Time & Price Algorithmic Trading: Economic Calendar

Summary

This lecture from the 2025 Trading Protocol series teaches traders how to use the economic calendar as a weekly roadmap to find high-probability, low-resistance liquidity runs. It explains the AMD framework (Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution) to anticipate news-driven volatility and shows how to identify whether an event will manipulate or distribute price based on whether a smart-money reversal is in place. The instructor gives five practical rules—avoid bank holidays, certain Mondays, the day before and the day of major releases (CPI, NFP, FOMC), and sessions immediately before high-impact news—and recommends planning each week every Sunday. Homework: collect 30 real examples.

Takeaways

• 📅 The economic calendar is a vital component of the environment selection protocol, serving as a roadmap to plan trading weeks in advance.
• 🗺️ Traders should use the economic calendar to identify high-probability trading sessions and avoid low-liquidity, choppy market conditions.
• 💥 News events act as volatility injections, creating opportunities for either manipulation (false moves) or distribution (true moves).
• 🔄 The AMD framework—Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution—explains how price moves before and after news events.
• 🕒 Price typically consolidates during accumulation, makes a false breakout during manipulation, and trends strongly in one direction during distribution.
• 📊 Market reactions to news can be predicted: if no smart money reversal has occurred before the event, expect manipulation; if a reversal has already happened, expect distribution.
• 🚫 Traders should avoid trading during low-probability periods, such as bank holidays, no-news Mondays (except CPI/NFP weeks), and the day before major events.
• ⏰ Avoid trading during a session right before a high-impact news release unless experienced and confident in anticipating a distribution setup.
• 🗓️ Every Sunday, traders should review the economic calendar to decide which days and sessions to trade, planning around high-impact news events.
• 🧠 Homework: collect 30 examples of planning trading weeks using the economic calendar and continue doing this weekly to build discipline and forecasting skill.

Q & A

What is the main goal of using the economic calendar in trading?

The main goal of using the economic calendar is to identify low-resistance liquidity runs, where price moves smoothly toward the target, and to avoid trading during choppy, low-probability conditions like the accumulation phase.

What does the AMD framework stand for, and how is it applied in trading?

AMD stands for Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution. In trading, the framework is used to identify market phases: Accumulation is when price consolidates, Manipulation is when a false move traps traders, and Distribution is when price moves in the true direction after manipulation.

How does news impact price movement, and how can traders use it to their advantage?

News events act as volatility injections that can either manipulate price before the event or distribute price after the event. Traders can use this by anticipating whether a news event will cause manipulation or distribution based on the market's behavior leading up to the event.

What is the significance of a smart money reversal in determining how the market will react to news?

If a smart money reversal has occurred before a high-impact news event, the market is likely to distribute after the news release. If no reversal has occurred, the news event is more likely to cause manipulation, with price moving in the opposite direction before settling.

Why should traders avoid trading on Mondays with no news, and what is the exception?

Traders should avoid trading on Mondays with no news because the lack of news increases the likelihood of accumulation (consolidation), which leads to choppy price action. The exception is during the weeks of CPI (Consumer Price Index) or NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) reports, when traders can trade before or after these events.

What are the dangers of trading right before high-impact news events, such as CPI, NFP, or FOMC?

Trading right before high-impact news events can be dangerous because price action is often erratic and manipulated, leading to a higher risk of unexpected losses. It's generally advised to avoid trading until after the news release, or to only trade if you anticipate distribution.

How can the economic calendar be used to plan a trading week effectively?

Traders should check the economic calendar every Sunday to plan their week. They can identify high-impact news events and avoid trading on days and sessions with low probability of success, such as those likely to be filled with accumulation or manipulation.

What should traders do if they want to trade before a major news release?

If a trader wants to trade before a major news release, they should only do so if a smart money reversal has already occurred. Otherwise, it's generally safer to wait for the news to be released to see if it causes manipulation or distribution.

What is the purpose of the homework assignment in this lecture?

The homework assignment encourages traders to practice using the economic calendar to plan their trading week. Traders should collect 30 examples of planning trades around the calendar, practicing identifying which days and sessions are optimal for trading.

How does the lecture suggest dealing with volatility and liquidity during news events?

The lecture advises that during high-impact news events, traders should avoid trading during accumulation phases and wait for news to either manipulate or distribute price. If traders anticipate distribution, they can trade after the news release; if manipulation is expected, they can trade post-manipulation.