Mewaspadai Dampak Pelemahan Nilai Tukar Rupiah | IDX CHANNEL

Summary

The video explores Indonesia's economic challenges amidst a weakening Rupiah, rising inflation, and the global economic uncertainty. Experts discuss the impact on exporters, particularly in industries like textiles, as costs rise due to currency fluctuations and high logistics expenses. Government policies and external factors, such as geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics, are also scrutinized. With fiscal deficits projected to grow and potential new taxes looming, the video highlights the urgent need for strategic economic measures to stabilize the Rupiah and support local businesses in the face of these pressures.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Rupiah has experienced significant weakening against the US Dollar, reaching levels near IDR 16,000, a situation driven by both global economic factors and domestic challenges.
• 😀 Geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, have contributed to the strengthening of the US Dollar, with investors seeking safer assets.
• 😀 Domestic economic pressures, including rising inflation and trade imbalances, have added to the volatility of the Rupiah.
• 😀 Exporters are benefitting from a weaker Rupiah, especially those whose exports rely on local raw materials, but manufacturing firms dependent on imported raw materials are facing challenges due to currency fluctuations.
• 😀 The ongoing trade war between the US and China, along with inward-looking policies in the US under President Donald Trump, have had a lasting impact on global economic stability.
• 😀 Indonesia's PMI for manufacturing has been declining, signaling potential contraction in the sector, with the country's textiles industry particularly struggling.
• 😀 Rising logistics costs, both for importing raw materials and exporting finished goods, have increased operational costs for Indonesian businesses, especially compared to neighboring countries like Vietnam and Thailand.
• 😀 Efforts to use local currencies in trade agreements with countries like China and other ASEAN nations have been implemented to reduce reliance on the US Dollar, offering some stability to exporters.
• 😀 Domestic economic measures, such as the increase in VAT to 12%, could further strain households and businesses, particularly affecting the middle and lower classes, which may impact domestic consumption and, in turn, the overall economy.
• 😀 The government is urged to address both domestic economic fundamentals, such as inflation and fiscal policy, and improve infrastructure, especially in logistics, to ensure competitiveness in global markets.

Q & A

What is the main concern about the Indonesian Rupiah's performance in 2024?

The main concern is the continued depreciation of the Rupiah against the US Dollar. As of December 2024, the Rupiah has approached the IDR 16,000 per USD mark, which could exacerbate Indonesia's economic challenges, including increasing the costs of imports and the government’s debt obligations.

What factors are driving the weakening of the Rupiah?

The weakening Rupiah is primarily driven by global economic factors, such as geopolitical tensions (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine war), trade conflicts between the US and China, and the inward-focused policies of the US. Domestically, Indonesia's economic difficulties, including rising taxes and fiscal pressures, are contributing to the currency's depreciation.

How does the depreciation of the Rupiah affect Indonesian businesses?

For exporters, the depreciation could be beneficial if they are able to sell products abroad at higher prices. However, businesses that rely on imported raw materials or foreign loans are facing increased costs, which could hurt profitability. Additionally, exchange rate fluctuations create risks for companies dealing with foreign contracts.

What role does Bank Indonesia play in stabilizing the Rupiah?

Bank Indonesia's role is to maintain monetary stability by keeping the benchmark interest rate at 6% to attract foreign investment and stabilize the Rupiah. However, higher interest rates can also increase government debt servicing costs, which could complicate fiscal management.

What are the major fiscal challenges for Indonesia in 2025?

Indonesia faces significant fiscal challenges in 2025, including a high national debt burden. The government is expected to pay over IDR 1,350 trillion in debt repayments and interest, and the fiscal deficit could exceed the projected IDR 600 trillion, potentially violating the 3% of GDP deficit rule.

What impact do rising taxes and new policies have on the Indonesian economy?

Rising taxes, such as the new 12% VAT and other policies like the BPJS contributions and fuel price increases, are putting additional pressure on lower-income households, particularly in the middle and lower classes. This could reduce domestic consumption and increase the risk of inflation.

How are Indonesian companies coping with currency fluctuations?

To mitigate the risks of currency fluctuations, some Indonesian companies are shifting to local currency transactions, particularly with neighboring countries like China and ASEAN nations. This strategy reduces dependency on the US Dollar and helps to stabilize their operations in volatile exchange rate environments.

What are the implications of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector performance in 2024?

The Indonesian manufacturing sector is struggling, as indicated by the declining Manufacturing PMI, which has been in contraction since mid-2024. The sector faces rising logistics costs, weak domestic demand, and increased competition from cheaper imports, leading to challenges for industrial growth and employment.

What fiscal strategies are recommended for the Indonesian government to maintain economic stability?

The Indonesian government is advised to carefully manage fiscal and monetary policies to balance economic growth with debt management. It needs to address structural issues in key sectors like manufacturing and export, reduce logistical costs, and provide targeted support for businesses that are facing competitive pressures.

What are the expectations for the Rupiah’s performance in the near future?

The Rupiah is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the possibility of hitting or exceeding the IDR 16,000 mark against the USD. The government and central bank need to take active steps to mitigate the risks of further depreciation, particularly given the rising fiscal deficit and debt obligations.