⚠️WATCH BEFORE MONDAY 9 30am! #PLTR #SOFI #TSLA #NVDA

Summary

In this video, the speaker delves into the current stock market analysis, focusing on Google and Palantir. They discuss Google’s potential weakness after its earnings report, the importance of staying above key support levels, and institutional selling. For Palantir, the speaker highlights its strong uptrend but advises caution before earnings, recommending put options as a safer strategy. Additionally, they emphasize using futures, especially the micro-mini S&P 500, to gauge market direction. With upcoming economic data, tariffs, and earnings releases, the video stresses strategic planning, risk management, and market awareness.

Takeaways

• 😀 Google stock's performance is heavily reliant on staying above $159, with potential weakness if it dips below this level.
• 📉 There is significant red volume on the 4-hour charts for Google, indicating heavy institutional selling into strength.
• ⚠️ A drop below $158.90 for Google could signal consolidation, suggesting the stock might not perform well in the short term.
• 📊 Palantir has shown strong growth with multiple breaks in structure and is approaching its all-time highs, but earnings risks are present.
• 🧐 Palantir is overbought based on current momentum and future expectations, making it a risky play right now ahead of earnings.
• 📅 Palantir's earnings on May 5th present a significant risk—if earnings miss expectations, the stock could fall back to $80-$95.
• 📈 The best time to have bought Palantir was when it was at $80-$90, as it’s now pushing near its all-time highs.
• 📉 A safer play for Palantir would be selling puts at lower levels (e.g., $80 or $85) a month out, as the stock might dip if earnings or external news disappoint.
• 📉 Focus on risk management when trading stocks near all-time highs, especially with upcoming earnings or uncertain market conditions.
• ⏰ Monitoring the S&P 500 futures (MEES) between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. can help predict market movements for the next day, especially between midnight and 4 a.m. when European markets are active.
• 🌍 Tariff negotiations and economic data this week could significantly influence market movements, so staying informed is crucial to making sound trading decisions.

Q & A

What does the speaker identify as a key level for Google (GOOGL) to stay above to avoid weakness?

The speaker suggests that Google (GOOGL) must stay above $159, specifically the 158.90 level, to avoid a potential dip into consolidation, signaling weakness in the stock.

Why is the red volume on the 4-hour charts for Google a concern?

The red volume on the 4-hour charts for Google indicates that institutional investors are selling into strength, which is a sign that they are locking in profits before potential uncertainty in the market, reflecting a lack of commitment to buying the stock.

What is the current sentiment surrounding Palantir (PLTR) stock as discussed in the transcript?

Palantir (PLTR) is in a strong uptrend, approaching its all-time highs. However, there are concerns due to the upcoming earnings report and the potential for a pullback if the earnings miss expectations or if tariff negotiations or economic data worsen.

What risks are associated with Palantir stock ahead of its earnings report?

The risks include a potential drop in Palantir's stock price if earnings miss expectations, tariffs have negative news, or if economic data is bad. The stock could fall back into the $80-$95 range if these factors play out unfavorably.

Why does the speaker advise against trading Palantir (PLTR) at its current levels?

The speaker advises against trading Palantir at its current levels due to the stock being overbought and approaching its all-time highs. Additionally, with earnings coming up, there is significant risk that the stock could drop if the earnings report or other economic factors disappoint.

What alternative strategy does the speaker suggest for Palantir (PLTR) stock?

The speaker suggests selling puts at lower levels, specifically at $85, which would provide a margin of safety if the stock drops due to bad news or missed earnings. This strategy involves selling puts with a longer timeframe (around one month) to give the stock time to stabilize.

What role do micro-mini S&P 500 futures (MEES) play in predicting market movements?

Micro-mini S&P 500 futures (MEES) are used as a precursor to gauge market direction, particularly on Sunday evenings. The speaker emphasizes watching the gap in futures to predict whether the market will open strong the following morning. Futures activity between midnight and 4 AM is especially important as it reflects trading activity from European markets.

How can trading futures help with market timing, according to the speaker?

Trading futures can help with market timing by providing early signals of market direction. The speaker recommends observing the futures market, especially the mini S&P 500 and mini NASDAQ, for any gaps or shifts that could indicate strong market movement when the U.S. market opens.

What external factors could influence the market in the coming weeks, based on the speaker’s analysis?

The market could be influenced by economic data, earnings reports, and tariff negotiations. The speaker highlights that Trump’s ongoing trade deals with 200 countries could have an impact on market conditions, and upcoming data releases will be key in determining the market's next move.

What does the speaker suggest about long-term investors in Palantir (PLTR)?

For long-term investors, the speaker suggests that the current price levels might not be as significant, as Palantir could still perform well over a 5 to 10-year horizon. However, short-term traders should be cautious due to the upcoming earnings report and other economic uncertainties.