7 Blunder Perang Dagang Amerika Serikat Lawan China + 1 Bonus #PerangDagang

Summary

In this video, Adeita explores the seven major blunders made by the United States in its trade war against China, highlighting how the strategy backfired and caused unintended consequences for both economies. Key points include the self-inflicted risks from protectionist policies, diplomatic failures, and misreading China's agility. The video also delves into the impact of these blunders on global supply chains, technology advancements, and shifting geopolitical landscapes. Additionally, Indonesian netizens' unexpected influence in global policy discussions is noted as a surprising bonus. Ultimately, the video highlights how global conflict in trade is reshaping the world order.

Takeaways

• 😀 The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese goods, which initially aimed to hurt China, but instead caused self-inflicted damage to American consumers and businesses, particularly in electric cars and medical devices.
• 😀 American protectionist policies, such as high tariffs, have raised consumer prices and pushed American companies like Ford and General Motors to reduce domestic investments.
• 😀 The U.S. misjudged the loyalty of its allies, like the European Union, Japan, and Canada, who did not fully support its trade war against China, exposing America's diplomatic vulnerability.
• 😀 U.S. tariffs extended to developing countries, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Mexico, triggering significant economic losses and a domino effect on global supply chains.
• 😀 Every 10% increase in tariffs on emerging markets could decrease their economic growth by 1.5%, which in turn reduces demand for American goods and exacerbates the global economic downturn.
• 😀 The U.S. underestimated China's supply chain flexibility, as China was able to shift its manufacturing operations to countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, maintaining its exports despite U.S. tariffs.
• 😀 The U.S. aimed to slow down China's technological advancements, but this pressure accelerated China's innovation, particularly in AI and semiconductors, creating forced innovation risks.
• 😀 The rise of Chinese nationalism in response to U.S. tariffs has made it harder for the U.S. to achieve its trade goals, with China retaliating against U.S. agriculture exports, especially soybeans and corn.
• 😀 China's growing influence has shifted the global geopolitical map, with the country strengthening its alliances through initiatives like BRICS and the Belt and Road, while reducing dependence on U.S. markets.
• 😀 The increasing impact of digital public opinion and social media, such as Indonesian netizens' role in global policy, signals the growing importance of reputational risk in modern geopolitical conflicts.

Q & A

What is the primary consequence of the U.S. raising tariffs on Chinese goods?

The primary consequence was that American consumers bore the brunt of higher prices, with costs rising by 1-1.5% for every 10% tariff increase. This led to inflation and pushed the U.S. closer to a recession.

Why did the U.S. assume its allies would support it in the trade war, and what happened instead?

The U.S. assumed its allies like the European Union, Japan, and Canada would support its tariffs on China. However, these countries prioritized their own interests, imposing their own tariffs on U.S. goods and continuing to trade with China, weakening America's position.

How did the trade war's tariffs affect developing countries?

The tariffs extended beyond China to developing countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Mexico, which faced economic losses, such as a $2.1 billion decline in Indonesian textile exports, and required financial intervention to stabilize their economies.

What was the misconception about China’s supply chain in the trade war?

The U.S. expected that high tariffs would disrupt China’s supply chain, but China adapted by shifting production to other countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. This resulted in higher global logistics costs and raised consumer prices in the U.S.

How did the U.S. tech embargoes backfire against China?

The U.S. embargoes, including restrictions on Huawei and semiconductor chips, led to China accelerating its own technology development, notably producing the Kirin 9000s chipset and making significant strides in AI research, which surpassed expectations.

What role did Chinese nationalism play in the trade war?

Instead of weakening China, American tariffs helped strengthen Chinese nationalism. The Chinese government retaliated by imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and corn, and public support for the government increased under external pressure.

What is the significance of the geopolitical shifts during the trade war?

The U.S. failed to recognize the global shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world. China strengthened its alliances with countries in the BRICS bloc and expanded its Belt and Road Initiative, reducing its reliance on the U.S. and increasing influence in other regions.

What was the unexpected bonus blunder involving Indonesian netizens?

Indonesian netizens reacted strongly to an American trade report criticizing the Indonesian payment system. Their digital outcry led to a discussion about national sovereignty and the power of public opinion in shaping global policy.

How does the concept of 'reputational risk' come into play in the trade war?

Reputational risk refers to the potential damage to a country's global standing, which can be influenced by social media narratives. In the trade war, both American and Chinese national identities were reinforced through digital platforms, showing the growing power of public opinion.

What lesson can global companies learn from the U.S.'s trade war strategies?

Global companies should be aware of the risks of protectionist policies and the impact of systemic spillover. They must also recognize the importance of understanding local sentiments, geopolitical shifts, and supply chain flexibility to mitigate risks in such global conflicts.