How Big Tech Ruined Farming

Summary

The script explores John Deere's transformation from a traditional tractor manufacturer to a leading technology company in robotics and AI. It discusses the company's evolution, embracing digital farming through innovations like the Starfire system and See & Spray technology. The narrative also touches on the implications of precision agriculture, the financial pressures on American farmers, and the potential future of autonomous farming systems, all while highlighting the broader impacts on rural economies and the farming industry.

Takeaways

• 🚜 John Deere's Shift: The company, historically known for manufacturing tractors and agricultural machinery, has transformed into a leading robotics and AI company, focusing on integrated technology solutions.
• 🌐 Tech Emphasis: John Deere's CEO, John May, emphasizes the company's use of advanced technologies like computer vision, machine learning, and data analytics, aligning with tech giants like Apple and Google.
• 📈 Job Transition: Reflecting its tech focus, John Deere is hiring more for software, data, and robotics roles in the US, with only a few positions remaining in traditional manufacturing.
• 🌱 Agricultural Solutions: John Deere's transition to a tech company is evident in its approach to farming, offering integrated production solutions that blend software, hardware, and services for farmers.
• 🛠️ Historical Innovations: The company's history includes significant agricultural innovations, such as the self-scouring steel plow and the adoption of gas-powered tractors, which revolutionized farming practices.
• 📊 Market Dominance: John Deere's influence in agriculture, particularly in America, is substantial, with the company holding a near-monopoly over the agricultural equipment market.
• 🛰️ Modern Advancements: The company's advancements in precision farming, such as the Starfire system, have significantly increased farming efficiency by reducing overlaps and optimizing field management.
• 💡 AI in Agriculture: John Deere's acquisition of Blue River Technology and the development of the See & Spray smart sprayer showcase the integration of AI and machine learning in farming equipment to reduce chemical usage and increase yield.
• 💸 Financial Considerations: The adoption of high-tech farming solutions comes with significant upfront costs, potentially making it more challenging for small-scale farmers and contributing to industry consolidation.
• 🔧 Right to Repair: John Deere has faced controversy over the right to repair, restricting access to diagnostic software and potentially increasing repair costs for farmers.
• 🌱 Future of Farming: The script suggests a future where farming is increasingly automated and data-driven, with John Deere aiming to develop a fully autonomous production system by 2030.

Q & A

Why was John Deere at the CES tech conference in 2023?

John Deere was at CES because, according to their CEO John May, the company has evolved into one of the world's leading robotics and AI companies, offering solutions that leverage advanced technology like computer vision, machine learning, and data analytics.

What does John Deere mean when they refer to themselves as a 'technology company'?

John Deere considers itself a technology company because they have transitioned from merely manufacturing tractors and agricultural equipment to developing integrated production solutions that combine software, hardware, and services, similar to how Apple integrates technology into an ecosystem.

How has John Deere been transforming its workforce in line with its tech focus?

John Deere has been laying off hundreds in its manufacturing plants while simultaneously staffing up its tech divisions. Out of fifteen current US job listings, twelve are for roles in software, data, or robotics, with only three in manufacturing.

What was John Deere's initial product that revolutionized agriculture in the American Midwest?

John Deere's initial revolutionary product was the self-scouring steel plow, which was more effective in the thick, moist, and rooty soil of the American Midwest compared to the traditional cast-iron plows of the time.

How did John Deere adapt to the shift from animal to mechanical power in farming?

John Deere initially tried to design their own gas-powered tractor but found it non-competitive. Instead, they bought their top competitor, the Waterloo Gasoline Engine Company, and their tractor, the Waterloo Boy, became very successful.

What is precision farming, and how did John Deere contribute to its development?

Precision farming is an approach that uses technology to increase the efficiency and productivity of farming operations. John Deere contributed by developing the Starfire system, which offered superior accuracy for field mapping and addressing the inefficiency of overlapping in planting and application of agricultural inputs.

What is the significance of the See & Spray technology developed by John Deere?

The See & Spray technology is significant because it uses deep learning algorithms to identify crops and weeds with high accuracy, allowing for targeted application of herbicides. This not only saves on chemical use but also reduces environmental impact by decreasing chemical drift and run-off.

How is the rise of big tech in farming affecting the American farmer?

The rise of big tech in farming is leading to increased efficiency and productivity, but it also comes with significant upfront costs and a shift away from traditional farming practices. This can result in financial strain and a loss of autonomy for farmers, who are increasingly reliant on technology and subscriptions.

What is the 'right to repair' controversy involving John Deere?

The 'right to repair' controversy involves John Deere's reluctance to provide farmers with access to diagnostic software needed for repairing their own equipment. Deere argues this is due to liability concerns, while the farming community sees it as a way to force them into costly repairs through authorized dealers.

How is the increasing efficiency and scale of farming operations impacting small farms?

The increasing efficiency and scale of farming operations are making it more challenging for small farms to compete. As larger farms benefit more from economies of scale and technological innovations, small farms face higher costs and pressures, leading to a trend of consolidation and the decline of family farms.

What is John Deere's vision for the future of farming with technology?

John Deere's vision for the future of farming includes fully autonomous production systems for crops like corn and soybean by 2030. This would involve every step from plowing to planting to harvest being carried out without direct human involvement, leveraging advancements in AI, machine learning, and automation.

Outlines

00:00

🚜 John Deere's Tech Transformation

John Deere, traditionally known for its agricultural machinery, is redefining itself as a leading robotics and AI company. CEO John May emphasizes their shift towards providing integrated technology solutions, much like tech giants Apple, Microsoft, and Google. Despite layoffs in manufacturing, John Deere is expanding its tech divisions, with most job listings focused on software, data, and robotics. The company's evolution from a small Illinois storefront to a tech powerhouse is highlighted, along with its current dominance in the agricultural sector, which is now influenced by its technological advancements.

05:02

🛠️ The Evolution of Farming Technology

This paragraph delves into the historical progression of farming technology, from the self-scouring steel plow that revolutionized midwestern agriculture to the rise of gas-powered tractors that replaced steam-powered and animal-powered alternatives. John Deere's strategic acquisition of Waterloo Gasoline Engine Company, which produced the successful Waterloo Boy tractor, is noted. The company's continuous transformation is highlighted, as it shifted from being an implement company to a machine company, and eventually to a provider of precision farming solutions that leveraged GPS and digital technology.

10:05

🌾 Precision Farming and Its Impact

The introduction of precision farming through technologies like GPS and yield mapping significantly improved farming efficiency by reducing overlap and waste in planting, fertilizing, and spraying. John Deere's development of the Starfire system, in collaboration with Stanford, NASA, and Navcom, provided highly accurate field mapping, which was a game-changer in addressing inefficiencies. The adoption rates of auto-steer and guidance systems have risen dramatically, reflecting the industry's shift towards precision farming.

15:07

💡 Innovations in AI-Driven Farming

John Deere's acquisition of Blue River Technology and the subsequent launch of the See & Spray smart sprayer exemplify the company's commitment to AI and machine learning in agriculture. The technology allows for precise identification and treatment of crops and weeds, reducing chemical use and environmental impact. The paragraph also discusses the broader implications of AI in farming, including the potential for fully autonomous farming systems by 2030.

20:09

🏭 The Changing Landscape of American Farming

The digital revolution in farming has brought about increased efficiency and productivity, but it has also led to financial pressures on American farmers. The high costs of adopting new technologies, such as the See & Spray system, and the subscription-based models for precision agriculture, are making farming an expensive necessity. The paragraph also touches on the intangible costs, such as the reliance on technology and the challenges faced by farmers in maintaining and repairing sophisticated equipment.

🌱 The Future of Farming and Its Challenges

John Deere's commitment to developing fully autonomous production systems by 2030 is set against the backdrop of a rapidly consolidating agricultural industry. The benefits of technological innovation come with significant upfront costs, which disproportionately affect smaller farms. The paragraph discusses the economic and cultural implications of big tech in farming, including the potential demise of the family farm and the broader impact on rural economies.

Keywords

💡John Deere

John Deere is a company historically known for manufacturing agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery. In the context of the video, it is highlighted as transitioning from a traditional machinery manufacturer to a leading robotics and AI company, integrating technology into its products to offer 'solutions' for modern farming.

💡Solutions

In the video, 'solutions' refers to the integrated offerings of technology, software, and services that companies like John Deere provide to address specific challenges or needs. The term is used to illustrate the shift from selling individual products to providing comprehensive systems that enhance efficiency and productivity, as seen with John Deere's approach to precision farming.

💡Precision Farming

Precision farming is a method of agriculture that leverages technology to optimize resources and yields. It involves the use of GPS and other technologies for accurate tracking and management of farming activities. The video discusses how John Deere has been at the forefront of this movement, with products like the Starfire system that offer high-accuracy mapping to reduce inefficiencies like overlapping in planting and spraying.

💡Technology Company

The term 'technology company' in the video is used to describe John Deere's rebranding and strategic shift towards embracing and developing advanced technologies. It underscores the company's evolution beyond traditional manufacturing to include AI, robotics, data analytics, and other tech-driven solutions in their agricultural machinery and practices.

💡Robotics

Robotics, as mentioned in the video in relation to John Deere, involves the design, manufacturing, and operation of robots. It is a key component of the company's transformation into a tech company, with applications in automated machinery and intelligent farming equipment that can perform tasks with precision and efficiency.

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

AI in the video refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines to perform tasks that usually require human-like decision-making. John Deere's adoption of AI is evident in products like the See & Spray technology, which uses deep learning algorithms to identify crops and weeds for targeted application of herbicides.

💡Data Analytics

Data analytics is the process of examining data sets to draw conclusions about the information they contain. In the context of the video, John Deere uses data analytics to enhance its solutions, providing farmers with insights that can improve farming practices and decision-making based on collected data.

💡See & Spray

See & Spray is a product developed by John Deere that integrates AI and machine learning to identify weeds and crops for targeted herbicide application. The video discusses how this technology reduces chemical use and environmental impact while improving farming efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

💡Right to Repair

The 'right to repair' movement, as touched upon in the video, advocates for consumers' ability to repair their own equipment, including agricultural machinery. It is a contentious issue with John Deere, which has been reluctant to provide farmers with the necessary diagnostic tools and software, thereby potentially increasing repair costs and dependence on authorized technicians.

💡Consolidation

Consolidation in the video refers to the trend of increasing farm size and the decline of small farms due to economic pressures and technological advancements. It highlights the impact of technological innovation on the agricultural industry, leading to larger, more efficient operations that can absorb the costs of new technology, often at the expense of smaller, family-owned farms.

💡Neural Networks

Neural networks are a subset of machine learning that are designed to recognize patterns and make decisions based on input data, similar to the way a human brain operates. The video explains how John Deere's See & Spray technology utilizes neural networks to analyze visual data and make instantaneous decisions about crop and weed identification.

Highlights

John Deere's CEO, John May, positions the company as one of the world's leading robotics and AI companies, emphasizing technological solutions in agriculture.

John Deere's transition from a traditional manufacturing company to a tech-focused entity, with a significant shift in job listings towards software, data, and robotics.

The company's historical evolution from a small Illinois storefront to a market-dominating force in agricultural technology.

Innovation of the self-scouring steel plow by John Deere, which played a crucial role in the expansion of agriculture in the American Midwest.

John Deere's strategic acquisition of the Waterloo Gasoline Engine Company, which propelled them into the tractor manufacturing business.

The introduction of precision farming with Rockwell International Corporation's Vision System, marking the beginning of the digital farming revolution.

Deere's development of the Starfire system, which significantly improved the accuracy of field mapping and reduced farming inefficiencies.

The impact of John Deere's Autotrac program on the adoption rates of auto-steer and guidance systems in agriculture.

Deere's acquisition of Blue River Technology and the introduction of See & Spray, a smart sprayer utilizing AI for precise weed identification and herbicide application.

The environmental benefits of See & Spray, including reduced chemical run-off and airborne drift, contributing to more sustainable farming practices.

The financial implications of adopting precision agriculture technologies for American farmers, highlighting the balance between upfront costs and long-term savings.

The changing role of the farmer due to precision agriculture, shifting from individual autonomy to reliance on technology and software subscriptions.

John Deere's stance in the right to repair debate, and the implications of restricted access to diagnostic software for farmers.

The influence of venture capital on agricultural technology startups, aiming to disrupt food production through technological innovation.

Deere's commitment to developing a fully autonomous production system for corn and soybean by 2030, showcasing the company's continued innovation in farming technology.

The economic and cultural impact of technological advancements in farming, including the trend of consolidation and the potential demise of the family farm.

An explanation of neural networks and their role in technologies like See & Spray, illustrating the application of AI in modern agriculture.

A promotional mention of Brilliant.org and its educational offerings on neural networks and other STEM subjects, highlighting the importance of continuous learning in technology and agriculture.

Transcripts

If you were in Las Vegas, in January 2023,  sitting in the audience of the opening keynote  

of CES—perhaps the most influential tech  conference in the world—you likely had one  

question on your mind: “Why is John Deere here?” After all, they’re the tractor company,  

right? They make machines that push and  pull and move and dig, that’s their thing,  

right? Well, not according to their CEO, John May. “We’ve quickly become one of the world’s leading  

robotics and AI companies. Our solutions  leverage technology like computer vision,  

advanced sensing and compute, machine  learning, and data analytics.” 

There’s one key word there: solutions. That’s a  word that gets thrown around a lot by companies  

like Apple “…solution…” “…solution…” “…  solution…”; Microsoft “…we provide an  

end-to-end tooling solution…” “…deceptively simple  solution…” “…the best end to end solution…”;  

Google “…bespoke AI solutions…” “open  sourcing solutions…” “…a great solution…”. 

This linguistic mimicry, their mere attendance  at an event like CES, it’s all… peculiar for a  

tractor company. Unless, does John Deere  think it’s a tech company? Well… yes,  

they do. At least according to themselves, in  this LinkedIn post, sharing an article entitled  

“John Deere: ‘We’re a Technology Company.’” And that assertion appears increasingly less  

absurd. While the company lays off hundreds in  its manufacturing plants, it’s simultaneously  

staffing up its tech divisions. Of fifteen current  US job listings, twelve are in software, data, or  

robotics—just three in manufacturing. The company  has been going through a metamorphosis from one  

that makes machines to one that makes solutions. Apple, for instance, does not merely make  

computers or phones or tablets. They  make integrated technology solutions,  

blending software, hardware, and services into an  ecosystem that envelops ones digital experience.  

Correspondingly, John Deere no longer merely  makes tractors or combines or loaders, but  

rather integrated production solutions—blending  software, hardware, and services into an ecosystem  

that envelops a farmer’s day-to-day experience. At the extremes, the company appears entirely  

disconnected from its original form as a  small Illinois storefront selling shovels and  

pitchforks. Never could John Deere himself have  imagined that his company would eventually go on  

to operate, for instance, a satellite network.  But waxing nostalgic about humble beginnings  

would mask what the company now truly is: it’s not  an endearing family business, it’s not a scrappy  

underdog, it’s a market-domineering behemoth. It  has the business of agriculture, especially in  

America, in a stranglehold. And so might Apple,  with consumer electronics, but farming is not  

something you pick up or put on. It’s not one’s  digital experience, it’s one's entire experience:  

it’s your job, it’s where you live, it’s what  your family does, it’s what your neighbors do,  

it’s what your descendants do, it is an all  encompassing way of life whose future is now being  

dictated by one tractor company that’s decided  it’s big tech. But John Deere’s power, their  

influence, their ability to change the course  of history has been centuries in the making. 

It started with this—the self-scouring  steel plow. Plows had existed in some form  

for millennia—so many millennia, in fact, that we  can’t even say how old they are—but by the 1800s,  

they’d been refined and refined into this: a  single-piece cast-iron plow. These could be  

pulled by an animal, and would efficiently loosen  the soil to bring nutrients to the surface before  

planting a fresh crop. And these worked great, for  the time, except for here—the American midwest.  

The soil of Illinois and its neighbors was thick,  moist, and rooty, in a fashion that would lead  

it to clump on the plow, forcing farmers to  stop every once in a while to clean it off. 

But John Deere had an idea: he  would manufacture the same plow,  

but of polished steel. This cut straight through  the midwestern ground with far greater ease, and  

the soil would shed right off rather than clump.  While he was not the first to invent this concept,  

he was the first to start manufacturing  a steel plow en masse, and his production  

steadily grew into the hundreds per month,  and a later thousands. This innovation played  

an instrumental part in spreading agriculture  across the region, and transformed John Deere  

from a mere shop into a growing manufacturer. By the turn of the century, after the company  

had passed through the generations of the family,  Deere had become a leading agricultural implements  

manufacturer, but the industry landscape was  changing beneath them. Like the plow, tractors  

as a concept, had long existed. Through the 19th  century it was typically animals like horse or  

oxen that pulled plows and other implements,  yet around the world, across industries, animal  

power was being replaced by steam power. Whereas  horse-drawn stagecoaches dominated the past, steam  

trains were now the dominant form of long-distance  transport, so the logic carried that steam-powered  

tractors could replace animal-power on farms.  And they certainly could, the technology existed,  

but steam-powered tractors never became ubiquitous  due to their high up-front and operating cost. 

But with the turn of the century came  gas-powered tractors: cheaper to buy,  

cheaper to operate. Popularity exploded, and while  Deere was originally reluctant to stray beyond  

their agricultural-implement core, they eventually  realized they had no choice if they wanted to  

stay relevant. They tried to design their own,  and it was plenty capable, but it was just not  

competitive. At about twice the price of that of  equivalent machines, their tractor never had any  

shot of commercial success, and then its designer  died from pneumonia following a week of testing in  

the wet and cold, so John Deere rather elected to  just simply buy their top competitor. With that,  

the Waterloo Gasoline Engine Company was folded  into John Deere, and over the following years,  

their tractor, the Waterloo Boy, enjoyed wild  success. Once again, like with the self-scouring  

steel plow, Deere didn’t invent the technology,  but they popularized it—they identified the  

opportunity, scaled up manufacturing, marketed  successfully, and helped transform the tractor  

from a niche, novel technology into the  solution for moving power on the farm. 

Over the decades that followed, the company  transformed again from primarily an implement  

company into a machine company—offering  combines and balers and planters and sprayers:  

essentially anything you needed to turn a field  into a farm. Through much of the 1900s they were  

always a significant, but underdog player in the  industry until the 60s and 70s when their primary  

competitor, International Harvester, began  to falter. And with its collapse in the 80s,  

John Deere took a firm lead in  the industry—becoming the go-to,  

ubiquitous source of agricultural equipment in the  United States. But then, another monumental shift  

in the field. Like the tractor introduced  the mechanical era of farming, information  

technology introduced farming to the digital age.  And again, John Deere had to adjust on the fly. 

This started on June 23, 1995 when Rockwell  International Corporation, traditionally a US  

defense manufacturer, unveiled its proprietary  Vision System—effectively firing the first shot  

of the digital farming revolution. It seems  so simple now, but Rockwell’s Vision System  

was poised to usher in a new age of efficiency by  using defense satellites to pinpoint and track a  

tractor from above, which, in turn, would allow  a farmer to better monitor their field’s yield,  

or when it came time to plant, better disperse  seeds and spray chemicals. Precision farming  

had arrived, and while Rockwell was first,  competitors such as Case Corporation, and Agco  

Corporation were close on the company’s heels. So too was Deere, which took it one step further.  

To the late-90s American farmer, GPS and precision  agriculture was a handy tool, but still a finicky,  

expensive, and difficult-to-use luxury.  It helped, but it wasn’t required. 

At least, not until Deere made it a practical  necessity. As they did when developing their  

tractor, Deere looked further afield  for help. This started at Stanford,  

where the company collaborated with engineers  to develop an autonomous GPS-controlled tractor.  

While it worked, it didn’t work well enough  to take to market. The problem was 1990s GPS  

just wasn’t accurate or dependable enough.  So, more partnerships. Now Deere, along with  

NavCom Technology and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab,  sought to figure out how to create a more reliable  

positioning system to support not just yield maps  but autonomous guiding—the former a helpful tool,  

the latter a potentially revolutionary product.  While autonomous guiding may have seemed a  

lofty ambition, its use case was well grounded. Before the rise of precision farming, farming was,  

well, remarkably imprecise. Take, for instance,  actually planting a field. Now, laying down seed  

is actually a rather complicated process with  a whole host of decisions to make and factors  

to consider from when to seed to how to establish  then plant the field’s headlands and borders. But  

regardless of such considerations—or what crop one  is even planting in the first place—each and every  

farmer, since the dawn of the tractor, has dealt  with one major inefficiency: overlap. In farming,  

overlapping is practically unavoidable—as  a tractor operator threads rows back and  

forth across their field, it’s nearly impossible  for there not to be slivers of field—whether it  

be where rows meet headlands, or just between  rows themselves—where the farmer doesn’t pass  

over a small section twice. And considering the  alternative—what farmers call sparing—this makes  

sense: if a farmer is to miss a small sliver  entirely while drilling, there will, of course  

be no crops, if they miss it with pesticides  or fertilizer, the section’s yield will drop,  

if they miss it during harvesting, well that’d  be an expensive and embarrassing mistake, too. 

So farmers overlap. But they try to do so as  little as possible. Experience helps with this, as  

hours in the chair, along with a long-established  sense of pride in maintaining straight rows,  

keeps overlap down. So too do generally normal,  rectangular fields, should a farmer have such a  

luxury. And then there are tricks: spray foams  to mark areas already hit, guideposts along  

fences for visual reference, thoughtfully laid out  tractor paths calibrated to align with the width  

of the farmer’s equipment. But tricks only go so  far. One study has put numbers on the overlaps.  

Across the study’s 17 locations and four years of  planting, the combine driller overlapped at 7.7%,  

spin disk fertilizer at 9.5%, while the sprayer  overlapped at 15.7%, and the cultivator reached  

19%. At every step of the process of growing  something, then, the farmer’s overlap is costing  

them—8% of their seed is being wasted, 10% of  their expensive fertilizer is being overapplied,  

nearly 16% in pesticide and herbicide is doing  more harm than good, and almost a fifth of their  

field is being turned over by the cultivator  for no reason. This means more materials. It  

also means more fuel, it means more time in the  field and in the chair, it means more hours put  

on the machines, and therefore more hours in  the shop and fewer functional seasons. Such  

costs really add up, too, as a bad year will see  costs outpace income, while 10 year averages, in  

the case of Kansas farms from 2010 to 2019, will  only net meager 11.8% profit margins. With such  

touchy and tight finances, unnecessarily wasting  8 to 19% of one’s time and money on overlapping  

is a massive inefficiency. One that Deere was  seeking to address at the dawn of a new century. 

The answer was called Starfire which, by  correcting notoriously inaccurate GPS data  

with ground location data, offered farmers field  mapping accurate to within 3 feet or 1 meter,  

rather than the 10-to-30 foot or three-to-ten  meter accuracy of traditional GPS. With further  

work on the product, by 2004, Starfire 2 provided  accuracy within 1.5 inches or 4.5 centimeters.  

Through the collaboration with Stanford, NASA,  and Navcom who they eventually acquired, Starfire  

positioned the company again on the cutting edge  of the precision farming revolution—not only  

did their product provide superior accuracy  for yield and seed mapping, it was accurate  

enough to address the fundamental inefficiency  of overlapping. Simply equip a machine with a  

Starfire receiver and a monitor then purchase  Deere’s Autotrac program and farmers could now  

guide by precise lines laid out on a screen and  even let the autonomous feature take the wheel. 

Today, through a combination of six uplink sites  on three continents, 46 reference sites around  

the globe, and leased bandwidth from Inmarsat  satellites, the shovel and pitchfork company  

is able to provide greater accuracy than the  public global positioning alternative, optimizing  

every single thread and turn across a farmer’s  field. The influence of such guidance can’t be  

understated. Only 10% of farmers used any sort of  auto steer and guidance system in 2004, but as of  

2019, those numbers stood in the mid 50 to 60%  range, and on bigger, thousand-acre farms where  

the economies of scale blunt the upfront cost and  the waste of overlap is only magnified, adoption  

rates of such systems have reached over 80%. By applying the same playbook they did with the  

plow and the tractor—embracing then perfecting  new technology through upfront R&D investment  

while also acquiring sector leaders like  Navcom—Deere helped push farming into a  

new epoch. But that epoch isn’t over, and Deere’s  only dug themselves further into the digital turn. 

Across the dozen American companies Deere has  acquired since 2007, only four are traditional  

hardware manufacturers, the rest, broadly, are in  tech, and increasingly in artificial intelligence,  

machine learning, and automation. In 2017, for  just north of $300 million, Deere purchased Blue  

River Technology, who had recently been testing  their new product called See & Spray—what they  

called the world’s first smart sprayer, which,  by feeding hundreds of thousands of plant images  

through deep learning algorithms was capable of  identifying crops and weeds before then spraying  

herbicide within a quarter-inch accuracy. Not  long after, Deere’s See & Spray Select entered  

the market. Then, in 2022, See & Spray Ultimate  became available for factory installation on 2023  

model 410R, 412R, and 612R Sprayers. With a camera  positioned along every meter of the carbon-fiber  

spray boom, the product would reduce spray volume  by two thirds, saving money on herbicides and, by  

extending trips between refills, saving time and  fuel. The benefits of the next step in precision  

agriculture also provided an environmental benefit  beyond the farmer too, as this product, the  

company projected, would reduce the airborne drift  of chemicals by up to 87% and chemical run-off by  

up to 93%. In this new era of AI and machine  learning precision farming, John Deere was not  

the first, as a Dyson subsidiary entered the smart  spray space earlier. Nor is it alone, as AgZen,  

a commercial outgrowth of MIT research, is pushing  into the space, too. Whether John Deere wins out  

here, as they have so many times in the past with  new technological innovations, remains to be seen,  

but given their history, it feels like a safe bet. Regardless of competition, though, this service,  

capable of plugging right into the broader  John Deere ecosystem, should be a boon for  

the American farmer conscious of cost, yield,  and overall environmental impact of their work.  

Or at least, that’s what it would seem. By standard metrics, farming in the US  

has gotten better across the sector’s  digital revolution—we’re wasting less,  

making better informed decisions,  and growing more than ever: just  

look at average yields for corn, soy, and cotton. But consider the position of the American farmer.  

In the past, being an all green farm—that is  running strictly John Deere equipment—was a point  

of pride. Today, though, it’s increasingly feeling  like an expensive necessity without alternatives.  

New-found hyper efficiency comes with a cost, or  really, a whole host of costs. Say an Illinois soy  

farmer is sizing up purchasing a See & Spray  attachment—well, first they’ll need to have a  

fairly new sprayer to begin with, which if they  don’t have, will be in the ballpark of $50,000.  

Then add on another $25,000 for equipment and  install, which can only be done at an authorized  

dealership. Still, given that soybean pesticides  have reached an all-time high this decade coming  

in at $77 per acre in 2022, and given that  this farmer owns the median sized farm for the  

state at 4,500 acres, considering scale, such an  upfront investment may well be worth it. Without  

See and Spray, pesticides would cost $350,000,  with the product, assuming it cuts spraying  

down to a third, the farmer would only need about  $117,000 in pesticides—so with upfront costs,  

savings total about $62,000. But then another  cost: See and Spray subscriptions cost $4 per  

acre so cut out another $18,000 and the  economics become slightly less appealing.  

And then there’s the less tangible costs. Fundamentally, precision agriculture is  

changing what it means to be a farmer. What was  once an occupation defined by individual autonomy,  

problem-solving, and improvisation is now  increasingly beholden to monitors, screens,  

software subscriptions, and the availability of  manufacturer-authorized technicians. Undoubtedly,  

this is an issue of nostalgia, but it  permeates in costly and frustrating ways too. 

Consider the solar storms that pushed northern  lights as far south as the American midwest. While  

it might’ve been a once in a lifetime experience  for the farmers who stayed up late to see it,  

it caused far more costly problems when the storm  knocked out their navigational systems. Just at  

the moment farmers needed to be out planting corn  their precision navigation systems failed them. 

While solar storms are few and far between,  issues with software programs and machinery  

that’s now more complicated than ever are far too  common and far too difficult to get figured out  

for your life-long farmer. Rather than hauling  a tractor back to the barn to fix a hydraulic  

leak and get back out on the field that same  day, when new-era hardware fails, there’s a  

good chance a farmer will be out of their depth  if it’s on the technology-side of the machine,  

which as the far more finicky side, it likely  is. So rather than fixing it and getting back  

out on the field, the farmer’s left waiting for  an authorized technician who will be expensive  

to pay and costly on time, as it’s unlikely  they’ll be available at the drop of a hat. 

And all that’s without considering whether the  farmer has the tools and information to make the  

fix in the first place—which is also a matter of  contention. Across the past decade, John Deere has  

found itself in the middle of a battle over the  right to repair. For those savvy enough or bold  

enough to fix their own issues, they often need  access to the diagnostic software to begin with,  

which is something Deere’s been slow to hand over.  Their stated reason to keep software restricted is  

a matter of liability and responsibility.  If they hand over the keys, they figure,  

their machines might get used and altered in  ways they shouldn’t. But for an increasingly  

boisterous farming community, this withholding  of key information is simply another way to make  

sure that farmer is also on the hook for costly  repair bills that make their way back to Deere,  

thus providing the company yet another revenue  stream. Regardless as to who is really telling  

the truth, what’s undeniable is that the  farmer is as financially squeezed as ever,  

and with the rise of big tech in farming, they are  increasingly being moved out of the driver’s seat. 

But Deere is facing their own financial  pressure—competition is rising, so they  

have to adapt to maintain their relevance. Over  the past decade, venture capital money has poured  

into startups that insist they can disrupt the  world of food production. Whereas in 2013 there  

were 42 funds focused on the AgriFood space,  today there are almost 300 reaching a peak  

of $53 billion of investment in 2021. A simple  thesis is presented to potential investors—the  

global share of land dedicated to agriculture is  peaking as more and more of the world urbanizes,  

yet simultaneously, the global population is  expected to continue increasing for at least  

half a century more. Therefore, it is objectively  true that we will have to produce more from less,  

and these startups believe the way to do  that is through technological innovation. 

Different companies have different solutions  to this problem—some are focused on “controlled  

environment agriculture,” growing indoors to  eliminate the threats and resource-losses from the  

outdoors; others are leveraging big data analytics  and machine learning to remove the inefficiencies  

of guesswork; while still others are working to  increase outdoor production yields and lower labor  

cost through various forms of autonomy. Building  on early successes in precision agriculture,  

John Deere has committed to developing a fully  autonomous production system for corn and soybean  

by 2030—that means every step from plowing  through planting through harvest without direct  

human involvement. And that’s remarkably  believable. Corn and soybean are planted  

in straight rows with relatively high distance  between each plant, meaning there’s already the  

predictability and margin for error that makes  it easiest for autonomous systems to succeed. 

The combination of innovations like  precision agriculture, indoor growing,  

autonomous production, and more will yield amazing  benefits for us all: in sum, they create a food  

production system that is less expensive and less  resource intensive. But they come at a cost—a very  

literal, incredibly significant, upfront cost. The economics of paying an exorbitant amount for  

a fully autonomous wheat production system work  out first for the absolute largest farms. Just  

as with See & Spray, every innovation promises to  improve efficiency by a certain, small percent,  

so the larger the overall operation, the  more valuable that small percent can be,  

and therefore the more likely the upfront cost  is worth it. So innovations can be worth it,  

but only if you grow a ton of food. This  has been true for a while—there have been  

greater and greater economies of scale  in agriculture—which has contributed to  

a long-term trend of consolidation. Over the past  25 years, the average size of an American farm has  

grown by 7% even as total farmland has declined  8%—as small farms face increasing cost-pressure  

by more-efficient big-ag operations, they  either shut down or sell their land to big ag. 

And as big tech encroaches into farming,  innovation is accelerating, which is great  

by itself, but this leaves the small family farm  behind. A layperson’s perception of farming,  

as a mom and pop living in a homestead in Kansas,  working the fields around, answering to no boss  

but themselves, is becoming a cinematic fiction. Increasingly, those living in regions dominated  

by agriculture work not for themselves, but  for landowners holding hundreds of thousands  

of acres. Often, the owners of this land  live time zones away, meaning profits from  

production are not spent at the local diner  or car dealership, but rather distributed to  

a multitude of investors and left to sit in  mutual funds. This contributes to a further  

gutting of the economy of rural America—one of the  rare ways to build a business outside of cities is  

becoming an increasing impossibility, and rural  resources are being extracted for urban gain. 

This is, in many ways, inevitable. Tech  innovation, across essentially any industry,  

has primarily benefited larger corporations  and incentivized consolidation. Farming,  

being so far from urban areas and so culturally  isolated from Silicon Valley, has long been  

shielded from these forces. Yet today, John Deere  and others have recognized the upside of bringing  

these two worlds together. But this progress will  hurt. The death of the family farm is upon us,  

and the autonomous tractor sits just beyond  the horizon, waiting to unleash its destructive  

ability to incrementally optimize yields. The reason why John Deere’s See & Spray  

technology is so powerful is that it’s able to  interpret visual information and make decisions  

on what a given plant needs in an instant, at  a huge scale. What makes this possible behind  

the scenes is a neural network—the software was  fed millions of images and taught to interpret  

them as a human would. Neural networks are  fascinating as they’re essentially recreating  

a brain in a digital environment, and they’re  also some of the most wide scale instances of  

machine-learning right now, so it’s worthwhile to  understand how they work. And for that, there’s  

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