Bitcoin (BTC): Get Ready for a New Trading Week! Bullish and Bearish Elliott Wave Analysis Scenarios
Summary
TLDRIn this Bitcoin update video, the host discusses intraday market movements, focusing on potential bullish scenarios and resistance levels. They analyze wave counts on smaller time frames, considering whether the current dip is part of a larger bullish trend or signaling a more bearish turn. Key support and resistance levels are identified, with 72k and 75k as critical breakout points, while a break below 56.7k could shift the outlook to bearish. The video emphasizes the importance of monitoring price action for potential entry points in an uptrend.
Takeaways
- π The speaker provides an intraday update on Bitcoin's price movements, noting a small reaction to resistance but not considering it a sell-off.
- π The script discusses two bullish scenarios for Bitcoin's wave count, questioning whether the market is in the third wave of an upward trend or still in Wave 1.
- ποΈ A substantial low was identified on the 5th of July, which sets the base for the bullish thesis, suggesting a five-wave move up.
- π’ The Fibonacci (FIB) levels are mentioned, with 72k and 72830 as potential resistance levels, indicating price targets for Bitcoin's upward movement.
- π The speaker acknowledges a possible extension of the current wave, suggesting Bitcoin could reach higher prices before a potential pullback.
- π The support zone for a potential Wave 2 pullback is identified as 56737 to 63070, indicating where the price could find support if it dips.
- π The importance of the last swing low at 66800 is highlighted as an early indication that Wave 1 might be complete.
- π« Two confirmation levels for the completion of Wave 1 are given: a break below 66800 and below the upper support region of 64831.
- π’ The speaker considers a break above 72200 and 74800 as confirmation of the third wave unfolding, indicating a stronger bullish trend.
- π The script mentions bearish divergences on smaller time frames, such as the 1-hour chart, which could signal potential weakness in the short term.
- π Key resistance and support levels are identified, with the next breakout point being the last swing high at 70k, followed by 72k and the FIB level at 72.2k.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video update?
-The main topic of the video update is the intraday analysis of Bitcoin's price movement and potential scenarios for its future trend.
What does the speaker suggest about the current reaction to the resistance line?
-The speaker suggests that the current reaction to the resistance line is not a sell-off but could be a dip that might turn into something more bearish.
What are the two scenarios the speaker is watching for in the Bitcoin price structure?
-The two scenarios are whether Bitcoin is already in the third wave to the upside or still stuck in Wave 1, with both scenarios being bullish but differing in their wave counts.
What is the significance of the date mentioned, July 5th, in the script?
-July 5th is significant as it marks the potential bottoming of Wave 4, setting the base case for the wave count analysis.
What is the potential next major Fibonacci (FIB) level mentioned in the script?
-The potential next major Fibonacci level mentioned is 72,830, which could be a resistance point for Bitcoin's price movement.
What does the speaker mean by 'running flat' in the context of wave analysis?
-In the context of wave analysis, 'running flat' refers to a corrective wave pattern where the price does not move significantly, potentially setting up for another high.
What is the '61.8 extension' mentioned in the script and its significance?
-The '61.8 extension' is a Fibonacci extension level used in technical analysis to predict potential price movements. It signifies a resistance level at 72,200, which is important for determining the continuation of the bullish trend.
What is the support zone for Wave 2 mentioned in the script?
-The support zone for Wave 2 is between 56,737 and 63,027, indicating the price levels where the market might find support if Wave 1 has completed.
What are the earliest indications that Wave 5 of Wave 1 is complete according to the speaker?
-The earliest indications that Wave 5 of Wave 1 is complete would be a break below the last swing low formed at 66,800, providing an initial signal of a potential trend reversal.
What does the speaker suggest about the potential opportunities in the market?
-The speaker suggests that pullbacks in uptrends can offer great opportunities, and if the price dips into the yellow box, it would be a chance to enter the market with a bullish perspective.
What would change the speaker's perspective to a more bearish outlook?
-The speaker's perspective would change to a more bearish outlook if there is a break below 56,737, indicating a significant shift in the market trend.
Outlines
π Bitcoin Intraday Update: Rising Trends and Key Levels
This video provides an intraday update on Bitcoin's current market behavior. The speaker discusses a small reaction to a resistance line, describing it as a dip rather than a sell-off. Two bullish scenarios are considered: whether Bitcoin is already in the third wave up or still in Wave 1. The wave count analysis indicates a potential completion of Wave 1 at around 72k to 75k, with further resistance at these levels. The video highlights the importance of watching for structural support around 66.8k and 64.8k to confirm if a wave has topped, as well as opportunities for pullbacks to be potential buying points.
π Monitoring Key Levels and Market Opportunities
The discussion continues with an analysis of key resistance and support levels for Bitcoin. The speaker emphasizes the significance of the 72.2k and 75k levels as critical for confirming the continuation of the third wave. They also outline the importance of the 66.7k and 64.8k levels as indicators of a potential wave top. The current market conditions are described as bullish, with a watchful eye on any pullbacks that may present buying opportunities. The video concludes with a call to action for viewers to like, comment, subscribe, and check out additional content on the channel's other platforms.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Bitcoin
π‘Intraday update
π‘Resistance line
π‘Wave count
π‘Bullish
π‘Fibonacci levels
π‘Confluence of resistance
π‘Pullback
π‘Support zone
π‘Divergence
π‘Breakout point
Highlights
Introduction to an intraday update video about Bitcoin's market movement.
Current market is grinding higher with a small reaction to resistance line.
Dip in the market may be turning into a more bearish trend.
Many are waiting for a pullback in the market.
Focus on smaller time frame perspective for updates.
Two bullish scenarios presented based on wave count analysis.
Discussion on whether the market is in the third wave to the upside or still in Wave 1.
Wave count suggests a substantial low on the 5th of July as the base case.
Potential for a five-wave move up with Wave 4 possibly bottoming on the 5th of July.
Analysis of the Fibonacci extension levels for potential resistance points.
Confluence of resistance around 72k as a significant price point.
Support zones for Wave 2 identified for potential pullbacks.
Bullish stance as long as the price holds above 56.7k.
Potential opportunities in pullbacks during uptrends.
Early indication of Wave 5 completion would be a break below the last swing low at 66.8k.
Confirmation levels for Wave completion and potential market direction.
Break above 72.2k and 74.8k could confirm the unfolding of the third wave.
Importance of the last swing high and resistance line at 70k for the next breakout point.
Current market situation is in a range, with a breakout potential but not a sell-off.
Bearish divergences might be forming on the 1-hour chart.
Overall bullish scenarios with potential opportunities in pullbacks.
Perspective may change to more bearish if a break below 56.77k occurs.
Transcripts
[Music]
hello hello and welcome to another
update video about Bitcoin just a quick
intraday update here as we are grinding
higher yes we've seen a small reaction
now to the next to our resistance line
here but I wouldn't call that a sell off
you know this is just at the moment a
dip maybe it's turning into something
more bearish but again you know I think
a lot of people are actually waiting for
a bit of a pullback here so let's take a
look at the structure I only want to
share with you the smaller time frame my
perspective about the smaller time frame
any updates because the previous update
already included the daily chart uh if
you're interested in updates about the
daily chart maybe check out the previous
video I uploaded earlier today but here
this is just an intraday update
um watching for two scenarios um here
basically to keep it very simple the
first scenario is the yellow count both
are bullish by the way both are bullish
it's just um the question is just are we
already in the third wave to the upside
or are we still stuck in Wave 1 so we
have in the yellow well let's let's
start with the wave count which at the
moment still appears to be a bit more
probable it is the scenario in which
obviously the wave four bottomed here on
the 5 fth of July I mean that's that's
the base case that sets the scene right
we have um substantial low in place on
the 5th of July that's the thesis and we
can make that assumption because we have
a five wave move up so we have Wave 1
wave two wave three this could have been
a wave four running flat with one more
high in the making which is now either
done or we might still extend a little
higher so I wouldn't I wouldn't rule out
um even in this yellow wave 1 which is
basically there's no evidence it's
completed right so we could still extend
a bit higher I wouldn't rule out that it
gets to 72k maybe even the next major
FIB level here at
72830 um let me just double check
something I thought that might have
changed a little bit or has it shifted a
bit let me just double check that
sometimes these things shift yeah it
shifted
bit just a little bit I'm not sure
why oh yeah shifted a bit let me just
double check let me just double check
the fibs sometimes either accidentally
or due to trading view glitch these
shift so we take the length of waves 1
to
three we go to the low of the wave four
and we're actually looking for the 61.8
extension okay 72,2
now pretty much um and then the
78.6 okay which is just below 75k I
think before it was before it was around
75k just surprised it shifted a
bit just double triple check that but no
that seems to be fine yeah okay shifted
a bit okay anyway it doesn't change much
the idea is still we could grind a bit
higher so that means around 72k there's
now a bit of a Confluence of resistance
and I wouldn't I wouldn't rule out that
um Bitcoin extends its wave one a little
bit higher so that would give us a
completed five-wave move we already have
a five wve move completed it could top
at any time what would be an initial top
for wave 1 so that we can watch for a
wave two also what we need to do we need
to adjust now with that additional high
that formed today the support zone for
Wave
2 Okay so if we have five waves up
completed again could top at any time um
but it's that's nothing here in terms of
price action doesn't confirm anything
but as soon as Wave 1 has stopped the
wave two could unfold and support is
56,7 37 to 63,0 270 which means as long
as we're holding
56.7k I'm bullish right and um any
pullbacks can be opportunities and the
yellow box supports the price in any
wave to pullback and it would be an ABC
structure but there's currently no
evidence that wave five of one has
started the earliest indication and I
also need to adjust here this micro
support to get this earliest signal so
the earliest indication that wave five
of one is complete would be a break
below the last swing low Saturday low
that formed at 66,800 so that should be
some structural support in that area but
yeah that would be the earliest evidence
earliest indication better would be a
break below the upper support region so
below
64.8k so got two confirmation levels
there and then we can watch the yellow
box yeah if they trigger and if the
price dips into the yellow box yeah this
would be an opportunity because the
market is bullish and pullbacks in Opp
in in uptrends can be you know great
opportunities so in the white count if
we continue to extend and break above 72
,200 here then we might already be in
the third of the third wave so that this
wave to in yellow actually already
bottomed on Thursday which is the
alternative count labeled alternative
even though it's also very likely and in
this count we already completed another
one two set up and we could now be in a
third wave stuck in the midst of a third
wave and the third of a third okay so
this is what I will think is going well
this is what I will view as more likely
if we break above that 61.8 extension at
72,1 180 and a break above the yeah
pretty much
74.8k level would confirm further that
the third wave is already unfolding and
if we get a break above that 78.6
extension at around 75k just below that
then I will take the yellow count of the
chart because then I don't think it's
reasonable to watch anymore for a deeper
wave two pull back and that's the
situation at the moment which means a
few levels that matter next breakout
point to the upside is the last swing
High here which is today's high where
the price got rejected at the resistance
line 70k then 72k these are the next
levels that really matter just above
that this 72.2k level which is the FIP
level and to the downside the Saturday
low is very important to give a first
indic that we've actually topped and
that level is at just to remind you
66.7k below that level
64831 should give you all the relevant
support levels that matter and
resistance levels and yeah at the moment
we just sort of stuck in a in a Range
just below a breakout point today the
price couldn't break out but that is not
a sell off you know that's just
minimally minimal price action stay on
the trend stay on the time frame where
you see the trend the trend is still up
up haven't topped yet even though I
think on the smaller time frames some
bearish divergences might be forming
here the 1 hour chart for
example
um really on the smallest time but that
is already in effect I mean that already
you had the Divergence
here and we're already coming down so
yeah so let's see if the price can hold
above that last swing
low and any break above 70k could send
us to 72 next overall bullish scenarios
only at the moment but pullbacks are I
think what a lot of people are waiting
for and they could offer opportunities
as I said yeah I will only really change
my perspective about this chart become
more bearish if a break below
56,7 37 occurs that's the update about
Bitcoin hope you like the update if you
did please hit a like button leave a
comment and subscribe and if you really
like the content then please check out
the channel membership also make sure
that you follow us on Instagram and
Twitter for additional content thanks a
lot for watching bye-bye
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