Bitcoin (BTC): Upside Breakout! Bullish and Bearish Elliott Wave Analysis Scenarios
Summary
TLDRIn this Bitcoin update, the presenter discusses a significant breakout above resistance levels, leading to a bullish five-wave move. With the Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference potentially introducing volatility, the focus is on micro-structure analysis and updated support levels. The video delves into the possibility of an extended wave 1, adjusting support regions for a potential wave 2 pullback, and emphasizes key levels at $56,600-720 and $75,000 as pivotal for market direction. The presenter also announces an upcoming analysis of the Injective Protocol following a Twitter poll.
Takeaways
- π Bitcoin has experienced a breakout above the resistance area, indicating a strong upward movement from the Thursday low.
- π The speaker is analyzing the micro structure of Bitcoin's price movements on a 30-minute chart, focusing on the move from the 5th of July low.
- π The speaker mentions a five-wave move to the upside, suggesting a bullish trend for Bitcoin.
- π The Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference is highlighted as a potential source of market volatility, although it doesn't necessarily change the trend.
- π The speaker assumes that the market is in an extension of wave 1, after a high B-wave scenario was removed from the analysis.
- π The Injective Protocol was voted by Twitter followers to be analyzed, and the speaker promises an update on it.
- π The speaker discusses two scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement: a bullish one and a 'very bullish' one, based on the five-wave move.
- π° The support region for a possible wave two pullback is adjusted to around $56,600-720, which is important for direct upside extensions.
- π Key resistance levels are identified as $64,720 and $75,000, with the latter being a pivotal point for confirming a third wave.
- π A break below $64,720 would suggest a larger wave two is unfolding, while a break above $75,000 would indicate the market is already in the third wave.
- π The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on the levels rather than vague probabilities when making trading decisions.
Q & A
What significant event is being discussed in the video that could impact Bitcoin's volatility?
-The Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference is mentioned as an event that could introduce volatility to Bitcoin's market, although it doesn't necessarily change the trend.
What is the current trend of Bitcoin according to the script?
-The current trend of Bitcoin is up, with a confirmed five-wave move up from the Thursday low.
What is the significance of the five-wave move up in the Bitcoin market?
-The five-wave move up signifies a bullish trend and the fulfillment of the minimum requirements for such a move, indicating a potential extension of wave 1.
What does the speaker mean by 'micro structure' on the 30-minute chart?
-The micro structure refers to the detailed analysis of smaller price movements within the larger trend, specifically on a 30-minute chart scale.
What was the community's choice for the cryptocurrency to be analyzed on Twitter this weekend?
-The community voted on Twitter, and the Injective protocol was the clear winner for the cryptocurrency to be analyzed.
What is the updated support level for a possible wave two pullback according to the speaker?
-The updated support level for a possible wave two pullback is around $56,600 to $56,720.
What does the speaker consider as the key milestone for Bitcoin to be in the third wave?
-The speaker considers a break above $75,000 as the key milestone to assume that Bitcoin is already in the third wave.
What are the two scenarios being discussed for Bitcoin's movement?
-The two scenarios are: 1) A more probable scenario with a healthy wave two pullback, and 2) An alternative scenario where wave two has already bottomed, and the market is directly in a third wave.
What does the speaker suggest could be an opportunity for investors during a pullback?
-The speaker suggests that any pullback could be an opportunity for investors, especially if it's a shallow pullback, as it might indicate the start of a more aggressive bullish trend.
What is the speaker's approach to trading decisions based on the analysis?
-The speaker emphasizes focusing on the levels rather than vague probabilities, using specific support and resistance levels to guide trading decisions.
What are the next resistance levels mentioned for Bitcoin's price movement?
-The next resistance levels mentioned are $70,000 as the previous swing high, then the $72k area, and finally, the $75k and $78k areas.
Outlines
π Bitcoin's Breakout and Analysis of Five Wave Move
The video begins with an introduction to a significant breakout in Bitcoin's price, which has surpassed a key resistance level, leading to a strong upward movement. The speaker discusses the micro-structure of Bitcoin's movement on a 30-minute chart, starting from the low point on July 5th. They update viewers on support levels and the importance of the Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference, which may introduce volatility. The speaker also mentions that the trend is up and that the fifth wave of the move was confirmed during the previous weekend. They suggest that the current situation might be an extension of wave 1 and have adjusted their analysis accordingly. The speaker also addresses the community's request for an analysis of the Injective Protocol, which was voted for on Twitter, and promises to release this analysis soon.
π Analyzing Bitcoin's Market Scenarios and Support Levels
In the second paragraph, the speaker delves into the potential scenarios for Bitcoin's market movement. They discuss the possibility of a deep pullback and the importance of observing the nature of the next rally to determine if it's corrective, which could lead to another dip and a great opportunity for accumulation before a third wave. The speaker also considers the alternative scenario where the second wave may have already bottomed out, suggesting a more aggressive bullish trend. They emphasize the importance of specific price levels, such as $64,720 as support and $75,000 as a key milestone, which if broken, would indicate the start of the third wave. The speaker advises focusing on these levels for trading decisions rather than vague probabilities. They conclude by discussing the current bullish stance of the market, the importance of monitoring the breakout above initial resistance, and the potential for further price increases, especially if the price remains above $64,720.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Bitcoin
π‘Breakout
π‘Five wave move
π‘Microstructure
π‘Support levels
π‘Volatility
π‘Trend
π‘Wave 1 extension
π‘Injective Protocol
π‘Bullish
π‘Pullback
π‘Risk management
Highlights
Bitcoin broke out above the next breakout point resistance area, indicating a strong upward movement.
The presenter will analyze the micro structure on the 30-minute chart from the 5th of July low.
Updated support levels are discussed, which are crucial for understanding potential market movements.
The Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference may introduce volatility but is unlikely to change the current uptrend.
Confirmation of a five-wave move up from the Thursday low, fulfilling the minimum requirements for such a move.
The presenter assumes that the market is in an extension of wave 1, revising previous high B-wave scenarios.
The results of a Twitter poll indicate that the Injective Protocol is the coin to be analyzed this weekend.
A detailed explanation of the five-wave move, including the newly labeled wave four.
The chart is described as bullish, with an emphasis on the potential for an even more bullish scenario.
Adjustment of the support region for a possible wave two pullback, with specific price points given.
Two potential scenarios are presented: a bullish market with a healthy wave two, or an alternative scenario where wave two has already bottomed.
The importance of watching for a break above 75,000 as a key milestone to confirm the market is in the third wave.
The presenter expresses a preference for a deep pullback for a cleaner market structure but acknowledges its unpredictability.
Risk management levels are discussed, emphasizing that support is not a target but a point that may or may not be tested.
The presenter outlines specific resistance levels to watch for market movement, including 70,000, 72k, and 75k.
A reminder that the support area will change if the market enters the third wave, with a new set of resistance levels.
The presenter concludes by emphasizing the importance of focusing on current chart levels and the breakout above initial resistance.
Transcripts
[Music]
hello and welcome to another update
video about Bitcoin yeah what a day
Bitcoin broke out above the next
breakout Point resistance area and we
have a pretty nice five wve move to the
upside now from the Thursday low so
we're going to take a look at the micro
structure in this video the micro INF
structure on the 30 minute chart um the
move from the 5th of July low and we
take a look at the updated support
levels and what really matters now um
bear in mind today you know we prepared
for that I tried to prepare you also
mentally for a volatile but POS POS
possibly positive weekend due to the
Bitcoin 2024 Nashville conference um
again you know events like these can
introduce volatility they don't
necessarily change the trend we already
highlighted a week ago way before that
actually the trend is up and that we
have a five wave move up well that fifth
wave was really confirmed I think when
we sort of entered last weekend um that
was a five-wave move then which
fulfilled the minimum the bare minimum
requirements at the time for a five wve
move I now assume that we're in an
extension of wave 1 um I've taken that
high b-wave scenario off the chart again
in the short term it didn't make on
doesn't make a difference but it doesn't
look right anymore it doesn't have the
right look with a high B wve here so I
took that out um but yeah we'll talk
about that in this video quick reminder
before I forget you guys voted on
Twitter um for a coin for me to analyze
specifically on Twitter this weekend the
votes came in and injective won okay so
the injective protocol is the clear
winner I know a lot of people have asked
on YouTube as well for a uh an injective
protocol update now um yeah that's going
to come out today I know a lot of people
are interested so let's uh let's you
know can you can check it out on Twitter
just make sure that you follow the
correct account you can find the link in
the description it's not uploaded yet
I'll probably do that in the next few
hours so you might want to you pay
attention to Twitter so um from the 5th
of July low I already mentioned we had a
five wave move up so wave one wave two
wave three wave four five I complained
from the beginning this wave four was
Tiny but valid now we have a healthy
wave four so I've relabeled it a bit um
highlighting that the wave four actually
ended here on Thursday which now gives
us a cleaner five wve move uh that
doesn't change that the chart is bullish
the chart is bullish maybe even a little
bit more bullish now and what I have to
do though if the wave 1
extends I have to adjust the support
region for a possible wave two pullback
so if a wave two pullback starts
somewhere from this region then support
should be found around $
56,600 720 this is the support area for
direct upside extensions let me explain
that
further so we just shift out of this a
little higher so we have two scenarios
the chart is bullish question is is it
bullish or bullish bullish okay so I
promised you um I remember that in the
bare Market I remember in the bare
Market when people said okay we have a
bullish and a bearish scenario well I
told you that in the bull market there
will be scenarios where we have a
bullish one and a very bullish one and
this is what we're dealing with right
right now especially due to the five
wave move up that we've seen into the
rally of well last Sunday's High um but
we get another extension it seems for me
the slightly more probable scenario
because I prefer to have a healthy wave
two all right I prefer to have a healthy
wave two but it is possible in the
alternative scenario that wave two
already bottomed here on Thursday and
we're directly in a third wave so if we
are already in the third wave then we'd
be looking at something more
aggressively bullish like this Wave 1
wave two wave three 4 five so this would
be a more dark directly bullish scenario
which is why I have added the upper
support region because it supports
direct directly Rising prices so maybe I
should put the alternative wave two in
white then so that suggests or indicates
how we could move up higher more
directly so any pullback could be an
opportunity the question is is the
shallow pullback sufficient to support
Rising prices and to end the correction
or if a correction starts from here does
the entire move up need to be
corrected it's difficult to say um it is
bullish or bullish I would use the well
I'm I would I would like to see a deep
pullback we won't know until we get a
pullback and then see the nature of the
next rally if that's corrective it
should lead to another dip and then this
would be an amazing opportunity once
more for accumulation before we go up
higher likely in a third wave I cannot
rule out
shallow pullbacks and I cannot rule out
that the wave two already bottomed which
is why I try to warn all week that
pullbacks can be shallow it's it's just
not predictable I can also I mean to a
degree yeah because as you know I
mentioned it that now we might be
entering a phase where pullbacks are
shallow is just you know how in how far
you know do do we really believe it that
that's the thing you know that because
the risk management levels don't change
so the support is not a Target
this is just support it's it supports
the price doesn't mean it has to test it
the price might test it at some point
but maybe not yet
so yeah bullish in the meantime um in
the very short term against
64720 and in other words it takes a
break below
64720 to suggest that the larger wave
two is unfolding if we just keep going
keep going keep going and the price
breaks above 75,000 which is a key
Milestone here key pivot that is when I
will assume that we're already in the
third wave okay and that I will stop
watching for a wave to can I tell you
which one is more likely I I wouldn't
base my trading decisions based on vague
probabilities it's about the levels okay
so I have no way to calculate uh which
one is more likely usually you would say
it's the deeper pullback will happen at
some point but I would rather focus on
the levels so I just told you that we
can be bullish directly against 64,000
720 and we can uh take out the Deep Wave
2 scenario if there is a break Above
75,100 So at the moment I think both are
similarly likely um I would like to see
a deep pullback doesn't mean it has to
happen um it would be the nicer
structure to work
with but we know clearly which levels
matter so it's 75,000 and to the
downside
64720 next resistances
here previous swing high at 70,000
pretty much and then above the 72k
area yep and then we enter here 75k 78k
so but at that time we will already be
in the third wave and the support area
will change so this is how I see the
market at the moment again a little bit
you know surrounding that I'd say today
obviously the day isn't over yet and
Nashville conference there might be a
bit of I don't know bu the rumor sell
the news who knows um the levels do
matter focus on what we see right now in
the charts and we broke out above
initial resistance and I don't see any
sign of a of a pullback yet so we could
still push higher um especially against
64720 here this could have been a micro
like small triangle or something maybe
it's difficult to say which level really
matters for direct upside continuation
I'd say the last swing low a break below
6890 here would be the earliest
indication that top of Swords has formed
I hope that helps hope you like the
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content thanks a lot for watching
bye-bye
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