Eyes on India Stocks, Mexico Yields in EM Space, Says JPMorgan's Zief
Summary
TLDRこのビデオスクリプトでは、エマージングマーケットにおける投資のアプローチとそれに関連する特定の国々の状況が議論されています。インドとメキシコは特に注目されており、インド株式は中国株式と比較して魅力的であると評価されています。メキシコは選挙の結果にもかかわらず、インフレ調整されたリターンの観点から見たときに優れた投資先とされています。一方で、米ドルや英国ポンドに対する政治リスクは低いと見なされており、経済成長が向上していることと中央銀行の利上げが必要なさから、市場の不安定性は低くなっています。
Takeaways
- 🌐 重要なポイントは、プライベートバンクがEM(新興市場)に広範な配分を必要としないことです。構造的で長期的なストーリーを特定し、顧客に魅力的なリターンを提供することが重要です。
- 📈 インドはアジアにおいて顧客にとって良い株式への露出を提供するEMの一つであり、特に中国株式と比較して注目されています。
- 💼 メキシコは選挙を通じて非常に高い流動性を提供しており、実質リターンの観点からは最も優れた場所の一つとされています。
- 📉 南アフリカは債券の名目リターンが最も高いとされていますが、メキシコは実質リターンが最も高いと注目されています。
- 🇺🇸 米ドルは国内の政治に非常に脆弱であるとされていますが、選挙直後のリスクプレミアムの増加は今のところ見られていません。
- 💹 米ドルが弱まる理由として、経済が遅くなるか、連邦準備システムが利下げサイクルに入るという周期的な理由が考えられます。
- 💷 英ポンドは選挙の結果にかかわらず、財政的制約を受けるであろうと予想されており、選挙結果自体がポンドを動かすとは限りません。
- 🇫🇷 フランスは財政赤字の懸念から信用格付けが低下し、米国においても同様の問題が存在していますが、市場はそれには反応しておらず、資金の流れも変化していないとされています。
- 🇬🇧 英国の次期政府は財政収縮を望むとされており、選挙結果にかかわらず財政拡大は見込まれていません。
- 🌍 米ドルは世界金融システムの中心であり、他の国と比較してはるかに長い余裕を持って財政赤字を抱えているとされています。
- 📊 市場における変動性は、世界経済の成長が向上し、労働市場が冷却し、インフレーションが下がる中で低下しています。
Q & A
エマージングマーケットにおける投資のアプローチはどのようなものですか?
-エマージングマーケットへの投資では、広範囲にわたる投資ではなく、長期的または構造的なストーリーを特定し、顧客に魅力的なリターンを提供する国を特定することが重要です。
インドと中国の株式市場を比較すると、どのような違いがありますか?
-インドの株式市場は、中国の株式市場と比較して顧客にとって非常に良い株式露出を提供していると思われます。
メキシコの債務市場はどのような特徴を持っていますか?
-メキシコは非常に高い流動性を提供する場所であり、実効的なリターン率が高いと言えます。
南アフリカの債務市場はどのような状況ですか?
-南アフリカは名目上の債券のリターン(または利回り)が最も高い国ですが、メキシコの方が実効的なリターンが最も高いとされています。
メキシコの選挙はどのように債務市場に影響を与えると予想されていますか?
-選挙の結果は、メキシコの非常にポジティブなストーリーから脱線するようなものではないと見られています。
米ドルは国内の政治に対してどれほど脆弱ですか?
-米ドルは成長予測や金利差によるモデルに基づいて現在は強すぎると見られていますが、政治リスクプレミアムが増加するとすぐにそれは反転すると予想されます。
フランスの財政赤字の評価低下はどのように市場に影響を与えると予想されますか?
-市場は現在、フランスの財政赤字に関する懸念を示していないようですが、長期的には財政軌道が懸念される可能性があります。
イギリスの選挙が7月4日に行われるという前提で、労働党がどれほどの少数の勝利を収めればポンドに影響を与えるでしょうか?
-選挙の結果にかかわらず、イギリスの次期政府は財政的に非常に制約されると予想されており、政治的な勝利自体がポンドに影響を与えるとは考えられていません。
現在の低ボラティリティの状況はなぜ発生していますか?
-グローバル経済成長が向上しており、労働市場が冷却し、インフレーションが下がっているため、中央銀行がレートを引き上げることはありません。そのため、市場のボラティリティが低くなっていると言えます。
グローバル経済成長が低下した場合、市場へのボラティリティはどのように変化するでしょうか?
-もしグローバル経済成長が実際に低下した場合、市場へのボラティリティが持続的に注入される可能性があります。
Outlines
🌐 新興市場への投資戦略
第1段落では、プライベートバンクが新興市場(EM)への投資に取るアプローチが議論されています。彼らは新興市場を一概に扱うのではなく、長期的で構造的なストーリーを見つけ、クライアントに魅力的なリターンを提供することを重視しています。特にアジアにおいては、インドの株式市場が優れた投資先と見なされています。また、メキシコは選挙を通じて非常に高い流動性と実質リターンを提供していると評価されています。しかし、政治リスクがドルに与える影響についても注意を払い、選挙後に増やされる可能性のある財政リスクプレミアムに注意を払います。
💵 アメリカの財政赤字とドルの強さ
第2段落では、アメリカの財政赤字が市場に与える影響について語られています。アメリカは世界金融システムの中心に位置しており、ドルは世界外貨準備の80%以上、金融取引の大部分、貿易の60%以上がドルで行われているため、他の国と同じ財政赤字レベルでは異なる扱いを受けています。アメリカは財政赤字に対する懸念を抱いているものの、市場はまだドルに対するリスクプレミアムを築く兆しを見せません。しかし、経済が減速し、連邦準備制度が利下げサイクルに入ると、ドルは弱まる可能性があると見ています。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡EM(新興市場)
💡構造的成長ストーリー
💡インフレ調整リターン
💡メキシコ
💡リアルリターン
💡米ドル
💡選挙リスクプレミアム
💡財政赤字
💡イギリス鎊
💡経済成長
💡変動性
Highlights
The private bank emphasizes the importance of not painting emerging markets (EM) with a broad brush, advocating for a targeted approach.
Identifying long-term or structural stories in EM that offer attractive returns is a key strategy for the private bank.
India is highlighted as an area in EM offering good equity exposure, especially when compared to Chinese equities.
In the bond space, Mexico is noted for its high liquidity and real returns on bonds, which are of particular interest.
The recent elections in Mexico are being monitored for any potential impact on the positive real return story.
The US dollar's vulnerability to domestic politics is being closely watched, with no current signs of increased risk premium.
Fundamentals suggest the US dollar may be 5-10% too strong, but a political risk premium could change this assessment.
A weakening of the US dollar is more likely due to cyclical reasons, such as a slowdown in the US economy or Fed interest rate cuts.
The central role of the US dollar in the global financial system provides the US with longer leeway on fiscal deficits compared to other countries.
The UK's twin deficit situation is similar to the US, but market reactions may differ due to the dollar's global dominance.
The upcoming UK election and potential Labour victory are not expected to significantly impact the pound based on current polling and market expectations.
Fiscal constraints are expected for the next UK government, with little expectation for fiscal expansion.
Current market conditions do not indicate a risk premium build-up in the pound in relation to the upcoming elections.
Low volatility in monetary policy is attributed to improving global growth and reduced tail risks to the economy.
A significant downturn in global growth could be a factor that introduces volatility into the markets.
Transcripts
Broadly on AM. And there are some idiosyncratic stories
that we I'm unpacking that around Mexico, India, South Africa.
Is there an appetite amongst your clients and your colleagues to get more
exposure broadly to em, or has the door closed to that trade?
I think the most important thing that we think about at the private bank is not
painting em with a broad brush that you don't have to have a very large
allocation across every single country in the EM.
And when we think about it, we really try and identify the stories that we
think are longer term or structural and that offer our clients kind of very
attractive returns, whether it be from the equity space or from the bond space.
And importantly, because of the countries that we're talking about
today, it's really inflation adjusted returns.
And so India, I would say, if we're thinking about Asia, is one of those
areas in emerging markets that we do think offers our clients really good
equity exposure, particularly for thinking about Indian equities versus
Chinese equities. We've been looking at that relative
value for a long time. When I think about the effects in bond
space and we're thinking about the countries that we're talking about
today, I had elections. Mexico is a place that offers very, very
high liquidity. You mentioned that South Africa has the
highest nominal returns on its bonds or yields, but Mexico has the highest real
returns on its bonds. And that's what we really care about
from an effects and bonds perspective, where we've been watching the election
has really been at least from that perspective.
Is there anything being injected into the situation that is going to derail
what's already a very positive story from a real return perspective in
Mexico? Everything that we've seen at least over
the weekend is a no. So we continue to think that Mexico, at
least from again, inflation adjusted returns and perspective, is one of the
best places to be in emerging markets if you're looking for those opportunities
in. Yeah, well, as we're talking politics
then how vulnerable is the US dollar to domestic politics, to US politics.
So we we do watch this very, very closely and there's a couple of ways
that we can try and identify if there's any risk premium being built up in US
assets ahead of the election. As of right now, if we think about just
modeling the dollar against growth expectations or interest rate
differentials, the fundamentals that should dictate that.
If anything, the dollar looks maybe five, 10% to strong on those metrics.
We'd expect that to really invert if all of a sudden there was increased fiscal
risk premium or any type of political risk premia in the dollar.
And so as of now, no, we're not really seeing anything like that.
We do pay attention to it. If the dollar is going to weaken in our
minds, it's going to be because of cyclical reasons.
The US economy slows, the Fed interest rate cutting cycle really comes into
view. We think that can happen for cyclical
reasons, but to us that's kind of a late 20, 24 into 2025 story, not so much over
the summer. All right.
Let's bring it back to the in the G10 story, if if we can.
We're talking about the dollar. We're talking about it being at the whim
of these elections. I'm obsessed, though, with the the
deficit story we saw with France getting downgraded on Friday, really talking
about this budget deficit looming over their economy.
Yeah, it's a similar story in the states, especially post-election.
It's the first thing that comes up for the new president.
I'm curious why the market isn't reacting to or perhaps is in terms of
fund flows. What does that look like?
Yeah, it's one thing to say that the US fiscal
trajectory is concerning, maybe unsustainable, if I can use that over a
very long term horizon. But the dollar, you can't deny it, is at
the very center of the global financial system.
And so whether we look at the dollar share of global foreign exchange
reserves, over 80% of financial transactions just globally are conducted
in dollars. 60% of global trade is invoiced in
dollars because of the dollar central role of
the financial system, the US gets a much longer leeway, right, For maybe in
another country that had the same level of fiscal deficit, the same external
deficit. If we think about that twin deficit in
the UK, it looks very similar to the US, but we probably see those types of
concerns start to show up in the UK before we start to see it in the US
because of the US dollars role in the financial system.
And so those are the types of things that we're trying to kind of pass as we
as we look at this for our clients. So I'm glad you brought us neatly onto
the UK. I'm assuming you are assuming it's going
to be a Labor victory on July the fourth.
I'm wondering how small a majority the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, would need
to win in order to knock the pound. So I don't presume to know anything
about it, but the polling certainly looks in that direction.
Look, I do. I just think that the next government in
the UK, regardless of who it ends up being, is going to be very fiscally
constraint. Right.
And I think those are kind of the lessons of the scars learned from what
we saw in the fall of 2022. And so we're really not expecting much
in terms of fiscal expansion. If anything, there will probably be some
fiscal consolidation. I don't think the political victory one
way or the other is going to knock the pound right.
What we're really focused on, I could apply the same type of analysis that we
look at for the dollar. Are we starting to see signs that the
pound is trading either weak relative to fundamentals or vice versa?
And no, the pound looks almost exactly at fair value when we think about cable
based on interest rate differentials in global equities.
If we started to see some of that premium start to build up, then that
would tell us something about what the market thinks a Labour victory might
mean versus a Conservative victory. But honestly, the polls have been so
consistent and the fact. I mean, I don't think I'm going out on a
limb by saying that the polls have been so consistent that the market's base
case is probably a Labor victory. And still you have not seen any signs of
risk premium build up in the currency. Is that the reason, though, for this low
vol dynamic we're seeing in broadly monetary policy?
It seems to be on ice elections. We're waiting for them to roll out.
Even if there are volatility in the elections, there's really no room in
budgets to do anything. What changes the vol picture?
In fact, I think it's it's global growth, to be honest.
Right? If we think about what's happening in
the global economy, there's really two things.
One, global growth is actually improving.
Even though rates are at these levels. Global growth is kind of based from the
second half of last year and is improving.
And what we tend to see when global growth is strong is volatility is low.
At the same point, the tail risks to the global economy are really coming in.
So you have strong growth, but because labor markets are cooling and inflation
is coming down, there's no need for central banks to hike rates and
destabilise it from the right tail. And so you have the left and the right
tail coming down, right. If something was going to inject
volatility, I think sustainably into markets, I think it would be a real
significant pull down in global growth.
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