Bitcoin (BTC): Upside Breakout! Bullish and Bearish Elliott Wave Analysis Scenarios

Summary

In this Bitcoin update, the presenter discusses a significant breakout above resistance levels, leading to a bullish five-wave move. With the Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference potentially introducing volatility, the focus is on micro-structure analysis and updated support levels. The video delves into the possibility of an extended wave 1, adjusting support regions for a potential wave 2 pullback, and emphasizes key levels at $56,600-720 and $75,000 as pivotal for market direction. The presenter also announces an upcoming analysis of the Injective Protocol following a Twitter poll.

Takeaways

• 📈 Bitcoin has experienced a breakout above the resistance area, indicating a strong upward movement from the Thursday low.
• 📊 The speaker is analyzing the micro structure of Bitcoin's price movements on a 30-minute chart, focusing on the move from the 5th of July low.
• 🔄 The speaker mentions a five-wave move to the upside, suggesting a bullish trend for Bitcoin.
• 📅 The Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference is highlighted as a potential source of market volatility, although it doesn't necessarily change the trend.
• 🚀 The speaker assumes that the market is in an extension of wave 1, after a high B-wave scenario was removed from the analysis.
• 🏆 The Injective Protocol was voted by Twitter followers to be analyzed, and the speaker promises an update on it.
• 📉 The speaker discusses two scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement: a bullish one and a 'very bullish' one, based on the five-wave move.
• 💰 The support region for a possible wave two pullback is adjusted to around $56,600-720, which is important for direct upside extensions.
• 📍 Key resistance levels are identified as $64,720 and $75,000, with the latter being a pivotal point for confirming a third wave.
• 📉 A break below $64,720 would suggest a larger wave two is unfolding, while a break above $75,000 would indicate the market is already in the third wave.
• 📝 The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on the levels rather than vague probabilities when making trading decisions.

Q & A

What significant event is being discussed in the video that could impact Bitcoin's volatility?

The Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference is mentioned as an event that could introduce volatility to Bitcoin's market, although it doesn't necessarily change the trend.

What is the current trend of Bitcoin according to the script?

The current trend of Bitcoin is up, with a confirmed five-wave move up from the Thursday low.

What is the significance of the five-wave move up in the Bitcoin market?

The five-wave move up signifies a bullish trend and the fulfillment of the minimum requirements for such a move, indicating a potential extension of wave 1.

What does the speaker mean by 'micro structure' on the 30-minute chart?

The micro structure refers to the detailed analysis of smaller price movements within the larger trend, specifically on a 30-minute chart scale.

What was the community's choice for the cryptocurrency to be analyzed on Twitter this weekend?

The community voted on Twitter, and the Injective protocol was the clear winner for the cryptocurrency to be analyzed.

What is the updated support level for a possible wave two pullback according to the speaker?

The updated support level for a possible wave two pullback is around $56,600 to $56,720.

What does the speaker consider as the key milestone for Bitcoin to be in the third wave?

The speaker considers a break above $75,000 as the key milestone to assume that Bitcoin is already in the third wave.

What are the two scenarios being discussed for Bitcoin's movement?

The two scenarios are: 1) A more probable scenario with a healthy wave two pullback, and 2) An alternative scenario where wave two has already bottomed, and the market is directly in a third wave.

What does the speaker suggest could be an opportunity for investors during a pullback?

The speaker suggests that any pullback could be an opportunity for investors, especially if it's a shallow pullback, as it might indicate the start of a more aggressive bullish trend.

What is the speaker's approach to trading decisions based on the analysis?

The speaker emphasizes focusing on the levels rather than vague probabilities, using specific support and resistance levels to guide trading decisions.

What are the next resistance levels mentioned for Bitcoin's price movement?

The next resistance levels mentioned are $70,000 as the previous swing high, then the $72k area, and finally, the $75k and $78k areas.