Why South Korea is Literally Going Extinct

Summary

South Korea is experiencing an unprecedented demographic crisis with the world's lowest fertility rate, at 0.68 children per woman in 2024. This decline, accelerating faster than in any historical peacetime period, threatens to halve the population by 2100. Factors include economic pressures, a highly competitive society, and cultural shifts, leading to delayed marriage and childbirth. The consequences could be dire for the economy, societal structure, and global influence, with potential impacts on international relations and national security.

Takeaways

• 🌏 South Korea's fertility rate has reached an unprecedented low of 0.68 children per woman in 2024, the lowest ever recorded in peacetime history.
• 📉 To maintain a stable population, a society's fertility rate should average 2.1 children per woman; South Korea's rate has been well below this threshold for decades.
• 👶 The low fertility rate means that each generation in South Korea will be significantly smaller than the last, leading to a potential collapse in population size over the 21st century.
• 📊 The rapid decline in South Korea's fertility rate is historically unique, dropping from about six children per woman in 1960 to 0.8 by 2020, a much faster decline than other developed countries.
• 👥 South Korea's aging population and shrinking workforce will lead to a demographic imbalance where the elderly population may soon outnumber the working-age population.
• 🏢 The concentration of economic power in a few chaebol corporations has created intense competition for high-paying jobs, contributing to social stress and reluctance to have children.
• 🏠 Housing affordability is a significant issue in South Korea, with the average household needing over 20 years of income to afford an average-priced house.
• 💼 South Korean culture emphasizes long working hours and high levels of education, which can leave little time or desire for young people to start families.
• 💲 The cost of raising a child in South Korea is exceptionally high, deterring couples from having children due to financial concerns.
• 🏛️ South Korea's government has spent billions on incentives to increase the birth rate without success, indicating the complexity of the demographic challenge.
• 🔄 The country's potential solutions, such as immigration or raising the retirement age, are fraught with social and political challenges and may not be readily accepted.

Q & A

What is the current fertility rate in South Korea as of 2024 according to the script?

As of 2024, South Korea's fertility rate has reached a record low of 0.68 children per woman.

What is the significance of a fertility rate of 2.1 in maintaining a population?

A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered the replacement level necessary to maintain a constant population size in a society, without any additional immigration.

How does South Korea's fertility rate compare to other developed countries in the past?

South Korea's fertility rate falling below the 2.1 replacement level is not unique; many developed countries like the United States, Japan, Germany, and Australia experienced similar declines before South Korea. However, South Korea's rate has continued to decline unprecedentedly lower.

What was South Korea's fertility rate in 2013, and how did it compare globally at that time?

In 2013, South Korea's fertility rate was 1.2 children per woman, making it the lowest in the entire world at that time.

What are the implications of South Korea's fertility rate dropping below one child per woman?

A fertility rate below one child per woman implies that each generation will be significantly smaller than the previous one, leading to a rapid and potentially unsustainable population decline.

What is the projected population decline for South Korea by the early 2070s?

By the early 2070s, it is projected that South Korea's total population will diminish to around 36 million people, a net loss of about 16 million people or approximately 30% of the country's peak population in 2020.

How does the script describe the potential societal and economic impact of South Korea's declining fertility rate?

The script suggests that the declining fertility rate will lead to an aging population, increased financial burdens on the working-age population, potential downward pressure on the economy, and a decrease in the country's economic competitiveness.

What are some of the factors contributing to South Korea's low fertility rate according to the script?

Factors contributing to the low fertility rate include a highly competitive society, long working hours, high costs of living and raising children, a gender pay gap, and cultural expectations that make balancing career and family difficult.

How has South Korea's government attempted to address the low fertility rate?

The government has spent around 1% of its total GDP per year since 2006 on incentives such as tax breaks, cash grants for new parents, paid maternity leave, and even state-sponsored dating programs to encourage people to have more children.

What is the role of 'chaebols' in South Korea's economy and how do they impact the country's demographic challenges?

Chaebols are large family-owned conglomerates that dominate South Korea's economy, accounting for a significant portion of its GDP. They contribute to the intense competition for high-paying jobs, which can lead to social pressures and economic factors that discourage people from having children.

What are some potential solutions mentioned in the script to address South Korea's demographic challenges?

Potential solutions include restructuring the work culture, tackling housing and education affordability, bridging the gender pay gap, increasing automation, welcoming immigrants, and raising the retirement age.