he had to say about

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Apple Buffett's letters are considered a

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must read for those who want to learn

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about business and investing as a thank

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you for watching this video I have

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compiled 43 years worth of Buffets

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letters that you can download completely

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for free at the link in the description

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of this video make sure to check them

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out because they were super helpful for

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me and I'm sure they'll be just as

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useful for you with that out of the way

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let's get back to the

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video Buffett's past praise for Apple

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was a large reason why it was so

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shocking when he began to rapidly sell

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down the apple steak here's what had to

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say when asked why he has been selling

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shares of apple one thing that may

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surprise you we don't mind paying taxes

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at Burkshire we are paying a 21% federal

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rate on the gains we're taking in uh

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apple and that rate was 35% not that

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long ago and it's been 52% in the in the

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past the federal government owns a part

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of the earnings of the business we make

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they don't own the assets but they own a

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percentage of the

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earnings and uh they can change that

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percentage any year and the percentage

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that they've decreed currently is 21%

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and I would say with the present fiscal

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policies I think that something has to

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give and I think that higher taxes are

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quite likely and the government wants to

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take a greater share of your income or

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mine or burches they can do it and uh

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they may decide that someday they don't

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want the fiscal deficit to be this large

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because that has some important

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consequences and they may not want to

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decrease spending a lot and they may

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decide they'll take a larger percentage

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of what we earn and we'll pay it I would

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really hope with the all of America's

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done for all of you shouldn't bother you

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that we do it and if if I'm doing it at

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21% this year and we're doing it at a

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higher percentage later on I don't think

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you'll actually mind the the fact but uh

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we Sol a little apple this year as you

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just saw buffet was quick to say that

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his decision to sell a large portion of

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his position in apple was tax related

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however this simply doesn't tell the

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entire story the true reason why Buffett

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has been selling billions of stock

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lately is more concerning you'll see

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what I mean in a second but first let me

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explain Buffett's point on taxes Buffett

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spent approximately $31 billion

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acquiring shares in apple the majority

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of these shares were purchased between

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2016 and 2018 when Apple stock was

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trading well below current levels at the

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end of 2023 the value of the stake has

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swelled to a staggering

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$174

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billion this means that Buffett was

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sitting on a roughly $143 billion

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unrealized gain money that he would have

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to pay taxes on whenever he did

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eventually sell whatever the tax rate is

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at the time the stock is sold will

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greatly impact how much money Buffett

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and Berkshire will get to keep after

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paying the tax bill the Us corporate tax

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rate is currently sitting at 21% down

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from 35% as recently as 2017 and the

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lowest corporate tax rate in the post

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World War II period with a 21% tax rate

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Berkshire hathway would pay about 30

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billion in federal taxes and a $143

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billion gain however if that rate would

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increase back to 35% that tax bill would

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jump to a whopping $50 billion a full 20

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billion more dollars going to taxes buff

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it makes the case that given the current

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Financial challenges the US government

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is facing elected officials will

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eventually have no choice but to

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significantly raise taxes on

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corporations as we can see here the US

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federal debt to GDP is at its highest

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level ever higher than even when the US

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borrowed heavily and drastically

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downsized the civilian economy during

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World War II in fact the US is in so

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much debt that just the annual interest

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payments to stay current on this debt

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have officially surpassed what the

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country spends each year in both defense

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and Medicare for the first time ever

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with this background Buffett's argument

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about selling stocks ahead of higher

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potential taxes in the future seems to

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make sense on the surface however this

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does not tell the whole story the higher

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taxes argument is just a cover story if

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we read in between the lines we can see

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the true reasons as to why Buffett is

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selling is far more worrisome than just

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higher potential

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taxes now this isn't even coming from me

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here is Buffett in his own words in 2011

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Buffett wrote an opinion piece in the

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New York Times titled stop coddling the

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rich in this article he argued that the

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US government should significantly

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increase tax rates on investment returns

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here's what he had to say back in the

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1980s and 1990s tax rates for the rich

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were far higher and my percentage rate

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was in the middle of the pack according

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to a theory I sometimes hear I should

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have thrown a fit and refused to invest

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because of the elevated tax rates on

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capital gains and dividends I didn't

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refuse nor did others I have worked with

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investors for 60 years and I have yet to

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see anyone not even when capital gains

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rates were 39.9% in 1976 to 77 shy away

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from a sensible investment because of

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the tax rate on the potential gain

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people invest to make money and

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potential taxes have never scared them

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off here Buffett is making it abundantly

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clear that higher taxes have never

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factored into his investment decisions

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in fact you can find countless examples

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just like this one of Buffett striking a

play09:57

similar tone so after building a

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legendary career not factoring in tax

play10:01

rates into his investment process why is

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Buffett suddenly selling $100 billion

play10:06

worth of stocks over tax concerns as

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you're about to see the answer is

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worrisome it's no secret that Warren

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Buffett is the most closely followed

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investor on the planet he's one of only

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a handful of people with the power to

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move the stock market with just his

play10:21

words when he explained why he had been

play10:23

selling Apple stock buffet was speaking

play10:25

to a crowd of 40,000 people at the

play10:28

famous Berkshire haway way annual

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meeting in that crowd was none other

play10:32

than Tim Cook the CEO of Apple the

play10:35

comment Buffett would make it this venue

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eventually went on to be broadcasted to

play10:39

millions of people across the

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World Imagine the Uproar and ripple

play10:44

effects if Buffett would have told his

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Legion of loyal followers that he was

play10:48

selling Apple because it was overvalued

play10:50

Buffett obviously knows his every word

play10:52

is closely

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scrutinized therefore saying he was

play10:56

selling for tax reasons was a way to

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answer the question of why he was

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selling Apple stock without raising

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alarm Bells however the real reason as

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to why Buffett has been selling tens of

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billions of dollars worth of stock

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should be obvious to longtime Buffett

play11:09

followers take a look at this chart of

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Apple's price to earnings ratio over

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time when Buffett bought the vast

play11:15

majority of his stake in apple the stock

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was trading at a PE ratio of between 10

play11:19

and 15 at the time the majority of

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investors viewed apple as an

play11:23

undifferentiated Tech hardware company

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at risk of rapidly losing market share

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if a better competing product was

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introduced used Put It Simply Apple

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stock was unloved by investors now the

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company has universally become

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recognized as one of the best companies

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in the world as a result Apple's PE

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ratio has increased from 10 times when

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Buffett started buying it to over 30

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times now causing many value investors

play11:47

to worry that apple is significantly

play11:50

overvalued at the end of 2023

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berkshire's entire market cap was $800

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billion however the value of the Apple

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steak had grown to a whopping

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$174

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billion this means that the Apple stake

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alone was a staggering 22% of the entire

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company the potential overvaluation in

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Apple stock was simply too big for

play12:11

Buffett to ignore one factor that has

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caused this cash pilot Berkshire to grow

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significantly is Buffett selling large

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amounts of stock he previously owned

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however the other reason cash has

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accumulated is because Buffett has been

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eerily quiet when it comes to making new

play12:26

Investments Buffett is very clear as to

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why this is happening happening listen

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to what he had to say when asked why he

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has been sitting on the sidelines well I

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think that's pretty easy to

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answer I I don't think anybody sitting

play12:42

at this table has has any idea of how to

play12:48

use it effectively and therefore we

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don't we don't use it it isn't like I'm

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got a hunger strike or something like

play12:56

that going on uh it's just the

play13:00

they things aren't

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attractive as Buffett just mentioned the

play13:05

potential overvaluation in stocks

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spreads far beyond just apple one way to

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see how overvalued the stock market is

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right now is to look at what is referred

play13:14

to as the buffet indicator the buffet

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indicator was coined by yes you guessed

play13:19

it Warren Buffett Buffett described the

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ratio as the best single measure of

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where valuation stand at any given

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moment the buffet indicator expresses

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the value Val of the US stock market in

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terms of the size of the US economy if

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the stock market value is growing much

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faster than the actual economy then it

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may be in a bubble calculating the

play13:39

buffet indicator is incredibly

play13:41

straightforward just simply take the

play13:43

total value of the US Stock Market which

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as of the making of this video is $ 57.5

play13:48

trillion next you divide that number by

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the current size of the US economy as

play13:53

measured by gross domestic product the

play13:56

annual GDP currently stands at 28.4 $42

play14:00

trillion this leaves us with a reading

play14:02

of 202% from the buffet indicator now is

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this a good or bad number for the buffet

play14:08

indicator well you are about to be in

play14:10

for quite the surprise when you see a

play14:12

chart of the buffet indicator dating

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back to

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1950 at 202% the buffet indicator is

play14:18

essentially at its highest level ever

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the last time the buffet indicator was

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this high was back in 2021 when

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historically low interest rates caused

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the stock market to be in a Buble those

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good times did not last for long as the

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stock market had one of the worst years

play14:33

ever the following year in 2022 the S&P

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500 went on to fall nearly 20% and the

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NASDAQ fell by a staggering

play14:43

33% of course only time will tell what

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the future holds but this helps explain

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why Buffett is cautious and sitting on

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the sidelines if you made it this far in

play14:52

the video it's obvious you're serious

play14:54

about investing and want to learn how to

play14:56

make money investing in the stock market

play14:58

make sure to check out this video here

play15:00

because Warren Buffett provides the

play15:02

secret on how to generate High

play15:04

investment returns even with small sums

play15:06

of money I will see you over there

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