La toma de decisiones, teoria

Summary

The video explores decision-making theories, focusing on rationality, bounded rationality, and intuition. It examines structured and unstructured problems and the types of decisions they require, highlighting programmed and non-programmed decisions. The script covers scenarios of certainty, risk, and uncertainty in decision-making, offering insights into various managerial styles: directive, analytical, conceptual, and behavioral. It also outlines common biases in decision-making, such as overconfidence and anchoring, and provides tips for improving decision-making, including focusing on key factors, being logical, gathering necessary information, and being flexible and consistent.

Takeaways

• 😀 Rational decision-making involves logical, consistent choices aimed at maximizing value within specific constraints.
• 😀 Bounded rationality recognizes that decision-making is limited by an individual's ability to process information, leading to satisfactory rather than optimal solutions.
• 😀 Intuitive decision-making relies on experience, emotions, and accumulated judgment to make choices quickly and without detailed analysis.
• 😀 Structured problems are clear, simple, and routine, often requiring programmed decisions, such as customer complaints or inventory issues.
• 😀 Unstructured problems are new, complex, and lack clear solutions, requiring non-programmed decisions, such as opening a new plant or outsourcing.
• 😀 As one ascends in an organization, problems become less structured, and decisions become less programmed and more unique.
• 😀 In decision-making, certainty means knowing the outcome of all alternatives, risk involves probabilities of outcomes, and uncertainty occurs when outcomes are unknown and probabilities cannot be reasonably calculated.
• 😀 The decision-making process involves varying degrees of tolerance to ambiguity and can be rational or intuitive, leading to different decision-making styles.
• 😀 Decision-making styles include directorial (low tolerance for ambiguity, quick decisions), analytical (high tolerance, uses more information), conceptual (intuitive, long-term focus), and behavioral (intuitive, focused on teamwork).
• 😀 Common decision-making biases include overconfidence, immediate satisfaction, anchoring effects, selective perception, and confirmation bias, which can distort judgment.
• 😀 To improve decision-making, focus on what's important, be logical and consistent, gather necessary information, and blend objective and subjective analysis for better outcomes.

Q & A

What are the three main theories of decision-making mentioned in the script?

The three main theories of decision-making mentioned are: rational decision-making, bounded rationality, and intuition.

How does rational decision-making work in the context of organizations?

In rational decision-making, decisions are made logically and consistently to maximize value within specific constraints. The process assumes that the problem is clearly defined, there are known options, preferences are stable, and there are no time or cost restrictions.

What is bounded rationality in decision-making?

Bounded rationality refers to decision-making that is rational but limited by an individual's ability or inability to process all information. The decisions made are satisfactory rather than optimal due to limited resources or time.

What factors influence intuitive decision-making?

Intuitive decision-making is influenced by factors such as experience, knowledge, skills, unconscious mental processes, emotions, ethical values, culture, and other aspects of human behavior.

What is the difference between structured and unstructured problems?

Structured problems are simple, easy to define, and have clear goals with easily gathered information. Unstructured problems are new, not previously encountered, and have ambiguous or incomplete information.

How does the level of organization impact decision-making?

As one moves up in an organization, the problems become less structured, and the decisions made are less programmed. Higher levels require more unique, non-programmed decisions.

What are the conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty in decision-making?

In certainty, decision-makers know the outcomes of all alternatives. In risk, they can estimate the probabilities of outcomes. In uncertainty, the probabilities of outcomes cannot be calculated reasonably.

What is an example of a decision taken under conditions of uncertainty?

An example is choosing a strategy where the sales range depends on competitor actions. For instance, choosing strategy S4 could lead to sales between 6 and 18, depending on the competitor's action.

What are the four decision-making styles outlined in the script?

The four decision-making styles are: directorial (low ambiguity tolerance, rational thinking), analytical (high ambiguity tolerance, rational thinking), conceptual (high ambiguity tolerance, intuitive thinking), and behavioral (low ambiguity tolerance, intuitive thinking).

What are some common biases and errors in decision-making?

Some common biases include overconfidence, immediate gratification, anchoring effect, selective perception, confirmation bias, contextualization bias, availability bias, representativeness bias, and egoism.

What are some strategies to improve the decision-making process?

To improve decision-making, focus on what’s important, be logical and consistent, gather all necessary information, combine both objective and subjective thinking, and remain flexible and confident when making decisions.