The Spanish Population Is Disappearing @visualeconomiken

Summary

Spain is experiencing a severe demographic crisis with the lowest fertility rate in Europe at 1.16 children per woman, leading to a rapid population decline. Cultural shifts towards leisure and youth consumption, along with economic challenges like high housing costs, contribute to this trend. An aging population and political systems favoring the elderly exacerbate the issue, potentially leading to economic and social instability. The video explores the implications of this demographic winter and questions the effectiveness of immigration as a solution.

Takeaways

• 🇪🇸 Spain has the lowest fertility rate in Europe at 1.16 children per woman, which is insufficient for population replacement.
• 📉 If current trends continue, Spain's population could decrease from 42 million to 1.3 million within five generations, highlighting a severe demographic crisis.
• 🌐 The demographic issue is not unique to Spain but is particularly acute due to cultural and economic factors.
• 🏙️ Urbanization and modern leisure patterns are discouraging young people from having children, as city living is prioritized over rural life.
• 💔 The rise of singleness and fluid relationships has led to a significant increase in the number of single people of childbearing age, impacting birth rates.
• 👶 People are delaying parenthood, with more first-time mothers being in their late 30s than in their late 20s, which can lead to fertility challenges.
• 🧓 The aging population and the electoral system's bias towards rural areas, where the elderly are overrepresented, are influencing political priorities.
• 💰 Economic factors, including high taxes and housing costs, are significant barriers for young people considering having children.
• 🏠 Housing affordability is a significant issue, with younger people struggling to own homes compared to older generations who benefit from property investments.
• 👴 The elderly are receiving more public aid, including pensions and subsidized services, at the expense of support for young families.
• 🌡️ The potential economic consequences of an aging population include increased public debt, higher healthcare costs, and a strain on public services.

Q & A

What is the current fertility rate of Spain and what does it imply for the population?

The fertility rate of Spain is 1.16 children per woman, which is the lowest in Europe. This implies that for every couple, only one child is born on average, leading to a significant reduction in the native population over time, potentially halving within one generation.

How does the modern economy's focus on leisure and youth consumption impact Spain's birth rates?

The modern economy's emphasis on leisure and youth consumption, such as going to spas, boutique hotels, trendy restaurants, escape rooms, and techno festivals, is not compatible with raising children at home. This lifestyle preference, along with the desire to live in urban areas like Barcelona and Madrid, contributes to the low birth rates in Spain.

What cultural factors are contributing to the increase in singleness and fluid relationships among people of childbearing age in Spain?

Factors contributing to the increase in singleness and fluid relationships include less social pressure to marry, increased geographical mobility, the rise of social media reducing face-to-face encounters, and a desire for more people to enjoy their youth with sporadic intimate encounters.

Why are more people in Spain delaying parenthood to later ages?

People in Spain are delaying parenthood to take advantage of their youth and start a family later. The cultural shift has led to a situation where hospitals register more first-time mothers at the age of 38 than at 27, marking an unprecedented demographic anomaly.

What are the potential health-related consequences for women who delay childbirth until their mid-30s?

For women who delay childbirth until their mid-30s, there are several health-related consequences, including a natural drop in birth rates, increased risk of miscarriages, birth defects, early menopause, and difficulty in fertilization.

How does the current demographic situation in Spain affect the political landscape?

The demographic situation affects the political landscape as the majority of voters are now older, and the electoral system over-represents rural areas where the elderly live. This leads politicians to focus on short-term gains and policies that benefit the elderly rather than long-term solutions for younger generations.

What economic consequences does an aging population have on Spain's public accounts and social security system?

An aging population leads to a skyrocketing social security deficit, as there are fewer workers to support a larger elderly population. This results in increased government debt and a strain on public finances, potentially leading to higher taxes and reduced public services.

How does the demographic decline impact the infrastructure and public services in Spain?

Demographic decline can lead to difficulties in maintaining basic public services such as universities, hospitals, and transportation in regions with a dwindling population. This may result in reduced quality and availability of these services, as well as the potential closure of institutions that cannot operate efficiently with fewer people.

What is the 'empty Spain' problem and how does it relate to the country's demographic challenges?

The 'empty Spain' problem refers to the depopulation of rural areas due to the demographic decline. This can lead to a lack of essential services, businesses closing due to a lack of replacements, and a plummeting housing market in these regions.

What are the potential implications of immigration on Spain's demographic and economic situation?

Immigration could potentially alleviate the demographic decline by introducing a younger population. However, it is not a guaranteed solution, as immigrants often have a low income profile and may also adopt the local birth patterns, thus only delaying, not stopping, the demographic winter.

Why are politicians seemingly ignoring the demographic crisis despite its potential economic and social consequences?

The exact reasons for politicians ignoring the demographic crisis are not clear, but it may be due to the issue not being as easily marketable as other concerns like climate change, or because the full consequences may not be immediately apparent, leading to a lack of urgency in addressing the problem.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Spain's Looming Demographic Crisis

Spain is facing a significant demographic crisis due to its low fertility rate of 1.16 children per woman, the lowest in Europe. This rate suggests that the native population will halve within a generation, leading to a drastic population reduction over time. Cultural shifts towards leisure and youth consumption, along with the rise of singleness and fluid relationships, contribute to this decline. Urbanization and high housing prices in cities further discourage childbearing. The script also notes the trend of delaying parenthood, with more women having their first child at an older age, which can lead to fertility issues and involuntary childlessness. The societal and economic implications of this demographic shift are profound, affecting everything from politics to the economy.

05:02

🗳️ Political and Economic Implications of Spain's Aging Population

The script discusses the political ramifications of Spain's aging population, where the elderly have become the most influential voting group. The electoral system disproportionately represents rural areas, which are predominantly inhabited by older people. This has led to policies favoring the elderly, such as increased pensions and subsidized services, at the expense of family-friendly policies and public aid for children. The economic consequences are severe, with a growing social security deficit, increased healthcare costs for an aging population, and a potential tax burden on the younger generation. The script also touches on the potential for depopulation in rural areas, leading to the closure of essential services and businesses, and the impact on housing prices and property values.

10:06

🌍 Global Concerns Over Demographic Decline and Possible Solutions

The final paragraph of the script broadens the discussion to a global scale, highlighting that 97% of countries are experiencing fertility rates that cannot sustain their populations. It raises concerns about the potential collapse of economies without a working-age population to drive production. The script also explores the contentious issue of immigration as a potential solution to demographic decline, noting that immigrants often assimilate to the local birth patterns and may not significantly alleviate the problem. It concludes by posing questions to the audience about potential solutions and the severity of the demographic winter, emphasizing the urgency and complexity of the issue.

Keywords

💡Fertility Rate

Fertility rate refers to the average number of children born per woman. In the context of the video, Spain's fertility rate of 1.16 is the lowest among European countries, indicating that each couple on average has only one child, which is a significant factor contributing to the demographic crisis.

💡Demographic Crisis

A demographic crisis is a significant imbalance in population structure, often due to low birth rates, high death rates, or migration. The video discusses how Spain is facing such a crisis, with its population potentially halving within one generation due to the low fertility rate.

💡Cultural Shift

Cultural shift denotes changes in societal values, behaviors, and norms. The video attributes part of Spain's demographic problem to a cultural shift towards leisure and youth consumption, which is less compatible with raising children, affecting where people choose to live and their decisions about family planning.

💡Urbanization

Urbanization is the process of migration from rural to urban areas. The script mentions how young people are drawn to cities like Barcelona and Madrid for the recreational economy, leading to a depopulation of rural areas and contributing to the housing crisis and difficulty in raising children.

💡Singleness and Fluid Relationships

Singleness and fluid relationships refer to the trend of individuals choosing to remain single or engage in non-traditional romantic relationships. The video cites a rise in single individuals of childbearing age and the impact of social media and geographical mobility on this trend, which may delay or reduce the desire to have children.

💡Maternal Age

Maternal age is the age of a woman when she gives birth. The video points out that the average age of first-time mothers has increased significantly, which can lead to health complications and a lower likelihood of having multiple children, exacerbating the low birth rate.

💡Economic Factors

Economic factors are elements that influence financial decisions and behaviors. The script highlights how economic pressures, including high taxes and housing costs, contribute to the decision to delay or forgo having children, affecting the birth rate.

💡Political Consequences

Political consequences are the outcomes in the political sphere resulting from certain conditions or events. The video discusses how the aging population and low birth rate can lead to a political landscape skewed towards catering to the elderly, who are more likely to vote, impacting long-term policies and investments.

💡Public Accounts

Public accounts refer to the financial records of a government's revenues and expenditures. The script warns of the economic strain on public accounts due to the aging population and the increasing social security deficit, which may lead to higher taxes and potential bankruptcy of public finances.

💡Infrastructure

Infrastructure encompasses the basic physical and organizational structures needed for a society to function, such as roads, schools, and hospitals. The video suggests that an aging population could lead to the depopulation of certain areas, making it difficult to maintain essential infrastructure and services.

💡Immigration

Immigration is the movement of people to a new country or region to live. The script explores the idea of immigration as a potential solution to the demographic crisis, but also points out the complexities and the fact that immigrants may eventually adopt the low birth rates of the host country.

Highlights

Spain's fertility rate of 1.16 children per woman is the lowest in Europe, indicating a significant demographic crisis.

The native population of Spain is projected to be halved within one generation due to low birth rates.

Cultural shifts towards leisure and youth consumption are incompatible with child-rearing, contributing to the low birth rate.

Urbanization trends are causing housing prices in cities to rise while rural areas see a decline, impacting family formation.

Over 60% of people of childbearing age in Spain are single, with reasons ranging from social pressure to social media.

Delaying parenthood is common in Spain, with more first-time mothers at 38 than 27, reflecting a societal shift.

Postponing childbirth can lead to health and fertility issues, reducing the number of children born per family.

Spain's political system may become more dangerous as the majority of voters are now older, influencing policy.

The electoral system over-represents rural areas, which are predominantly elderly, impacting policy decisions.

Spain's retirees are living better, with the lowest poverty rate and increased purchasing power, while young people struggle.

Public aid for children and families in Spain is among the lowest in Europe, contributing to the low birth rate.

Economic factors and work-life balance are significant reasons for young women not having children in Spain.

Aging populations will lead to increased healthcare and social security costs, potentially leading to public finance bankruptcy.

Infrastructure challenges due to depopulation could result in the closure of universities and hospitals in rural areas.

Depopulation could lead to the abandonment of rural areas and a loss of property value for many.

Immigration is not a guaranteed solution to demographic issues, as it may not significantly alter birth rates.

Global demographic trends indicate a potential collapse in GDP and production due to population decline.

Politicians may be overlooking the demographic crisis, which could have severe long-term consequences.

Transcripts

Spain's population is disappearing among

all European countries the Hispanic

fertility rate of 1.16 children per

woman is the lowest of all this means

that for every couple only one baby will

be born in other words the native

population of Spain will be reduced by

half within one generation with only one

child for every two parents and so on if

the trend continues in just five

generations the number of Spaniards will

go from 42 million to 1.3 the entire

population of Spain would fit on an

island like tenor Reef which by the way

explains news like this Spain is facing

a major demographic crisis and we are

not aware of its seriousness of course

the demographic problem is not unique to

Spain it's something that is happening

all over the world but in Spain the

problem is severe the reason much of it

is cultural modern economies are

focusing on Leisure and youth

consumption going to a spa in a boutique

hotel to a new trendy restaurant of the

week to an escape room to a techno

Festival the new Leisure pattern are not

compatible with taking care of children

at home and there is no more proof of

this than seeing where people decide to

live because Have You Heard lots of

young people saying that their dream is

to go live in the mountain surrounded by

cows well no they all want to go to

Barcelona Madrid big cities where they

can better exploit the new recreational

economy this explains why housing prices

in urban regions are skyrocketing while

in rural parts of the country they are

plummeting this in turn makes it even

more difficult to raise children another

reason that could explain the phenomenon

is is the culture of singleness and

fluid relationships the rate of people

of childbearing age who are single has

skyrocketed to over 60% since 2008 there

are many reasons from less social

pressure to get married and start a

family to more common geographical

Mobility to fewer face-to-face

encounters due to the rise of social

media to Simply more people wanting to

enjoy their 20s with more sporadic

intimate encounters however this doesn't

mean that young people don't want to be

parents the feeling of family still

exists

what happens is that those who want to

be parents delay the age at which they

have their first children by a lot you

could say that they want to take

advantage of their youth and start a

family later in the past it was normal

to be a firsttime mother at 20 to 25

years of age but now hospitals register

more new mothers at 38 than 27 this is

an unprecedented anomaly and Spain leads

in the ranking of countries with the

most 39-year-old women having children

and yes I know what you're thinking is

it really a problem to delay the age of

Parenthood I mean if people want to have

kids they can have them at 25 or 40 but

at the end of the day they will have

them right not necessarily because after

the age of 35 women's birth rates drop

naturally unwanted miscarriages birth

defects early menopause difficulty in

fertilization many women who reach their

mid-30s wanting to have two or three

children end up having only one or none

because their bodies have reached their

natural limit to give you an idea almost

20% of women who have not had children

at the age of 35 have not done so

because they didn't want to but because

they have had problems related to their

health and fertility in other words they

run out of time delaying pregnancy is

equivalent to involuntarily decreasing

the birth rate in view of this the

question is why is Spain the European

country where the fewest children are

born and therefore where the problem is

most widespread what are the economic

and political consequences of

demographic collapse are their Solutions

today on visual economic we tell you all

about it

[Music]

the problem of no children being born in

Spain is not only a problem because the

population may disappear but also

because politics will become very

dangerous until 2016 it was normal for

the majority of Voters to be young

people in order to win votes politicians

had to govern with a long-term Vision

promoting opportunities for new

generations and investing in

familyfriendly policies however since

then things have changed now the most

important group of Voters are the old

group and the Spanish electoral system

is designed to over represent rural

areas which is precisely where the

elderly live and why is that the reason

is that each province no matter how few

people live in them elects a minimum

number of representatives in the

elections that is to say the less

densely populated a territory is the

more deputies it will elect in relation

to its inhabitants for example Madrid

only elects one Deputy for every 180,000

voters while in Teru one of the least

densely populated provinces one Deputy

is elected for every 40,000 voters this

means that the vote of a person in ter

Ru carries four times as much weight as

that of a person from Madrid and let me

ask you what kind of person do you think

lives in Teru indeed older people and

over time the difference will become

much more pronounced more and more young

people will live in the cities and older

people in areas like Teru as if this

were not enough since small rural areas

will elect two or three deputies only

the parties with the most votes will be

elected that is to say in Madrid 37

deputies are elected there is room for

dozens of parties however in rural areas

where only two or three representatives

are elected those deputies will belong

to the parties with the most votes the

other options small parties that could

represent the young minority in rural

areas would be left out the result the

elderly not only provide and will

continue to provide more votes but their

votes have and will have a much greater

influence for this reason politicians

don't need to worry about the longterm

for example if the country goes

massively into debt that debt will be

paid by the younger generation but the

elderly will not suffer the consequences

and that explains what we are seeing in

Spain from an electoral point of view it

is much more beneficial for Pedro

Sanchez to pay high pensions and win

votes from retirees besides saying that

you're helping the elderly always sounds

like a great political speech and pay

attention this is not speculation this

is really

happening retires are living better and

better they are the population group

with the lowest poverty rate they are

the only group group that has increased

their purchasing power between 2008 and

2022 and with the housing market it's a

very similar story at least eight out of

10 people over 65 own a home so they do

not pay a mortgage or rent nor will they

have children to support meanwhile only

three out of 10 people under the age of

35 own a home what's more the cost of

housing is now almost double what it was

40 years ago in other words back in the

day today's retirees paid a lot less for

their homes while young people right now

are drowning in expensive rents rental

properties whose landlords by the way

are often retirees who are renting

second homes in other words retirees are

the only group living better and better

despite not working and receiving their

income via taxes levied on young people

and the question that many of you may be

asking is what does this have to do with

fertility this is a graph showing the

amount of Public Aid to Children and

Families in Europe Spain is the country

that helps parents the least financially

it contributes even less than Greece the

money is no longer dedicated to

supporting families to have children

it's dedicated to raising pensions to

financing free public transportation for

retirees and even for subsidizing

vacations and no I am not

exaggerating Spanish pensioners receive

Aid that many can only dream of millions

of senior citizens both Spaniards and

foreigners living in Spain are eligible

for subsidized travel costing as little

as

€15 for short breaks and €

455 for longer vacations in Spain there

is no money for young people with

children children but there is money for

subsidized trips for pensioners what do

you expect we've already told you that

young people do not give votes now

knowing this let me ask you another

question can Spain really expect its

young people to have children if it

leaves them without money it seems quite

complicated and it's true that a large

part of the reason for fewer children

being born is cultural change but let's

not fool ourselves the economy continues

to play an important role nearly 35% of

young women up to the age of 35 who have

not had children say the reason was

economic or work life balance and at the

end of the day it makes sense with taxes

and housing prices higher than ever

being a mother is equivalent to falling

on the edge of poverty or directly into

it proof of this is that child poverty

risk rates in Spain are among the

highest in Europe and this only feeds

back into the social trend of young

people not wanting children in other

words we're talking about a vicious

circle Society is aging because children

are not being born politicians stop

spending money to promote the birth rate

because Young people do not provide

votes and this only causes the

population demographic to be even more

aged the result Spain is the country

with the lowest birth rate in Europe be

that as it may and apart from politics

and taxes what consequences could aging

have on the Spanish economy well there

are quite a few but let's look at them

in

order the first economic problem of

Aging will be the Public Accounts the

Social Security deficit is skyrocketing

which means that the pension system has

run out of steam so social contributions

do not contribute enough money to the

system to pay all the pensioners and the

government is already going into debt

and using money that should be going to

education or roads to sustain the system

the worst is yet to come when the Baby

Boomers reach retirement age a small

base of workers will have to support all

their Elders on top of that an aging

population will mean higher health care

and care costs practically 80% of a

person's healthc care costs over the

course of his or her lifetime are

incurred in old age age so with an aging

population these costs will Skyrocket

the outcome a brutal tax burden that

further impoverishes young people

infernal Hospital waiting lists and in

the worst case scenario the bankruptcy

of public

finances apart from the accounts another

problem will be infrastructure many

provinces will find it difficult to

provide basic public services such as

universities or hospitals which require

certain minimum population size is to

operate with reasonable efficiency for

example in the province of Lyon in 2020

2,278 people were born and let's imagine

that 60% of them will be ready for

University in 2038 this tells us that

the University of leyon will have

1,367 incoming students in 2038 or in

other words it will be almost impossible

to keep a quality University open at a

reasonable cost for so few people well

the same will happen with trains with

with fiber optic cables with hospitals

so let me ask you are you familiar with

the problem of the empty Spain well pay

attention because the demographic drop

will cause the first regions to

depopulate to be the rural ones we

talked about a point where in many

places there will not even be enough

residents for there to be a doctor a

teacher or an electrician among them

companies will also have no young people

to hire many functional businesses will

close for lack of Replacements and the

price of housing in depopulated

provinces will plummet in other words

since nobody will want to live in them

they will end up abandoned or if they

are lucky enough to avoid that it could

mean a massive loss of patrimony for

their owners lifetime savings will go

down the

drain another problem that many allude

to is that of the great replacement that

is the fear that immigrant populations

will eventually replace the locals which

in turn could lead to Fresh political

problems an example of this is the

possibility that the Muslim population

with strong religious convictions could

push for political parties that would

sooner or later pass legislation based

on Islamic law however others argue that

immigration would be positive that it

would alleviate the problem of Public

Accounts and could be the way to avoid

demographic collapse the question is who

is right neither one side nor the other

in the first place immigrants are no

guarantee of saving the Public Accounts

the reason is that immigrants to Spain

normally have a low income profile that

is they don't contribute much to taxes

but they will also have to receive a

pension and public public Healthcare in

the future in Denmark they have

calculated this in detail and indeed

bringing in immigrants costs them dearly

besides that immigrants and particularly

second generation immigrants tend to

assimilate the birth patterns of the

local population or to put it another

way that immigration in the best case

scenario would only delay the

demographic winter not stop it and it's

unlikely that there would be a great

replacement because they would also

collapse demographically you don't

believe me you don't have to all

countries that is all cultures are

facing at greater or lesser speed the

same problem fertility rates will see

dramatic decline with 97% of countries

unable to sustain populations everyone

is alarmed about global warming but at

the rate we're going with our population

GDP is likely to collapse sooner or

later without young people working there

is no production and without production

the economy also collapses and without

production emissions also plummet we

could reach a point where there aren't

even enough people to run the ships that

link the world's port s yet for some

reason politicians are ignoring this

problem what is the reason we certainly

don't know maybe it's not as easy to

Market as climate change but we are in

an unprecedented historical time never

before has the population been so large

we have never gone through a period of

sustained population loss and no matter

how much we speculate we may not see the

real consequences until it's too late

the question is are we in time to avoid

it well in a future video we'll talk

about possible solutions until then the

questions are over to you what would you

do to avoid the demographic winter is it

an issue that worries you what do you

think will be its worst consequence you

can leave us your answers down in the

comments if you like this video give us

a like subscribe so you don't miss any

of the upcoming ones and we'll see you

in the next one all the best see you

soon